Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v59y2018icp40-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonlinear impacts of operating risk and demand management policy on banks’ performance: The role of leading indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Po-Chin
  • Liu, Shiao-Yen
  • Zhai, Rui-Xiang

Abstract

This paper uses the slacks-based super-efficiency DEA model and panel smooth transition regression model to evaluate the nonlinear effects of one-period lagged efficiency score, core capital ratio (the proxy of operating risk), price cost margin (the proxy of market monopoly or competition pressure) and demand management policy (monetary and fiscal policies) on banks’ current performance. In empirical, 37 New York commercial banks during 1996:3Q-2016:3Q as sample objects (i.e., 2997 observations). The empirical results show that the increases in monopoly power, leverage ratio, and real federal fund rate would reduce the banks’ performance as the leading indicator is below its threshold. However, long-run interest rates have a reverse effect. The opposite conclusion holds as the leading indicator is over the threshold. The associated policies to raise the performance are to create competitive environments and construct a dynamic leverage ratio varying with the change of the leading indicator. In addition, resolving the problem of high financing costs, reducing short-run interest rates and increasing long-run interest rates during recessionary periods are also available.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Zhai, Rui-Xiang, 2018. "Nonlinear impacts of operating risk and demand management policy on banks’ performance: The role of leading indicator," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 40-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:59:y:2018:i:c:p:40-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2018.04.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592617302266
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2018.04.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N. & Mester, Loretta J., 2003. "Explaining the dramatic changes in performance of US banks: technological change, deregulation, and dynamic changes in competition," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-95, January.
    2. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    3. Esmeralda Ramalho & Joaquim Ramalho & Pedro Henriques, 2010. "Fractional regression models for second stage DEA efficiency analyses," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 239-255, December.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Cecilia Maigua & Gekara Mouni, 2016. "Influence of Interest Rates Determinants on the Performance of Commercial Banks in Kenya," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 121-133, April.
    6. Dekker, David & Post, Thierry, 2001. "A quasi-concave DEA model with an application for bank branch performance evaluation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 296-311, July.
    7. Cheng, Che-Hui & Wu, Po-Chin, 2013. "Nonlinear earnings persistence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 156-168.
    8. Fotios Pasiouras, 2008. "International evidence on the impact of regulations and supervision on banks’ technical efficiency: an application of two-stage data envelopment analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 187-223, February.
    9. Darrell Parsons & Calvin Gotlieb & Michael Denny, 1993. "Productivity and computers in Canadian banking," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 95-113, June.
    10. Drake, Leigh & Hall, Maximilian J.B. & Simper, Richard, 2006. "The impact of macroeconomic and regulatory factors on bank efficiency: A non-parametric analysis of Hong Kong's banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1443-1466, May.
    11. Clements Adeyinka Akinsoyinu, 2015. "Efficiency Evaluation of European Financial Cooperative Sector. A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 5(4), pages 11-21, October.
    12. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    13. Fujii, Hidemichi & Managi, Shunsuke & Matousek, Roman, 2014. "Indian bank efficiency and productivity changes with undesirable outputs: A disaggregated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 41-50.
    14. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    15. Roger Aliaga‐Díaz & María Pía Olivero, 2011. "The Cyclicality Of Price‐Cost Margins In Banking: An Empirical Analysis Of Its Determinants," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 26-46, January.
    16. Almanza, Camilo & Mora Rodríguez, Jhon James, 2018. "Profit efficiency of banks in Colombia with undesirable output: A directional distance function approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-18.
    17. Simar, Leopold & Wilson, Paul W., 2007. "Estimation and inference in two-stage, semi-parametric models of production processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 31-64, January.
    18. Berger, Allen N. & Mester, Loretta J., 1997. "Inside the black box: What explains differences in the efficiencies of financial institutions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 895-947, July.
    19. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    20. Tone, Kaoru, 2002. "A slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 32-41, November.
    21. Sheng-Chieh Pan & Shiao-Yen Liu & Po-Chin Wu, 2014. "Re-Testing the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Using Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 39-50, February.
    22. Rajiv D. Banker & Ram Natarajan, 2008. "Evaluating Contextual Variables Affecting Productivity Using Data Envelopment Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 48-58, February.
    23. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    24. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    25. Avkiran, Necmi K. & Thoraneenitiyan, Nakhun, 2010. "Purging data before productivity analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 294-302, March.
    26. Eggoh C. Jude, 2010. "Financial Development And Growth: A Panel Smooth Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-33, March.
    27. Hesna Genay & Rich Podjasek, 2014. "What Is the Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment on Bank Profitability?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jul.
    28. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    29. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Fabio Rumler & Walter Waschiczek, 2010. "The Impact of Economic Factors on Bank Profits," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 49-67.
    31. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    32. McDonald, John, 2009. "Using least squares and tobit in second stage DEA efficiency analyses," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 792-798, September.
    33. Psillaki Maria & Georgoulea Eleftheria, 2016. "The Impact of Basel III Indexes of Leverage and Liquidity CRDIV/CRR on Bank Performance: Evidence from Greek Banks," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(1-2), pages 79-107, January-J.
    34. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    35. Piyush Kumar Singh & Keyur Thaker, 2016. "Dynamics of scale effficiency of Indian banks: A deterministic frontier approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(3), pages 437-457, July-Sept.
    36. Paradi, Joseph C. & Rouatt, Stephen & Zhu, Haiyan, 2011. "Two-stage evaluation of bank branch efficiency using data envelopment analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-109, January.
    37. A. P. Lerner, 1934. "The Concept of Monopoly and the Measurement of Monopoly Power," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 157-175.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2019. "Optimal credit guarantee ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises’ financing: Evidence from Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 342-356.
    2. Le, Minh & Hoang, Viet-Ngu & Wilson, Clevo & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Net stable funding ratio and profit efficiency of commercial banks in the US," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 55-66.
    3. Cai, Khoa & Le, Minh & Vo, Hong, 2019. "The cost of being safer in banking: Market power loss," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 116-130.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2013. "Modeling OECD energy demand: An international panel smooth transition error-correction model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 372-383.
    3. Pan, Jiun-Nan & Huang, Jr-Tsung & Chiang, Tsun-Feng, 2015. "Empirical study of the local government deficit, land finance and real estate markets in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 57-67.
    4. Liu, John S. & Lu, Louis Y.Y. & Lu, Wen-Min, 2016. "Research fronts in data envelopment analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 33-45.
    5. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2019. "Gold price and exchange rates: A panel smooth transition regression model for the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 27-46.
    6. Natalya Ketenci, 2015. "Capital mobility in the panel GMM framework: Evidence from EU members," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 12(1), pages 3-19, July.
    7. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2018. "Currency Misalignments in the BRIICS Countries: Fixed Vs. Floating Exchange Rates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1123-1151, November.
    8. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Kou-Bau Wang, 2017. "Does Unemployment Matter for Lottery Sales and their Persistence? A New Estimation Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 581-592, January.
    9. Po-Chin Wu & Hsiao & I-Chung & Tsai & Meng-Hua, 2018. "Nonlinear Effect of Business Cycle on Lottery Sales Stability," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 1-3.
    10. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Sheng-Chieh Pan, 2014. "Does Misery Index Matter for the Persistence of Health Spending? Evidence from OECD Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 893-910, September.
    11. Po-Chin Wu & Sheng-Chieh Pan & Xue-Ling Tai, 2015. "Non-linearity, persistence and spillover effects in stock returns: the role of the volatility index," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 597-613, August.
    12. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Hsiao, Juei-Ming & Huang, Tsai-Yuan, 2016. "Nonlinear and time-varying growth-tourism causality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-59.
    13. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2015. "Efficiency of the banking system in Vietnam under financial liberalization," OSF Preprints qsf6d, Center for Open Science.
    14. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2011. "Electricity demand elasticities and temperature: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 896-902, September.
    15. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    16. Yi-Bin Chiu, 2012. "Deforestation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Developing Countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 60(2), pages 177-194, June.
    17. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2022. "Environmental Performance and GDP Growth: A Non-linear Approach for the G20 Countries," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 101-130.
    18. Warda Nadeem & Nadeem Iqbal & Hassan Hanif, 2022. "Assessing the Determinants of Efficiency: An Empirical Evidence from Developing Economy," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 71-80.
    19. Asish Saha & Umakant Dash, 2016. "Consolidation in Indian banking: Does size matter?," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 43(3), pages 223-238, September.
    20. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Chen, Che-Ying, 2016. "Re-examining risk premiums in the Fama–French model: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 154-171.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Slacks-based super-efficiency DEA model; Panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model; Leading indicator; Performance persistence; Real federal fund rate; National debt ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:59:y:2018:i:c:p:40-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.