PIDS Policy Notes are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on certain policy issues.... more PIDS Policy Notes are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on certain policy issues. The treatise is holistic in approach and aims to provide useful inputs for decisionmaking. The authors are Supervising Research Specialist and President, respectively, at the PIDS. This Notes is based on PIDS Discussion Paper Series No. 2012-39 titled “Unfair trade practices in the Philippines” written by A. Abad, K. Gonzales, M. Rosellon, and J. Yap. The authors gratefully acknowledge the excellent research assistance of Kris A. Francisco, Research Analyst II at PIDS. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of PIDS or any of the study’s sponsors. Policy Notes
Many have argued that the major source of the existing global macroeconomic imbalances are the tw... more Many have argued that the major source of the existing global macroeconomic imbalances are the twin deficits of the United States (US). However, there is still a debate about whether the global imbalances indeed pose a significant threat to the world economy. This paper analyzes whether current efforts in East Asia in terms of financial and monetary cooperation and rebalancing of economic growth could significantly mitigate the adverse impacts of a global system that will still be dominated by the US dollar in the foreseeable future. It also explains why the People’s Republic of China is unlikely to make significant unilateral adjustments to reduce global macroeconomic imbalances.
After ratifying the Paris Agreement in March 2017, the Philippine Government reviewed its Nationa... more After ratifying the Paris Agreement in March 2017, the Philippine Government reviewed its Nationally Determined Contribution that was submitted in October, 2015. This resulted in a revised NDC that was communicated to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 15 April 2021. The country commits to a projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction and avoidance of 75% referenced against a projected business as-usual (BAU) cumulative emission of 3,340.3 MtCO2e for the period 2020-2030. However, even if a significant part is conditional on financial assistance from multilateral agencies, the commitment is unrealistic given past trends in GHG emissions and projections under the Clean Energy Scenario of the Department of Energy. If the Philippine Government cannot adjust the NDC, it can improve prospects of compliance by considering a) the post-pandemic trend in GHG emissions, i.e. lower the BAU scenario; b) an expanded policy space that covers all sources of...
Monitoring the behavior of potential output helps policymakers implement appropriate policies in ... more Monitoring the behavior of potential output helps policymakers implement appropriate policies in response to an economic crisis. In the short-run, estimates of the output gap can guide the timing of the implementation and withdrawal of stimulus measures. In the medium- to long-term, these estimates can also provide the basis for gauging productive potential and, hence, guide policies to support sustainable, non-inflationary output growth. In this paper, we investigate the post-crisis behavior of potential output in emerging East Asian economies by employing the Markov-switching model to account for structural breaks. Results show that after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, potential output in Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea (Korea); Singapore; and Malaysia reverted to levels consistent with trends prior to the crisis. While there were permanent drops in potential output for both Thailand and Indonesia, growth rates returned to pre-crisis trends. The People’s Republic of C...
The paper mainly discusses the issues and policies relating to inequality in Southeast Asia. Poli... more The paper mainly discusses the issues and policies relating to inequality in Southeast Asia. Policies to reduce inequality include more efficient fiscal policies, improve infrastructure and generating more employment-friendly economic growth.
Macroeconometric models may have lost its fame in the past decade; nevertheless it has remained u... more Macroeconometric models may have lost its fame in the past decade; nevertheless it has remained useful in guiding policy decisions and forecasting. This paper is concerned with its estimation and its uses regarding stabilization policies. Improvement in the present Philippine macroeconomic models is eluded in three general areas.
PIDS Policy Notes are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on certain policy issues.... more PIDS Policy Notes are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on certain policy issues. The treatise is holistic in approach and aims to provide useful inputs for decisionmaking. The author is President of the Institute. He gratefully acknowledges the excellent research assistance of Kris A. Francisco, Research Analyst II at PIDS. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of PIDS or any of the study’s sponsors. In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial and economic crisis, capital flows to emerging countries surged again. There have been similar episodes in the past three decades, including one that culminated in the 1997–98 East Asian financial crisis. The problems that have emerged in the various episodes are like a refrain in a song: appreciating currencies that could lead to exchange rate overshooting, pressure on asset prices, which can result in bubbles that amplify financial fragility and crisis risk, and possibility of ove...
PIDS Policy Notes are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on certain policy issues.... more PIDS Policy Notes are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on certain policy issues. The treatise is holistic in approach and aims to provide useful inputs for decisionmaking. The authors are Supervising Research Specialist and President, respectively, at the PIDS. This Notes is based on PIDS Discussion Paper Series No. 2012-39 titled “Unfair trade practices in the Philippines” written by A. Abad, K. Gonzales, M. Rosellon, and J. Yap. The authors gratefully acknowledge the excellent research assistance of Kris A. Francisco, Research Analyst II at PIDS. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of PIDS or any of the study’s sponsors. Policy Notes
Many have argued that the major source of the existing global macroeconomic imbalances are the tw... more Many have argued that the major source of the existing global macroeconomic imbalances are the twin deficits of the United States (US). However, there is still a debate about whether the global imbalances indeed pose a significant threat to the world economy. This paper analyzes whether current efforts in East Asia in terms of financial and monetary cooperation and rebalancing of economic growth could significantly mitigate the adverse impacts of a global system that will still be dominated by the US dollar in the foreseeable future. It also explains why the People’s Republic of China is unlikely to make significant unilateral adjustments to reduce global macroeconomic imbalances.
After ratifying the Paris Agreement in March 2017, the Philippine Government reviewed its Nationa... more After ratifying the Paris Agreement in March 2017, the Philippine Government reviewed its Nationally Determined Contribution that was submitted in October, 2015. This resulted in a revised NDC that was communicated to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 15 April 2021. The country commits to a projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction and avoidance of 75% referenced against a projected business as-usual (BAU) cumulative emission of 3,340.3 MtCO2e for the period 2020-2030. However, even if a significant part is conditional on financial assistance from multilateral agencies, the commitment is unrealistic given past trends in GHG emissions and projections under the Clean Energy Scenario of the Department of Energy. If the Philippine Government cannot adjust the NDC, it can improve prospects of compliance by considering a) the post-pandemic trend in GHG emissions, i.e. lower the BAU scenario; b) an expanded policy space that covers all sources of...
Monitoring the behavior of potential output helps policymakers implement appropriate policies in ... more Monitoring the behavior of potential output helps policymakers implement appropriate policies in response to an economic crisis. In the short-run, estimates of the output gap can guide the timing of the implementation and withdrawal of stimulus measures. In the medium- to long-term, these estimates can also provide the basis for gauging productive potential and, hence, guide policies to support sustainable, non-inflationary output growth. In this paper, we investigate the post-crisis behavior of potential output in emerging East Asian economies by employing the Markov-switching model to account for structural breaks. Results show that after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, potential output in Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea (Korea); Singapore; and Malaysia reverted to levels consistent with trends prior to the crisis. While there were permanent drops in potential output for both Thailand and Indonesia, growth rates returned to pre-crisis trends. The People’s Republic of C...
The paper mainly discusses the issues and policies relating to inequality in Southeast Asia. Poli... more The paper mainly discusses the issues and policies relating to inequality in Southeast Asia. Policies to reduce inequality include more efficient fiscal policies, improve infrastructure and generating more employment-friendly economic growth.
Macroeconometric models may have lost its fame in the past decade; nevertheless it has remained u... more Macroeconometric models may have lost its fame in the past decade; nevertheless it has remained useful in guiding policy decisions and forecasting. This paper is concerned with its estimation and its uses regarding stabilization policies. Improvement in the present Philippine macroeconomic models is eluded in three general areas.
PIDS Policy Notes are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on certain policy issues.... more PIDS Policy Notes are observations/analyses written by PIDS researchers on certain policy issues. The treatise is holistic in approach and aims to provide useful inputs for decisionmaking. The author is President of the Institute. He gratefully acknowledges the excellent research assistance of Kris A. Francisco, Research Analyst II at PIDS. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of PIDS or any of the study’s sponsors. In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial and economic crisis, capital flows to emerging countries surged again. There have been similar episodes in the past three decades, including one that culminated in the 1997–98 East Asian financial crisis. The problems that have emerged in the various episodes are like a refrain in a song: appreciating currencies that could lead to exchange rate overshooting, pressure on asset prices, which can result in bubbles that amplify financial fragility and crisis risk, and possibility of ove...
Uploads