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Prognosen des IfW und tatsächliche Entwicklung im Jahr 2018

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Potjagailo, Galina

Abstract

Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt expandierte im Jahr 2018 deutlich langsamer, als wir im Frühjahr des vergangenen Jahres erwartet hatten. Während wir von einem Anstieg in Höhe von 2,5 Prozent ausgegangen waren, legte die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion gemäß den jüngsten Zahlen des Statistischen Bundesamts lediglich um 1,4 Prozent zu. Insgesamt ist der Prognosefehler in Höhe von 1,1 Prozentpunkten recht groß. In den Jahren von 1994 bis 2017 lag der durchschnittliche absolute Prognosefehler in den Frühjahrsprognosen des IfW bei 0,6 Prozentpunkten; zwischen den Jahren 2011 und 2017 betrug er durchschnittlich 0,2 Prozentpunkte. Allerdings ist es nicht ungewöhnlich, dass die Prognosefehler in Zeiten von konjunkturellen Eintrübungen vergleichsweise hoch ausfallen.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Potjagailo, Galina, 2019. "Prognosen des IfW und tatsächliche Entwicklung im Jahr 2018," Kiel Insight 2019.5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20195
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Jannsen, Nils & Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Die Wirkung von Unsicherheit in den Abnehmerländern auf die deutschen Ausfuhren," Kiel Insight 2016.9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    4. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematische Prognosefehler in unterschiedlichen Konjunkturphasen," Kiel Insight 2017.15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
    6. Ademmer, Martin & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia, 2018. "Zum Einfluss des Niedrigwassers auf die Konjunktur," Kiel Insight 2018.17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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