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Nonlinear Phillips Curves, Complex Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Keynesian Macro Model

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Abstract

In the framework of a Keynesian monetary macro model we study implications of kinked Phillips curves and alternative monetary policy rules. As alternative monetary policy rules we consider monetary growth targeting and interest rate targeting (the Taylor rule). Our monetary macro model exhibits: asset market clearing, disequilibrium in product and labor markets, sluggish price and quantity adjustments, two Phillips-Curves for wage and price dynamics, and a combination of medium-run adaptive and short-run forward looking expectations. Simulations of the model with our estimated parameters reveal global instability of its steady state. We show that monetary policy can stabilize the dynamics to some extent and that, in addition, an institutionally given kink in the money wage Phillips-Curve (downwardly rigid wages) represents a powerful mechanism for getting bounded, more or less irregular fluctuations in the place of purely explosive ones. The resulting fluctuations can be reduced in their size by choosing the parameters of monetary policy within a certain corridor, the exact position of which may however be very uncertain.

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  • Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Gang Gong & Willi Semmler, 2002. "Nonlinear Phillips Curves, Complex Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Keynesian Macro Model," Working Paper Series 120, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:120
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    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp120.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil, 2007. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Economic Response to Exogenous Shocks," Working Papers 2007.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June.
    3. Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel, 2011. "Worker debt, default ans diversity of financial fragility," IMK Working Paper 5-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter, 2013. "Workers’ debt, default and the diversity of financial fragilities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 48-65.
    5. de Sá, Rodrigo & Savino Portugal, Marcelo, 2015. "Central bank and asymmetric preferences: An application of sieve estimators to the U.S. and Brazil," MPRA Paper 72746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hiroki Murakami, 2016. "Alternative monetary policies and economic stability in a medium-term Keynesian model," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 323-362, December.
    7. Toichiro Asada & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Keynes-Metzler-Goodwin Model Building: The Closed Economy," Working Paper Series 124, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2007. "Time-varying long-range dependence in US interest rates," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 360-367.
    9. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael & Dumas, Patrice & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2008. "Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-77, July.
    10. GONG Gang & GAO Jian, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June.
    11. de Sá, Rodrigo & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2015. "Central bank and asymmetric preferences: An application of sieve estimators to the U.S. and Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 72-83.
    12. Jian Gao & Gang Gong & Xue-Zhong He, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regime: Proposal for a Small and Less Developed Economy," Research Paper Series 199, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    13. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2005. "Interactions d'échelles en économie : Application à l'évaluation intégré des dommages du changement climatique et des événements extrêmes," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00008712, HAL.
    14. Murakami, Hiroki & Asada, Toichiro, 2018. "Inflation-deflation expectations and economic stability in a Kaleckian system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 183-201.
    15. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Peiyuan Zhu, 2003. "The Structure of Keynesian Macrodynamics: A Framework for Future Research," Working Paper Series 129, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2006. "The Independent Monetary Policy under the Fixed Exchange Regime," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 517, Society for Computational Economics.

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