The rapid pace in which various Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning tools are developed,... more The rapid pace in which various Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning tools are developed, both within the research community and outside of it, often discourages the involved researchers from taking time to consider potential consequences and applications of the technical advances, especially the unintended ones. While there are notable exceptions to this “gold rush” tendency, individuals and groups providing careful analyses and recommendations for future actions, their adoption remains, at best, limited. This essay presents an analysis of the ethical (and not only) challenges connected with the applications of AI/ML methods in the socio-legal domain.
We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/... more We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) model, applied to a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities (supporting each of the opinions) of comparable size-which corresponds to bipartisan split found in many real world communities. Spurred by the recent breakdown of such system, which existed in Poland for over 9 years, we extend the model by allowing a third opinion. We show that if the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the system may be "invaded" by a newcomer third party very quickly-in qualitative agreement with the actual political situation in Poland in 2015.
Most of the opinion dynamics models in sociophysics have their historic origin in studies two-dim... more Most of the opinion dynamics models in sociophysics have their historic origin in studies two-dimensional magnetization phenomena. This metaphor has proven quite useful, as it allowed to use well known techniques, relating individual behaviours of single spins and their interactions, to large scale properties, such as magnetization or magnetic domains creation. These physical properties were then "mapped" to social concepts: spin orientation to a person's views on a specific issue, magnetization to global opinion on the issue, etc. During the past 20 years, the models were significantly expanded, using more complex individual agent characteristics and even more complex types of the interactions, but the power of the metaphor remained unchanged. In the current paper we propose to use a new physical system as the basis for new ideas in sociophysics. We shall argue that the concepts and tools devoted to studies of High Entropy Alloys (HEAs) could significantly broaden the range of social concepts "addressable" by sociophysics, by focusing on a wider range of global phenomena, arising from atomic properties, interactions and arrangements. We illustrate the new idea by calculating a few characteristics of a simple HEA system and their possible "mapping" into social concepts.
It is a widespread belief that success is mainly due to innate qualities, rather than to external... more It is a widespread belief that success is mainly due to innate qualities, rather than to external forces.This is particularly true in sport competitions, where individual talent is usually considered the main, if not the only, ingredient in order to reach success. In this study, with the help of both real data and agent-based simulations, we explore the limits of this belief by quantifying the relative weight of talent and chance in fencing, a combat sport involving a weapon. Fencing competitions are structured as direct elimination tournaments, where randomness is explicitly present in some rules. Our dataset covers the last decade of international events and consists of both single competition results and annual rankings for male and female fencers under 20 years old (Junior category). Our model is calibrated on the dataset and parametrized by just one free variable 'a' describing the importance of talent - and, consequently, of chance - in competitions (a = 1 indicates th...
Background: A realistic description of the social processes leading to the increasing reluctance ... more Background: A realistic description of the social processes leading to the increasing reluctance to various forms of vaccination is a very challenging task. This is due to the complexity of the psychological and social mechanisms determining the positioning of individuals and groups against vaccination and associated activities. Understanding the role played by social media and the Internet in the current spread of the anti-vaccination (AV) movement is of crucial importance. Methods: We present novel, long-term Big Data analyses of Internet activity connected with the AV movement for such different societies as the US and Poland. The datasets we analyzed cover multiyear periods preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting the behavior of vaccine related Internet activity with high temporal resolution. To understand the empirical observations, in particular the mechanism driving the peaks of AV activity, we propose an Agent Based Model (ABM) of the AV movement. The model includes the...
Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\arXiv:1... more Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\arXiv:1507.00126), we attempt to predict, three months in advance, the range of possible results of the Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 25, 2015. The model reproduces semi-quantitatively the poll results for the three parties which dominated the recent presidential elections and allows estimation of some variations of the electoral propaganda campaigns by the parties.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2015
Peer review is ubiquitous in modern science: from the evaluation of publications to the distribut... more Peer review is ubiquitous in modern science: from the evaluation of publications to the distribution of funding. While there is a long tradition of, and many arguments for, peer review as a beneficial and necessary component of scientific processes, the exponential growth of the research community, the 'publish or perish' pressures and increasing insecurity and competition for research grants have led to an increasing number of voices describing the weaknesses of the system. One of the most frequent accusations against the peer review system is that it inhibits true innovation. The availability of better data mining tools allows interested stakeholders, in principle, to monitor many aspects of the process and to promote a better understanding of the interplay of various factors. 'In principle'-because a lot of information is hidden behind the screens of anonymity and confidentiality. Our work presents an attempt at a theoretical understanding of some aspects of the process via an idealized agent-based model, which describes the effects of the peer review done by 'imperfect' agents, in particular with respect to promotion of mediocrity and to formation of self-serving cliques. The results of the model suggest that both phenomena can be quite robust and require careful monitoring of the system to combat their negative effects. Some mitigating measures are simulated and discussed.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2018
We present an introduction to a novel way of simulating individual and group opinion dynamics, ta... more We present an introduction to a novel way of simulating individual and group opinion dynamics, taking into account how various sources of information are filtered due to cognitive biases. The agent-based model presented here falls into the 'complex agent' category, in which the agents are described in considerably greater detail than in the simplest 'spinson' model. To describe agents' information processing, we introduced mechanisms of updating individual belief distributions, relying on information processing. The open nature of this proposed model allows us to study the e ects of various static and time-dependent biases and information filters. In particular, the paper compares the e ects of two important psychological mechanisms: confirmation bias and politically motivated reasoning. This comparison has been prompted by recent experimental psychology work by Dan Kahan. Depending on the e ectiveness of information filtering (agent bias), agents confronted with an objective information source can either reach a consensus based on truth, or remain divided despite the evidence. In general, this model might provide understanding into increasingly polarized modern societies, especially as it allows us to mix di erent types of filters: e.g., psychological, social, and algorithmic.
The article describes the current status and potential directions of development of agent-based m... more The article describes the current status and potential directions of development of agent-based models of social opinion dynamics. Despite extensive effort, the models achieve, at best, only qualitative agreement with social observations. To understand the increasingly pressing issues such as all-encompassing political and social polarization, resurgence of fundamentalist and populist movements, persistence of socially dangerous trends such as denial of climate change, or the anti-vaccination activism, the models must be capable of handling much more complex set of agent characteristics, content of the communications (between agents and through media) as well as psychologically adequate reaction mechanisms, and realistic influence networks. Moreover, to meet the challenge of understanding the globally growing political polarization and changes brought by increasing reliance on electronic communication, the models should adapt to the post-truth era. It is necessary to include in the models phenomena such as fake news, omnipresent exaggerations and stereotypes, trolling, and algorithmic biases funneling personal information universe. We also need to consider that most social systems may be described as transient, out-of-equilibrium ones, where a crucial role is played by the models’ initial conditions. In this work, we analyze the challenges facing the modeling community and point out certain promising directions for development.
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the e... more We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-meter dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with the results of an agent-based computer model, which assumes that success depends jointly on the intrinsic talent of the agent and on unpredictable luck. We find a small, but non-zero contribution of random luck to the performance of the best sprinters, which may serve as a lower bound for the randomness role in other, less stringently controlled competitive domains. Additionally we discuss the perception of the payoff differences among the top participants, and the role of random luck in the resulting inequality.
Computational models of group opinion dynamics are one of the most active fields of sociophysics.... more Computational models of group opinion dynamics are one of the most active fields of sociophysics. In recent years, advances in model complexity and, in particular, the possibility to connect these models with detailed data describing individual behaviors, preferences and activities, have opened the way for the simulations to describe quantitatively selected, real world social systems. The simulations could be then used to study 'what-if' scenarios for opinion change campaigns, political, ideological or commercial. The possibility of the practical application of the attitude change models necessitates that the research community working in the field should consider more seriously the moral aspects of their efforts, in particular the potential for their use for unintended goals. The paper discusses these issues, and offers a suggestion for a new research direction: using the attitude models to increase the awareness and detection of social manipulation cases. Such research wou...
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016
A common practice in many organizations is to pile the work on the best performers. It is easy to... more A common practice in many organizations is to pile the work on the best performers. It is easy to implement by the management and, despite the apparent injustice, appears to be working in many situations. In our work we present a simple agent based model, constructed to simulate this practice and to analyze conditions under which the overall efficiency of the organization (for example measured by the backlog of unresolved issues) breaks down, due to the cumulative effect of the individual overloads. The model confirms that the strategy mentioned above is, indeed, rational: it leads to better global results than an alternative one, using equal workload distribution among all workers. The presented analyses focus on the behavior of the organizations close to the limit of the maximum total throughput and provide results for the growth of the unprocessed backlog in several situations, as well as suggestions related to avoiding such buildup.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
The paper presents an agent-based model of an evolution of research interests in a scientific com... more The paper presents an agent-based model of an evolution of research interests in a scientific community. The research epistemic/funding landscape is divided into separate domains, which di er in impact on society and the perceived utility, which may determine the public willingness to fund. Scientific domains also di er in their potential for attention grabbing, crucial discoveries, which make them fashionable and also attract funding. The scientists may 'follow' the availability of funds via a stylized grant based scheme. The model includes possible e ects of the additional public relation and lobbying e orts, promoting certain disciplines at the cost of others. Results are based on two multi-parameter NetLogo models. The first uses an abstract, square lattice topology, and serves as a tool to understand the e ects of the parameters describing the individual preferences. The second model, sharing the internal dynamics with the first one, is based on an actual research topics map and projects statistics, derived from the UK Research Council data for-. Despite simplifications, results reproduce characteristics of the British research community surprisingly well.
The program flow consists of separate Monte Carlo timesteps, within which the individual agents m... more The program flow consists of separate Monte Carlo timesteps, within which the individual agents may either interact with each other or respond to a news item. Each MC timestep corresponds to, on the average, one interaction per agent. As noted in the main text, the simulation time T is divided into four periods. The initial period (1 ≤ T < T 1 = 200) corresponds to the seeding of the full 2D agent domain, and is not, in a strict sense, a part of the opinion change simulation. The second period denoted in the main paper as A (T 1 ≤ T < T 2 = 800) corresponds to the long period of the two-party dominance. The third period, B, between T 2 = 800 and T 3 = 950 corresponds to the presidential campaign, and the final one, C, between T 3 and T 4 = 1180, corresponds to the parliamentary campaign. The parameters describing the media coverage in each of the periods A, B, and Care listed in Table 1 of the main paper. Within each of the periods, the flow of the simulation for an individual agent event is shown schematically in Fig A.
We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/... more We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) model, applied to a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities (supporting each of the opinions) of comparable size -- which corresponds to bipartisan split found in many real world communities. Spurred by the recent breakdown of such system, which existed in Poland for over 9 years, we extend the model by allowing a third opinion. We show that if the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the system may be ``invaded" by a newcomer third party very quickly -- in qualitative agreement with the actual political situation in Poland in 2015.
Proceedings of the 12th Annual International Digital Government Research Conference on Digital Government Innovation in Challenging Times - dg.o '11, 2011
Affordable and ubiquitous online communications (social media) provide the means for flows of ide... more Affordable and ubiquitous online communications (social media) provide the means for flows of ideas and opinions and play an increasing role for the transformation and cohesion of societyyet little is understood about how online opinions emerge, diffuse, and gain momentum. To address this problem, an opinion formation framework based on content analysis of social media and sociophysical system modeling is proposed. Based on prior research and own projects, three building blocks of online opinion tracking and simulation are described: (1) automated topic, emotion and opinion detection in real-time, (2) information flow modeling and agent-based simulation, and (3) modeling of opinion networks, including special social and psychological circumstances, such as the influence of emotions, media and leaders, changing social networks etc. Finally, three application scenarios are presented to illustrate the framework and motivate further research.
We present a computer model of opinion changes in a scientific community. The study takes into ac... more We present a computer model of opinion changes in a scientific community. The study takes into account two mechanisms of opinion formation for individual scientists: influence of coworkers with whom there is direct interaction and cumulative influence of the subject literature. We analyze the evolution of relative popularity of different competing theories, depending on their accuracy in describing observed phenomena and on current social support of the theory. We include such aspects as finite lifetime of publication impact and tendency to ‘defend’ one’s own opinions, especially if they were already published. A special class of publications, delivering crucial observational or experimental data, which may revolutionize the scientific worldview is considered. The goal of the model is to discover which conditions lead to quick domination of one theory over others, or, conversely, in which situations one may expect several explanations to co-exist.
We have examined the electron mobility mu as a function of the concentration of a two-dimensional... more We have examined the electron mobility mu as a function of the concentration of a two-dimensional electron gas n, in GaAs/AlxGa1-xAs heterostructures. Depending on the method used to vary n, different values of mu can be obtained for the same n and in the same heterostructure. We suggest the origin of this effect lies in the interdonor interactions leading to spatial correlations of remote impurity charges. It results in a significant mobility enhancement at low temperatures. This finding demonstrates the necessity of taking into account many-body effects within the impurity system in different phenomena occurring in highly doped semiconductors.
The rapid pace in which various Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning tools are developed,... more The rapid pace in which various Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning tools are developed, both within the research community and outside of it, often discourages the involved researchers from taking time to consider potential consequences and applications of the technical advances, especially the unintended ones. While there are notable exceptions to this “gold rush” tendency, individuals and groups providing careful analyses and recommendations for future actions, their adoption remains, at best, limited. This essay presents an analysis of the ethical (and not only) challenges connected with the applications of AI/ML methods in the socio-legal domain.
We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/... more We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) model, applied to a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities (supporting each of the opinions) of comparable size-which corresponds to bipartisan split found in many real world communities. Spurred by the recent breakdown of such system, which existed in Poland for over 9 years, we extend the model by allowing a third opinion. We show that if the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the system may be "invaded" by a newcomer third party very quickly-in qualitative agreement with the actual political situation in Poland in 2015.
Most of the opinion dynamics models in sociophysics have their historic origin in studies two-dim... more Most of the opinion dynamics models in sociophysics have their historic origin in studies two-dimensional magnetization phenomena. This metaphor has proven quite useful, as it allowed to use well known techniques, relating individual behaviours of single spins and their interactions, to large scale properties, such as magnetization or magnetic domains creation. These physical properties were then "mapped" to social concepts: spin orientation to a person's views on a specific issue, magnetization to global opinion on the issue, etc. During the past 20 years, the models were significantly expanded, using more complex individual agent characteristics and even more complex types of the interactions, but the power of the metaphor remained unchanged. In the current paper we propose to use a new physical system as the basis for new ideas in sociophysics. We shall argue that the concepts and tools devoted to studies of High Entropy Alloys (HEAs) could significantly broaden the range of social concepts "addressable" by sociophysics, by focusing on a wider range of global phenomena, arising from atomic properties, interactions and arrangements. We illustrate the new idea by calculating a few characteristics of a simple HEA system and their possible "mapping" into social concepts.
It is a widespread belief that success is mainly due to innate qualities, rather than to external... more It is a widespread belief that success is mainly due to innate qualities, rather than to external forces.This is particularly true in sport competitions, where individual talent is usually considered the main, if not the only, ingredient in order to reach success. In this study, with the help of both real data and agent-based simulations, we explore the limits of this belief by quantifying the relative weight of talent and chance in fencing, a combat sport involving a weapon. Fencing competitions are structured as direct elimination tournaments, where randomness is explicitly present in some rules. Our dataset covers the last decade of international events and consists of both single competition results and annual rankings for male and female fencers under 20 years old (Junior category). Our model is calibrated on the dataset and parametrized by just one free variable 'a' describing the importance of talent - and, consequently, of chance - in competitions (a = 1 indicates th...
Background: A realistic description of the social processes leading to the increasing reluctance ... more Background: A realistic description of the social processes leading to the increasing reluctance to various forms of vaccination is a very challenging task. This is due to the complexity of the psychological and social mechanisms determining the positioning of individuals and groups against vaccination and associated activities. Understanding the role played by social media and the Internet in the current spread of the anti-vaccination (AV) movement is of crucial importance. Methods: We present novel, long-term Big Data analyses of Internet activity connected with the AV movement for such different societies as the US and Poland. The datasets we analyzed cover multiyear periods preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting the behavior of vaccine related Internet activity with high temporal resolution. To understand the empirical observations, in particular the mechanism driving the peaks of AV activity, we propose an Agent Based Model (ABM) of the AV movement. The model includes the...
Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\arXiv:1... more Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\arXiv:1507.00126), we attempt to predict, three months in advance, the range of possible results of the Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 25, 2015. The model reproduces semi-quantitatively the poll results for the three parties which dominated the recent presidential elections and allows estimation of some variations of the electoral propaganda campaigns by the parties.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2015
Peer review is ubiquitous in modern science: from the evaluation of publications to the distribut... more Peer review is ubiquitous in modern science: from the evaluation of publications to the distribution of funding. While there is a long tradition of, and many arguments for, peer review as a beneficial and necessary component of scientific processes, the exponential growth of the research community, the 'publish or perish' pressures and increasing insecurity and competition for research grants have led to an increasing number of voices describing the weaknesses of the system. One of the most frequent accusations against the peer review system is that it inhibits true innovation. The availability of better data mining tools allows interested stakeholders, in principle, to monitor many aspects of the process and to promote a better understanding of the interplay of various factors. 'In principle'-because a lot of information is hidden behind the screens of anonymity and confidentiality. Our work presents an attempt at a theoretical understanding of some aspects of the process via an idealized agent-based model, which describes the effects of the peer review done by 'imperfect' agents, in particular with respect to promotion of mediocrity and to formation of self-serving cliques. The results of the model suggest that both phenomena can be quite robust and require careful monitoring of the system to combat their negative effects. Some mitigating measures are simulated and discussed.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2018
We present an introduction to a novel way of simulating individual and group opinion dynamics, ta... more We present an introduction to a novel way of simulating individual and group opinion dynamics, taking into account how various sources of information are filtered due to cognitive biases. The agent-based model presented here falls into the 'complex agent' category, in which the agents are described in considerably greater detail than in the simplest 'spinson' model. To describe agents' information processing, we introduced mechanisms of updating individual belief distributions, relying on information processing. The open nature of this proposed model allows us to study the e ects of various static and time-dependent biases and information filters. In particular, the paper compares the e ects of two important psychological mechanisms: confirmation bias and politically motivated reasoning. This comparison has been prompted by recent experimental psychology work by Dan Kahan. Depending on the e ectiveness of information filtering (agent bias), agents confronted with an objective information source can either reach a consensus based on truth, or remain divided despite the evidence. In general, this model might provide understanding into increasingly polarized modern societies, especially as it allows us to mix di erent types of filters: e.g., psychological, social, and algorithmic.
The article describes the current status and potential directions of development of agent-based m... more The article describes the current status and potential directions of development of agent-based models of social opinion dynamics. Despite extensive effort, the models achieve, at best, only qualitative agreement with social observations. To understand the increasingly pressing issues such as all-encompassing political and social polarization, resurgence of fundamentalist and populist movements, persistence of socially dangerous trends such as denial of climate change, or the anti-vaccination activism, the models must be capable of handling much more complex set of agent characteristics, content of the communications (between agents and through media) as well as psychologically adequate reaction mechanisms, and realistic influence networks. Moreover, to meet the challenge of understanding the globally growing political polarization and changes brought by increasing reliance on electronic communication, the models should adapt to the post-truth era. It is necessary to include in the models phenomena such as fake news, omnipresent exaggerations and stereotypes, trolling, and algorithmic biases funneling personal information universe. We also need to consider that most social systems may be described as transient, out-of-equilibrium ones, where a crucial role is played by the models’ initial conditions. In this work, we analyze the challenges facing the modeling community and point out certain promising directions for development.
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the e... more We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-meter dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with the results of an agent-based computer model, which assumes that success depends jointly on the intrinsic talent of the agent and on unpredictable luck. We find a small, but non-zero contribution of random luck to the performance of the best sprinters, which may serve as a lower bound for the randomness role in other, less stringently controlled competitive domains. Additionally we discuss the perception of the payoff differences among the top participants, and the role of random luck in the resulting inequality.
Computational models of group opinion dynamics are one of the most active fields of sociophysics.... more Computational models of group opinion dynamics are one of the most active fields of sociophysics. In recent years, advances in model complexity and, in particular, the possibility to connect these models with detailed data describing individual behaviors, preferences and activities, have opened the way for the simulations to describe quantitatively selected, real world social systems. The simulations could be then used to study 'what-if' scenarios for opinion change campaigns, political, ideological or commercial. The possibility of the practical application of the attitude change models necessitates that the research community working in the field should consider more seriously the moral aspects of their efforts, in particular the potential for their use for unintended goals. The paper discusses these issues, and offers a suggestion for a new research direction: using the attitude models to increase the awareness and detection of social manipulation cases. Such research wou...
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016
A common practice in many organizations is to pile the work on the best performers. It is easy to... more A common practice in many organizations is to pile the work on the best performers. It is easy to implement by the management and, despite the apparent injustice, appears to be working in many situations. In our work we present a simple agent based model, constructed to simulate this practice and to analyze conditions under which the overall efficiency of the organization (for example measured by the backlog of unresolved issues) breaks down, due to the cumulative effect of the individual overloads. The model confirms that the strategy mentioned above is, indeed, rational: it leads to better global results than an alternative one, using equal workload distribution among all workers. The presented analyses focus on the behavior of the organizations close to the limit of the maximum total throughput and provide results for the growth of the unprocessed backlog in several situations, as well as suggestions related to avoiding such buildup.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
The paper presents an agent-based model of an evolution of research interests in a scientific com... more The paper presents an agent-based model of an evolution of research interests in a scientific community. The research epistemic/funding landscape is divided into separate domains, which di er in impact on society and the perceived utility, which may determine the public willingness to fund. Scientific domains also di er in their potential for attention grabbing, crucial discoveries, which make them fashionable and also attract funding. The scientists may 'follow' the availability of funds via a stylized grant based scheme. The model includes possible e ects of the additional public relation and lobbying e orts, promoting certain disciplines at the cost of others. Results are based on two multi-parameter NetLogo models. The first uses an abstract, square lattice topology, and serves as a tool to understand the e ects of the parameters describing the individual preferences. The second model, sharing the internal dynamics with the first one, is based on an actual research topics map and projects statistics, derived from the UK Research Council data for-. Despite simplifications, results reproduce characteristics of the British research community surprisingly well.
The program flow consists of separate Monte Carlo timesteps, within which the individual agents m... more The program flow consists of separate Monte Carlo timesteps, within which the individual agents may either interact with each other or respond to a news item. Each MC timestep corresponds to, on the average, one interaction per agent. As noted in the main text, the simulation time T is divided into four periods. The initial period (1 ≤ T < T 1 = 200) corresponds to the seeding of the full 2D agent domain, and is not, in a strict sense, a part of the opinion change simulation. The second period denoted in the main paper as A (T 1 ≤ T < T 2 = 800) corresponds to the long period of the two-party dominance. The third period, B, between T 2 = 800 and T 3 = 950 corresponds to the presidential campaign, and the final one, C, between T 3 and T 4 = 1180, corresponds to the parliamentary campaign. The parameters describing the media coverage in each of the periods A, B, and Care listed in Table 1 of the main paper. Within each of the periods, the flow of the simulation for an individual agent event is shown schematically in Fig A.
We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/... more We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) model, applied to a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities (supporting each of the opinions) of comparable size -- which corresponds to bipartisan split found in many real world communities. Spurred by the recent breakdown of such system, which existed in Poland for over 9 years, we extend the model by allowing a third opinion. We show that if the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the system may be ``invaded" by a newcomer third party very quickly -- in qualitative agreement with the actual political situation in Poland in 2015.
Proceedings of the 12th Annual International Digital Government Research Conference on Digital Government Innovation in Challenging Times - dg.o '11, 2011
Affordable and ubiquitous online communications (social media) provide the means for flows of ide... more Affordable and ubiquitous online communications (social media) provide the means for flows of ideas and opinions and play an increasing role for the transformation and cohesion of societyyet little is understood about how online opinions emerge, diffuse, and gain momentum. To address this problem, an opinion formation framework based on content analysis of social media and sociophysical system modeling is proposed. Based on prior research and own projects, three building blocks of online opinion tracking and simulation are described: (1) automated topic, emotion and opinion detection in real-time, (2) information flow modeling and agent-based simulation, and (3) modeling of opinion networks, including special social and psychological circumstances, such as the influence of emotions, media and leaders, changing social networks etc. Finally, three application scenarios are presented to illustrate the framework and motivate further research.
We present a computer model of opinion changes in a scientific community. The study takes into ac... more We present a computer model of opinion changes in a scientific community. The study takes into account two mechanisms of opinion formation for individual scientists: influence of coworkers with whom there is direct interaction and cumulative influence of the subject literature. We analyze the evolution of relative popularity of different competing theories, depending on their accuracy in describing observed phenomena and on current social support of the theory. We include such aspects as finite lifetime of publication impact and tendency to ‘defend’ one’s own opinions, especially if they were already published. A special class of publications, delivering crucial observational or experimental data, which may revolutionize the scientific worldview is considered. The goal of the model is to discover which conditions lead to quick domination of one theory over others, or, conversely, in which situations one may expect several explanations to co-exist.
We have examined the electron mobility mu as a function of the concentration of a two-dimensional... more We have examined the electron mobility mu as a function of the concentration of a two-dimensional electron gas n, in GaAs/AlxGa1-xAs heterostructures. Depending on the method used to vary n, different values of mu can be obtained for the same n and in the same heterostructure. We suggest the origin of this effect lies in the interdonor interactions leading to spatial correlations of remote impurity charges. It results in a significant mobility enhancement at low temperatures. This finding demonstrates the necessity of taking into account many-body effects within the impurity system in different phenomena occurring in highly doped semiconductors.
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Papers by Pawel Sobkowicz
a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of
two subcommunities (supporting each of the opinions) of comparable size -- which corresponds to bipartisan split found in many real world communities.
Spurred by the recent breakdown of such system, which existed in Poland for over 9 years, we extend the model by allowing a third opinion.
We show that if the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the system may be ``invaded" by a newcomer third party
very quickly -- in qualitative agreement with the actual political situation in Poland in 2015.
a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of
two subcommunities (supporting each of the opinions) of comparable size -- which corresponds to bipartisan split found in many real world communities.
Spurred by the recent breakdown of such system, which existed in Poland for over 9 years, we extend the model by allowing a third opinion.
We show that if the propaganda messages of the two incumbent parties differ in emotional tone, the system may be ``invaded" by a newcomer third party
very quickly -- in qualitative agreement with the actual political situation in Poland in 2015.