Serious games are designed to achieve specific educational or other practical purposes beyond pur... more Serious games are designed to achieve specific educational or other practical purposes beyond pure entertainment. These games take many different forms—from card decks to massive multiplayer online games—and have proliferated across diverse fields. This note introduces IMPACT: Forestry Edition, a serious board game designed to help forestry professionals and stakeholders think more broadly, critically, and creatively about the future of forestry. We describe the game and feedback from beta testing and discuss the advantages and potential drawbacks of gaming methods. A “print and play” version of the game is included as supplemental material. Serious games can make an important contribution to forestry by engaging and informing diverse stakeholders and generating insight that other methods cannot.
This study used a participatory group brainstorming process called the Futures Wheel to identify ... more This study used a participatory group brainstorming process called the Futures Wheel to identify and evaluate the direct and higher-order implications of this trend: Central Hardwood forests lack age-class diversity and will uniformly grow old. Five 1st-order consequences of this trend were identified: continued significant decrease in early-successional forest, continued significant increase in late-successional forest, decreased resilience to many types of forest disturbances, decrease in carbon sequestration rates, and increase in the popular perception that this is the way all forests are and should be. Twenty-five forestry professionals participated in a Futures Wheel exercise to identify 2nd- and 3rd-order implications of the five 1st orders. Participants identified 25 2nd-order and 121 3rd-order implications and scored them for likelihood and desirability. Analysis of the 2nd and 3rd orders revealed many types of implications that are relevant for policy and management interv...
Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise f... more Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise from within the wildfire community. But changes in seemingly unrelated external factors - outside of the world of wildfire and fire management - can have unexpected and profound effects. This paper describes an ongoing sh1dy of the future of wildland fire management in which a broader approach is taken to explore alternative fuhrres and identify emerging trends. The goal of the project is to gain practical strategic foresight into wildland fire management. We will assemble a panel of academic and professional futurists from multiple areas of expertise to provide their views and insights about developments outside of fire management that will likely affect fire management in the future. The panel will be convened via a series of text-based asynchronous computer conferences, with panel members reacting to and building on each other's ideas, using methods such as futures wheels and wild ...
Backcasting is a Futures method that starts with a preferred future and works back to the present... more Backcasting is a Futures method that starts with a preferred future and works back to the present, identifying actions over time needed to achieve the preferred future. But there are few specifics in the Backcasting literature on how to develop the pathway that connects a preferred future to the present. This article describes a participatory process for Backcasting that uses a structure similar to the Futures Wheel to develop the pathway from the preferred future back to the present. A case study of U.S. Forest Service organizational planning is used to illustrate the method.
Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of ra... more Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of rapid and turbulent change. To be effective in this context, they must look ahead to anticipate emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats. Horizon scanning is a foresight method that can help managers and policy makers develop and maintain a broad and externally focused forward view to anticipate and align decisions with both emerging (near-term) and long-term futures. This article reports on the design and early stage development and implementation of a horizon scanning system established for the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Strategic Foresight Group, and developed cooperatively with the University of Houston Foresight Program. The goal of the project is to develop an ongoing horizon scanning system as an input to developing environmental foresight: insight into future environmental challenges and opportunities, and the ability to apply that insight to prepare for a sustainable f...
Childhood-nature experiences have lifelong effects on environmental citizenship and commitment to... more Childhood-nature experiences have lifelong effects on environmental citizenship and commitment to nature-based activities. But, it is unclear whether, and to what extent, the different mechanisms through which children and youth experience nature are associated with these outcomes. To test these associations, an online questionnaire assessing mechanisms of childhood exposure to nature, adulthood environmental citizenship and commitment to nature-based activities, and demographic variables was sent to the email addresses of 509 employees of the United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. The 236 completed surveys indicated four mechanisms of children’s exposure to nature. Children’s self-exposure to nature was the strongest predictor of a number of aspects of adulthood environmental citizenship and of behavioral and attitudinal commitments to nature-based activities. Exposure through school-related programs had less predictive value for these o...
A conceptual and operational model examined relationships among childhood participation in nature... more A conceptual and operational model examined relationships among childhood participation in nature-based activities, motivations, constraints, mitigation of constraints, and adult visits to Minnesota State Parks. The results support a model in which (a) higher childhood participation in nature-based activities increased motivation and mitigation strategies, (b) constraints decreased state park visitation and also triggered the use of mitigation strategies that in turn increased state park visits, and (c) higher levels of motivation improved efforts to negotiate constraints and visit more. Consistent with the main hypothesis, the more nature-based activities people participate in during childhood, the more they desire such activities and are able to mitigate constraints to participation, and consequently, the higher the level of participation, as an adult. The results suggest a rather indirect association between childhood participation in nature-based activities and adulthood partici...
Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, wh... more Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, where planning horizons often span many decades. But generating foresight is challenging due to the increasing pace and complexity of change and growing uncertainty about the future. Most change that could affect or even disrupt forestry in the future originates outside of the field, such as social, technological, economic, and environmental changes. The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project (Forest Horizons) aims to generate foresight by identifying early signals of change from outside forestry that professionals within the field may not be aware of or pay close attention to. This article draws on the database of signals of change uncovered in the Forest Horizons project and identifies fifteen key emerging changes that could help shape the long-term future of forestry. Study Implications: The long-term nature of forestry has compelled foresters to be forward-looking and plan many decade...
Serious games are designed to achieve specific educational or other practical purposes beyond pur... more Serious games are designed to achieve specific educational or other practical purposes beyond pure entertainment. These games take many different forms—from card decks to massive multiplayer online games—and have proliferated across diverse fields. This note introduces IMPACT: Forestry Edition, a serious board game designed to help forestry professionals and stakeholders think more broadly, critically, and creatively about the future of forestry. We describe the game and feedback from beta testing and discuss the advantages and potential drawbacks of gaming methods. A “print and play” version of the game is included as supplemental material. Serious games can make an important contribution to forestry by engaging and informing diverse stakeholders and generating insight that other methods cannot.
This study used a participatory group brainstorming process called the Futures Wheel to identify ... more This study used a participatory group brainstorming process called the Futures Wheel to identify and evaluate the direct and higher-order implications of this trend: Central Hardwood forests lack age-class diversity and will uniformly grow old. Five 1st-order consequences of this trend were identified: continued significant decrease in early-successional forest, continued significant increase in late-successional forest, decreased resilience to many types of forest disturbances, decrease in carbon sequestration rates, and increase in the popular perception that this is the way all forests are and should be. Twenty-five forestry professionals participated in a Futures Wheel exercise to identify 2nd- and 3rd-order implications of the five 1st orders. Participants identified 25 2nd-order and 121 3rd-order implications and scored them for likelihood and desirability. Analysis of the 2nd and 3rd orders revealed many types of implications that are relevant for policy and management interv...
Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise f... more Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise from within the wildfire community. But changes in seemingly unrelated external factors - outside of the world of wildfire and fire management - can have unexpected and profound effects. This paper describes an ongoing sh1dy of the future of wildland fire management in which a broader approach is taken to explore alternative fuhrres and identify emerging trends. The goal of the project is to gain practical strategic foresight into wildland fire management. We will assemble a panel of academic and professional futurists from multiple areas of expertise to provide their views and insights about developments outside of fire management that will likely affect fire management in the future. The panel will be convened via a series of text-based asynchronous computer conferences, with panel members reacting to and building on each other's ideas, using methods such as futures wheels and wild ...
Backcasting is a Futures method that starts with a preferred future and works back to the present... more Backcasting is a Futures method that starts with a preferred future and works back to the present, identifying actions over time needed to achieve the preferred future. But there are few specifics in the Backcasting literature on how to develop the pathway that connects a preferred future to the present. This article describes a participatory process for Backcasting that uses a structure similar to the Futures Wheel to develop the pathway from the preferred future back to the present. A case study of U.S. Forest Service organizational planning is used to illustrate the method.
Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of ra... more Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of rapid and turbulent change. To be effective in this context, they must look ahead to anticipate emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats. Horizon scanning is a foresight method that can help managers and policy makers develop and maintain a broad and externally focused forward view to anticipate and align decisions with both emerging (near-term) and long-term futures. This article reports on the design and early stage development and implementation of a horizon scanning system established for the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Strategic Foresight Group, and developed cooperatively with the University of Houston Foresight Program. The goal of the project is to develop an ongoing horizon scanning system as an input to developing environmental foresight: insight into future environmental challenges and opportunities, and the ability to apply that insight to prepare for a sustainable f...
Childhood-nature experiences have lifelong effects on environmental citizenship and commitment to... more Childhood-nature experiences have lifelong effects on environmental citizenship and commitment to nature-based activities. But, it is unclear whether, and to what extent, the different mechanisms through which children and youth experience nature are associated with these outcomes. To test these associations, an online questionnaire assessing mechanisms of childhood exposure to nature, adulthood environmental citizenship and commitment to nature-based activities, and demographic variables was sent to the email addresses of 509 employees of the United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. The 236 completed surveys indicated four mechanisms of children’s exposure to nature. Children’s self-exposure to nature was the strongest predictor of a number of aspects of adulthood environmental citizenship and of behavioral and attitudinal commitments to nature-based activities. Exposure through school-related programs had less predictive value for these o...
A conceptual and operational model examined relationships among childhood participation in nature... more A conceptual and operational model examined relationships among childhood participation in nature-based activities, motivations, constraints, mitigation of constraints, and adult visits to Minnesota State Parks. The results support a model in which (a) higher childhood participation in nature-based activities increased motivation and mitigation strategies, (b) constraints decreased state park visitation and also triggered the use of mitigation strategies that in turn increased state park visits, and (c) higher levels of motivation improved efforts to negotiate constraints and visit more. Consistent with the main hypothesis, the more nature-based activities people participate in during childhood, the more they desire such activities and are able to mitigate constraints to participation, and consequently, the higher the level of participation, as an adult. The results suggest a rather indirect association between childhood participation in nature-based activities and adulthood partici...
Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, wh... more Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, where planning horizons often span many decades. But generating foresight is challenging due to the increasing pace and complexity of change and growing uncertainty about the future. Most change that could affect or even disrupt forestry in the future originates outside of the field, such as social, technological, economic, and environmental changes. The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project (Forest Horizons) aims to generate foresight by identifying early signals of change from outside forestry that professionals within the field may not be aware of or pay close attention to. This article draws on the database of signals of change uncovered in the Forest Horizons project and identifies fifteen key emerging changes that could help shape the long-term future of forestry. Study Implications: The long-term nature of forestry has compelled foresters to be forward-looking and plan many decade...
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