Matthew Peters

Background/Question/Methods By all indicators, the fate of all North American native ash (Fraxinus spp.) in the wake of emerald ash borer (EAB) is bleak. This study is concerned with creating a better understanding of the potential replacements of ash in native stands as the ash dies out. We present the current distribution and abundance of four species of ash and co-occurring species in the eastern United States, according to US Forest Service Forest Inventory Data. With this information, along with 38 environmental variables, we create suitable habitat models for the species using the RandomForest statistical modeling tools. We then model the suitable habitat for each species under various scenarios of climate change for ~2040, 2070, and 2100. The model outputs are intended to give some indication of potential changes in species composition under climate change. Coupled with this effort is a field assessment of current co-occurring species within ash ecosystems in Ohio and Michiga...

The 834,000-acre Wayne National Forest, Ohio's only national forest, lies in the rolling foothills of the Appalachians in the state's southeast. Congress established the forest boundary in 1934 to prioritize land acquisition and ownership of forest lands in need of restoration. The forest is composed of both central hardwoods, primarily oak and hickory, and softwoods, including native pine and hemlock.

We document an increase in oak and hickory advance regeneration, depending on landscape position, in the sixth year (2006) after mechanical thinning (2000) and repeated prescribed fires (2001 and 2005) across two sites (Raccoon Ecological Management Area and Zaleski State Forest) in southern Ohio. Each of four 20+ ha units (two controls and two thin plus burn twice) were modeled and mapped into a long-term moisture regime (integrated moisture index [IMI]) and plots were established at each of 242 points on a 50-m grid. Plots were monitored for light and vegetation in 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2006. From these data, we developed two simple models: (1) a model of oak “competitiveness,” based on advance regeneration of oaks and their competitors; and (2) a model estimating the probability of a plot’s becoming “competitive for oak” based on canopy openness, IMI class, and number of oak and hickory seedlings present. For dry or intermediate (not mesic) sites with at least 5,000 oak and hicko...

One of the many applications of biological field data is their inclusion in predictive models. Such models are now being used to address questions facing society such as how will forest vegetation respond to a warming climate? What tree species are likely to be affected most? Models have been developed to help scientists predict how species might respond under a variety of future climatic scenarios. This chapter introduces some of the ways these predictions are being made and what the future may hold for Illinois trees.

Background/Question/Methods We employ a multi-stage modelling approach to assess the impact of climate change on tree species distribution in the eastern United States. In the first stage, we adopt an empirical-statistical approach to determine the potential suitable habitats for 134 tree species under 3 GCM scenarios (HadCM3, GFDL and PCM) and 2 emission scenarios (A1FI and B1) at a 20 km resolution. In particular we adopt a tri-model approach called DISTRIB where we use decision-tree ensembles to predict species abundance using a robust technique called RandomForest; then, we assess the reliability of the model with bagging trees, and in cases where we deem the model to be stable and therefore reliable, we use a single decision tree to understand and map the predictors driving the distribution of abundances spatially. The individually predicted species abundances were assembled to forest types showing large increases in the oak-hickory type in the northeast for the high emission s...

Climate change is affecting species and resources across National Parks. Shifting climatic conditions are likely to result in novel species assemblages; this means that some species currently present within parks may decline or disappear while more southerly or warm-adapted species may gain substantial habitat. Stewarding forests for continuous change is a challenge for park managers; however, understanding projected rates and directions of forest change should facilitate monitoring and management efforts on park lands and across the broader landscape. To support climate change adaptation within the forest management plan for Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller National Historical Park, we analyzed projected changes in tree habitat suitability for 80 trees species for three future periods (2040, 2070, and 2100) and also assessed recent and projected tree pest impacts to park forests. For tree habitat, we present model output from two climate scenarios, the ‘least change’ and ‘major change’ s...

Climate change is affecting species and resources across national parks. Stewarding resources for continuous change is a challenge for park managers; however, understanding projected rates and directions of change should facilitate monitoring, management, and visitor education on park lands. To support such efforts for Acadia National Park, we analyzed projected changes in bird habitat suitability for 130 North American breeding bird species (primarily terrestrial [landbird] and some freshwater species) for three future periods (2040, 2070, and 2100). We present model output from two climate scenarios, the ‘least change’ and ‘major change’ scenarios that represent plausible lower and upper bounds of future climatic conditions. Looking out to 2100, general trends in the data indicate decreasing habitat suitability under both climate scenarios for 30 species (23% of species analyzed), no change under both scenarios for 15 species (12%), increases or new habitat for 48 species (37%), a...

ABSTRACT Background/Question/Methods Tree species Importance Values (IV) were derived from FIA basal area and the number of stems reported at plot locations and statistically correlated to 38 environmental variables (climate, elevation, land cover, and soil) with the DISTRIB model. Using current climate conditions and three future General Circulation Models with two CO2 scenarios for the end of the century, 134 eastern US tree species were modeled for suitable habitat. The output, with a 20-km resolution, interpolates habitat suitability where FIA hasn’t sampled producing a continuous grid of potential abundance. However, for certain analyses a well-defined polygon delineating the species core range may be necessary. Therefore, using the core area, a continuous region of high to low modeled habitat, a semi-automated method was developed to create Generalized Species Boundaries (GSB). The process uses R statistical algorithms and a series of GIS scripts to delineate boundaries by first identifying grid cells that makeup the core area and then with FIA records and other ancillary data the boundary is manually adjusted. The final smoothed GSBs were evaluated by the percentage of FIA presence and DISTRIB IVs they captured in addition to comparing areal statistics to historical ranges of the species’ extent. Results/Conclusions Model reliability for DISTRIB output was high, medium, and low for 55, 48, and 31 species respectively. Modeled current suitable habitat for 6 to 6617 20-km grid cells contained FIA records, with <1-44% of the modeled output being suitable and not sampled. Areal statistics for the GSBs indicate that most capture an average of 85% of FIA presence even though the area is smaller than the historical range (i.e., Little’s ranges). Additionally, the GSB’s area beyond the historical range was calculated, and 98 species have between 2-95% of the GSB extending beyond the historical range. Utilizing extensive inventories, such as, FIA records and continuous environmental data sets are ideal for regression tree modeling, where relatively few samples (~100,000 FIA plots) can be used to predict suitable habitat. Models for current and future climate scenarios allow researchers to examine potential changes in species habitat and assess regions vulnerable to losses in species abundance. GSBs are suited for analysis of colonization potential out from the core area and migrational shifts and could be used to identify outlier populations.

ABSTRACT Background/Question/Methods As the wildland/urban interface increases and the climate changes, the potential risk of fire damage to private property poses a major threat in the eastern United States. Knowledge of site-specific conditions that increase risk of wildland fires can be vital to managers and municipal agencies. Through risk mapping, we hope to identify areas that local agencies can focus efforts to reduce the risk of intense fires. Available soil moisture has been shown to provide a wealth of information about ecosystems, including long-term water-holding capacity and habitat suitability for ecosystem community types. An Integrated Moisture Index (IMI), a metric calculated from digital elevation models (DEM) and soil survey data, combined with long-term drought indicators (Palmer Drought Severity Index and Standardized Precipitation Index) is being used to investigate risk conditions of wildland fires in New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Results/Conclusions Fine-scale environmental data, along with records of drought indicators and reported wildfires, were used to inform a statistical model about conditions that potentially promote fires. RandomForest, a robust decision-tree based ensemble technique, was used to predict the risk of wildland fires. Preliminary results from PDSI data indicate that for the period 1895 to 1999 a greater number of droughts were experienced in New Jersey and Pennsylvania as compared to Ohio. However, during the recent decade 2000 to 2009, conditions have been considerably wetter or near normal for all three states. Although few droughts recently occurred, more were recorded in New Jersey and Pennsylvania than in Ohio, which corresponded with a higher occurrence of wildfires reported by New Jersey and Pennsylvania than compared to Ohio for this period.

ABSTRACT Background/Question/Methods By all indicators, the fate of all North American native ash (Fraxinus spp.) in the wake of emerald ash borer (EAB) is bleak. This study is concerned with creating a better understanding of the potential replacements of ash in native stands as the ash dies out. We present the current distribution and abundance of four species of ash and co-occurring species in the eastern United States, according to US Forest Service Forest Inventory Data. With this information, along with 38 environmental variables, we create suitable habitat models for the species using the RandomForest statistical modeling tools. We then model the suitable habitat for each species under various scenarios of climate change for ~2040, 2070, and 2100. The model outputs are intended to give some indication of potential changes in species composition under climate change. Coupled with this effort is a field assessment of current co-occurring species within ash ecosystems in Ohio and Michigan. A total of 182 plots in Ohio and 93 in Michigan were evaluated prior to, or in some cases, during, EAB invasion for seedlings, saplings, and overstory trees to assess potential species mixes in the next forest. Results/Conclusions The climate change suitable habitat models, even when excluding the direct impacts of EAB, provide evidence that black ash (F. nigra) would lose much of its suitable habitat over the eastern US by 2100. White ash (F. americana) would also generally lose habitat. Though these models are of lesser reliability, green (F. pennslyvanica) or blue (F. quadrangulata) ash could potentially gain some suitable habitat. Of course the ash models are mute for long-term climate change in the face of EAB, so we focus on co-occurring species and potential migrants and how their habitats may change. Major co-occurring tree species in ash-dominated plots included primarily elms (Ulmus spp.) and maples (Acer rubrum, A. saccharinum, A. saccharum) in Ohio, and maples, oaks (Quercus spp.), and basswood (Tilia sp.) in Michigan. By coupling this plot-level information with the overall trends in suitable habitat for co-occurring species, we provide new analyses on the possible future composition of these ecosystems. For example, the future northward expansion of the potential range of some non-ash tree species into Ohio or Michigan may allow them to move into areas where they currently do not co-occur with ash.