Conference Presentations by Gilberto Mahumane
Proceedings of 12th World Congress of The RSAI , 2018
We analyze how city size and urban form impacts residential energy use in low-and middle-income c... more We analyze how city size and urban form impacts residential energy use in low-and middle-income countries. Traditionally, energy consumption and emission levels are highest in rich countries, but, nowadays both urban and GHG emission growth is largely driven by countries in the global South. By 2050, around 80% of total urban population is expected to live in cities in low-and middle-income countries. Despite the importance of urban areas for energy use and global emissions, data on urban energy use worldwide are in short supply. The data scarcity is even worse when it comes to urban areas in the developing world. This paper aims to reduce this knowledge gap by presenting new evidence on how city size and urban form impact energy use in the global South. In contrast to most of the energy studies literature on residential energy use in low-and middle-income countries (cf Barnes et al. 2004), we focus on the role of the spatial distribution of population and economic activities on energy consumption and vice versa. Existing urban economics research on the relationship between energy use and city structure suggests that per capita energy consumption decreases when urban density increases. The basic idea underlying this so-called compact city argument is that a higher population density decreases average commuting distance, increases public transport usage, while smaller housing units help to reduce transport and home energy use (Glaeser and Kahn 2010, Muniz and Galindo 2005). But, the evidence for this compact city hypothesis comes almost exclusively from rich countries. In contrast, we focus on low-and middle-income countries. Our dataset combines information at three levels of spatial aggregation: i) 60 low-and middle-income countries; ii) 136 cities in Indonesia and Mozambique; iii) 62 neighborhoods within the metropolitan areas of Yogyakarta (Indonesia) and Maputo (Mozambique). This allows us to combine different levels of aggregation in our analysis, including an assessment of the role of city size, population density, distance from the CBD and commuting behavior within two large metropolitan areas. Furthermore, in contrast to existing studies on the relationship between urbanization and energy across developing countries (cf. Poumanyvong & Kaneko 2010, Martinez-Zarzoso and Maruotti 2011, Sadorsky 2013), we use a sorting model (cf Combes et al. 2008) and an IV regression approach to identify causal mechanisms in the relationship between urbanization and energy use. At all levels of spatial aggregation, we find that in the global South urbanization leads to increasing per capita energy use through an income-effect. This robust positive income effect dominates weak evidence of a negative impact of population density on per capita energy consumption. At the country level, we find no evidence that urbanization has a direct effect on energy use. Yet, for Maputo we found evidence that a 1% increase in commuting distance increases per capita transport energy use with 5%. For Indonesia, our data for Yogyakarta city include evidence that population density has a negative impact on total and dwelling energy consumption per capita, thus lending support to the compact city theory.
Papers by Gilberto Mahumane
research memorandum, May 1, 2015
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2015
This paper presents the first comprehensive Energy Outlook for Mozambique, a country that since l... more This paper presents the first comprehensive Energy Outlook for Mozambique, a country that since long is one of the poorest nations of the world but since recently also developing into a leading energy producer. We present projections until 2030, based on a newly developed integrated long-run scenario model, new national and regional energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure and vehicle ownership. Our analysis shows an emerging ‘energy-dichotomy ’ in Mozambique. On the one hand, the energy sector is characterized by a rapid and huge expansion. Until 2030, exploitation of the country’s reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower is likely to increase primary energy production at least six-fold and probably much more, most of which is destined for export. We show that, as a result, Mozambique is rapidly developing into an important player at international energy markets; it may well ...
Energy Economics, Sep 1, 2016
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Just as with the other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, Mozambique faces ... more Just as with the other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, Mozambique faces severe and interrelated problems of energy and environment linked with the massive consumption of fuel wood biomass. The conventional power grid provides less than 7% of the energy needs for the country's 17 million inhabitants, and about 83% of the energy consumed in the country comes from biomass. Areas around the major urban centres and along the main development corridors are the most affected by energy shortages. This hinders the country's economic and social development as it is generally acknowledged that no development can be sustainable without linking it to energy planning and environmental management. Renewable energy resources can play an important role in the process of development of the country. From the vast renewable energy resources available in the country, solar energy represents one of those with the highest potential. Thus the evaluation of the potential of ...
Sustainability
Parties to the Paris Agreement (PA) have agreed on the goal of limiting the increase in global av... more Parties to the Paris Agreement (PA) have agreed on the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and are pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C. Countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) comprise the main framework used to achieve this. In this context, Mozambique′s NDC includes, amongst other actions, increased renewable energy (RE) generation. This article presents the results of the assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of the Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff (REFIT), using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system model, in order to determine its potential contribution to Mozambique′s NDC’s goals and RE targets. Results from this study show that the REFIT regulation can be expected to contribute to reducing 0.34 MtCO2eq (0.6% of the NDC target for the electricity sector) by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. However, the NDC ambition could be enhanced through the REFIT and contribute to ...
Journal of Energy in Southern Africa
Just as with other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, Mozambique faces seve... more Just as with other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, Mozambique faces severe, interrelated problems of energy and environment linked, with massive consumption of fuel wood biomass. The conventional power grid provides less than 7% of the energy needs for the country’s 17 million inhabitants, and about 83% of the energy consumed in the country comes from biomass. Renewable energy resources can play an important role in the process of development of the country. From the vast renewable energy resources available in the country, solar energy represents one of those with the highest potential. Thus, the evaluation of the potential of solar energy systems in small-scale applications suitable for villages is a strategically good starting point for promotion of sustainable rural development. One of the major impediments in carrying out such studies is the fact that the exact behaviour of solar energy resources throughout the country has not been well studied. In this...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Just as with the other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, Mozambique faces ... more Just as with the other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, Mozambique faces severe and interrelated problems of energy and environment linked with the massive consumption of fuel wood biomass. The conventional power grid provides less than 10% of the energy needs for the country's 20 million inhabitants. About 83% of the energy consumed in the country comes from biomass. Renewable energy resources can play an important role in the process of development of the country. From the vast renewable energy resources available, wind energy represents one of those with a good potential. Thus the evaluation of the potential of wind energy systems is a strategically good point for promotion of a sustainable development of the country. One of the major impediments in carrying out such studies is the fact that the behaviour of wind energy resources throughout the country has not been determined yet. In this paper a general characterisation of the wind energy fields in Mo...
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Conference Presentations by Gilberto Mahumane
Papers by Gilberto Mahumane