Australasia to identify emerging plant diseases, carriers of these diseases, and the role of host... more Australasia to identify emerging plant diseases, carriers of these diseases, and the role of hosts in the transmission of disease. In Australia, a cause for concern and currently listed as a category 1 emergency pest pathogen is Phytophthora ramorum. It has a wide host range and causes widespread damage in nurseries and private estates across Europe and is devastating coastal forest ecosystems of western USA, mainly in California (Rizzo and others 2002, Werres and others 2001). Several Australasian plant species, including Griselinia littoralis (New Zealand broadleaf), Eucalyptus haemastoma (Australian scribbly gum), and Pittosporum undulatum (Victorian box), have already been listed as natural hosts of P. ramorum based on field observations and pathogenicity tests in the USA and Europe (Huberli and others 2006, RAPRA 2007). While P. ramorum has not been detected in New Zealand or Australia, a preliminary study has identified ecosystems that could be conducive to disease development...
In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many ... more In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many different biological, environmental and human factors and their interactions. Modelling and analysis of surveillance strategies should take into account these complexities, and also facilitate the use and integration of the many types of different information that can provide insight into the system as a whole. After a brief discussion of a range of options, we focus on Bayesian networks for representing such complex systems. We summarize the features of Bayesian networks and describe these in the context of surveillance.
Developing decision support models to evaluate biosecurity risks objectively helps decision maker... more Developing decision support models to evaluate biosecurity risks objectively helps decision makers manage the associated risks with importation of goods We report on the development of a prototype generic risk assessment model to determine the probability and consequences of a plant pest establishment and spread event for an infection point given the biosecurity risk organism arrives via various pathways The model has a number of submodels including entry pathway which models the ratio of infested units coming from any pathway supplying the infection point; establishment and spread which models the chance of an establishment and spread event occuring at an infection point; and consequences which models the consequences of any establishment or spread event occurring at the site Future research is planned to develop a generic input interface to generate a support tool to allow a user to investigate the impacts of alternative whatif scenarios and to test the model on realworld plant pe...
SUMMARY This pest risk analysis has been undertaken in response to:• the recent find of Crazy ant... more SUMMARY This pest risk analysis has been undertaken in response to:• the recent find of Crazy ants (Anoplolepis gracilipes and Paratrechina longicornis) on the Ports of Auckland wharf,• the belief that the wharf may have been infested, and is being re-infested, from ...
Australasia to identify emerging plant diseases, carriers of these diseases, and the role of host... more Australasia to identify emerging plant diseases, carriers of these diseases, and the role of hosts in the transmission of disease. In Australia, a cause for concern and currently listed as a category 1 emergency pest pathogen is Phytophthora ramorum. It has a wide host range and causes widespread damage in nurseries and private estates across Europe and is devastating coastal forest ecosystems of western USA, mainly in California (Rizzo and others 2002, Werres and others 2001). Several Australasian plant species, including Griselinia littoralis (New Zealand broadleaf), Eucalyptus haemastoma (Australian scribbly gum), and Pittosporum undulatum (Victorian box), have already been listed as natural hosts of P. ramorum based on field observations and pathogenicity tests in the USA and Europe (Huberli and others 2006, RAPRA 2007). While P. ramorum has not been detected in New Zealand or Australia, a preliminary study has identified ecosystems that could be conducive to disease development...
In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many ... more In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many different biological, environmental and human factors and their interactions. Modelling and analysis of surveillance strategies should take into account these complexities, and also facilitate the use and integration of the many types of different information that can provide insight into the system as a whole. After a brief discussion of a range of options, we focus on Bayesian networks for representing such complex systems. We summarize the features of Bayesian networks and describe these in the context of surveillance.
Developing decision support models to evaluate biosecurity risks objectively helps decision maker... more Developing decision support models to evaluate biosecurity risks objectively helps decision makers manage the associated risks with importation of goods We report on the development of a prototype generic risk assessment model to determine the probability and consequences of a plant pest establishment and spread event for an infection point given the biosecurity risk organism arrives via various pathways The model has a number of submodels including entry pathway which models the ratio of infested units coming from any pathway supplying the infection point; establishment and spread which models the chance of an establishment and spread event occuring at an infection point; and consequences which models the consequences of any establishment or spread event occurring at the site Future research is planned to develop a generic input interface to generate a support tool to allow a user to investigate the impacts of alternative whatif scenarios and to test the model on realworld plant pe...
SUMMARY This pest risk analysis has been undertaken in response to:• the recent find of Crazy ant... more SUMMARY This pest risk analysis has been undertaken in response to:• the recent find of Crazy ants (Anoplolepis gracilipes and Paratrechina longicornis) on the Ports of Auckland wharf,• the belief that the wharf may have been infested, and is being re-infested, from ...
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