Compulsory acquisition of land is contested bitterly by affected landowners for various reasons i... more Compulsory acquisition of land is contested bitterly by affected landowners for various reasons including fairness in the compensation that is offered to landowners and fairness in the process that is followed in land acquisition by acquiring authorities. While there is a volume of research that has focussed on compensation, there is a paucity of literature analysing fairness in the process of land acquisition. This paper examines fairness in land acquisition using the case of Scotland, which is currently in the process of reforming laws and policies governing the compulsory acquisition of land. A primary survey was undertaken with stakeholders involved in a road project and information was analysed using 'qualitative content analysis'. This research identifies the gaps in the existing process of compulsory acquisition using the theoretical lens of 'procedural justice' with a strong focus on the social psychology dimension and argues for the incorporation of basic principles of 'procedural justice'. Fifteen major procedural gaps were identified, which include weak decision-making power of the members of the public in the identification and design of public projects; inadequate representation of objectors due to the high personal cost associated with representation in a public inquiry; time delays; information asymmetries and inefficient grievance management.
India has been reluctantly urbanizing. The caricature of “urban” in India today is mired in numer... more India has been reluctantly urbanizing. The caricature of “urban” in India today is mired in numerous contradictions — both physical and visual — to coalesce in a “landscape of pluralism” (Mehrotra, 2008). Urban migration has added 20 million to cities during the last decade but the charm of big cities is fading away (Pradhan, 2013). This is when only 31 per cent of the country is urbanized, far below other developing countries like China (50.6 per cent). There have been concerted efforts from state and central government to mainstream slums and informal sectors in urban India. Yet there are attempts to clean up Indian cities by ridding streets and public lands of squatters and slums and reclaiming public spaces for the use of “proper citizens”. Even as these public spaces are reclaimed for general use, there is still a proliferation of segregated and protected spaces for elite consumption (Chatterjee, 2004).
Housing policy formulation should be informed by a careful understanding of the behaviour of the ... more Housing policy formulation should be informed by a careful understanding of the behaviour of the housing market, as reflected by housing demand. Such basic information is important, not only for improved project design but also for the development of better sector-wide policies. Housing is a complex outcome of cultural, economic and regulatory environment. Consistent estimates of price and income elasticity of housing demand are prerequisites for effective policy design. Results, from earlier studies on Japanese housing markets, are inconclusive and the estimates of price and income elasticity of housing demand vary over a wide range. It may be argued that measuring the volume of housing services as housing expenditure, as is done in previous research, essentially ignores the heterogeneity, and for large number of policy purposes like impact of tax on tenure choice, choice between owning and renting etc., the distribution of housing consumption into qualitatively different categories is of more interest than an aggregate qualitative measure of housing expenditure alone. This paper analyzes the demand for housing in Tokyo using a discrete choice model. Three dimensions of choice, tenure, dwelling size (as number of rooms) and structure type (as type of unit) determine demand for housing which are modeled simultaneously. The income elasticity of market share of ownership house is positive and ranges between 0.16 to 0.34. However, income elasticity for rental houses is negative ranging between -0.17 to -0.57. The own price elasticities vary over a large range from -0.03 to -5.1 with smaller in magnitude for ownership houses and larger for rental houses.
Taking inspiration from the longstanding problem of inadequate compensation for the compulsory ac... more Taking inspiration from the longstanding problem of inadequate compensation for the compulsory acquisition of private land for a public purpose, this research estimates the economic value of (i) future development potential of land or ‘hope value’; and (ii) depreciation in property value due to acquisition notification or ‘blight’. Using empirical data on property transactions conducted in the Bengaluru Mysore Infrastructure Corridor (BMIC) project area and registered with sub-registrar offices in Bengaluru India during 2007–14, this research innovatively combines the duration model and hedonic price model to estimate the above. Results indicate that the current mechanisms for compensation are inadequately compensating for the land. The loss of the hope value ranges between 2.39 to 8.35 times the market value of agricultural land in 2006 and loss due to blight is approximately 31 percent. Compensating for these losses ex-ante should induce fairness in the compulsory acquisition proc...
This paper focuses on understanding the observed differences in interest rates on single-family r... more This paper focuses on understanding the observed differences in interest rates on single-family residential mortgages during September 2008 to December 2017. Exploiting the conceptual difference in risks associated with fixed rate and variable rate mortgages for lenders, we construct a synthetic variable rate. Synthetic variables are obtained from 3-year fixed rates by adjusting them for interest rate risks premium and call options that are embedded in fixed rates. Estimated error correction model for the difference between actual and synthetic mortgage rate reveals that the unbiasedness hypothesis is rejected and that the lenders in pricing actual variable rates have attached a risk premia of 90 to 150 basis points over synthetic rates. This requires further investigation into institutional arrangements, market structures, underwriting and lending practices of banks as these remain unexplained.
Shopping centres are an integral part and a critical component of urban cities in most economies.... more Shopping centres are an integral part and a critical component of urban cities in most economies. Typically, the shorter refurbishment cycle and frequent tenant replacements in shopping centres cause excessive use of building materials over its service life. This drastic use of resources, consequently, increase life cycle embodied energy (LCEE) and life cycle material cost (LCMC) of shopping centres. Therefore, careful selection of materials is vital to reduce the negative environmental impacts and material costs. Current research on the implications of material choices on LCEE and LCMC of shopping centres are insubstantial and decisions makers are left with limited information to make better selections. Therefore, selection of energy efficient, cost-effective and environmentally responsive materials and assemblies has been a critical process for the professionals who are involved in decision-making. This paper proposes the use of object-oriented programming (OOP) to develop a mathematical model to develop combinations of building assemblies with minimum LCEE and LCMC of shopping centres through material selection. The model is based for sub-regional shopping centres in Australia, yet can be applied for any similar property type with modifications to databases and model architecture. However, scope of this paper is limited to the development of model architecture with detailed explanations on databases and computing core development. Even though, the detailed presentation of development of OOP structure provides proper insight to the mathematical core for future application.
Allocating land-related social, economic, and legal benefits to people is crucial for meeting the... more Allocating land-related social, economic, and legal benefits to people is crucial for meeting the commitments made by various countries for achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). Economic growth in developing countries in the Southeast Asian region is very rapid, requiring primary resources such as land, which poses challenges for implementing nationally determined commitments towards SDGs. This paper quantitatively compares the relevant policy instruments issued by the key ASEAN countries to analyze the importance of land provision in achieving the specific SDGs. Using content analysis to formulate a framework for comparing the various policy instruments and strategic plans, the article identifies the importance of land use in various policy instruments focused on achieving SDGs. Most countries use authoritative instruments to incorporate land-related aspects. The use of the symbolic, capacity-building, and incentive instruments is relatively lesser. Many countries give pr...
The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the num... more The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI's working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication.
24th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference, 2017
China top 13 cities (Second tier, top 8) Source: CitiRE China top 13 cities house prices China to... more China top 13 cities (Second tier, top 8) Source: CitiRE China top 13 cities house prices China top 13 cities house prices • Calculated based on principal component methods • National house prices have been through three troughs during the last eight years. (2007-2015), 2008Q4 ,GFC, 2011Q4 and 2014Q3, reflecting the cyclical nature of China's housing markets. • average house prices increased from RMB 29,358 per square meter in 2007Q2 to RMB 70,003 per square meter in 2015Q3, which is an increase by 138.45%, more than double over 8 years.
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 2018
PurposeThis paper aims to explore principal drivers affecting prices in the Australian housing ma... more PurposeThis paper aims to explore principal drivers affecting prices in the Australian housing market, aiming to detect the presence of housing bubbles within it. The data set analyzed covers the past two decades, thereby including the period of the most recent housing boom between 2012 and 2015.Design/methodology/approachThe paper describes the application of combined enhanced rigorous econometric frameworks, such as ordinary least square (OLS), Granger causality and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework, to provide an in-depth understanding of house price dynamics and bubbles in Australia.FindingsThe empirical results presented reveal that Australian house prices are driven primarily by four key factors: mortgage interest rates, consumer sentiment, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 stock market index and unemployment rates. It finds that these four key drivers have long-term equilibrium in relation to house prices, and any short-term disequilibrium always self-corrects over ...
Modern urban development in India has largely ignored the issue of the natural environment. Indee... more Modern urban development in India has largely ignored the issue of the natural environment. Indeed, the two are often perceived as existing in separate silos — with the environment as an afterthought if that. Large infrastructure projects, land reclamation, water delivery, and waste disposal systems are planned with little thought to their impact on the environment. Cities draw increasingly heavily on the natural resources of their surroundings. For instance, almost every Indian city relies on the surrounding rural areas for its water supply, and then pumps the wastewater into neighbouring rivers, lakes, or the sea. The air pollution generated by cities is not partially absorbed by greenery within the city, but spreads to a wider area. Similarly, solid waste is often disposed of in landfills around the city, polluting the earth and groundwater.
Is India actually “shining” or is it a mirage preserved intentionally? India is boasting about it... more Is India actually “shining” or is it a mirage preserved intentionally? India is boasting about its burgeoning urbanization, which is often linked with economic growth, but the actuality is that the pace of urbanization is slow, as is the pace of economic growth and infrastructure development in the country. Small patches of development concentrated in few primate cities cannot be the true representation of the holistic picture of the country. With only 2.5 per cent urban land area, the outcry about the availability and affordability of land for development of cities is appearing very illusive. To exaggerate the misery of cities, the solution to the problem of growing population inside cities, if it is considered a problem at all, is addressed by the creation of policy-level checks, and the rationale behind doing that is often linked with existing congestion and high density in most Indian cities. The question then arises whether policy control over population growth of cities is the best thing to do? A broad answer to this can be stated simply by appreciating the fact that cities are emerging as modern centres of growth and development, offering better work opportunities and quality of life, and therefore shall be expanded in all dimensions so as to cater to the emerging needs of its original inhabitants as well as the newcomers.
Proceedings of the 19th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference - Edinburgh, Scotland, 2012
The literature has documented and rationalized a positive correlation between volume of sales and... more The literature has documented and rationalized a positive correlation between volume of sales and appreciation rates in the housing market. Moreover, home appreciation rates have shown to be persistent and predictable over time. In this study, we test the predictive power of variables that measure market tightness on future home prices. A stylized search-and-matching model is used to illustrate that indicators that measure market tightness, such as sale probabilities and seller's bargaining power, can be associated with future home price appreciation. The empirical analysis uses Multiple Listing Services data from the Netherlands and from Fairfax County, VA, that contain all residential units offered for sale through a real estate broker over a 15 year period. The individual records are used to construct quarterly aggregate measures of housing conditions in about 40 regions in the Netherlands and in 41 zip codes in Fairfax County. Besides home price indices, the indicators include an index that measures seller's bargaining power and the (quality adjusted) probability that a home sells in less than 2 weeks. Conventional time-series models are then used to show that observed changes in sale rates and bargaining power can significantly reduce home price appreciation forecast errors.
Given the expected scale of the urban transformation in India over the next decade, and the time ... more Given the expected scale of the urban transformation in India over the next decade, and the time compaction within which this will occur, this study presents a crucial analysis of the challenges facing urban India. Through a close examination of India's policies, politics, and economic and social systems, it explores the numerous perspectives and debates on India's urbanization. Where is urbanization happening and what are the key drivers and forces – local, regional, national, or international? It seeks to highlight the dividends and perils of urbanization as they have and will play out over the years, and attempts to paint a picture of the future of urbanization in India. India's Reluctant Urbanization is essential reading for scholars and researchers of urban economics and those interested in development economics and, in particular, India's economy.
This primary objective of this paper is to examine the causes for the change in energy consumptio... more This primary objective of this paper is to examine the causes for the change in energy consumption in the transport sector in India. The pattern of energy consumption and their causes for change are benchmarked against select countries. A mathematical model that decomposes changes in energy consumption to various factors has been used. The changes in the energy consumption are attributed to growth in transport volume, structural change or modal shift, and energy intensity. The analysis is conducted for passenger and freight transport separately. Results indicate that the growth in transport volume has been the main cause for increase in energy consumption for both passenger and freight transport in India despite the decline in energy intensity of various transport modes. Though not surprising for a growing economy like India, this poses a challenge for the future. Currently, India is a low carbon economy. However, the choices that the economy is making, as it is growing, are towards energy intensive options particularly in transportation and building sectors. There is a need for policy framework to steer the economy towards making appropriate choices that are environmentally sustainable and also do not jeopardize economic growth aspirations. In case of passenger transport, the trend is comparable with other countries studied in this paper (US, Canada, China, Japan, UK) except France. For freight transport, the contribution of the increase in transport volume to changes in energy consumption is far higher in India than that amongst the countries compared, though all countries except Japan have shown a positive contribution of increase in volume to the changes in energy consumption. The large contribution of the transport volume to the changes in passenger transport energy consumption is due to increasing shift towards personalized modes of transport (such as cars, two wheelers) in India and decrease in passenger occupancy per vehicle. The growth in freight transport energy consumption is a reflection of the high growth of the economy. The problem, however, is that a large part of freight is transported using road unlike that in some other benchmarked countries. Future policies aimed at containing energy consumption in the transport sector would need to focus on the modal structure which would require more use of rail for transportation of freight and public transportation systems for passenger transport. This would, however, require huge inefficiencies to be overcome before consumer choice shifts towards rail or public transportation system.
Compulsory acquisition of land is contested bitterly by affected landowners for various reasons i... more Compulsory acquisition of land is contested bitterly by affected landowners for various reasons including fairness in the compensation that is offered to landowners and fairness in the process that is followed in land acquisition by acquiring authorities. While there is a volume of research that has focussed on compensation, there is a paucity of literature analysing fairness in the process of land acquisition. This paper examines fairness in land acquisition using the case of Scotland, which is currently in the process of reforming laws and policies governing the compulsory acquisition of land. A primary survey was undertaken with stakeholders involved in a road project and information was analysed using 'qualitative content analysis'. This research identifies the gaps in the existing process of compulsory acquisition using the theoretical lens of 'procedural justice' with a strong focus on the social psychology dimension and argues for the incorporation of basic principles of 'procedural justice'. Fifteen major procedural gaps were identified, which include weak decision-making power of the members of the public in the identification and design of public projects; inadequate representation of objectors due to the high personal cost associated with representation in a public inquiry; time delays; information asymmetries and inefficient grievance management.
India has been reluctantly urbanizing. The caricature of “urban” in India today is mired in numer... more India has been reluctantly urbanizing. The caricature of “urban” in India today is mired in numerous contradictions — both physical and visual — to coalesce in a “landscape of pluralism” (Mehrotra, 2008). Urban migration has added 20 million to cities during the last decade but the charm of big cities is fading away (Pradhan, 2013). This is when only 31 per cent of the country is urbanized, far below other developing countries like China (50.6 per cent). There have been concerted efforts from state and central government to mainstream slums and informal sectors in urban India. Yet there are attempts to clean up Indian cities by ridding streets and public lands of squatters and slums and reclaiming public spaces for the use of “proper citizens”. Even as these public spaces are reclaimed for general use, there is still a proliferation of segregated and protected spaces for elite consumption (Chatterjee, 2004).
Housing policy formulation should be informed by a careful understanding of the behaviour of the ... more Housing policy formulation should be informed by a careful understanding of the behaviour of the housing market, as reflected by housing demand. Such basic information is important, not only for improved project design but also for the development of better sector-wide policies. Housing is a complex outcome of cultural, economic and regulatory environment. Consistent estimates of price and income elasticity of housing demand are prerequisites for effective policy design. Results, from earlier studies on Japanese housing markets, are inconclusive and the estimates of price and income elasticity of housing demand vary over a wide range. It may be argued that measuring the volume of housing services as housing expenditure, as is done in previous research, essentially ignores the heterogeneity, and for large number of policy purposes like impact of tax on tenure choice, choice between owning and renting etc., the distribution of housing consumption into qualitatively different categories is of more interest than an aggregate qualitative measure of housing expenditure alone. This paper analyzes the demand for housing in Tokyo using a discrete choice model. Three dimensions of choice, tenure, dwelling size (as number of rooms) and structure type (as type of unit) determine demand for housing which are modeled simultaneously. The income elasticity of market share of ownership house is positive and ranges between 0.16 to 0.34. However, income elasticity for rental houses is negative ranging between -0.17 to -0.57. The own price elasticities vary over a large range from -0.03 to -5.1 with smaller in magnitude for ownership houses and larger for rental houses.
Taking inspiration from the longstanding problem of inadequate compensation for the compulsory ac... more Taking inspiration from the longstanding problem of inadequate compensation for the compulsory acquisition of private land for a public purpose, this research estimates the economic value of (i) future development potential of land or ‘hope value’; and (ii) depreciation in property value due to acquisition notification or ‘blight’. Using empirical data on property transactions conducted in the Bengaluru Mysore Infrastructure Corridor (BMIC) project area and registered with sub-registrar offices in Bengaluru India during 2007–14, this research innovatively combines the duration model and hedonic price model to estimate the above. Results indicate that the current mechanisms for compensation are inadequately compensating for the land. The loss of the hope value ranges between 2.39 to 8.35 times the market value of agricultural land in 2006 and loss due to blight is approximately 31 percent. Compensating for these losses ex-ante should induce fairness in the compulsory acquisition proc...
This paper focuses on understanding the observed differences in interest rates on single-family r... more This paper focuses on understanding the observed differences in interest rates on single-family residential mortgages during September 2008 to December 2017. Exploiting the conceptual difference in risks associated with fixed rate and variable rate mortgages for lenders, we construct a synthetic variable rate. Synthetic variables are obtained from 3-year fixed rates by adjusting them for interest rate risks premium and call options that are embedded in fixed rates. Estimated error correction model for the difference between actual and synthetic mortgage rate reveals that the unbiasedness hypothesis is rejected and that the lenders in pricing actual variable rates have attached a risk premia of 90 to 150 basis points over synthetic rates. This requires further investigation into institutional arrangements, market structures, underwriting and lending practices of banks as these remain unexplained.
Shopping centres are an integral part and a critical component of urban cities in most economies.... more Shopping centres are an integral part and a critical component of urban cities in most economies. Typically, the shorter refurbishment cycle and frequent tenant replacements in shopping centres cause excessive use of building materials over its service life. This drastic use of resources, consequently, increase life cycle embodied energy (LCEE) and life cycle material cost (LCMC) of shopping centres. Therefore, careful selection of materials is vital to reduce the negative environmental impacts and material costs. Current research on the implications of material choices on LCEE and LCMC of shopping centres are insubstantial and decisions makers are left with limited information to make better selections. Therefore, selection of energy efficient, cost-effective and environmentally responsive materials and assemblies has been a critical process for the professionals who are involved in decision-making. This paper proposes the use of object-oriented programming (OOP) to develop a mathematical model to develop combinations of building assemblies with minimum LCEE and LCMC of shopping centres through material selection. The model is based for sub-regional shopping centres in Australia, yet can be applied for any similar property type with modifications to databases and model architecture. However, scope of this paper is limited to the development of model architecture with detailed explanations on databases and computing core development. Even though, the detailed presentation of development of OOP structure provides proper insight to the mathematical core for future application.
Allocating land-related social, economic, and legal benefits to people is crucial for meeting the... more Allocating land-related social, economic, and legal benefits to people is crucial for meeting the commitments made by various countries for achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). Economic growth in developing countries in the Southeast Asian region is very rapid, requiring primary resources such as land, which poses challenges for implementing nationally determined commitments towards SDGs. This paper quantitatively compares the relevant policy instruments issued by the key ASEAN countries to analyze the importance of land provision in achieving the specific SDGs. Using content analysis to formulate a framework for comparing the various policy instruments and strategic plans, the article identifies the importance of land use in various policy instruments focused on achieving SDGs. Most countries use authoritative instruments to incorporate land-related aspects. The use of the symbolic, capacity-building, and incentive instruments is relatively lesser. Many countries give pr...
The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the num... more The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI's working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication.
24th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference, 2017
China top 13 cities (Second tier, top 8) Source: CitiRE China top 13 cities house prices China to... more China top 13 cities (Second tier, top 8) Source: CitiRE China top 13 cities house prices China top 13 cities house prices • Calculated based on principal component methods • National house prices have been through three troughs during the last eight years. (2007-2015), 2008Q4 ,GFC, 2011Q4 and 2014Q3, reflecting the cyclical nature of China's housing markets. • average house prices increased from RMB 29,358 per square meter in 2007Q2 to RMB 70,003 per square meter in 2015Q3, which is an increase by 138.45%, more than double over 8 years.
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 2018
PurposeThis paper aims to explore principal drivers affecting prices in the Australian housing ma... more PurposeThis paper aims to explore principal drivers affecting prices in the Australian housing market, aiming to detect the presence of housing bubbles within it. The data set analyzed covers the past two decades, thereby including the period of the most recent housing boom between 2012 and 2015.Design/methodology/approachThe paper describes the application of combined enhanced rigorous econometric frameworks, such as ordinary least square (OLS), Granger causality and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework, to provide an in-depth understanding of house price dynamics and bubbles in Australia.FindingsThe empirical results presented reveal that Australian house prices are driven primarily by four key factors: mortgage interest rates, consumer sentiment, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 stock market index and unemployment rates. It finds that these four key drivers have long-term equilibrium in relation to house prices, and any short-term disequilibrium always self-corrects over ...
Modern urban development in India has largely ignored the issue of the natural environment. Indee... more Modern urban development in India has largely ignored the issue of the natural environment. Indeed, the two are often perceived as existing in separate silos — with the environment as an afterthought if that. Large infrastructure projects, land reclamation, water delivery, and waste disposal systems are planned with little thought to their impact on the environment. Cities draw increasingly heavily on the natural resources of their surroundings. For instance, almost every Indian city relies on the surrounding rural areas for its water supply, and then pumps the wastewater into neighbouring rivers, lakes, or the sea. The air pollution generated by cities is not partially absorbed by greenery within the city, but spreads to a wider area. Similarly, solid waste is often disposed of in landfills around the city, polluting the earth and groundwater.
Is India actually “shining” or is it a mirage preserved intentionally? India is boasting about it... more Is India actually “shining” or is it a mirage preserved intentionally? India is boasting about its burgeoning urbanization, which is often linked with economic growth, but the actuality is that the pace of urbanization is slow, as is the pace of economic growth and infrastructure development in the country. Small patches of development concentrated in few primate cities cannot be the true representation of the holistic picture of the country. With only 2.5 per cent urban land area, the outcry about the availability and affordability of land for development of cities is appearing very illusive. To exaggerate the misery of cities, the solution to the problem of growing population inside cities, if it is considered a problem at all, is addressed by the creation of policy-level checks, and the rationale behind doing that is often linked with existing congestion and high density in most Indian cities. The question then arises whether policy control over population growth of cities is the best thing to do? A broad answer to this can be stated simply by appreciating the fact that cities are emerging as modern centres of growth and development, offering better work opportunities and quality of life, and therefore shall be expanded in all dimensions so as to cater to the emerging needs of its original inhabitants as well as the newcomers.
Proceedings of the 19th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference - Edinburgh, Scotland, 2012
The literature has documented and rationalized a positive correlation between volume of sales and... more The literature has documented and rationalized a positive correlation between volume of sales and appreciation rates in the housing market. Moreover, home appreciation rates have shown to be persistent and predictable over time. In this study, we test the predictive power of variables that measure market tightness on future home prices. A stylized search-and-matching model is used to illustrate that indicators that measure market tightness, such as sale probabilities and seller's bargaining power, can be associated with future home price appreciation. The empirical analysis uses Multiple Listing Services data from the Netherlands and from Fairfax County, VA, that contain all residential units offered for sale through a real estate broker over a 15 year period. The individual records are used to construct quarterly aggregate measures of housing conditions in about 40 regions in the Netherlands and in 41 zip codes in Fairfax County. Besides home price indices, the indicators include an index that measures seller's bargaining power and the (quality adjusted) probability that a home sells in less than 2 weeks. Conventional time-series models are then used to show that observed changes in sale rates and bargaining power can significantly reduce home price appreciation forecast errors.
Given the expected scale of the urban transformation in India over the next decade, and the time ... more Given the expected scale of the urban transformation in India over the next decade, and the time compaction within which this will occur, this study presents a crucial analysis of the challenges facing urban India. Through a close examination of India's policies, politics, and economic and social systems, it explores the numerous perspectives and debates on India's urbanization. Where is urbanization happening and what are the key drivers and forces – local, regional, national, or international? It seeks to highlight the dividends and perils of urbanization as they have and will play out over the years, and attempts to paint a picture of the future of urbanization in India. India's Reluctant Urbanization is essential reading for scholars and researchers of urban economics and those interested in development economics and, in particular, India's economy.
This primary objective of this paper is to examine the causes for the change in energy consumptio... more This primary objective of this paper is to examine the causes for the change in energy consumption in the transport sector in India. The pattern of energy consumption and their causes for change are benchmarked against select countries. A mathematical model that decomposes changes in energy consumption to various factors has been used. The changes in the energy consumption are attributed to growth in transport volume, structural change or modal shift, and energy intensity. The analysis is conducted for passenger and freight transport separately. Results indicate that the growth in transport volume has been the main cause for increase in energy consumption for both passenger and freight transport in India despite the decline in energy intensity of various transport modes. Though not surprising for a growing economy like India, this poses a challenge for the future. Currently, India is a low carbon economy. However, the choices that the economy is making, as it is growing, are towards energy intensive options particularly in transportation and building sectors. There is a need for policy framework to steer the economy towards making appropriate choices that are environmentally sustainable and also do not jeopardize economic growth aspirations. In case of passenger transport, the trend is comparable with other countries studied in this paper (US, Canada, China, Japan, UK) except France. For freight transport, the contribution of the increase in transport volume to changes in energy consumption is far higher in India than that amongst the countries compared, though all countries except Japan have shown a positive contribution of increase in volume to the changes in energy consumption. The large contribution of the transport volume to the changes in passenger transport energy consumption is due to increasing shift towards personalized modes of transport (such as cars, two wheelers) in India and decrease in passenger occupancy per vehicle. The growth in freight transport energy consumption is a reflection of the high growth of the economy. The problem, however, is that a large part of freight is transported using road unlike that in some other benchmarked countries. Future policies aimed at containing energy consumption in the transport sector would need to focus on the modal structure which would require more use of rail for transportation of freight and public transportation systems for passenger transport. This would, however, require huge inefficiencies to be overcome before consumer choice shifts towards rail or public transportation system.
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Papers by Piyush Tiwari