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Machine Learning Methods in Algorithmic Trading Strategy Optimization – Design and Time Efficiency

Author

Listed:
  • Ryś Przemysław

    (Quantitative Finance Research Group, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw and Labyrinth HF project, Warsaw, Poland)

  • Ślepaczuk Robert

    (Quantitative Finance Research Group, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw and Labyrinth HF project, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The main aim of this paper was to formulate and analyse the machine learning methods, fitted to the strategy parameters optimization specificity. The most important problems are the sensitivity of a strategy performance to little parameter changes and numerous local extrema distributed over the solution space in an irregular way. The methods were designed for the purpose of significant shortening of the computation time, without a substantial loss of strategy quality. The efficiency of methods was compared for three different pairs of assets in case of moving averages crossover system. The problem was presented for three sets of two assets’ portfolios. In the first case, a strategy was trading on the SPX and DAX index futures; in the second, on the AAPL and MSFT stocks; and finally, in the third case, on the HGF and CBF commodities futures. The methods operated on the in-sample data, containing 16 years of daily prices between 1998 and 2013 and was validated on the out-of-sample period between 2014 and 2017. The major hypothesis verified in this paper is that machine learning methods select strategies with evaluation criterion near the highest one, but in significantly lower execution time than the brute force method (Exhaustive Search).

Suggested Citation

  • Ryś Przemysław & Ślepaczuk Robert, 2018. "Machine Learning Methods in Algorithmic Trading Strategy Optimization – Design and Time Efficiency," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 5(52), pages 206-229, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ceuecj:v:5:y:2018:i:52:p:206-229:n:17
    DOI: 10.1515/ceej-2018-0021
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Power, David M., 2001. "The profitability of moving average trading rules in South Asian stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-33, March.
    2. Ardia, David & Boudt, Kris & Carl, Peter & Mullen, Katharine M. & Peterson, Brian, 2010. "Differential Evolution (DEoptim) for Non-Convex Portfolio Optimization," MPRA Paper 22135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Illia Baranochnikov & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "A comparison of LSTM and GRU architectures with novel walk-forward approach to algorithmic investment strategy," Working Papers 2022-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Algorithmic trading; investment strategy; machine learning; optimization; investment strategy; differential evolutionary method; cross-validation; overfitting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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