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Влияние эффекта переноса динамики номинального обменного курса на инфляцию в Казахстане // The impact of the nominal exchange rate pass-through on inflation in Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Сейдазов Балислам // Seidazov Balislam

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

Abstract

Изучение эффекта переноса шоков обменного курса на инфляцию представляет собой особо важный аспект экономических исследований, в частности для стран с развивающимися рынками. Оценка эффекта переноса имеет особое значение для Казахстана ввиду экономических характеристик страны, таких как свободно плавающий обменный курс, активная торговая позиция и высокий спрос на импортные товары. Также данная тема принимает еще более значимое положение в контексте инфляционного таргетирования, в рамках которого изучение факторов, влияющих на инфляцию, приобретает ключевую важность. В данной работе анализируется наличие, степень и динамика данного эффекта в Казахстане, что позволит глубже понять взаимодействие между внешнеэкономическими факторами и внутренней инфляцией. Результаты построенных моделей векторных авторегрессий и функции импульсных откликов свидетельствуют о наличии передачи колебаний номинальных обменных курсов тенге к российскому рублю и доллару США на инфляцию в Казахстане. // Studying the effect of exchange rate shocks on inflation is a particularly important aspect of economic research, especially for countries with developing markets. Evaluating the pass-through effect is of special significance for Kazakhstan due to the country's economic characteristics, such as a freely floating exchange rate, an active trade position, and high demand for imported goods. This topic also gains further importance in the context of inflation targeting, where examining factors that influence inflation becomes crucial. This paper analyzes the presence, degree, and dynamics of this effect in Kazakhstan, aiming to provide a deeper understanding of the interaction between external economic factors and domestic inflation. The results of the vector autoregression models and impulse response functions indicate the existence of a transmission of fluctuations in the nominal exchange rates of the tenge against the Russian ruble and the US dollar onto inflation in Kazakhstan.

Suggested Citation

  • Сейдазов Балислам // Seidazov Balislam, 2024. "Влияние эффекта переноса динамики номинального обменного курса на инфляцию в Казахстане // The impact of the nominal exchange rate pass-through on inflation in Kazakhstan," Working Papers #2024-12, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    • Handle: RePEc:aob:wpaper:61
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    инфляция; эффект переноса; модель векторной авторегрессии; импульсные отклики; векторная авторегрессия; inflation; pass-through effect; vector autoregression model; impulse responses; vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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