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Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China

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  • Gong, Gang
  • Lin, Justin Yifu

Abstract

Deflationary expansion has puzzled economists both in and outside China. We study this business cycles phenomenon within a model of discrete time dynamics. We find that deflationary expansion could be possible if driven by an overshooting in investment and if the state of the economy maintains high rate of growth. This expression is consistent with the recent time series variation of some key macroeconomic variables. The high steady state of growth could be explained by the current institutional environment of China.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008. "Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:1:p:1-17
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yen-Hsiao & Quan, Lianfeng & Liu, Yang, 2013. "An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 69-81.
    2. Gao, Yang & Gong, Gang, 2020. "Stabilizing and destabilizing mechanisms: A new perspective to understand business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 51-68.
    3. Lv, Bingyang & Liu, Yongzheng & Li, Yan, 2020. "Fiscal incentives, competition, and investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Sai Ding & John Knight & Xiao Zhang, 2019. "Does China overinvest? Evidence from a panel of Chinese firms," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 489-507, April.
    5. Mark David Witte, 2009. "Pricing to Market: Chinese Export Pricing to the USA after the Peg," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 65-78, March.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chen, Shiyi & Jefferson, Gary H. & Zhang, Jun, 2011. "Structural change, productivity growth and industrial transformation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-150, March.
    8. Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2011. "Credit Market Imperfection and Sectoral Asymmetry of Chinese Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2011/118, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June.
    10. Hsu Sara & Carolina Alba & Simon Melchor, 2016. "China’s structural transformation: reaching potential GDP in the financial services sector," China Finance and Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 37-57, June.
    11. Wei Chi & Richard Freeman & Hongbin Li, 2012. "Adjusting to Really Big Changes: The Labor Market in China, 1989–2009," International Economic Association Series, in: Masahiko Aoki & Jinglian Wu (ed.), The Chinese Economy, chapter 5, pages 93-113, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Francesco Macheda, 2020. "Il ruolo delle imprese a conduzione statale nella lotta della Cina contro il COVID-19 (The role of State-Owned Enterprises in China's fight against the coronavirus disease)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(290), pages 111-139.
    13. Krzysztof Piotr Pawłowski & Wawrzyniec Czubak & Jagoda Zmyślona, 2021. "Regional Diversity of Technical Efficiency in Agriculture as a Results of an Overinvestment: A Case Study from Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, June.
    14. He, Qing & Tai-Leung Chong, Terence & Shi, Kang, 2009. "What accounts for Chinese Business Cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 650-661, December.
    15. Feng Guo & Ying Huang, 2010. "Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility: Evidence from China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(6), pages 73-89, November.
    16. Gong, Gang, 2016. "Two Stages of Economic Development," ADBI Working Papers 628, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    17. Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.
    18. James Laurenceson & Corrine Dobson, "undated". "China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    19. GONG Gang & GAO Jian, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June.
    20. Lv, Bingyang & Liu, Yongzheng & Li, Yan & Ding, Siying, 2018. "Fiscal incentives, competition, and investment in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    21. Li, Cheng, 2010. "Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability: Sub-National Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 28226, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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