This study addresses the challenges and opportunities that small European states face when weighi... more This study addresses the challenges and opportunities that small European states face when weighing their defence industrial policy options. The article builds on a technology–based small state industry governance model by adding a defence industry–specific layer. This model is used to analyse how defence industries of small states could contribute to the European Union common defence industrial policy, and how the latter could likewise be beneficial to small member states. The paper discusses defence industrial policy challenges and opportunities both from the wider European Union and small state perspective. Global and regional geopolitical trends are explored among other specific topics, as are aspects of regional and domestic governance like the market structure, procurement, and R&D. The article concludes that small European states could both win and lose with the establishment of a common defence market, depending on the market design. Ideally, it should be combined with the s...
The Russian federation uses several tools to allow it to place pressure on the western world in a... more The Russian federation uses several tools to allow it to place pressure on the western world in an asymmetric manner, among them being cyber-attacks, economic tools, and information-influence campaigns. These instruments are especially strongly felt in Estonia. This article uses Estonia’s example in order to delve into Russia’s political goals and strategic conduct. Specifically, analysis is provided in regard to the political context, instruments which form part of the ‘information war’, and any effective counter-measures, with all of this being carried out within the theoretical framework of constructivism. As will be argued, the shift from European to Eurasian power and Russia’s carefully crafted management process of not exceeding red lines, as well as its process of exploiting the socio-economic weaknesses of the west all play a relevant role in understanding the political context. As for instruments, Russia has developed tools which can be analysed in terms of strategic conspi...
The Russian Federation has developed a large number of instruments to put pressure on the West us... more The Russian Federation has developed a large number of instruments to put pressure on the West using non-conventional means such as cyber attacks, economic tools and information warfare. Using modern IT technologies in its hybrid activities, Russia, much like China or other authoritarian powers, is trying to challenge the current world order. These instruments are particularly evident in the Baltic States. This article uses Estonia as a case study to inquire into the political goals and strategic conduct of Russia. Specifically, the focus is on the political context, instruments of information war, and available countermeasures. As argued in the current study, the shift from European to Eurasian power, Russia’s careful management and success in avoiding crossing the “red lines” of its adversaries, as well as in exploiting the socioeconomic weaknesses and openness of the West, all play a relevant role in understanding the political context. As for instruments, Russia has developed st...
The article focuses on the ideological pillars of the ISIS or the so-called Islamic State and aim... more The article focuses on the ideological pillars of the ISIS or the so-called Islamic State and aims to explain the ideological core of the ISIS by examining the roots and pillars of this extreme terrorist Jihadists, Wahhabist and Salafist organization. The article seeks and explores the roots in Jihadism, radical form of Salafism and partially radical Arab nationalism, but it also looks partially at the "legacy" of Saddam Hussein's regime (1979–2003) in Iraq (many former high ranked officers of Saddam's military, BAATH party and also several intelligence officers were actively involved in ISIS) and the Arab post-colonial and post-cold war world
Defence policy and related activities, such as territorial defence and comprehensive defence, are... more Defence policy and related activities, such as territorial defence and comprehensive defence, are considered a matter of national priority and consensus in Estonia since its restoration of independence in 1991. The actual meaning and its content have depended on numerous linguistic and cultural factors. Educational traditions and alliance relations have played an important role as well. In some cases, changes in actual defence policy content first required an ability to change military terminology and outlook. The current study analyses the meaning of territorial defence, comprehensive defence and total defence in official documents and based on focus group interviews among officers of BDCOL and EMA.
The present study revolves around the question of the appropriateness of “the White Elephant synd... more The present study revolves around the question of the appropriateness of “the White Elephant syndrome” to characterise the nature of the planned trans-Baltic railway project Rail Baltica (RB) in terms of its initial financing, long-term profitability and symbolic importance. Whereas, in general, the expected outcome of the project goes well together with the EU Cohesion Policy goals, in its concrete application RB could serve as an example of the tendency of politicians and public servants to institutionally lock themselves into certain irrational choices about publicly financed mega-projects. This is what “the White Elephant syndrome” metaphor illustrates. Methodologically, this paper aims to analyse whether RB meets the common criteria of “the White Elephant syndrome” of public investments or if it can be seen as a sustainable and profitable long-term project after the initial investment.
This study aimed to offer an in-depth insight into intellectual dilemmas associated with a compre... more This study aimed to offer an in-depth insight into intellectual dilemmas associated with a comprehensive approach to national defence using Estonia as an example to demonstrate that comprehensive approach in itself may not be enough to feel safe and secure. The authors focused on two specific theoretical questions. First, how security threats are determined in Estonia, including the impact of such a phenomenon as macro-securitization? Second, how various levels of comprehensive approach relate to each other in the way that a shared security culture will be created? In this way, the aim of this article was not only to shake the foundations of national defence in Estonia but also to contribute to the improvement of the current model to ensure that it actually works in practice.
The current study focuses on the Estonian perceptions of security and on the defence situation bo... more The current study focuses on the Estonian perceptions of security and on the defence situation both globally and locally. The dynamic results of the public opinion surveys on security risks conducted in Estonia over the last 10 years (2006-2016) will be presented. In addition, to understand whether some of the security risks could be over- or underestimated in Estonia, these results will be compared with the views expressed recently by the World Economic Forum, particularly the Global Risks Report 2016. Also, the arguments why some topics have played or are currently playing key role in the Estonian security perception will be presented and discussed.
Abstract The Defender 2020 military exercise and its related deployments look fairly reasonable a... more Abstract The Defender 2020 military exercise and its related deployments look fairly reasonable and rational from the perspective of the Baltic States and NATO, but when theoretically analyzing its options left, the Russian political leadership could react severely or enact a series of policies from such an initial “provocation”. More importantly, Russia could perceive that the Baltic Sea Region is being transformed into a potential area for confrontation from which also they could benefit from additional escalation. In the broadest sense, the article tries to both clarify and join the intentions of NATO and the reaction of Russia.
The assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by the United States has initiated debates a... more The assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by the United States has initiated debates about its reverberations on regional and global security. While it could have been a rational policy by the United States on the national level, this action has carried along innovative features defining what is a legally acceptable self-defence that international law would also accommodate. Namely, if the United States can unilaterally and retroactively interpret the meaning of international law in such a way, there are other powers like Russia or China who may wish to take advantage of such a tactic and expand the formerly relatively stable meaning of law unilaterally in line with their own national interests. Russia has previously given high importance in following the Western path and precedences, so even when the current thesis is hypothetical and with high odds in upcoming years, it is worthy of consideration and probability analysis.
2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management (CogSIMA), 2019
A nation-level situation awareness (SA) system will facilitate the making of right decisions by s... more A nation-level situation awareness (SA) system will facilitate the making of right decisions by serving the decision-makers with the information they need. In this paper, we show how the mapping of information flows between governmental institutions allows us to develop such a SA system and continuously improve it by optimizing the movements of information. To this end, we propose a systematization method for the various kinds of information flows, and explain how it helps to reduce their perceived heterogeneity.
This paper is based on an article by Edoardo Ongaro published in the same issue of Administrative... more This paper is based on an article by Edoardo Ongaro published in the same issue of Administrative Culture and discusses the implications of the new model of governance emerging from the fiscal crisis and administrative reforms. In particular, it addresses the questions relating to the identity of the European Union in the context of the cuts of public budgets that the ECB and the Troika have requested from certain euro-zone countries. Following Ongaro, these interventions will be teated through the theoretical frameworks that policy transfer, Europeanisation, supranational governance and global institutionalism offer. As a further alternative, neoliberal imperialism will be brought in. The paper argues that embedded within the logic of the interventionist measures there are two features which deserve attention. The first concerns the coercive form that does not bring to mind the “normal” one characteristic to the EU legal system but with its peculiar bargaining logic rather reminds ...
The Russian Federation has managed to take the world by surprise: first, by conducting a successf... more The Russian Federation has managed to take the world by surprise: first, by conducting a successful rescue operation in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and second, by having become an indispensable power broker in the wider Middle Eastern region. As far as Syria is concerned, by the end of 2019, Assad’s regime had effectively been saved by Russia’s political and military support in the form of its direct intervention in the Syrian Civil War. Russia’s decisive action in this situation enhanced its status throughout the Middle East region. This article aims to ascertain to what extent has Russia’s conduct merely taken advantage of the vacuum left by the U.S. and the West, and to what extent can it be considered a premeditated and carefully considered plan that fits within Russia’s wider strategic objectives. First, the authors will take a closer look at the strategic assumptions that have enabled Russia to enhance its status in the region, focusing in particular on those...
The article focuses on the ideological pillars of the ISIS or the so-called Islamic State and aim... more The article focuses on the ideological pillars of the ISIS or the so-called Islamic State and aims to explain the ideological core of the ISIS by examining the roots and pillars of this extreme terrorist Jihadists, Wahhabist and Salafist organization. The article seeks and explores the roots in Jihadism, radical form of Salafism and partially radical Arab nationalism, but it also looks partially at the "legacy" of Saddam Hussein's regime (1979-2003) in Iraq (many former high ranked officers of Saddam's military, BAATH party and also several intelligence officers were actively involved in ISIS) and the Arab post-colonial and post-cold war world.
This study addresses the challenges and opportunities that small European states face when weighi... more This study addresses the challenges and opportunities that small European states face when weighing their defence industrial policy options. The article builds on a technology–based small state industry governance model by adding a defence industry–specific layer. This model is used to analyse how defence industries of small states could contribute to the European Union common defence industrial policy, and how the latter could likewise be beneficial to small member states. The paper discusses defence industrial policy challenges and opportunities both from the wider European Union and small state perspective. Global and regional geopolitical trends are explored among other specific topics, as are aspects of regional and domestic governance like the market structure, procurement, and R&D. The article concludes that small European states could both win and lose with the establishment of a common defence market, depending on the market design. Ideally, it should be combined with the s...
The Russian federation uses several tools to allow it to place pressure on the western world in a... more The Russian federation uses several tools to allow it to place pressure on the western world in an asymmetric manner, among them being cyber-attacks, economic tools, and information-influence campaigns. These instruments are especially strongly felt in Estonia. This article uses Estonia’s example in order to delve into Russia’s political goals and strategic conduct. Specifically, analysis is provided in regard to the political context, instruments which form part of the ‘information war’, and any effective counter-measures, with all of this being carried out within the theoretical framework of constructivism. As will be argued, the shift from European to Eurasian power and Russia’s carefully crafted management process of not exceeding red lines, as well as its process of exploiting the socio-economic weaknesses of the west all play a relevant role in understanding the political context. As for instruments, Russia has developed tools which can be analysed in terms of strategic conspi...
The Russian Federation has developed a large number of instruments to put pressure on the West us... more The Russian Federation has developed a large number of instruments to put pressure on the West using non-conventional means such as cyber attacks, economic tools and information warfare. Using modern IT technologies in its hybrid activities, Russia, much like China or other authoritarian powers, is trying to challenge the current world order. These instruments are particularly evident in the Baltic States. This article uses Estonia as a case study to inquire into the political goals and strategic conduct of Russia. Specifically, the focus is on the political context, instruments of information war, and available countermeasures. As argued in the current study, the shift from European to Eurasian power, Russia’s careful management and success in avoiding crossing the “red lines” of its adversaries, as well as in exploiting the socioeconomic weaknesses and openness of the West, all play a relevant role in understanding the political context. As for instruments, Russia has developed st...
The article focuses on the ideological pillars of the ISIS or the so-called Islamic State and aim... more The article focuses on the ideological pillars of the ISIS or the so-called Islamic State and aims to explain the ideological core of the ISIS by examining the roots and pillars of this extreme terrorist Jihadists, Wahhabist and Salafist organization. The article seeks and explores the roots in Jihadism, radical form of Salafism and partially radical Arab nationalism, but it also looks partially at the "legacy" of Saddam Hussein's regime (1979–2003) in Iraq (many former high ranked officers of Saddam's military, BAATH party and also several intelligence officers were actively involved in ISIS) and the Arab post-colonial and post-cold war world
Defence policy and related activities, such as territorial defence and comprehensive defence, are... more Defence policy and related activities, such as territorial defence and comprehensive defence, are considered a matter of national priority and consensus in Estonia since its restoration of independence in 1991. The actual meaning and its content have depended on numerous linguistic and cultural factors. Educational traditions and alliance relations have played an important role as well. In some cases, changes in actual defence policy content first required an ability to change military terminology and outlook. The current study analyses the meaning of territorial defence, comprehensive defence and total defence in official documents and based on focus group interviews among officers of BDCOL and EMA.
The present study revolves around the question of the appropriateness of “the White Elephant synd... more The present study revolves around the question of the appropriateness of “the White Elephant syndrome” to characterise the nature of the planned trans-Baltic railway project Rail Baltica (RB) in terms of its initial financing, long-term profitability and symbolic importance. Whereas, in general, the expected outcome of the project goes well together with the EU Cohesion Policy goals, in its concrete application RB could serve as an example of the tendency of politicians and public servants to institutionally lock themselves into certain irrational choices about publicly financed mega-projects. This is what “the White Elephant syndrome” metaphor illustrates. Methodologically, this paper aims to analyse whether RB meets the common criteria of “the White Elephant syndrome” of public investments or if it can be seen as a sustainable and profitable long-term project after the initial investment.
This study aimed to offer an in-depth insight into intellectual dilemmas associated with a compre... more This study aimed to offer an in-depth insight into intellectual dilemmas associated with a comprehensive approach to national defence using Estonia as an example to demonstrate that comprehensive approach in itself may not be enough to feel safe and secure. The authors focused on two specific theoretical questions. First, how security threats are determined in Estonia, including the impact of such a phenomenon as macro-securitization? Second, how various levels of comprehensive approach relate to each other in the way that a shared security culture will be created? In this way, the aim of this article was not only to shake the foundations of national defence in Estonia but also to contribute to the improvement of the current model to ensure that it actually works in practice.
The current study focuses on the Estonian perceptions of security and on the defence situation bo... more The current study focuses on the Estonian perceptions of security and on the defence situation both globally and locally. The dynamic results of the public opinion surveys on security risks conducted in Estonia over the last 10 years (2006-2016) will be presented. In addition, to understand whether some of the security risks could be over- or underestimated in Estonia, these results will be compared with the views expressed recently by the World Economic Forum, particularly the Global Risks Report 2016. Also, the arguments why some topics have played or are currently playing key role in the Estonian security perception will be presented and discussed.
Abstract The Defender 2020 military exercise and its related deployments look fairly reasonable a... more Abstract The Defender 2020 military exercise and its related deployments look fairly reasonable and rational from the perspective of the Baltic States and NATO, but when theoretically analyzing its options left, the Russian political leadership could react severely or enact a series of policies from such an initial “provocation”. More importantly, Russia could perceive that the Baltic Sea Region is being transformed into a potential area for confrontation from which also they could benefit from additional escalation. In the broadest sense, the article tries to both clarify and join the intentions of NATO and the reaction of Russia.
The assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by the United States has initiated debates a... more The assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by the United States has initiated debates about its reverberations on regional and global security. While it could have been a rational policy by the United States on the national level, this action has carried along innovative features defining what is a legally acceptable self-defence that international law would also accommodate. Namely, if the United States can unilaterally and retroactively interpret the meaning of international law in such a way, there are other powers like Russia or China who may wish to take advantage of such a tactic and expand the formerly relatively stable meaning of law unilaterally in line with their own national interests. Russia has previously given high importance in following the Western path and precedences, so even when the current thesis is hypothetical and with high odds in upcoming years, it is worthy of consideration and probability analysis.
2019 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management (CogSIMA), 2019
A nation-level situation awareness (SA) system will facilitate the making of right decisions by s... more A nation-level situation awareness (SA) system will facilitate the making of right decisions by serving the decision-makers with the information they need. In this paper, we show how the mapping of information flows between governmental institutions allows us to develop such a SA system and continuously improve it by optimizing the movements of information. To this end, we propose a systematization method for the various kinds of information flows, and explain how it helps to reduce their perceived heterogeneity.
This paper is based on an article by Edoardo Ongaro published in the same issue of Administrative... more This paper is based on an article by Edoardo Ongaro published in the same issue of Administrative Culture and discusses the implications of the new model of governance emerging from the fiscal crisis and administrative reforms. In particular, it addresses the questions relating to the identity of the European Union in the context of the cuts of public budgets that the ECB and the Troika have requested from certain euro-zone countries. Following Ongaro, these interventions will be teated through the theoretical frameworks that policy transfer, Europeanisation, supranational governance and global institutionalism offer. As a further alternative, neoliberal imperialism will be brought in. The paper argues that embedded within the logic of the interventionist measures there are two features which deserve attention. The first concerns the coercive form that does not bring to mind the “normal” one characteristic to the EU legal system but with its peculiar bargaining logic rather reminds ...
The Russian Federation has managed to take the world by surprise: first, by conducting a successf... more The Russian Federation has managed to take the world by surprise: first, by conducting a successful rescue operation in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and second, by having become an indispensable power broker in the wider Middle Eastern region. As far as Syria is concerned, by the end of 2019, Assad’s regime had effectively been saved by Russia’s political and military support in the form of its direct intervention in the Syrian Civil War. Russia’s decisive action in this situation enhanced its status throughout the Middle East region. This article aims to ascertain to what extent has Russia’s conduct merely taken advantage of the vacuum left by the U.S. and the West, and to what extent can it be considered a premeditated and carefully considered plan that fits within Russia’s wider strategic objectives. First, the authors will take a closer look at the strategic assumptions that have enabled Russia to enhance its status in the region, focusing in particular on those...
The article focuses on the ideological pillars of the ISIS or the so-called Islamic State and aim... more The article focuses on the ideological pillars of the ISIS or the so-called Islamic State and aims to explain the ideological core of the ISIS by examining the roots and pillars of this extreme terrorist Jihadists, Wahhabist and Salafist organization. The article seeks and explores the roots in Jihadism, radical form of Salafism and partially radical Arab nationalism, but it also looks partially at the "legacy" of Saddam Hussein's regime (1979-2003) in Iraq (many former high ranked officers of Saddam's military, BAATH party and also several intelligence officers were actively involved in ISIS) and the Arab post-colonial and post-cold war world.
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Papers by Illimar Ploom