Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years,... more Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more fo...
Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty... more Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squares regression methods. We explore the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60–90° N/S). Bias and mean error...
Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) are large volume mid-depth... more Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) are large volume mid-depth (400-1200 m) water masses, which transport heat, freshwater and CO2 into the Southern Hemisphere subtropical gyres and to the equatorial thermoclines. This study investigates variations in SAMW and AAIW properties and circulation in the southeast Pacific between the present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Observations from the
... Reed, 2005). Ninety minerals were studied with an SEM/EDX Zeiss Supra 50VP with EDS. All anal... more ... Reed, 2005). Ninety minerals were studied with an SEM/EDX Zeiss Supra 50VP with EDS. All analyses were conducted at 20 kV; tilt 0.00; AmpT 35.0; Det Type SUTW, Sapphire Res 130.92 for 60 s (Table 2; Appendix B). Table ...
Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years,... more Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more fo...
Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty... more Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squares regression methods. We explore the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60–90° N/S). Bias and mean error...
Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) are large volume mid-depth... more Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) are large volume mid-depth (400-1200 m) water masses, which transport heat, freshwater and CO2 into the Southern Hemisphere subtropical gyres and to the equatorial thermoclines. This study investigates variations in SAMW and AAIW properties and circulation in the southeast Pacific between the present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Observations from the
... Reed, 2005). Ninety minerals were studied with an SEM/EDX Zeiss Supra 50VP with EDS. All anal... more ... Reed, 2005). Ninety minerals were studied with an SEM/EDX Zeiss Supra 50VP with EDS. All analyses were conducted at 20 kV; tilt 0.00; AmpT 35.0; Det Type SUTW, Sapphire Res 130.92 for 60 s (Table 2; Appendix B). Table ...
Uploads
Papers by Corinne Hartin