Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fisisi/s72013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power

Author

Listed:
  • Duscha, Vicki
  • Schumacher, Katja
  • Schleich, Joachim
  • Buisson, Pierre

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of a global phase-out of nuclear energy on the costs of meeting international climate policy targets for 2020. The analyses are based on simulations with a global energy systems model. The phase-out of nuclear power increases greenhouse gas emissions by 2% globally, and 7% for Annex I countries. The price of certificates increases by 24% and total compli-ance costs of Annex I countries rise by 28%. Compliance costs increase the most for Japan (+58%) and the USA (+28%). China, India and Russia benefit from a global nuclear phase-out because revenues from higher trading volumes of certificates outweigh the costs of losing nuclear power as a mitigation option. Even for countries that face a relatively large increase in compliance costs, such as Japan, the nuclear phase-out implies a relatively small overall economic burden. When trading of certificates is available only to countries that committed to a second Kyoto period, the nuclear phase-out results in a larger increase in the compliance costs for the group of Annex I countries (but not for the EU and Australia). Results from sensitivity analyses suggest that our findings are fairly robust to alternative burden-sharing schemes and emission target levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Duscha, Vicki & Schumacher, Katja & Schleich, Joachim & Buisson, Pierre, 2013. "Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S7/2013, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s72013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/87730/1/770859879.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carraro, Carlo & Massetti, Emanuele, 2012. "Energy and climate change in China," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 689-713, December.
    2. Hallegatte, Stephane & Heal, Geoffrey & Fay, Marianne & Treguer, David, 2011. "From growth to green growth -- a framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5872, The World Bank.
    3. Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Saveyn, Bert & Soria, Antonio & Szabo, Laszlo & Van Regemorter, Denise & Van Ierland, Tom, 2013. "A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 73-81.
    4. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2296-2307, July.
    5. Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2011. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis Of The Copenhagen Accord," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 79-103.
    6. Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim & Duscha, Vicki, 2011. "Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3697-3708, June.
    7. Peter Russ & Patrick Criqui, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction : the soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Post-Print halshs-00078489, HAL.
    8. Anger, Niels, 2008. "Emissions trading beyond Europe: Linking schemes in a post-Kyoto world," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 2028-2049, July.
    9. Brouns, Bernd & Ott, Hermann E., 2005. "Taking the lead: post-2012 climate targets for the North: towards adequate and equitable future climate commitments for industrialised countries," Wuppertal Papers 155, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.
    10. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    11. Alban Kitous, Patrick Criqui, Elie Bellevrat and Bertrand Chateau, 2010. "Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System - Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    12. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "From Growth to Green Growth," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, August.
    13. Ottmar Edenhofer & Brigitte Knopf & Terry Barker & Lavinia Baumstark & Elie Bellevrat & Bertrand Chateau & Patrick Criqui & Morna Isaac & Alban Kitous & Socrates Kypreos & Marian Leimbach & Kai Lessma, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(1_suppl), pages 11-48, June.
    14. Paul L. Joskow & John E. Parsons, 2012. "The Future of Nuclear Power After Fukushima," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    15. Saveyn, Bert & Van Regemorter, Denise & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "Economic analysis of the climate pledges of the Copenhagen Accord for the EU and other major countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 34-40.
    16. John Zsyman & Mark Huberty & Arno Behrens & Bert Colijn & Richard Tol & Jorge Núñez Ferrer & Michel Aglietta & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2012. "Green growth," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 47(3), pages 140-164, May.
      • J. Zsyman & M. Huberty & A. Behrens & B. Colijn & M. Aglietta & R.S.J. Tol & J.N. Ferrer & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2012. "Green growth," Post-Print hal-00716353, HAL.
    17. Lucas W. Davis, 2012. "Prospects for Nuclear Power," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 49-66, Winter.
    18. Rob Dellink & Gregory Briner & Christa Clapp, 2011. "The Copenhagen Accord/Cancún Agreements Emission Pledges For 2020: Exploring Economic And Environmental Impacts," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 53-78.
    19. Russ, Peter & Criqui, Patrick, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction: The soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 786-796, February.
    20. Uwe Remme & Markus Blesl, 2008. "A global perspective to achieve a low-carbon society (LCS): scenario analysis with the ETSAP-TIAM model," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 60-75, December.
    21. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining, 2009. "Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2930-2940, August.
    22. Niklas H�hne & Christopher Taylor & Ramzi Elias & Michel Den Elzen & Keywan Riahi & Claudine Chen & Joeri Rogelj & Giacomo Grassi & Fabian Wagner & Kelly Levin & Emanuele Massetti & Zhao Xiusheng, 2012. "National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2°C: comparison of studies," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 356-377, May.
    23. Joeri Rogelj & Julia Nabel & Claudine Chen & William Hare & Kathleen Markmann & Malte Meinshausen & Michiel Schaeffer & Kirsten Macey & Niklas Höhne, 2010. "Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7292), pages 1126-1128, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kosugi, Takanobu, 2016. "Endogenizing the probability of nuclear exit in an optimal power-generation mix model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 102-114.
    2. Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Torben Mideksa & Bjørn Samset, 2015. "Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1511-1527, December.
    3. Sakamoto, Tomoyuki & Takase, Kae & Matsuhashi, Ryuji & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Baseline of the projection under a structural change in energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 274-289.
    4. Pollitt, Hector & Park, Seung-Joon & Lee, Soocheol & Ueta, Kazuhiro, 2014. "An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 243-254.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper, 2011. "Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7361-7371.
    2. A. F. Hof & M. G. J. Elzen & A. Mendoza Beltran, 2016. "The EU 40 % greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 375-392, June.
    3. Anil Markandaya & Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino & Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2014. "Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios," Post-Print halshs-00872630, HAL.
    4. Markandya, A. & González-Eguino, M. & Criqui, P. & Mima, S., 2014. "Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 288-301.
    5. Bollen, Johannes, 2015. "The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies: Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called WorldScan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 178-191.
    6. Charlie Wilson & Arnulf Grubler, 2011. "Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 165-184, August.
    7. Johansson, Daniel J. A. & Lucas, Paul L. & Weitzel, Matthias & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Bazaz, A. B. & Chen, Wenying & den Elzen, Michel G. J. & Ghosh, Joydeep & Grahn, Maria & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Peterson, S, 2012. "Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime," Kiel Working Papers 1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka, 2017. "Carbon tariffs: An analysis of the trade, welfare, and emission effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 195-213.
    9. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Weitzel, Matthias & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Peterson, Sonja & Narita, Daiju, 2012. "Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 116-134.
    10. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    11. Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Knut Alfsen, 2013. "Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO 2 emissions and mitigation costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 619-636, June.
    12. Li, Jun & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Cassen, Christophe, 2017. "Aligning domestic policies with international coordination in a post-Paris global climate regime: A case for China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 258-274.
    13. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    14. Criqui, P. & Mima, S. & Menanteau, P. & Kitous, A., 2015. "Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 119-136.
    15. Ackerman, Frank & Stanton, Elizabeth A., 2012. "Climate risks and carbon prices: Revising the social cost of carbon," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-25.
    16. Ottmar Edenhofer & Christian Flachsland, 2012. "Die Nutzung globaler Gemeinschaftsgüter: Politökonomische Herausforderungen an die Klimapolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(12), pages 29-35, June.
    17. Flachsland, Christian & Brunner, Steffen & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Creutzig, Felix, 2011. "Climate policies for road transport revisited (II): Closing the policy gap with cap-and-trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2100-2110, April.
    18. Duan, Hong-Bo & Zhang, Gu-Peng & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2016. "How will diffusion of PV solar contribute to China׳s emissions-peaking and climate responses?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1076-1085.
    19. Dietz, Simon & Gollier, Christian & Kessler, Louise, 2018. "The climate beta," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 258-274.
    20. Mason, Charles F., 2014. "Uranium and nuclear power: The role of exploration information in framing public policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 49-63.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nuclear power; phase out; climate policy; Post-Kyoto; Copenhagen pledges;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s72013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isfhgde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.