Multidistrict congressional election plans may propose several districts designed to have slender... more Multidistrict congressional election plans may propose several districts designed to have slender racial/ethnic majorities in order to garner minority support. A plan ostensibly having such districts may be vulnerable to challenge by an opposing party. Among the several “majority minority” districts, there may be one or more statistical “false positives.” This chapter shows how to gauge that possibility. An applied statistician can follow this step-by-step illustration to evaluate such slender-majority districts in a plan and utilize our guidelines to evaluate any plan’s vulnerability to challenge.
Independent districting commissions encourage public engagement in the districting process, helpi... more Independent districting commissions encourage public engagement in the districting process, helping to balance competing stakeholder interests within guardrails established by Federal and State laws. This chapter highlights three common concerns: avoiding minority vote dilution, preserving communities of interest, and drawing reasonably compact lines. It recounts the public process through which the City of Waterbury, CT agreed upon and enacted a new five-district city aldermanic districting plan in 2015. Successive public commission meetings over several months accommodated a lengthy process of negotiation among citizen groups with different agendas. The outcome was a unanimously agreed-upon plan that addressed the above three concerns.
Demographic and geographic data are the foundation for redistricting and reapportionment. This ch... more Demographic and geographic data are the foundation for redistricting and reapportionment. This chapter provides a step-by-step guide to collect, manage, analyze and report data (a process known as “CMAR”) to support redistricting initiatives. Demographic data come from: (1) the April 1 “full-count” Decennial Census, the official count of total and voting-age populations by race and Hispanic ethnicity for levels of census geography as small as the “census block”; and (2) the American Community Survey’s annually updated estimates of the Citizen Voting-Age Population during specific 1-year or 5-year periods, for levels of census geography as small as the “census block group”. Geographic data show the locations of populations within “census geography” (e.g., census blocks, cities, congressional districts), and their locations relative to one another. The redistricting process can be driven by a customized database developed to leverage the full capabilities of a Geographic Information System (G.I.S.) or off-the-shelf redistricting software. For many users today, the latter option may suffice.
This chapter explains the attributes to feature when depicting a proposed plan for consideration.... more This chapter explains the attributes to feature when depicting a proposed plan for consideration. Two salient features are considered: how well the plan accords with established legal standards and precedents; and how it affords minority voters an equal opportunity to participate in the political process and elect representatives of their choice. We identify relevant standards and types of electoral districts that could confer the “opportunity to elect” on one or more protected minorities. Users can access a basic template and narrative summarizing relevant metrics and adapt them for use.
Population Research and Policy Review, May 22, 2011
ABSTRACT This applied demography case study illustrates the practical application of demographic ... more ABSTRACT This applied demography case study illustrates the practical application of demographic concepts and methods to an issue facing the court. We show how census data can be used to support a legal motion for a change of venue. “Change of venue,” the legal term for moving a trial to a new location, usually is sought to avoid prejudice against one of the parties to a lawsuit. The case study will interest demographic practitioners, and it can be used as an instructional case in teaching applied demography: students can replicate it using data for any particular pair of populous metropolitan communities. By doing so, students would gain proficiency working with Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) household records—and the person records within household records—to identify and categorize family and nonfamily relationships among household members, and practical experience translating legal issues into questions that can be answered empirically using American Community Survey (ACS) data.
Some political implications of current U.S. demographic trends are explored. Five major areas of ... more Some political implications of current U.S. demographic trends are explored. Five major areas of concern are identified which are "the circumstances of childrens families; the characteristics of the work force; the racial and ethnic makeup of local electorates; the aging of the population; and the populations geographic distribution." (EXCERPT)
Abstract : Uncertainty about migration at the local level is such that planning agencies have lit... more Abstract : Uncertainty about migration at the local level is such that planning agencies have little to guide them in estimating changes that have occurred since the 1970 census enumeration. This paper reports the results of research to develop a data-based model for estimating and projecting gross (directional) local migration. The study has been based on a unique national body of longitudinal data, the Social Security Continuous Work History Sample, covering the period 1959-1965. Two general questions have guided the analysis. First, what economic and demographic factors account for the variations over time in cities' gross inflow and outflow rates. Second, how can these variations be monitored reliably in view of widely varying inflow and outflow levels, but their short-term responsiveness to economic conditions.
Multidistrict congressional election plans may propose several districts designed to have slender... more Multidistrict congressional election plans may propose several districts designed to have slender racial/ethnic majorities in order to garner minority support. A plan ostensibly having such districts may be vulnerable to challenge by an opposing party. Among the several “majority minority” districts, there may be one or more statistical “false positives.” This chapter shows how to gauge that possibility. An applied statistician can follow this step-by-step illustration to evaluate such slender-majority districts in a plan and utilize our guidelines to evaluate any plan’s vulnerability to challenge.
Independent districting commissions encourage public engagement in the districting process, helpi... more Independent districting commissions encourage public engagement in the districting process, helping to balance competing stakeholder interests within guardrails established by Federal and State laws. This chapter highlights three common concerns: avoiding minority vote dilution, preserving communities of interest, and drawing reasonably compact lines. It recounts the public process through which the City of Waterbury, CT agreed upon and enacted a new five-district city aldermanic districting plan in 2015. Successive public commission meetings over several months accommodated a lengthy process of negotiation among citizen groups with different agendas. The outcome was a unanimously agreed-upon plan that addressed the above three concerns.
Demographic and geographic data are the foundation for redistricting and reapportionment. This ch... more Demographic and geographic data are the foundation for redistricting and reapportionment. This chapter provides a step-by-step guide to collect, manage, analyze and report data (a process known as “CMAR”) to support redistricting initiatives. Demographic data come from: (1) the April 1 “full-count” Decennial Census, the official count of total and voting-age populations by race and Hispanic ethnicity for levels of census geography as small as the “census block”; and (2) the American Community Survey’s annually updated estimates of the Citizen Voting-Age Population during specific 1-year or 5-year periods, for levels of census geography as small as the “census block group”. Geographic data show the locations of populations within “census geography” (e.g., census blocks, cities, congressional districts), and their locations relative to one another. The redistricting process can be driven by a customized database developed to leverage the full capabilities of a Geographic Information System (G.I.S.) or off-the-shelf redistricting software. For many users today, the latter option may suffice.
This chapter explains the attributes to feature when depicting a proposed plan for consideration.... more This chapter explains the attributes to feature when depicting a proposed plan for consideration. Two salient features are considered: how well the plan accords with established legal standards and precedents; and how it affords minority voters an equal opportunity to participate in the political process and elect representatives of their choice. We identify relevant standards and types of electoral districts that could confer the “opportunity to elect” on one or more protected minorities. Users can access a basic template and narrative summarizing relevant metrics and adapt them for use.
Population Research and Policy Review, May 22, 2011
ABSTRACT This applied demography case study illustrates the practical application of demographic ... more ABSTRACT This applied demography case study illustrates the practical application of demographic concepts and methods to an issue facing the court. We show how census data can be used to support a legal motion for a change of venue. “Change of venue,” the legal term for moving a trial to a new location, usually is sought to avoid prejudice against one of the parties to a lawsuit. The case study will interest demographic practitioners, and it can be used as an instructional case in teaching applied demography: students can replicate it using data for any particular pair of populous metropolitan communities. By doing so, students would gain proficiency working with Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) household records—and the person records within household records—to identify and categorize family and nonfamily relationships among household members, and practical experience translating legal issues into questions that can be answered empirically using American Community Survey (ACS) data.
Some political implications of current U.S. demographic trends are explored. Five major areas of ... more Some political implications of current U.S. demographic trends are explored. Five major areas of concern are identified which are "the circumstances of childrens families; the characteristics of the work force; the racial and ethnic makeup of local electorates; the aging of the population; and the populations geographic distribution." (EXCERPT)
Abstract : Uncertainty about migration at the local level is such that planning agencies have lit... more Abstract : Uncertainty about migration at the local level is such that planning agencies have little to guide them in estimating changes that have occurred since the 1970 census enumeration. This paper reports the results of research to develop a data-based model for estimating and projecting gross (directional) local migration. The study has been based on a unique national body of longitudinal data, the Social Security Continuous Work History Sample, covering the period 1959-1965. Two general questions have guided the analysis. First, what economic and demographic factors account for the variations over time in cities' gross inflow and outflow rates. Second, how can these variations be monitored reliably in view of widely varying inflow and outflow levels, but their short-term responsiveness to economic conditions.
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Papers by Peter A Morrison