Natural resources, climate, governance by David Mihalyi
Oil discoveries can constitute a major positive and exogenous shock to economic activity, but the... more Oil discoveries can constitute a major positive and exogenous shock to economic activity, but the resource curse hypothesis would suggest they might also be detrimental to growth over the long run. This paper utilizes a new methodology for estimating growth underperformance to examine the extent to which discoveries depress the growth path of a country following a discovery and prior to production starting. The study finds causal evidence of a significant negative effect on short-run growth and growth relative to counterfactual forecast growth in countries with weak institutions, creating growth disappointments prior to private and public resource windfalls. This effect is termed the presource curse.
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Papers by David Mihalyi
Memoir 125: Giant Fields of the Decade: 2010–2020
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finance and development, Dec 6, 2019
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We have updated and extended the dataset on giant oil discoveries previously published by Mike Ho... more We have updated and extended the dataset on giant oil discoveries previously published by Mike Horn under the auspice of the AAPG that contains discoveries from 1868 to 2010 (Halbouty, 2014; Horn, 2004). Beyond incorporating new discoveries after 2010 up to 2018 (and soon 2020), and corrections to the data, the main contribution has been to provide estimates of the US dollar value of the petroleum field presented in terms of Net Present Value (NPV). This is based on the discoveries' estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR) amount of oil and gas, measured in nominal and real US dollars, using the price of petroleum in the year of discovery. This dataset is linked to the article "The Economic Effects of Giant Oil and Gas Discoveries" which is in process of publication by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG).
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The Extractive Industries and Society, 2021
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018
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Policy Research Working Papers, 2017
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Research Papers in Economics, 2021
Can debt moratoria help countries weather negative shocks? We study the bond market effects of an... more Can debt moratoria help countries weather negative shocks? We study the bond market effects of an NPV-neutral debt service suspension endorsed by the international community during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using daily data on sovereign bond spreads and synthetic control methods, we show that countries eligible for official debt relief experience a larger decline in borrowing costs compared to similar, ineligible countries. This decline is stronger for countries that receive a larger relief, suggesting that the effect works through liquidity provision. By contrast, our results do not support the concern that debt relief could generate stigma.
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Policy Research Working Papers, 2022
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Can debt moratoria help countries weather negative shocks? We study the bond market effects of an... more Can debt moratoria help countries weather negative shocks? We study the bond market effects of an NPV-neutral debt service suspension endorsed by the international community during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using daily data on sovereign bond spreads and synthetic control methods, we show that countries eligible for official debt relief experience a larger decline in borrowing costs compared to similar, ineligible countries. This decline is stronger for countries that receive a larger relief, suggesting that the effect works through liquidity provision. By contrast, our results do not support the concern that debt relief could generate stigma.
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SSRN Electronic Journal
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SSRN Electronic Journal
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Natural resources, climate, governance by David Mihalyi
Papers by David Mihalyi