Pamela Escobar

In this paper we analyze how the impact of shocks (in terms of changes in aggregate welfare, poverty, size distribution on income, and functional distribution of income) are influenced by the number of representative households (RHs) that are included and the criteria according to which they are disaggregated (“strategically” on the basis of sources of income or, alternatively, on the basis of levels of per-capita income or consumption). By varying the number of production factors, it also tests the sensitivity of the results to the functional disaggregation. The hypotheses are that (a) starting from a single RH, initial increases in the number of RHs has a strong impact on the results when the disaggregation is strategic but that the impact quite soon becomes miniscule; (b) the larger the number of income sources, the larger the payoffs from household disaggregation; and (c) there is a sharp contrast between the results from disaggregation by quantile and strategic disaggregation, ...

In this study, we used a Computable General Equilibrium model of the Guatemalan economy to conduct simulations for a) a reduction in productivity due to climate change; and b) the effects of drought in agriculture. The reduction in productivity due to climate change would mean an important drop in the value added of agriculture and animal production, as well as a slight drop in industrial food production and the service industry. Under this scenario we should expect a fall in real GDP of 1.2%. The reduction of productivity could mean a reduced fiscal space, and a reduction in government expenditure because of lower tax revenues. More importantly, due to higher prices and lower income of households, this scenario could mean that consumption of agricultural goods for each type of household would be reduced in a relevant manner with great impacts on the food security aspect of access. One of the findings in the effects of drought in agriculture is a decrease of the value added of 23%. ...

In this study, we used a Computable General Equilibrium model of the Guatemalan economy to conduct simulations for a) a reduction in productivity due to climate change; and b) the effects of drought in agriculture. The reduction in productivity due to climate change would mean an important drop in the value added of agriculture and animal production, as well as a slight drop in industrial food production and the service industry. Under this scenario we should expect a fall in real GDP of 1.2%. The reduction of productivity could mean a reduced fiscal space, and a reduction in government expenditure because of lower tax revenues. More importantly, due to higher prices and lower income of households, this scenario could mean that consumption of agricultural goods for each type of household would be reduced in a relevant manner with great impacts on the food security aspect of access. One of the findings in the effects of drought in agriculture is a decrease of the value added of 23%. ...

In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of drought and a decrease in agricultural productivity caused by climate change in Guatemala. A reduction in agricultural productivity would mean a considerable drop in crop and livestock production, and the resulting higher prices and lower household income would mean a significant reduction in the consumption of agricultural goods and food. The most negative effects of a drought would be concentrated in agriculture, given its intensive use of water. Because agricultural production is essential to ensuring food availability, these results suggest that Guatemala needs a proper water-distribution regulatory framework.