Introducción. Avances recientes en la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos a la macroeconomía pu... more Introducción. Avances recientes en la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos a la macroeconomía pueden iluminar la naturaleza del proceso inflacionario en las economías de alta inflación, así como las dificultades que en ese ambiente afrontan las políticas de estabilización. Entendemos por "economías de alta inflación a los países llamados de inflación cronica, donde ésta parece tener vida propia
Policy Research Working Paper Series, Oct 31, 1990
ABSTRACT This paper deals with the effects of disinflation on economic activity in"c... more ABSTRACT This paper deals with the effects of disinflation on economic activity in"chronic inflation"countries -- countries with a long inflationary history above the rates in industrialized countries, where labor and capital markets are adjusted to function in the inflationary environment. The sample is based on a number of Latin American countries and Israel. The main finding is that stabilization processes in chronic inflation countries do not normally follow the usual Phillips curve trade off in the medium run. Specifically, stabilization progams in these countries are often associated with a business cycle, beginning with a boom and ending with a recession. This finding relates to the programs which used the exchange rate as the main nominal anchor, referred to as"exchange rate based stabilization"(ERBS). This paper documents the main features of the business cycle phenomenon in ERBSs, and tries to understand its causes and to derive some policy implications for future stabilizations. It refers to relevant features of stabilizations in industrial low-inflation economies and in hyperinflationary episodes, and then turns to chronic inflation countries. It highlights the main facts concerning the business cycles in these experiences and discusses the differences between ERBSs and disinflation programs which use money as the nominal anchor. This paper concludes with issues related to the countercyclical policies.
ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina on economic perf... more ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina on economic performance. It shows that the combination of a fixed exchange rate and far reaching structural reforms was successful through most of the nineties, as Argentina succeeded in eliminating inflation and it enjoyed its highest rates of growth since the 1920s. Nevertheless, at the end of 1998 Argentina entered a severe recession from which it has not yet recovered. A deterioration in the external environment as the dollar appreciated and less financial capital flowed to emerging markets required a reduction in nominal wages (especially in the public sector) and in government expenditures which did not take place. The lack of response eroded confidence, tax revenues fell as a result of the recession and financing disappeared. The exchange rate system finally collapsed in early 2002 and the government declared a default on public debt leading to what seems to be the most serious economic crisis that Argentina has ever experienced. Comparative Economic Studies (2002) 44, 83–102; doi:10.1057/ces.2002.10
Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 08853908608523605, Jul 30, 2007
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the general equilibrium aspects related to the choice of technology.... more ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the general equilibrium aspects related to the choice of technology. The paper studies the problem from the perspective of a small, labor abundant open economy that does not generate its own technology. The economic planners must choose between two technologies, one better geared toward the production of labor intensive goods, the other to capital intensive goods. It is shown that the choice of technology not only will affect the welfare level, but it can also reverse the pattern of international trade. It is also shown that the imposition of a tariff can lead the planner to choose a different technology from the one that is optimal under free trade.
Introducción. Avances recientes en la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos a la macroeconomía pu... more Introducción. Avances recientes en la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos a la macroeconomía pueden iluminar la naturaleza del proceso inflacionario en las economías de alta inflación, así como las dificultades que en ese ambiente afrontan las políticas de estabilización. Entendemos por "economías de alta inflación a los países llamados de inflación cronica, donde ésta parece tener vida propia
Policy Research Working Paper Series, Oct 31, 1990
ABSTRACT This paper deals with the effects of disinflation on economic activity in"c... more ABSTRACT This paper deals with the effects of disinflation on economic activity in"chronic inflation"countries -- countries with a long inflationary history above the rates in industrialized countries, where labor and capital markets are adjusted to function in the inflationary environment. The sample is based on a number of Latin American countries and Israel. The main finding is that stabilization processes in chronic inflation countries do not normally follow the usual Phillips curve trade off in the medium run. Specifically, stabilization progams in these countries are often associated with a business cycle, beginning with a boom and ending with a recession. This finding relates to the programs which used the exchange rate as the main nominal anchor, referred to as"exchange rate based stabilization"(ERBS). This paper documents the main features of the business cycle phenomenon in ERBSs, and tries to understand its causes and to derive some policy implications for future stabilizations. It refers to relevant features of stabilizations in industrial low-inflation economies and in hyperinflationary episodes, and then turns to chronic inflation countries. It highlights the main facts concerning the business cycles in these experiences and discusses the differences between ERBSs and disinflation programs which use money as the nominal anchor. This paper concludes with issues related to the countercyclical policies.
ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina on economic perf... more ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the impact of the Convertibility Plan in Argentina on economic performance. It shows that the combination of a fixed exchange rate and far reaching structural reforms was successful through most of the nineties, as Argentina succeeded in eliminating inflation and it enjoyed its highest rates of growth since the 1920s. Nevertheless, at the end of 1998 Argentina entered a severe recession from which it has not yet recovered. A deterioration in the external environment as the dollar appreciated and less financial capital flowed to emerging markets required a reduction in nominal wages (especially in the public sector) and in government expenditures which did not take place. The lack of response eroded confidence, tax revenues fell as a result of the recession and financing disappeared. The exchange rate system finally collapsed in early 2002 and the government declared a default on public debt leading to what seems to be the most serious economic crisis that Argentina has ever experienced. Comparative Economic Studies (2002) 44, 83–102; doi:10.1057/ces.2002.10
Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 08853908608523605, Jul 30, 2007
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the general equilibrium aspects related to the choice of technology.... more ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the general equilibrium aspects related to the choice of technology. The paper studies the problem from the perspective of a small, labor abundant open economy that does not generate its own technology. The economic planners must choose between two technologies, one better geared toward the production of labor intensive goods, the other to capital intensive goods. It is shown that the choice of technology not only will affect the welfare level, but it can also reverse the pattern of international trade. It is also shown that the imposition of a tariff can lead the planner to choose a different technology from the one that is optimal under free trade.
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Papers by Miguel Kiguel