Extensive experience with the analysis – both from the theoretical and practical points of view – of emerging patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI), inward and outward, in various parts of the world, especially in the economies in transition. Knowledge of issues related to the activities of multinational enterprises and their implications for development, be it cross-cutting topics such as export competitiveness, the impact of international acquisitions, research and development and linkages with local firms, or sectoral questions. Familiarity with national and international investment policy analysis both at the generic and concrete levels (in selected developing and transition economies). Experience with formulating policy advice to Governments. Drafting – and substantive editing – skills in English language for academic and policy-oriented publications on investment issues. Good publication record in academic journals. Formulation of new ideas for research on FDI. Presentation and teaching skills in both academic and public-service environments in English, French, Spanish and Hungarian languages.
ABSTRACT Compared with the majority of emerging-market investors, Russian multinationals are late... more ABSTRACT Compared with the majority of emerging-market investors, Russian multinationals are latecomers to the global business scene. The majority of the large Russian firms that we know today were established only in the mid-1990s, during the country’s privatization process. Their outward investment started to grow fast only a decade later, but has weathered the global crisis relatively well. The majority of these multinationals are based on natural resource extraction, heavy industries (metallurgy) and selected services such as telecommunications and banking. Given these characteristics, it is not surprising that they opt for acquisitions as a preferred mode of market entry in their quest of fast conquest of markets abroad. This chapter analyses the main features of the foreign acquisitions of Russian firms such as the overall drive of Russian firms to control the value chain of their product, be it oil and gas, metals, food, banking services or telecommunications. It puts the analysis into the context of the full Russian market for acquisitions (dominated by local deals but also containing inward and outward investment) and of total foreign direct investment (FDI). The chapter also examines the main characteristics of the mega-deals carried out by Russian firms, such as their use to leapfrog into the global scene without passing the regional route. The concluding part attempts to answer the question if the recent speed of foreign acquisitions is sustainable under the new conditions of the global crisis.
SUMMARY Since the beginning of the transition from centrally planned to market economy, the FDI o... more SUMMARY Since the beginning of the transition from centrally planned to market economy, the FDI outflows of the Russian Federation have consistently exceeded the inflows. In the 1990s, most of the outflows were of an informal nature, and unregistered in the balance of payments, or misregistered under other items. Since 2003, their recording has improved. However, the question remains: how can a lower-middle income country become a net capital exporter? It is supposed to be the combined result of economic and political factors ...
ABSTRACT Compared with the majority of emerging-market investors, Russian multinationals are late... more ABSTRACT Compared with the majority of emerging-market investors, Russian multinationals are latecomers to the global business scene. The majority of the large Russian firms that we know today were established only in the mid-1990s, during the country’s privatization process. Their outward investment started to grow fast only a decade later, but has weathered the global crisis relatively well. The majority of these multinationals are based on natural resource extraction, heavy industries (metallurgy) and selected services such as telecommunications and banking. Given these characteristics, it is not surprising that they opt for acquisitions as a preferred mode of market entry in their quest of fast conquest of markets abroad. This chapter analyses the main features of the foreign acquisitions of Russian firms such as the overall drive of Russian firms to control the value chain of their product, be it oil and gas, metals, food, banking services or telecommunications. It puts the analysis into the context of the full Russian market for acquisitions (dominated by local deals but also containing inward and outward investment) and of total foreign direct investment (FDI). The chapter also examines the main characteristics of the mega-deals carried out by Russian firms, such as their use to leapfrog into the global scene without passing the regional route. The concluding part attempts to answer the question if the recent speed of foreign acquisitions is sustainable under the new conditions of the global crisis.
SUMMARY Since the beginning of the transition from centrally planned to market economy, the FDI o... more SUMMARY Since the beginning of the transition from centrally planned to market economy, the FDI outflows of the Russian Federation have consistently exceeded the inflows. In the 1990s, most of the outflows were of an informal nature, and unregistered in the balance of payments, or misregistered under other items. Since 2003, their recording has improved. However, the question remains: how can a lower-middle income country become a net capital exporter? It is supposed to be the combined result of economic and political factors ...
This ebook contains two succinct essays on the future of foreign direct investment (FDI), and one... more This ebook contains two succinct essays on the future of foreign direct investment (FDI), and one on the future of Russo–Hungarian investment links. In the first essay István Magas links the future of FDI to three major forces: changes in climate, in demography, and in human behaviour. He analyses various dimensions of that future, including environmental, geopolitical and financial problems. In the second essay Predrag Bjelić and Radovan Kastratović focus on both global and regional issues. On the global scene, they deal with the repercussions of the malfunctions of the multilateral system and the need to renew theories of FDI. At the regional level, they consider the future of FDI in the CEFTA 2006 region, which depends on the interaction between policies aimed at deepening intra-group cooperation and joining the European Union (EU). The third essay, by Kálmán Kalotay, attempts to predict the consequences of the Russo–Ukrainian war for Russo–Hungarian investment links. Business operations will be particularly difficult for Hungarian firms operating in Russia, which have to comply with the EU sanctions in an environment full of logistical and supply problems. The volume also contains an introduction by Kálmán Kalotay explaining why this book was born – to mark his retirement from the United Nations in September 2021 – and how he sees the upcoming years in light of his past personal experience. The ebook also includes the list of the words that authors were requested not to use due to their overdoing in other studies.
218 том Научных трудов Вольного экономического общества России — совместное издание Вольного экон... more 218 том Научных трудов Вольного экономического общества России — совместное издание Вольного экономического общества России, Международного Союза экономистов и Российской академии наук — специальный выпуск, посвященный Московскому академическому экономическому форуму (МАЭФ–2019), который состоялся 15–16 мая 2019 года.
This book examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Central and Eastern Europe have... more This book examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Central and Eastern Europe have changed after the Great Recession. It argues that beyond their cyclical effects, the economic crisis and the changing competitiveness of Central and Eastern European countries have had structural impacts on FDI in the region. FDI has traditionally been viewed as the key driver of national development, but the apparent structural shift means that focusing on cheap labour as a competitive advantage is no longer a viable strategy for the countries in the region. The authors argue that these countries need to move beyond the narrative of upgrading (attracting FDI inflows with increasingly higher value added), and focus on ensuring greater value capture instead. A potential way for doing this is by developing the conditions in which innovative national companies can emerge, thrive and eventually develop into lead firms of global value chains. The book provides readers with a highly informative account of the reasons why this shift is necessary, as well as diverse perspectives and extensive discussions on the dynamics and structural impacts of FDI in post-crisis Central and Eastern Europe.
Edited by Kalman Kalotay, this publication contains essays by 11 economists: Predrag Bjelić, Pier... more Edited by Kalman Kalotay, this publication contains essays by 11 economists: Predrag Bjelić, Piergiuseppe Fortunato, Torbjörn Fredriksson, Maria Alejandra Gonzalez-Perez, Jan Hoffmann, the volume's editor, Michael Lim, Jörg Mayer, Simon Mevel, Mia Mikic and Maler Vilee, written on the occasion of Mohan Panicker's retirement from UNCTAD, after managing its most successful training programme, the flagship "Paragraph 166" courses on Key Issues on the International Economic Agenda since their inception in 2002. The production of the publication was managed by Khaled Gaafar, and the cover page designed by Sophie Combette.
Научные труды Вольного экономического общества России / Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia, vol. 218, Аналитические материалы МАЭФ-2019, 2019
The number of special economic zones (SEZ) in the world is rising fast. These zones have contribu... more The number of special economic zones (SEZ) in the world is rising fast. These zones have contributed to the economic success of certain emerging economies, prompting a rush in many other countries, including countries in transition, such as the Russian Federation. SEZs are popular because their value proposition is clearer, especially compared with the value proposition of highly heterogenous countries and offer a more practical fix for regulatory problems. However, results in general are mixed. Unsatisfactory infrastructure support to investors and scarce links with local suppliers, together with the challenge of competing with neighbours for mobile assets are major concerns in many host countries. Countries can still leverage the impact of SEZ by better adjusting to new industrial revolution, structural challenges of the world economy, a more protectionist environment and the imperative of sustainable development.
Современная Европа [Contemporary Europe] (ISSN 0201-7083), Vol. 16, No. 6 (66), pp. 60-75, 2015
В статье впервые затрагивается проблема присутствия российского капитала в вишеградских странах, ... more В статье впервые затрагивается проблема присутствия российского капитала в вишеградских странах, анализируется мотивация российских компаний, предпочитающих инвестировать за рубежом. Авторский коллектив собрал и проанализировал большой объём статистических данных о российских фирмах, имеющих офисы и производство на территории Венгрии, Польши, Словакии и Чехии, и специализированной литературы, который лег в основу оценочной части данного исследования. Авторы сумели сделать некоторые предварительные теоретические выводы об этом явлении, а именно о том, почему страны Вишеградской четвёрки являются столь привлекательными для российских инвестиций, несмотря на целый ряд неблагоприятных факторов местного и глобального масштаба.
In: Casanova, L. and Miroux, A. (Eds.) Emerging Market Multinationals Report 2022: Reinventing Global Value Chains. Ithaca, NY, USA: Emerging Markets Institute, S.C. Johnson College of Business, Cornell University: 110–117, https://hdl.handle.net/1813/112770, Nov 1, 2022
This chapter examines how the sanctions imposed on Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine have... more This chapter examines how the sanctions imposed on Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine have impacted Russian firms, their direct investment abroad, and Hungarian business presence in Russia, and, in particular, how Russian and Hungarian firms have adjusted to this new reality. It highlights the main commonalities, such as the difficulties of access to finance transactions and the interruption of logistics and supply chains, especially in the areas of technology goods. The chapter also looks at the main differences between Russia and Hungary. In Russia, large firms with exposure to the West have been facing major difficulties in their international operations and have focused their efforts on mitigating the effects of sanctions. On the other side, Hungarian firms investing in and/or exporting to Russia typically try to hold their ground in the Russian market. They are attempting to overcome difficulties such as risks of foreign exchange and non-payment, issues with logistics and supply chain disruptions, problems with banking and financial transactions, increased time and costs of international shipping due to altered routing, additional administrative burdens at the border, air travel restrictions, and a constant need for information to adapt to sanctions and counter-sanctions. It is uncertain whether the generally positive attitude of Hungarian firms towards staying (and even taking advantage of the situation to expand further) will change over time. The challenges may become too great to take on, not only for smaller, resource-poor, and less-experienced firms, but also for stronger enterprises.
Available at https://hdl.handle.net/1813/112770
Uluslararası İlişkiler - International Relations (ISSN 1304-7310), Vol. 13, No. 49, pp. 107-130, Jul 2016
This article analyses direct investment patterns by Russian firms in the four Visegrád countries,... more This article analyses direct investment patterns by Russian firms in the four Visegrád countries, their motivations and ownership advantages, based mostly on the eclectic paradigm. Beside statistical data, it relies on case studies to present the profile of the most important Russian investors in each host country. In the Visegrád countries, market-, and to a lesser extent, resource-seeking investment by state-owned firms in the hydrocarbons, steel and nuclear energy industries dominate. Some innovative private Russian companies, with features similar to developed-country multinationals can also be identified. Extant investment theories, with the exception of the eclectic paradigm, fall short of explaining Russian investment.
webinar of the Emerging Markets Institute of the Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 2023
Presentation of chapter 10 of the Emerging Markets Report 2022: Reinventing Global Value Chains a... more Presentation of chapter 10 of the Emerging Markets Report 2022: Reinventing Global Value Chains at the webinar of the Emerging Markets Institute of the Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, February 10, 2023. Watch it at 31:41 of the following broadcast: https://ecornell.cornell.edu/keynotes/view/K021023/. The chapter examines how the sanctions imposed on Russian individuals and entities after the attack on Ukraine have impacted Russian firms and their direct investment abroad; how those sanctions have affected Hungarian business presence in Russia; and how Russian and Hungarian firms have adjusted to this new reality. Collection of information contained in the chapter was closed in August 2022. The presentation includes some new information gathered till February 2023.
International Conference on Contemporary Varieties of Capitalism: cutting-edge debates and recent tendencies in the East-Central and Eastern European Region, Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Budapest, 2022
Includes the following slides:
Background information on the minimum tax plan
Why plurilateral an... more Includes the following slides: Background information on the minimum tax plan Why plurilateral and not multilateral agreement? Basic terms and details to keep in mind Positive effects of the ‘global’ minimum tax Risks for countries left out Concerns of lower-income, smaller and more vulnerable countries The dilemma for the EU Expected impact of the minimum tax on global FDI The impact on indirect FDI Conclusion (in lieu of)
This presentation was motivated by the observation that the term emerging multinationals is often... more This presentation was motivated by the observation that the term emerging multinationals is often used in an arbitrarily manner. The presentation explored all the aspects of identifying emerging multinationals, staring with the issue of defining “multinationals”, followed by the problem of attributing multinationals to “emerging” home countries, the issue of defining what an “emerging” home country is, and how to measure the dynamism of emerging countries. In the second part of the presentation, an outward foreign direct investment index was constructed based on absolute and relative measures of outward FDI stocks. The proof of such outward FDI index contains confirmation and surprises. Most of the "upcoming" and "nascent" economies are on the usual list of emerging markets, with some outliers, especially in Latin America. The presentation also tabulated the common features of upcoming and nascent investors, to help identify consequences for extant FDI/MNE theories.
This presentation examines changes in global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and stocks in ... more This presentation examines changes in global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and stocks in the past quarter of century (1991–2016) for countries and territories for which data are available. It also asks how those changes affect our way of explaining FDI and other activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs), and draws basic public policy conclusions from the evolving landscape of FDI and our understanding about the main driving forces behind those changes.
This presentation explores six questions:
1. What makes a country an emerging source of OFDI?
2. ... more This presentation explores six questions: 1. What makes a country an emerging source of OFDI? 2. Are the raw UNCTAD data on emerging sources of outward FDI are right? 3. How to construct an outward foreign direct investment index as a more objective measure of internationalization? 4. What does the the outward FDI index prove (confirmation and surprises)? 5. How to tabulate common features of upcoming and nascent investors (commonalities and differences)? 6. What are the consequences for FDI/MNE theory?
The presentation deals with five topics: 1. What are the “emerging” markets? 2. In&out data for F... more The presentation deals with five topics: 1. What are the “emerging” markets? 2. In&out data for FDI; general features? 3. Zoom on State-owned multinationals; are they from emerging markets? 4. Do they grow? 5. Are we challenged? Are we concerned?
Presentation made at the ‘KV27 Doing Business in Wider Europe’ course of the Pan-European Institu... more Presentation made at the ‘KV27 Doing Business in Wider Europe’ course of the Pan-European Institute (PEI) of the Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland, 2 February 2023. Outline: 1. Brief historical background on the Hungarian investment promotion strategy. 2. 2010 on: place for national capitalism building (PM Orbán). 3. Spotlight on Hungary’s opposition to the global minimum tax. 4. Does the Hungarian strategy work? 5. Towards a new Hungarian strategy of investment promotion
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Papers by Kalman Kalotay
экономическому форуму (МАЭФ–2019), который состоялся 15–16 мая 2019 года.
Available at https://hdl.handle.net/1813/112770
Background information on the minimum tax plan
Why plurilateral and not multilateral agreement?
Basic terms and details to keep in mind
Positive effects of the ‘global’ minimum tax
Risks for countries left out
Concerns of lower-income, smaller and more vulnerable countries
The dilemma for the EU
Expected impact of the minimum tax on global FDI
The impact on indirect FDI
Conclusion (in lieu of)
1. What makes a country an emerging source of OFDI?
2. Are the raw UNCTAD data on emerging sources of outward FDI are right?
3. How to construct an outward foreign direct investment index as a more objective measure of internationalization?
4. What does the the outward FDI index prove (confirmation and surprises)?
5. How to tabulate common features of upcoming and nascent investors (commonalities and differences)?
6. What are the consequences for FDI/MNE theory?