This paper develops a skewness and leptokurtic modified VaR model with a mixture weight parameter... more This paper develops a skewness and leptokurtic modified VaR model with a mixture weight parameter that blends the Cornish-Fisher and EWMA methods. We estimate and evaluate five existing parametric VaR specifications using weekly returns for Canadian feedlot cattle feeding margin data and Maple Leaf Foods stock return data. The estimation of VaR based on EWMA method yields the most satisfactory results particularly for returns with positive skewness or leptokurtic tails. Meanwhile, the VaR forecasts obtained using the Cornish-Fisher method provides a relatively better tracking of the observed returns compared to the other methods, and therefore, has lower forecast error. Our proposed model allows users to determine the value of VaR based on their own risk preferences.
This paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Agricultural Economics Society (Ha... more This paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Agricultural Economics Society (Halifax, June 2004) in a session entitled “What’s Happening in the Co-operative Sector”. Papers presented at CAES meetings are not subject to the journal’s standard refereeing process. The Issue Over the past 25 years, traditional agricultural co-operatives have been challenged by competition from local investor-owned firms and multinational companies, deregulation and globalization of trade, and increased market concentration in suppliers and purchasers. At the same time, co-operatives have constantly been seeking to add value to their member services through expansion and/or adoption of new technology. The capital investment needed for these endeavours has to be financed, and for traditional co-operatives the major source of financing new investments has been long-term borrowing. As a result some co-operatives are characterized by high debt loads, which may result in increased financial ...
The role producer risk preferences on WTP is for sustainable breeding practices addressed in this... more The role producer risk preferences on WTP is for sustainable breeding practices addressed in this paper using stated preference methods. Estimates of WTP amongst beef producers are compared with those the diary sector. Whilst preliminary indicate a relatively lower impact, these effects seem nuanced in dairy relative to beef. This suggests that influence of risk in the producer valuation of new technologies may be commingled with market structure effects.
We study the production efficiency of teff in Ethiopia. Using a large cross-section of teff plots... more We study the production efficiency of teff in Ethiopia. Using a large cross-section of teff plots, we find that teff output could be increased by approximately 25 percent with the available inputs and technology through investments directed to improved gender-sensitive extension service and infrastructure development. The magnitude of technical inefficiency is robust to alternative functional form and various variable specifications. Community discussion groups and distance to the nearest agricultural co-operative are further shown to have a significant effect on technical efficiency. We conclude the paper by discussing the potential policy implications of our findings.
This paper develops a skewness and leptokurtic modified VaR model with a mixture weight parameter... more This paper develops a skewness and leptokurtic modified VaR model with a mixture weight parameter that blends the Cornish-Fisher and EWMA methods. We estimate and evaluate five existing parametric VaR specifications using weekly returns for Canadian feedlot cattle feeding margin data and Maple Leaf Foods stock return data. The estimation of VaR based on EWMA method yields the most satisfactory results particularly for returns with positive skewness or leptokurtic tails. Meanwhile, the VaR forecasts obtained using the Cornish-Fisher method provides a relatively better tracking of the observed returns compared to the other methods, and therefore, has lower forecast error. Our proposed model allows users to determine the value of VaR based on their own risk preferences.
This FARE Share Special Issue is a dedication to the late Dr. Thorald Keith (T.K.) Warley (1930-2... more This FARE Share Special Issue is a dedication to the late Dr. Thorald Keith (T.K.) Warley (1930-2018). Known to most as Sandy, his contribution to the University of Guelph spanned decades, including the roles of professor and chair of the Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics (FARE). Praise for Sandy could fill volumes; we've included just a sampling of remembrances and reflections from colleagues and friends, including past and present faculty and students. You'll read about Sandy's many contributions to their lives, to the University and his extraordinary commitment to the entire agricultural economist community.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
Abstract In this paper, I explore the potential effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on Canadian food... more Abstract In this paper, I explore the potential effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on Canadian food processors. First, COVID‐19 may have an impact on food processing economic activities because of supply and demand shocks. Second, the impact of COVID‐19 on food processing may depend on the type of products and the size of the processors. The effects of measures taken by the government to flatten the epidemiological curve on the economic activities of the food processing sector are uncertain.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
Agricultural policy frameworks such as Growing Forward are intended to enhance the productivity a... more Agricultural policy frameworks such as Growing Forward are intended to enhance the productivity and competitiveness of the Canadian agricultural sector and to stabilize farm income. This paper examines the relationship between production efficiency and government program payments. First, we find evidence of heterogeneity in production efficiency across farms. Second, we find a negative correlation between production efficiency and the share and level of program payments. The result of this study underscores the importance of understanding the link between technical inefficiency and government payments. Les cadres strategiques agricoles comme Cultivons l'avenir existent pour favoriser la productivite et la competitivite du secteur agricole canadien et pour stabiliser les revenus des exploitations agricoles. Cet article examine la relation entre l'efficience de la production et les programmes gouvernementaux de paiements. En premier lieu, nous avons trouve des preuves d'heterogeneite dans l'efficience de la production dans toutes les exploitations agricoles. Ensuite, nous avons identifie une correlation negative entre la production efficiente,et la part et niveau des programmes de paiements. Le resultat de cette etude met en relief l'importance de comprendre le lien entre les inefficiences techniques et les paiements gouvernementaux.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
Bovine Mastitis is one of the most prevalent and costly production diseases in the dairy industry... more Bovine Mastitis is one of the most prevalent and costly production diseases in the dairy industry in Canada and worldwide causing major animal welfare problems, environmental problems, and productivity losses. In this paper, we examine the effects of risk attitudes and social interactions on the willingness to pay (WTP) for genotyping animals for susceptibility to a chronic mastitis trait. We use contingent valuation with double bounded dichotomous choice questions to elicit producers’ WTP. The estimated mean WTP for genotyping is approximately $50 per animal. Compared to the current market prices of commercially available comprehensive genotyping services, this estimate suggests a significant market potential for genotyping to be bundled with economically important disease traits. We also find evidence that both risk attitudes and social interactions have strong effects on the WTP for genotyping. Farmers with higher risk tolerance are willing to pay more for genotyping service. For dairy farmers with more concern about mastitis, risk tolerance has no significant effect on the WTP, while social interactions have a significant effect on the WTP. We also find a strong interaction effect between risk tolerance and social interactions. The findings encourage interest in questions about how risk attitudes, social networks, and their interactions shape the adoption of and the WTP for a novel agricultural technology. La mastite bovine est la maladie de production la plus repandue et la plus couteuse de l'industrie laitiere au Canada et mondialement causant des problemes en ce qui concerne le bien-etre des animaux, l'environnement et la perte de productivite. Cet article examine les effets de l'attitude a l′egard du risque et des interactions sociales concernant la volonte de payer pour le genotypage d'animaux pour le depistage de la susceptibilite a posseder le trait de mastite chronique. L'evaluation contingente avec questions a double proposition dichotomique a ete utilisee afin d'obtenir la volonte de payer des producteurs. La volonte moyenne estimee de payer pour le genotypage s'eleve a approximativement 50 $ par animal. Comparee aux prix courants du marche pour les services commerciaux complets de genotypage, cette estimation suggere un potentiel commercial significatif pour grouper le genotypage a d'autres traits de maladie d'importance economique. Nous trouvons aussi trouve que les attitudes a l′egard du risque et les interactions sociales avaient un impact significatif sur la volonte de payer pour le genotypage. Les fermiers demontrant une grande tolerance au risque sont disposes a payer plus pour les services de genotypage. Pour les producteurs laitiers preoccupes par la mastite, la tolerance vis-a-vis du risque n'a aucun effet sur la volonte de payer, tandis que les interactions sociales en ont une importante. Nous notons aussi un effet significatif d'interaction entre la tolerance pour le risque et les interactions sociales. Les resultats favorisent un questionnement au sujet des attitudes a l′egard du risque, des reseaux sociaux et de leurs interactions, cherchant comment ces derniers guideront l'adoption de nouvelles technologies agricoles et la volonte d'en acquerir.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
We examine the relationship between farm-level scale efficiency and quota purchases in the Ontari... more We examine the relationship between farm-level scale efficiency and quota purchases in the Ontario dairy quota market before and after the implementation of a progressive transfer assessment policy and a price cap policy. We find that scale efficiency has a positive effect on net quota purchases and that the two regulations slowed down this effect. The largest deterrent in the movement of quota from less efficient to more efficient producers occurred after the implementation of the capital asset pricing policy. If the capital asset pricing policy remains in effect, it will likely take a longer time to achieve an efficient allocation of quota across producers in the industry. Nous examinons la relation entre l'efficience d'echelle agricole et les achats de quota au sein du marche des quotas laitiers ontariens, avant et apres l'implantation d'une politique d'evaluation progressive de transfert, et d'une autre de plafonnement des prix. Nous avancons que l'efficience d'echelle a un effet positif sur les achats nets de quota et que les deux politiques ont freine cet effet. La plus grande dissuasion au sein du mouvement des quotas de producteurs moins efficients vers ceux qui le sont plus, survient apres le plafonnement des prix. Si la politique de plafonnement des prix demeure en vigueur, il faudra attendre encore longtemps avant de reussir une allocation efficiente des quotas parmi les producteurs de l'industrie.
This paper develops a skewness and leptokurtic modified VaR model with a mixture weight parameter... more This paper develops a skewness and leptokurtic modified VaR model with a mixture weight parameter that blends the Cornish-Fisher and EWMA methods. We estimate and evaluate five existing parametric VaR specifications using weekly returns for Canadian feedlot cattle feeding margin data and Maple Leaf Foods stock return data. The estimation of VaR based on EWMA method yields the most satisfactory results particularly for returns with positive skewness or leptokurtic tails. Meanwhile, the VaR forecasts obtained using the Cornish-Fisher method provides a relatively better tracking of the observed returns compared to the other methods, and therefore, has lower forecast error. Our proposed model allows users to determine the value of VaR based on their own risk preferences.
This paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Agricultural Economics Society (Ha... more This paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Agricultural Economics Society (Halifax, June 2004) in a session entitled “What’s Happening in the Co-operative Sector”. Papers presented at CAES meetings are not subject to the journal’s standard refereeing process. The Issue Over the past 25 years, traditional agricultural co-operatives have been challenged by competition from local investor-owned firms and multinational companies, deregulation and globalization of trade, and increased market concentration in suppliers and purchasers. At the same time, co-operatives have constantly been seeking to add value to their member services through expansion and/or adoption of new technology. The capital investment needed for these endeavours has to be financed, and for traditional co-operatives the major source of financing new investments has been long-term borrowing. As a result some co-operatives are characterized by high debt loads, which may result in increased financial ...
The role producer risk preferences on WTP is for sustainable breeding practices addressed in this... more The role producer risk preferences on WTP is for sustainable breeding practices addressed in this paper using stated preference methods. Estimates of WTP amongst beef producers are compared with those the diary sector. Whilst preliminary indicate a relatively lower impact, these effects seem nuanced in dairy relative to beef. This suggests that influence of risk in the producer valuation of new technologies may be commingled with market structure effects.
We study the production efficiency of teff in Ethiopia. Using a large cross-section of teff plots... more We study the production efficiency of teff in Ethiopia. Using a large cross-section of teff plots, we find that teff output could be increased by approximately 25 percent with the available inputs and technology through investments directed to improved gender-sensitive extension service and infrastructure development. The magnitude of technical inefficiency is robust to alternative functional form and various variable specifications. Community discussion groups and distance to the nearest agricultural co-operative are further shown to have a significant effect on technical efficiency. We conclude the paper by discussing the potential policy implications of our findings.
This paper develops a skewness and leptokurtic modified VaR model with a mixture weight parameter... more This paper develops a skewness and leptokurtic modified VaR model with a mixture weight parameter that blends the Cornish-Fisher and EWMA methods. We estimate and evaluate five existing parametric VaR specifications using weekly returns for Canadian feedlot cattle feeding margin data and Maple Leaf Foods stock return data. The estimation of VaR based on EWMA method yields the most satisfactory results particularly for returns with positive skewness or leptokurtic tails. Meanwhile, the VaR forecasts obtained using the Cornish-Fisher method provides a relatively better tracking of the observed returns compared to the other methods, and therefore, has lower forecast error. Our proposed model allows users to determine the value of VaR based on their own risk preferences.
This FARE Share Special Issue is a dedication to the late Dr. Thorald Keith (T.K.) Warley (1930-2... more This FARE Share Special Issue is a dedication to the late Dr. Thorald Keith (T.K.) Warley (1930-2018). Known to most as Sandy, his contribution to the University of Guelph spanned decades, including the roles of professor and chair of the Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics (FARE). Praise for Sandy could fill volumes; we've included just a sampling of remembrances and reflections from colleagues and friends, including past and present faculty and students. You'll read about Sandy's many contributions to their lives, to the University and his extraordinary commitment to the entire agricultural economist community.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
Abstract In this paper, I explore the potential effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on Canadian food... more Abstract In this paper, I explore the potential effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on Canadian food processors. First, COVID‐19 may have an impact on food processing economic activities because of supply and demand shocks. Second, the impact of COVID‐19 on food processing may depend on the type of products and the size of the processors. The effects of measures taken by the government to flatten the epidemiological curve on the economic activities of the food processing sector are uncertain.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
Agricultural policy frameworks such as Growing Forward are intended to enhance the productivity a... more Agricultural policy frameworks such as Growing Forward are intended to enhance the productivity and competitiveness of the Canadian agricultural sector and to stabilize farm income. This paper examines the relationship between production efficiency and government program payments. First, we find evidence of heterogeneity in production efficiency across farms. Second, we find a negative correlation between production efficiency and the share and level of program payments. The result of this study underscores the importance of understanding the link between technical inefficiency and government payments. Les cadres strategiques agricoles comme Cultivons l'avenir existent pour favoriser la productivite et la competitivite du secteur agricole canadien et pour stabiliser les revenus des exploitations agricoles. Cet article examine la relation entre l'efficience de la production et les programmes gouvernementaux de paiements. En premier lieu, nous avons trouve des preuves d'heterogeneite dans l'efficience de la production dans toutes les exploitations agricoles. Ensuite, nous avons identifie une correlation negative entre la production efficiente,et la part et niveau des programmes de paiements. Le resultat de cette etude met en relief l'importance de comprendre le lien entre les inefficiences techniques et les paiements gouvernementaux.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
Bovine Mastitis is one of the most prevalent and costly production diseases in the dairy industry... more Bovine Mastitis is one of the most prevalent and costly production diseases in the dairy industry in Canada and worldwide causing major animal welfare problems, environmental problems, and productivity losses. In this paper, we examine the effects of risk attitudes and social interactions on the willingness to pay (WTP) for genotyping animals for susceptibility to a chronic mastitis trait. We use contingent valuation with double bounded dichotomous choice questions to elicit producers’ WTP. The estimated mean WTP for genotyping is approximately $50 per animal. Compared to the current market prices of commercially available comprehensive genotyping services, this estimate suggests a significant market potential for genotyping to be bundled with economically important disease traits. We also find evidence that both risk attitudes and social interactions have strong effects on the WTP for genotyping. Farmers with higher risk tolerance are willing to pay more for genotyping service. For dairy farmers with more concern about mastitis, risk tolerance has no significant effect on the WTP, while social interactions have a significant effect on the WTP. We also find a strong interaction effect between risk tolerance and social interactions. The findings encourage interest in questions about how risk attitudes, social networks, and their interactions shape the adoption of and the WTP for a novel agricultural technology. La mastite bovine est la maladie de production la plus repandue et la plus couteuse de l'industrie laitiere au Canada et mondialement causant des problemes en ce qui concerne le bien-etre des animaux, l'environnement et la perte de productivite. Cet article examine les effets de l'attitude a l′egard du risque et des interactions sociales concernant la volonte de payer pour le genotypage d'animaux pour le depistage de la susceptibilite a posseder le trait de mastite chronique. L'evaluation contingente avec questions a double proposition dichotomique a ete utilisee afin d'obtenir la volonte de payer des producteurs. La volonte moyenne estimee de payer pour le genotypage s'eleve a approximativement 50 $ par animal. Comparee aux prix courants du marche pour les services commerciaux complets de genotypage, cette estimation suggere un potentiel commercial significatif pour grouper le genotypage a d'autres traits de maladie d'importance economique. Nous trouvons aussi trouve que les attitudes a l′egard du risque et les interactions sociales avaient un impact significatif sur la volonte de payer pour le genotypage. Les fermiers demontrant une grande tolerance au risque sont disposes a payer plus pour les services de genotypage. Pour les producteurs laitiers preoccupes par la mastite, la tolerance vis-a-vis du risque n'a aucun effet sur la volonte de payer, tandis que les interactions sociales en ont une importante. Nous notons aussi un effet significatif d'interaction entre la tolerance pour le risque et les interactions sociales. Les resultats favorisent un questionnement au sujet des attitudes a l′egard du risque, des reseaux sociaux et de leurs interactions, cherchant comment ces derniers guideront l'adoption de nouvelles technologies agricoles et la volonte d'en acquerir.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
We examine the relationship between farm-level scale efficiency and quota purchases in the Ontari... more We examine the relationship between farm-level scale efficiency and quota purchases in the Ontario dairy quota market before and after the implementation of a progressive transfer assessment policy and a price cap policy. We find that scale efficiency has a positive effect on net quota purchases and that the two regulations slowed down this effect. The largest deterrent in the movement of quota from less efficient to more efficient producers occurred after the implementation of the capital asset pricing policy. If the capital asset pricing policy remains in effect, it will likely take a longer time to achieve an efficient allocation of quota across producers in the industry. Nous examinons la relation entre l'efficience d'echelle agricole et les achats de quota au sein du marche des quotas laitiers ontariens, avant et apres l'implantation d'une politique d'evaluation progressive de transfert, et d'une autre de plafonnement des prix. Nous avancons que l'efficience d'echelle a un effet positif sur les achats nets de quota et que les deux politiques ont freine cet effet. La plus grande dissuasion au sein du mouvement des quotas de producteurs moins efficients vers ceux qui le sont plus, survient apres le plafonnement des prix. Si la politique de plafonnement des prix demeure en vigueur, il faudra attendre encore longtemps avant de reussir une allocation efficiente des quotas parmi les producteurs de l'industrie.
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