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Do You Know That I Know That You Know?: Higher Order Beliefs in Survey Data

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Coibion

    (UT Austin)

  • Jane Ryngaert

    (Wake Forest University)

  • Saten Kumar

    (Auckland University of Technology)

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

    (University of California Berkeley)

Abstract

We implement a new survey of firms, focusing on their higher-order macroeconomic expectations. The survey provides a novel set of stylized facts regarding the relationship between first-order and higher-order expectations of economic agents, including how they adjust their beliefs in response to a variety of information treatments and how these adjustments affect their economic decisions. We show how these facts can be used to calibrate key parameters of noisy-information models with infinite regress as well as to test predictions made by this class of models. The survey also quantifies cognitive limits of agents in the form of level-k thinking. We find little evidence that this departure from infinite regress helps reconcile the data and theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Coibion & Jane Ryngaert & Saten Kumar & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2019. "Do You Know That I Know That You Know?: Higher Order Beliefs in Survey Data," 2019 Meeting Papers 280, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:280
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kleinjans, Kristin J. & van Soest, Arthur, 2010. "Nonresponse and Focal Point Answers to Subjective Probability Questions," IZA Discussion Papers 5272, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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