Statistical journal of the United Nations economic commission for Europe, 1996
The Italian demographic evolution shows a significant ageing of the population due to declining f... more The Italian demographic evolution shows a significant ageing of the population due to declining fertility levels and increasing life expectancy. In comparison with other European Union countries, Italy has the lowest total fertility rate and very low levels of higher education and young-age em ployment rates. The consequences of these sociodemographic trends will be a very high proportion of dependent population relative to the population in the labour force. These trends are supposed to influence the future evolution of the age-related expenditures: pensions, health care and education. In this paper we try to forecast the share of social expenditure on GDP using a dynamic simulation model which takes into account both macroeconomic and sociodemographic interrelationships. A multi state demographic projection model is linked to an overlapping generation model describing the macroeconomic equilibrium. The results show that around 2030 there will be a peak in the social expenditure r...
Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, 2018
Financial crises damage output and social cohesion. Lack of timely and accurate data makes it mor... more Financial crises damage output and social cohesion. Lack of timely and accurate data makes it more difficult to assess risks' build up. Information gaps can also limit the ability to respond to crises. This calls for better data to monitor economic and financial risks. Several measures taken by the international official statistics community address information needs. These include efforts to fill the data gaps, ensure policy relevance of key indicators, and measure the "unmeasured" complex dimensions of economy and society. Harnessing new data sources and promoting innovation in statistical production processes are key to improving timeliness and adequacy of statistical information services. Nowcasting and predictive analytics can enhance the provision of early warnings about crises.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, quantitative evidence was desperately needed in order to understand... more During the COVID-19 pandemic, quantitative evidence was desperately needed in order to understand and manage an unprecedented situation, and to make important national, European and international decisions. Eurostat and the national statistical institutes (NSIs) played a key role in managing the pandemic, providing society with a high quality statistical information service. In particular, the crisis accelerated innovation in statistical production, steered complex processes of change towards the use of new data sources and privately held data for official statistics, enhanced the adoption of new statistical methods, and consequently the production of experimental statistics and dashboards. While the new data ecosystem provided opportunities for the production of official statistics, the importance of privacy preservation, data security and the development of adequate data quality frameworks remained a priority. Important strands of work for the future would be: satisfying the incre...
This paper discusses blockchain from a public sector perspective in Europe where interest in its ... more This paper discusses blockchain from a public sector perspective in Europe where interest in its adoption is accelerating. Having this goal in mind, the European Commission is currently deploying a common European Blockchain Services Infrastructure in close collaboration with the Member States, in addition to specific funding provided by EU Programmes. Despite being a recent technology—its origins date back to 2008—blockchain builds on classical trust enabling technologies to offer novel functionalities that open new possibilities for creating value for society. In the public sector, this happens via improved processes (internal focus) and services provided (external focus). In short, blockchain-based solutions have the potential to increase significantly the rate of automation and modernization within the public sector in compliance to Europe’s specific legal constraints, in particular when it comes to ensuring the authenticity of information in digital format.
In the thick of a number of ongoing global changes – the digital transformation, data revolution,... more In the thick of a number of ongoing global changes – the digital transformation, data revolution, resource constraints in statistical production – statistics producers in the ESS (European Statistical System) have devised a common strategic response to the challenges that have coincidentally arisen. This response is the ESS Vision 2020, a portfolio of eight projects which enable the producers of official European statistics to keep pace with change in an innovative and agile way. Each of the ESS projects addresses a different aspect of the production process of official statistics. One of these projects is DIGICOM – project for Digital Communication, User Analytics and Innovative Products – which will run from 2016 until the end of 2019. The objective of the DIGICOM project is two-fold: modernising communication and dissemination of European statistics, and building capacity within the ESS. In developing new methods to communicate and disseminate statistics, a user-centric approach ...
Using panel data from 118 developing countries in 19712000, this paper explores the channels lin... more Using panel data from 118 developing countries in 19712000, this paper explores the channels linking social spending, human capital, and growth and compares the effects of alternative economic policy interventions. With separate modeling for education and health capital, explicit ...
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Using a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates the determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both fiscal and political factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, while efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries that experienced prior defaults. The composition of fiscal policy matters: spending on public investment contributes to lower spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit d...
Statistical journal of the United Nations economic commission for Europe, 1996
The Italian demographic evolution shows a significant ageing of the population due to declining f... more The Italian demographic evolution shows a significant ageing of the population due to declining fertility levels and increasing life expectancy. In comparison with other European Union countries, Italy has the lowest total fertility rate and very low levels of higher education and young-age em ployment rates. The consequences of these sociodemographic trends will be a very high proportion of dependent population relative to the population in the labour force. These trends are supposed to influence the future evolution of the age-related expenditures: pensions, health care and education. In this paper we try to forecast the share of social expenditure on GDP using a dynamic simulation model which takes into account both macroeconomic and sociodemographic interrelationships. A multi state demographic projection model is linked to an overlapping generation model describing the macroeconomic equilibrium. The results show that around 2030 there will be a peak in the social expenditure r...
Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, 2018
Financial crises damage output and social cohesion. Lack of timely and accurate data makes it mor... more Financial crises damage output and social cohesion. Lack of timely and accurate data makes it more difficult to assess risks' build up. Information gaps can also limit the ability to respond to crises. This calls for better data to monitor economic and financial risks. Several measures taken by the international official statistics community address information needs. These include efforts to fill the data gaps, ensure policy relevance of key indicators, and measure the "unmeasured" complex dimensions of economy and society. Harnessing new data sources and promoting innovation in statistical production processes are key to improving timeliness and adequacy of statistical information services. Nowcasting and predictive analytics can enhance the provision of early warnings about crises.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, quantitative evidence was desperately needed in order to understand... more During the COVID-19 pandemic, quantitative evidence was desperately needed in order to understand and manage an unprecedented situation, and to make important national, European and international decisions. Eurostat and the national statistical institutes (NSIs) played a key role in managing the pandemic, providing society with a high quality statistical information service. In particular, the crisis accelerated innovation in statistical production, steered complex processes of change towards the use of new data sources and privately held data for official statistics, enhanced the adoption of new statistical methods, and consequently the production of experimental statistics and dashboards. While the new data ecosystem provided opportunities for the production of official statistics, the importance of privacy preservation, data security and the development of adequate data quality frameworks remained a priority. Important strands of work for the future would be: satisfying the incre...
This paper discusses blockchain from a public sector perspective in Europe where interest in its ... more This paper discusses blockchain from a public sector perspective in Europe where interest in its adoption is accelerating. Having this goal in mind, the European Commission is currently deploying a common European Blockchain Services Infrastructure in close collaboration with the Member States, in addition to specific funding provided by EU Programmes. Despite being a recent technology—its origins date back to 2008—blockchain builds on classical trust enabling technologies to offer novel functionalities that open new possibilities for creating value for society. In the public sector, this happens via improved processes (internal focus) and services provided (external focus). In short, blockchain-based solutions have the potential to increase significantly the rate of automation and modernization within the public sector in compliance to Europe’s specific legal constraints, in particular when it comes to ensuring the authenticity of information in digital format.
In the thick of a number of ongoing global changes – the digital transformation, data revolution,... more In the thick of a number of ongoing global changes – the digital transformation, data revolution, resource constraints in statistical production – statistics producers in the ESS (European Statistical System) have devised a common strategic response to the challenges that have coincidentally arisen. This response is the ESS Vision 2020, a portfolio of eight projects which enable the producers of official European statistics to keep pace with change in an innovative and agile way. Each of the ESS projects addresses a different aspect of the production process of official statistics. One of these projects is DIGICOM – project for Digital Communication, User Analytics and Innovative Products – which will run from 2016 until the end of 2019. The objective of the DIGICOM project is two-fold: modernising communication and dissemination of European statistics, and building capacity within the ESS. In developing new methods to communicate and disseminate statistics, a user-centric approach ...
Using panel data from 118 developing countries in 19712000, this paper explores the channels lin... more Using panel data from 118 developing countries in 19712000, this paper explores the channels linking social spending, human capital, and growth and compares the effects of alternative economic policy interventions. With separate modeling for education and health capital, explicit ...
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Using a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates the determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both fiscal and political factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, while efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries that experienced prior defaults. The composition of fiscal policy matters: spending on public investment contributes to lower spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit d...
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Papers by Emanuele Baldacci