Additional file 1. Diagrammatic presentation of Ebola-Malaria algorithms in Sierra Leone, 2014â 2... more Additional file 1. Diagrammatic presentation of Ebola-Malaria algorithms in Sierra Leone, 2014â 2015.
Additional file 2. Diagrammatic design of the interrupted timeâ series regression used to measure... more Additional file 2. Diagrammatic design of the interrupted timeâ series regression used to measure impact of the MDA.
Additional file 3. Relative percent change in malaria indicators and Ebola alerts in the health f... more Additional file 3. Relative percent change in malaria indicators and Ebola alerts in the health facilities in MDA- (n = 34 PHUs) and non-MDA-chiefdoms (n = 14 PHUs) during post-MDA weeks using interrupted time-series regression. Upper values are relative percent changes and lower values in brackets are 95 % CI. Percentages in bold are significant changes with 95 % CI that excluded zero. Negative changes are decrease and positive changes are increase in trends post-MDA compared to trends of pre-MDA weeks.
Initial evidence of reduction of malaria cases and deaths in Rwanda and Ethiopia due to rapid sca... more Initial evidence of reduction of malaria cases and deaths in Rwanda and Ethiopia due to rapid scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment
The war in Tigray region of Ethiopia that started in November 2020 and is still ongoing has broug... more The war in Tigray region of Ethiopia that started in November 2020 and is still ongoing has brought enormous damage to the health system. This analysis provides an assessment of the health system before and during the war. Evidence of damage was compiled from November 2020 to June 2021 from various reports by the interim government of Tigray, and also by international non-governmental organisations. Comparison was made with data from the prewar calendar year. Six months into the war, only 30% of hospitals, 17% of health centres, 11.5% of ambulances and none of the 712 health posts were functional. As of June 2021, the population in need of emergency food assistance in Tigray increased from less than one million to over 5.2 million. While the prewar performance of antenatal care, supervised delivery, postnatal care and children vaccination was 64%, 73%, 63% and 73%, respectively, but none of the services were likely to be delivered in the first 90 days of the war. A conservative esti...
Since its emergence in December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic with many co... more Since its emergence in December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic with many countries declaring emergency conditions to contain its spread. The impact of the disease, while it has been relatively low in the Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) so far, is feared to be potentially devastating given the less developed and fragmented health care system in the continent. In addition, most emergency measures practiced may not be effective due to their limited affordability as well as the communal way people in SSA live in relative isolation in clusters of large as well as smaller population centers. To address the acute need for estimates of the potential impacts of the disease once it sweeps through the region, we developed a process-based model with key parameters obtained from recent studies, taking local context into consideration. We further used the model to estimate the number of infections within a year of sustained local transmissions under a total of 216 scenarios that co...
In 2015, a China-UK-Tanzania tripartite pilot project was implemented in south-eastern Tanzania t... more In 2015, a China-UK-Tanzania tripartite pilot project was implemented in south-eastern Tanzania to explore a new model to reduce the malaria burden with the aim of eventually scaling-up the approach in Africa. Chinese and Tanzanian teams have developed a locally-tailored malaria control approach screening for febrile cases in endemic villages on Day 1 followed by focal treatment of holoendemic villages within 7 days to stop transmission at the same phase of the plasmodium life-cycle. This 1,7-Reactive Community-based Testing and Response (1,7-mRCT) model can utilize existing health facility data and locally trained community-based health workers to conduct community-level testing and treatment. Methods: Matched malaria incidence pairs of control and intervention wards were chosen. The latter arm was selected for the 1,7-mRCT approach, while the control wards relied on long-lasting insecticide-treated bednets only. The 1,7-mRCT activities included community testing and treatment of m...
Since 2005, the Government of Ghana and its partners, in concerted efforts to control malaria, sc... more Since 2005, the Government of Ghana and its partners, in concerted efforts to control malaria, scaled up the use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Beginning in 2011, a mass campaign of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) was implemented, targeting all the population. The impact of these interventions on malaria cases, admissions and deaths was assessed using data from district hospitals. Records of malaria cases and deaths and availability of ACT in 88 hospitals, as well as at district level, ITN distribution, and indoor residual spraying were reviewed. Annual proportion of the population potentially protected by ITNs was estimated with the assumption that each LLIN covered 1.8 persons for 3 years. Changes in trends of cases and deaths in 2015 were estimated by segmented log-linear regression, comparing trends in post-scale-up (2011-2015) with that of pre-scale-up (2005-2010) period. Trends of mortality in children under 5 years o...
As emergency response to the Ebola epidemic, the Government of Sierra Leone and its partners impl... more As emergency response to the Ebola epidemic, the Government of Sierra Leone and its partners implemented a large-scale Mass Drug Administration (MDA) with artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) covering >2.7 million people in the districts hardest hit by Ebola during December 2014-January 2015. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) evaluated the impact of the MDA on malaria morbidity at health facilities and the number of Ebola alerts received at District Ebola Command Centres. The coverage of the two rounds of MDA with ASAQ was estimated by relating the number anti-malarial medicines distributed to the estimated resident population. Segmented time-series analysis was applied to weekly data collected from 49 primary health units (PHUs) and 11 hospitals performing malaria parasitological testing during the study period, to evaluate trends of malaria cases and Ebola alerts during the post-MDA weeks compared to the pre-MDA weeks in MDA- and non...
2015 was the target year for malaria goals set by the World Health Assembly and other internation... more 2015 was the target year for malaria goals set by the World Health Assembly and other international institutions to reduce malaria incidence and mortality. A review of progress indicates that malaria programme financing and coverage have been transformed since the beginning of the millennium, and have contributed to substantial reductions in the burden of disease. Investments in malaria programmes increased by more than 2.5 times between 2005 and 2014 from US$ 960 million to US$ 2.5 billion, allowing an expansion in malaria prevention, diagnostic testing and treatment programmes. In 2015 more than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa slept under insecticide-treated mosquito nets, compared to just 2 % in 2000. Increased availability of rapid diagnostic tests and antimalarial medicines has allowed many more people to access timely and appropriate treatment. Malaria incidence rates have decreased by 37 % globally and mortality rates by 60 % since 2000. It is estimated that 70 %...
Background: The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combinati... more Background: The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001–2011. Methods: Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001–2005) and post-interventions (2006–2011) periods. Findings: The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51 % in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87 % during 2006–2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]...
Abstract This report begins with a summary and list of 33 key points in English, French and Spani... more Abstract This report begins with a summary and list of 33 key points in English, French and Spanish, followed by a brief introduction and chapters on: policies, strategies and targets for malaria control; the estimated burden of malaria around the world in 2006; interventions to ...
Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends... more Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million) worldwide, 176 (110-248) million in the African region, and 49 (36-68) million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts will increasingly rely on robust systems of routine surveillance.
The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies... more The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001-2011. Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001-2005) and post-interventions (2006-2011) periods. The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006-2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%-51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%-94%) and 73% (CI, 48%-86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission. Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006-2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the possibility that the decrease is due to other factors.
Additional file 1. Diagrammatic presentation of Ebola-Malaria algorithms in Sierra Leone, 2014â 2... more Additional file 1. Diagrammatic presentation of Ebola-Malaria algorithms in Sierra Leone, 2014â 2015.
Additional file 2. Diagrammatic design of the interrupted timeâ series regression used to measure... more Additional file 2. Diagrammatic design of the interrupted timeâ series regression used to measure impact of the MDA.
Additional file 3. Relative percent change in malaria indicators and Ebola alerts in the health f... more Additional file 3. Relative percent change in malaria indicators and Ebola alerts in the health facilities in MDA- (n = 34 PHUs) and non-MDA-chiefdoms (n = 14 PHUs) during post-MDA weeks using interrupted time-series regression. Upper values are relative percent changes and lower values in brackets are 95 % CI. Percentages in bold are significant changes with 95 % CI that excluded zero. Negative changes are decrease and positive changes are increase in trends post-MDA compared to trends of pre-MDA weeks.
Initial evidence of reduction of malaria cases and deaths in Rwanda and Ethiopia due to rapid sca... more Initial evidence of reduction of malaria cases and deaths in Rwanda and Ethiopia due to rapid scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment
The war in Tigray region of Ethiopia that started in November 2020 and is still ongoing has broug... more The war in Tigray region of Ethiopia that started in November 2020 and is still ongoing has brought enormous damage to the health system. This analysis provides an assessment of the health system before and during the war. Evidence of damage was compiled from November 2020 to June 2021 from various reports by the interim government of Tigray, and also by international non-governmental organisations. Comparison was made with data from the prewar calendar year. Six months into the war, only 30% of hospitals, 17% of health centres, 11.5% of ambulances and none of the 712 health posts were functional. As of June 2021, the population in need of emergency food assistance in Tigray increased from less than one million to over 5.2 million. While the prewar performance of antenatal care, supervised delivery, postnatal care and children vaccination was 64%, 73%, 63% and 73%, respectively, but none of the services were likely to be delivered in the first 90 days of the war. A conservative esti...
Since its emergence in December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic with many co... more Since its emergence in December 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly developed into a pandemic with many countries declaring emergency conditions to contain its spread. The impact of the disease, while it has been relatively low in the Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) so far, is feared to be potentially devastating given the less developed and fragmented health care system in the continent. In addition, most emergency measures practiced may not be effective due to their limited affordability as well as the communal way people in SSA live in relative isolation in clusters of large as well as smaller population centers. To address the acute need for estimates of the potential impacts of the disease once it sweeps through the region, we developed a process-based model with key parameters obtained from recent studies, taking local context into consideration. We further used the model to estimate the number of infections within a year of sustained local transmissions under a total of 216 scenarios that co...
In 2015, a China-UK-Tanzania tripartite pilot project was implemented in south-eastern Tanzania t... more In 2015, a China-UK-Tanzania tripartite pilot project was implemented in south-eastern Tanzania to explore a new model to reduce the malaria burden with the aim of eventually scaling-up the approach in Africa. Chinese and Tanzanian teams have developed a locally-tailored malaria control approach screening for febrile cases in endemic villages on Day 1 followed by focal treatment of holoendemic villages within 7 days to stop transmission at the same phase of the plasmodium life-cycle. This 1,7-Reactive Community-based Testing and Response (1,7-mRCT) model can utilize existing health facility data and locally trained community-based health workers to conduct community-level testing and treatment. Methods: Matched malaria incidence pairs of control and intervention wards were chosen. The latter arm was selected for the 1,7-mRCT approach, while the control wards relied on long-lasting insecticide-treated bednets only. The 1,7-mRCT activities included community testing and treatment of m...
Since 2005, the Government of Ghana and its partners, in concerted efforts to control malaria, sc... more Since 2005, the Government of Ghana and its partners, in concerted efforts to control malaria, scaled up the use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Beginning in 2011, a mass campaign of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) was implemented, targeting all the population. The impact of these interventions on malaria cases, admissions and deaths was assessed using data from district hospitals. Records of malaria cases and deaths and availability of ACT in 88 hospitals, as well as at district level, ITN distribution, and indoor residual spraying were reviewed. Annual proportion of the population potentially protected by ITNs was estimated with the assumption that each LLIN covered 1.8 persons for 3 years. Changes in trends of cases and deaths in 2015 were estimated by segmented log-linear regression, comparing trends in post-scale-up (2011-2015) with that of pre-scale-up (2005-2010) period. Trends of mortality in children under 5 years o...
As emergency response to the Ebola epidemic, the Government of Sierra Leone and its partners impl... more As emergency response to the Ebola epidemic, the Government of Sierra Leone and its partners implemented a large-scale Mass Drug Administration (MDA) with artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) covering >2.7 million people in the districts hardest hit by Ebola during December 2014-January 2015. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) evaluated the impact of the MDA on malaria morbidity at health facilities and the number of Ebola alerts received at District Ebola Command Centres. The coverage of the two rounds of MDA with ASAQ was estimated by relating the number anti-malarial medicines distributed to the estimated resident population. Segmented time-series analysis was applied to weekly data collected from 49 primary health units (PHUs) and 11 hospitals performing malaria parasitological testing during the study period, to evaluate trends of malaria cases and Ebola alerts during the post-MDA weeks compared to the pre-MDA weeks in MDA- and non...
2015 was the target year for malaria goals set by the World Health Assembly and other internation... more 2015 was the target year for malaria goals set by the World Health Assembly and other international institutions to reduce malaria incidence and mortality. A review of progress indicates that malaria programme financing and coverage have been transformed since the beginning of the millennium, and have contributed to substantial reductions in the burden of disease. Investments in malaria programmes increased by more than 2.5 times between 2005 and 2014 from US$ 960 million to US$ 2.5 billion, allowing an expansion in malaria prevention, diagnostic testing and treatment programmes. In 2015 more than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa slept under insecticide-treated mosquito nets, compared to just 2 % in 2000. Increased availability of rapid diagnostic tests and antimalarial medicines has allowed many more people to access timely and appropriate treatment. Malaria incidence rates have decreased by 37 % globally and mortality rates by 60 % since 2000. It is estimated that 70 %...
Background: The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combinati... more Background: The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001–2011. Methods: Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001–2005) and post-interventions (2006–2011) periods. Findings: The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51 % in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87 % during 2006–2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]...
Abstract This report begins with a summary and list of 33 key points in English, French and Spani... more Abstract This report begins with a summary and list of 33 key points in English, French and Spanish, followed by a brief introduction and chapters on: policies, strategies and targets for malaria control; the estimated burden of malaria around the world in 2006; interventions to ...
Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends... more Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million) worldwide, 176 (110-248) million in the African region, and 49 (36-68) million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts will increasingly rely on robust systems of routine surveillance.
The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies... more The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001-2011. Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001-2005) and post-interventions (2006-2011) periods. The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006-2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%-51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%-94%) and 73% (CI, 48%-86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission. Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006-2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the possibility that the decrease is due to other factors.
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