Senior Research Associate at UK Defence Forum. Contributor and Advisory Board member of Geopolitica journal. Contributor to Foreign Policy Research Centre, New Delhi.Previously, professor, Middle East Regional Studies Program, US Army War College. Instructor, US Army Intelligence Center. Guest lecturer, DISAM, Wright - Patterson AFB. Guest lecturer, Cultural Knowledge Consortium, US Defense Department. Recipient of The Order of St. Maurice from the U.S. National Infantry Association. Website https://infantryassn.com/. Editorial panel, EDGE New Voices international essay competition 2020
Geopolitics examines the counter-intuitive nature of history. As the French writer, Jean-Baptiste... more Geopolitics examines the counter-intuitive nature of history. As the French writer, Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote in 1849, "The more things change, the more they stay the same." i In the dynamics of international politics, the one constant is "questions of influence and power over space and territory" on the foreign policy a state pursues. The questions led stronger states to impose "world orders" to maintain their ascendency
Russia is at a strategic disadvantage in the Baltic Sea, one which NATO seeks to exploit. “Russia... more Russia is at a strategic disadvantage in the Baltic Sea, one which NATO seeks to exploit. “Russia’s maritime geography has turned disadvantageous since 1991. The Cold War–era Soviet and Warsaw Pact coast, from which the Soviets staged their power projection against NATO, has been reduced to small pieces of Russian real estate in the St. Petersburg region of the Eastern Gulf of Finland and the Kaliningrad exclave. These are further isolated by the maritime borders of the surrounding states. Finland and Sweden joining NATO has turned the Baltic into a NATO lake. In a potential Great Northern War, what would Russia's strategy be - and can it succeed?
Russia's Black Sea Fleet is one of Moscow's principle weapons for defeating Ukraine militarily th... more Russia's Black Sea Fleet is one of Moscow's principle weapons for defeating Ukraine militarily thereby defeating the U.S. geopolitically. For Washington, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is the proverbial fly in the ointment capable of upending the unipolar world order created after 911 establishing the U.S. as the world's hegemon.
The Journal of Social Political and Economic Studies, Jul 1, 1998
Joseph E. Fallon' Rye, New York The author surveys the anachronistic constitutional status of... more Joseph E. Fallon' Rye, New York The author surveys the anachronistic constitutional status of the diverse U.S. insular "territories" and finds that these vary widely many of them having been granted extra-Constitutional privileges superior to those possessed by the states of the Union. Key Words: U.S. Territories, U.S. Constitution, U.S. Nationality, International Treaties Historically, a U.S. territory was a land with a population too small and scattered to govern itself as a state and therefore was administered by the federal government. But most importantly, a U.S. territory was considered to be, above all else, a temporary status. Based upon the principles of the Northwest Ordinance of 1787 principles implemented by the federal administrations of George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and James Madison States were to be carved out of existing territories and admitted to the Union on the basis of equality with existing states. This was the case with the Old Northwest Territory, the Old Southwest Territory, Louisiana Territory, Oregon Territory, and Mexican Cession. Since a territorial status was temporary, territories which did not become States either became independent countries - Cuba in 1903 and the Philippines in 1946 - or were transferred, in whole or in part, to a foreign power. For example, the northwest portion of the Louisiana Territory (1818),2 the northeast portion of the State of Maine (1842),3 the northern half of the Oregon Territory (1846),4 and one-third of the Alaskan panhandle (1903)5 were transferred to the United Kingdom; Okinawa (1972) was transferred to Japan,6 and the Panama Canal and the Canal Zone Territory (1978) were transferred to Panama.' (See Table 1, "Final Status of Territories Not Achieving Statehood.") However, these historical principles have not been applied to the present-day U.S. territories. Today's Insular Territories As a result of the Spanish-American War of 1898, the United States acquired territories, such as Cuba and the Philippines, which were deemed unlikely to become States because they were geographically remote and/or their cultures differed significantly from that of the United States. To determine the administrative status of such possessions, the U.S. Supreme Court promulgated the "doctrine of incorporation" in a series of rulings between 1901 and 1922 known as the "Insular Cases." According to these court decisions, the U.S. Constitution does not fully apply to a U.S. territory until it has been "incorporated" into the Union. However, the Court never precisiely defined when "incorporation" might be deemed to have occurred. While the "doctrine of incorporation" granted Congress vast powers to administer U.S. territories, it did not alter the temporary nature of a territorial status, and did not recognize any permanent political status other than Statehood. All this changed when Congress radically altered the political structure of the United States, first with Puerto Rico in 1952, then with the creation of the United Nations Strategic Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands in 1986. Claiming the power, under the "doctrine of incorporation" and Article IV, Section 3 (2) of the U.S. Constitution, "to dispose of and make all needful Rules and Regulations respecting the Territory or other Property belonging to the United States", Congress replaced the well-defined Union of States - by which each State, regardless of territorial size, population, or date of admission, possessed equal powers - with a ambiguous political system. The "Union" now consists of a political collation of entities of unequal power, comprising the 50 States and a hierarchy of eight territories. This is illustrated in Chart 1, "The General Legal Categories Constituting the Hierarchical Political Structure of the USA." The Political Hierarchy within the U.S. Territories The U.S. territories consist of (in descending order of political power): three "free associations", the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau, whose inhabitants are citizens of their respective republics, not the United States; two "commonwealths", Puerto Rico and the Northern Marianas, whose inhabitants are U. …
The Journal of Social Political and Economic Studies, 1997
The author traces the demographic history of the United States with particular reference to immig... more The author traces the demographic history of the United States with particular reference to immigration and the impact of changes in the ethnic pattern of post-World War II immigrants on the cultural, fiscal, and economic condition of the United States. Consideration is also given to the constitutional implications of the privileges extended to U.S. territories in the Pacific. Key Words: Demography, Migration, U.S. Immigration Policy, Pacific territories, Bi-lingualism, Multi-Culturalism and Crime During the past thirty-two years, Congress has enacted laws on immigration, citizenship, and territorial powers which are deconstructing the United States as both a "European" nation and a federal polity. For nearly two hundred after its independence from Great Britain in 1783, the United States was demographically a "European" nation with never less than 81 percent of the population being of European, and overwhelmingly Northern European, ancestry. As recently as 1950, European-Americans still constituted 90 percent of the total population of the United States. The Changed Pattern of Immigration But all this has changed under the continuing impact of the 1965 Immigration and Naturalization Act Amendments. The Congressional sponsors of this legislation publicly and repeatedly told the citizens of the United States it: (1) would not increase the annual levels of immigration, (2) would not lower the standards for admission, (3) would not redirect immigration away from Europe, and (4) would not alter the demographic make-up of the United States. For example, Senator Robert Kennedy declared "the new immigration act would not have any significant effect on the ethnic composition of the U.S."1 His brother, Senator Edward Kennedy, floor manager of the bill in the Senate, asserted that "This bill is not concerned with increasing immigration to this country, nor will it lower any of the high standards we apply in selection of immigrants."2 And Representative Emanuel Celler, the dean of the House in 1965 and a Congressional opponent of U. S. immigration policy since 1924, insisted "the effect of the bill would be 'quite insignificant' on U. S. population" and "that the bill would not let in 'great numbers of immigrants from anywhere', including Africa and Asia".3 What the Senators and the Congressman emphatically proclaimed as truth proved to be totally untrue. Between 1968, the year when the 1965 immigration law fully took effect, and 1996, the annual level of legal immigration skyrocketed from approximately 300,000 to nearly one million. During the 147 years between 1820 and 1967, of the 44 million immigrants legally admitted to the United States 80 percent came from Europe while another 9 percent came from Canada.4 As a result of the 1965 immigration act, of the more than 19 million immigrants legally admitted to the United States in the 28 years between 1968 and 1996 approximately 83 percent came from somewhere other than Europe or Canada. Asia and the Pacific islands accounted for more than six million or 34 percent of the total; Latin America and the Caribbean islands accounted for almost nine million or 46 percent, and Africa accounted for nearly half a million or about 3 percent.5 During the last 28 years, immigration from Europe totaled less than 3 million or barely 15 percent of all legal immigration while immigration from Canada amounted to less than half a million or less than 3 percent of the total. This decline from the 1820-1967 levels is more pronounced than these statistics reveal. While immigration from Asia means ethnic Asian immigrants, and immigration from Latin America means, with the exception of Brazil and Haiti, "ethnic" Hispanic immigrants, immigration from Europe and Canada does not mean ethnic European immigrants. Africans, Asians, and Latin Americans are able to immigrate to various European countries, as well as to Canada, then remigrate to the United States under the quotas for those countries. …
... the twelfth century of English nationalism, a phenomenon that did not emerge until the latesi... more ... the twelfth century of English nationalism, a phenomenon that did not emerge until the latesixteenth century. ... Second, the failed proposal of the past, unification of Northern Ireland with the Repub lic of ... and the failed policy of the pres ent, continuing the status quo in Northern Ire ...
The goal of the geopolitics pursued by China under President Xi Jinping is to remake internationa... more The goal of the geopolitics pursued by China under President Xi Jinping is to remake international relations into a China-centric, hierarchical, new world order consisting of China as the paramount power interacting with tributary states. It is based on the ancient Chinese concept of tianxia. China’s foreign policy is “politics being the continuation of war by other means.” Each of the three main campaigns launched by President Xi Jinjiang, BRI, “made in China 2025”, and world dominance in AI by 2030, have dual civilian/military applications. Through this duality China seeks to impose tianxia, Chinese hegemony, on the world as Beijing has already imposed it on Uighurs, Tibetans, and Hong Kong.
Foreign Policy Research Centre, India issue Number 44, 2020
In 2013, China launched an ambitious program – OBOR, the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative. It was... more In 2013, China launched an ambitious program – OBOR, the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative. It was an unprecedented attempt by one country to financially reestablish the old Silk Road; to create a new world order. Beijing marketed OBOR as an economic undertaking that is a “win-win” proposition for both donor and recipients. In practice, OBOR was less about economics and more about geo-political strategy to make China the world’s principle power, economically, militarily, and politically. But Beijing overreached, resulting in a backlash; one that threatens the viability of OBOR and the stability of China.
By investing between one and eight trillion dollars in the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative (OBOR,... more By investing between one and eight trillion dollars in the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative (OBOR, also known as the Belt and Road Initiative, BRI), Beijing sought to elevate China to the world’s leading economy by financing land and sea projects, such as airports, pipelines, roads, railroads, sea ports, and shipping lanes, to link the infrastructures and economies of Asia, Africa, and Europe to China. Joseph E Fallon suggests its over-reach is becoming apparent
In the aftermath of 9/11, Syria was initially treated as an "ally" by Washington in the war again... more In the aftermath of 9/11, Syria was initially treated as an "ally" by Washington in the war against al-Qaeda and a partner in US policy of rendition. But within months, Damascus was declared a "foe", a "rogue nation" that sponsors terrorism. In April 2002, President Bush stated that "Syria [had] to decide which side of the war against terror it is on." Relations between Washington and Damascus rapidly deteriorated as the U.S. viewed Syria as a "threat" to the region and imposed sanctions on Damascus
To address the ecological crisis threatening indigenous peoples in the Arctic region, the Arctic ... more To address the ecological crisis threatening indigenous peoples in the Arctic region, the Arctic Council, member and observer states, must first recognize preservation of the environment takes precedence over economic development, argues Joseph E Fallon, U K Defence Forum Senior Research Associate
The first island chain, the most important of the three, is 700 nautical miles off the coast of C... more The first island chain, the most important of the three, is 700 nautical miles off the coast of China and extends from the Kuriles to Japan to the Ryukyus to Okinawa to Taiwan to the Philippines to Malaysia and encloses the East China and South China Seas. From here, the U.S. could blockade China's ports, neutralise China's navy, and cripple China's economy. The second island chain extends as far as 1800 nautical miles from China's coast stretching from Japan to Guam to Palau to Indonesia. The third island chain runs from the Aleutian Islands to the Hawaiian Islands to the Line Islands to Tonga to New Zealand. If China is to become the dominant power in Asia amd a world power, it must first break the maritime containment imposed by these three island chains. Here's how it might proceed.
Geopolitics examines the counter-intuitive nature of history. As the French writer, Jean-Baptiste... more Geopolitics examines the counter-intuitive nature of history. As the French writer, Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr wrote in 1849, "The more things change, the more they stay the same." i In the dynamics of international politics, the one constant is "questions of influence and power over space and territory" on the foreign policy a state pursues. The questions led stronger states to impose "world orders" to maintain their ascendency
Russia is at a strategic disadvantage in the Baltic Sea, one which NATO seeks to exploit. “Russia... more Russia is at a strategic disadvantage in the Baltic Sea, one which NATO seeks to exploit. “Russia’s maritime geography has turned disadvantageous since 1991. The Cold War–era Soviet and Warsaw Pact coast, from which the Soviets staged their power projection against NATO, has been reduced to small pieces of Russian real estate in the St. Petersburg region of the Eastern Gulf of Finland and the Kaliningrad exclave. These are further isolated by the maritime borders of the surrounding states. Finland and Sweden joining NATO has turned the Baltic into a NATO lake. In a potential Great Northern War, what would Russia's strategy be - and can it succeed?
Russia's Black Sea Fleet is one of Moscow's principle weapons for defeating Ukraine militarily th... more Russia's Black Sea Fleet is one of Moscow's principle weapons for defeating Ukraine militarily thereby defeating the U.S. geopolitically. For Washington, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is the proverbial fly in the ointment capable of upending the unipolar world order created after 911 establishing the U.S. as the world's hegemon.
The Journal of Social Political and Economic Studies, Jul 1, 1998
Joseph E. Fallon' Rye, New York The author surveys the anachronistic constitutional status of... more Joseph E. Fallon' Rye, New York The author surveys the anachronistic constitutional status of the diverse U.S. insular "territories" and finds that these vary widely many of them having been granted extra-Constitutional privileges superior to those possessed by the states of the Union. Key Words: U.S. Territories, U.S. Constitution, U.S. Nationality, International Treaties Historically, a U.S. territory was a land with a population too small and scattered to govern itself as a state and therefore was administered by the federal government. But most importantly, a U.S. territory was considered to be, above all else, a temporary status. Based upon the principles of the Northwest Ordinance of 1787 principles implemented by the federal administrations of George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and James Madison States were to be carved out of existing territories and admitted to the Union on the basis of equality with existing states. This was the case with the Old Northwest Territory, the Old Southwest Territory, Louisiana Territory, Oregon Territory, and Mexican Cession. Since a territorial status was temporary, territories which did not become States either became independent countries - Cuba in 1903 and the Philippines in 1946 - or were transferred, in whole or in part, to a foreign power. For example, the northwest portion of the Louisiana Territory (1818),2 the northeast portion of the State of Maine (1842),3 the northern half of the Oregon Territory (1846),4 and one-third of the Alaskan panhandle (1903)5 were transferred to the United Kingdom; Okinawa (1972) was transferred to Japan,6 and the Panama Canal and the Canal Zone Territory (1978) were transferred to Panama.' (See Table 1, "Final Status of Territories Not Achieving Statehood.") However, these historical principles have not been applied to the present-day U.S. territories. Today's Insular Territories As a result of the Spanish-American War of 1898, the United States acquired territories, such as Cuba and the Philippines, which were deemed unlikely to become States because they were geographically remote and/or their cultures differed significantly from that of the United States. To determine the administrative status of such possessions, the U.S. Supreme Court promulgated the "doctrine of incorporation" in a series of rulings between 1901 and 1922 known as the "Insular Cases." According to these court decisions, the U.S. Constitution does not fully apply to a U.S. territory until it has been "incorporated" into the Union. However, the Court never precisiely defined when "incorporation" might be deemed to have occurred. While the "doctrine of incorporation" granted Congress vast powers to administer U.S. territories, it did not alter the temporary nature of a territorial status, and did not recognize any permanent political status other than Statehood. All this changed when Congress radically altered the political structure of the United States, first with Puerto Rico in 1952, then with the creation of the United Nations Strategic Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands in 1986. Claiming the power, under the "doctrine of incorporation" and Article IV, Section 3 (2) of the U.S. Constitution, "to dispose of and make all needful Rules and Regulations respecting the Territory or other Property belonging to the United States", Congress replaced the well-defined Union of States - by which each State, regardless of territorial size, population, or date of admission, possessed equal powers - with a ambiguous political system. The "Union" now consists of a political collation of entities of unequal power, comprising the 50 States and a hierarchy of eight territories. This is illustrated in Chart 1, "The General Legal Categories Constituting the Hierarchical Political Structure of the USA." The Political Hierarchy within the U.S. Territories The U.S. territories consist of (in descending order of political power): three "free associations", the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau, whose inhabitants are citizens of their respective republics, not the United States; two "commonwealths", Puerto Rico and the Northern Marianas, whose inhabitants are U. …
The Journal of Social Political and Economic Studies, 1997
The author traces the demographic history of the United States with particular reference to immig... more The author traces the demographic history of the United States with particular reference to immigration and the impact of changes in the ethnic pattern of post-World War II immigrants on the cultural, fiscal, and economic condition of the United States. Consideration is also given to the constitutional implications of the privileges extended to U.S. territories in the Pacific. Key Words: Demography, Migration, U.S. Immigration Policy, Pacific territories, Bi-lingualism, Multi-Culturalism and Crime During the past thirty-two years, Congress has enacted laws on immigration, citizenship, and territorial powers which are deconstructing the United States as both a "European" nation and a federal polity. For nearly two hundred after its independence from Great Britain in 1783, the United States was demographically a "European" nation with never less than 81 percent of the population being of European, and overwhelmingly Northern European, ancestry. As recently as 1950, European-Americans still constituted 90 percent of the total population of the United States. The Changed Pattern of Immigration But all this has changed under the continuing impact of the 1965 Immigration and Naturalization Act Amendments. The Congressional sponsors of this legislation publicly and repeatedly told the citizens of the United States it: (1) would not increase the annual levels of immigration, (2) would not lower the standards for admission, (3) would not redirect immigration away from Europe, and (4) would not alter the demographic make-up of the United States. For example, Senator Robert Kennedy declared "the new immigration act would not have any significant effect on the ethnic composition of the U.S."1 His brother, Senator Edward Kennedy, floor manager of the bill in the Senate, asserted that "This bill is not concerned with increasing immigration to this country, nor will it lower any of the high standards we apply in selection of immigrants."2 And Representative Emanuel Celler, the dean of the House in 1965 and a Congressional opponent of U. S. immigration policy since 1924, insisted "the effect of the bill would be 'quite insignificant' on U. S. population" and "that the bill would not let in 'great numbers of immigrants from anywhere', including Africa and Asia".3 What the Senators and the Congressman emphatically proclaimed as truth proved to be totally untrue. Between 1968, the year when the 1965 immigration law fully took effect, and 1996, the annual level of legal immigration skyrocketed from approximately 300,000 to nearly one million. During the 147 years between 1820 and 1967, of the 44 million immigrants legally admitted to the United States 80 percent came from Europe while another 9 percent came from Canada.4 As a result of the 1965 immigration act, of the more than 19 million immigrants legally admitted to the United States in the 28 years between 1968 and 1996 approximately 83 percent came from somewhere other than Europe or Canada. Asia and the Pacific islands accounted for more than six million or 34 percent of the total; Latin America and the Caribbean islands accounted for almost nine million or 46 percent, and Africa accounted for nearly half a million or about 3 percent.5 During the last 28 years, immigration from Europe totaled less than 3 million or barely 15 percent of all legal immigration while immigration from Canada amounted to less than half a million or less than 3 percent of the total. This decline from the 1820-1967 levels is more pronounced than these statistics reveal. While immigration from Asia means ethnic Asian immigrants, and immigration from Latin America means, with the exception of Brazil and Haiti, "ethnic" Hispanic immigrants, immigration from Europe and Canada does not mean ethnic European immigrants. Africans, Asians, and Latin Americans are able to immigrate to various European countries, as well as to Canada, then remigrate to the United States under the quotas for those countries. …
... the twelfth century of English nationalism, a phenomenon that did not emerge until the latesi... more ... the twelfth century of English nationalism, a phenomenon that did not emerge until the latesixteenth century. ... Second, the failed proposal of the past, unification of Northern Ireland with the Repub lic of ... and the failed policy of the pres ent, continuing the status quo in Northern Ire ...
The goal of the geopolitics pursued by China under President Xi Jinping is to remake internationa... more The goal of the geopolitics pursued by China under President Xi Jinping is to remake international relations into a China-centric, hierarchical, new world order consisting of China as the paramount power interacting with tributary states. It is based on the ancient Chinese concept of tianxia. China’s foreign policy is “politics being the continuation of war by other means.” Each of the three main campaigns launched by President Xi Jinjiang, BRI, “made in China 2025”, and world dominance in AI by 2030, have dual civilian/military applications. Through this duality China seeks to impose tianxia, Chinese hegemony, on the world as Beijing has already imposed it on Uighurs, Tibetans, and Hong Kong.
Foreign Policy Research Centre, India issue Number 44, 2020
In 2013, China launched an ambitious program – OBOR, the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative. It was... more In 2013, China launched an ambitious program – OBOR, the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative. It was an unprecedented attempt by one country to financially reestablish the old Silk Road; to create a new world order. Beijing marketed OBOR as an economic undertaking that is a “win-win” proposition for both donor and recipients. In practice, OBOR was less about economics and more about geo-political strategy to make China the world’s principle power, economically, militarily, and politically. But Beijing overreached, resulting in a backlash; one that threatens the viability of OBOR and the stability of China.
By investing between one and eight trillion dollars in the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative (OBOR,... more By investing between one and eight trillion dollars in the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative (OBOR, also known as the Belt and Road Initiative, BRI), Beijing sought to elevate China to the world’s leading economy by financing land and sea projects, such as airports, pipelines, roads, railroads, sea ports, and shipping lanes, to link the infrastructures and economies of Asia, Africa, and Europe to China. Joseph E Fallon suggests its over-reach is becoming apparent
In the aftermath of 9/11, Syria was initially treated as an "ally" by Washington in the war again... more In the aftermath of 9/11, Syria was initially treated as an "ally" by Washington in the war against al-Qaeda and a partner in US policy of rendition. But within months, Damascus was declared a "foe", a "rogue nation" that sponsors terrorism. In April 2002, President Bush stated that "Syria [had] to decide which side of the war against terror it is on." Relations between Washington and Damascus rapidly deteriorated as the U.S. viewed Syria as a "threat" to the region and imposed sanctions on Damascus
To address the ecological crisis threatening indigenous peoples in the Arctic region, the Arctic ... more To address the ecological crisis threatening indigenous peoples in the Arctic region, the Arctic Council, member and observer states, must first recognize preservation of the environment takes precedence over economic development, argues Joseph E Fallon, U K Defence Forum Senior Research Associate
The first island chain, the most important of the three, is 700 nautical miles off the coast of C... more The first island chain, the most important of the three, is 700 nautical miles off the coast of China and extends from the Kuriles to Japan to the Ryukyus to Okinawa to Taiwan to the Philippines to Malaysia and encloses the East China and South China Seas. From here, the U.S. could blockade China's ports, neutralise China's navy, and cripple China's economy. The second island chain extends as far as 1800 nautical miles from China's coast stretching from Japan to Guam to Palau to Indonesia. The third island chain runs from the Aleutian Islands to the Hawaiian Islands to the Line Islands to Tonga to New Zealand. If China is to become the dominant power in Asia amd a world power, it must first break the maritime containment imposed by these three island chains. Here's how it might proceed.
Defence Viewpoints from the UK Defence Forum, 2024
The history of Russia's Pacific Fleet is the history of the trials and tribulations of Russia. So... more The history of Russia's Pacific Fleet is the history of the trials and tribulations of Russia. So is its current status that of a Phoenix rising from the ashes or just a Potemkin village, all show but no substance
Defence Viewpoints from the UK Defence Forum, 2024
On September 19, 2023, the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, the self-declared Republic of Ar... more On September 19, 2023, the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, the self-declared Republic of Artsakh, fell to Azerbaijan’s Turkish supported military forces. It was the “end” of a thirty-year war; little noticed by a world preoccupied with the wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas.
With the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and Turkey established their geoeconomic, geopolitical, and geostrategic dominance over the South Caucasus
When the current war between Israel and Hamas ends, the problem that ignited it, and the previous... more When the current war between Israel and Hamas ends, the problem that ignited it, and the previous wars between Israel and her neighbors since 1948, will remain. How to secure Palestinian national self-determination and Israeli national security? A proposal on how to achieve both exists. It has existed since 1947. It is the two-state solution. It was the basis for the UN partition plan of 1947 and the Saudi peace proposal of 2002 and 2007.
Geopolitics can best be understood as the application of Sir Isaac Newton’s Laws of Motion to int... more Geopolitics can best be understood as the application of Sir Isaac Newton’s Laws of Motion to international relations. These laws “explain the relationship between a physical object [a state] and the forces acting upon it [other states].”
NATO’s enlargement and Moscow’s response to that enlargement in the Black Sea region is a case in point.
Feeling under pressure from India since its creation, Pakistan has become involved in Afghanista... more Feeling under pressure from India since its creation, Pakistan has become involved in Afghanistan and is becoming ever more beholden to China for support against India. But is it just trading threats?
To understand Russia’s foreign policy, its drive for strategic depth, first understand Russia’s g... more To understand Russia’s foreign policy, its drive for strategic depth, first understand Russia’s geography of exposure. Since the rise of Kievean Rus a millenium ago, the imperatives have remained the same.
A summary of the naval war between Russia and Ukraine 2022-24. Order of battle of Russian Black S... more A summary of the naval war between Russia and Ukraine 2022-24. Order of battle of Russian Black Sea Fleet and losses (to March 24) Change in strategic balance.
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Papers by Joseph Fallon
Kaliningrad exclave. These are further isolated by the maritime borders of the surrounding states.
Finland and Sweden joining NATO has turned the Baltic into a NATO lake. In a potential Great Northern War, what would Russia's strategy be - and can it succeed?
China’s foreign policy is “politics being the continuation of war by other means.” Each of the three main campaigns launched by President Xi Jinjiang, BRI, “made in China 2025”, and world dominance in AI by 2030, have dual civilian/military applications. Through this duality China seeks to impose tianxia, Chinese hegemony, on the world as Beijing has already imposed it on Uighurs, Tibetans, and Hong Kong.
This paper is an expanded version of a shorter article, “Boomerang: OBOR and China’s Overreach in the Age of Pandemic”, for Defence Viewpoints from the UK Defence Forum, which is posted on Academia.edu.
https://www.academia.edu/43766986/Boomerang_OBOR_and_Chinas_Overreach_in_the_Age_of_Pandemic
The second island chain extends as far as 1800 nautical miles from China's coast stretching from Japan to Guam to Palau to Indonesia.
The third island chain runs from the Aleutian Islands to the Hawaiian Islands to the Line Islands to Tonga to New Zealand.
If China is to become the dominant power in Asia amd a world power, it must first break the maritime containment imposed by these three island chains. Here's how it might proceed.
Kaliningrad exclave. These are further isolated by the maritime borders of the surrounding states.
Finland and Sweden joining NATO has turned the Baltic into a NATO lake. In a potential Great Northern War, what would Russia's strategy be - and can it succeed?
China’s foreign policy is “politics being the continuation of war by other means.” Each of the three main campaigns launched by President Xi Jinjiang, BRI, “made in China 2025”, and world dominance in AI by 2030, have dual civilian/military applications. Through this duality China seeks to impose tianxia, Chinese hegemony, on the world as Beijing has already imposed it on Uighurs, Tibetans, and Hong Kong.
This paper is an expanded version of a shorter article, “Boomerang: OBOR and China’s Overreach in the Age of Pandemic”, for Defence Viewpoints from the UK Defence Forum, which is posted on Academia.edu.
https://www.academia.edu/43766986/Boomerang_OBOR_and_Chinas_Overreach_in_the_Age_of_Pandemic
The second island chain extends as far as 1800 nautical miles from China's coast stretching from Japan to Guam to Palau to Indonesia.
The third island chain runs from the Aleutian Islands to the Hawaiian Islands to the Line Islands to Tonga to New Zealand.
If China is to become the dominant power in Asia amd a world power, it must first break the maritime containment imposed by these three island chains. Here's how it might proceed.
With the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and Turkey established their geoeconomic, geopolitical, and geostrategic dominance over the South Caucasus
NATO’s enlargement and Moscow’s response to that enlargement in the Black Sea region is a case in point.