Fire scar evidence in eastern North America is sparse and complex but shows promise in defining t... more Fire scar evidence in eastern North America is sparse and complex but shows promise in defining the dynamics of these fire regimes and their influence on ecosystems. We review fire scar data, methods, and limitations, and use this information to identify and examine the factors influencing fire regimes. Fire scar data from studies at more than 40 sites in Eastern North America document fire regimes in forests with oak. Fire frequency was highly variable in both time and space even at regional scales (less than 500,000 ha). Many sites burned frequently (2- to 3-year mean fire intervals) while nearby sites (less than 40 km distant) burned infrequently (mean fire intervals more than 20 years). The fire scar record shows that major factors controlling temporal differences in fire regimes are changes in human population density, culture, and annual drought. Spatial differences in fire regimes are influenced by regional temperature, human population density, and topographic resistance to ...
To test tree growth sensitivity to temperature under different ambient CO2 concentrations, we det... more To test tree growth sensitivity to temperature under different ambient CO2 concentrations, we determined stem radial growth rates as they relate to variation in temperature during the last deglacial period, and compare these to modern tree growth rates as they relate to spatial variation in temperature across the modern species distributional range. Paleo oaks were sampled from Northern Missouri, USA and compared to a pollen-based, high-resolution paleo temperature reconstruction from Northern Illinois, USA. Growth data were from 53 paleo bur oak log cross sections collected in Missouri. These oaks were preserved in river and stream sediments and were radiocarbon-dated to a period of rapid climate change during the last deglaciation (10.5 and 13.3Â cal kyr BP). Growth data from modern bur oaks were obtained from increment core collections paired with USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data collected across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes regions. For m...
... Steven L., Rose-Marie Muzika, Richard P. Guyette, and Michael C. Stambaugh. 2006. ... HISTORI... more ... Steven L., Rose-Marie Muzika, Richard P. Guyette, and Michael C. Stambaugh. 2006. ... HISTORICAL CO 2 GROWTH ENHANCEMENT DECLINES WITH AGE IN QUERCUS AND PINUS. Steven L. Voelker 1 , Rose-Marie Muzika, Richard P. Guyette, and Michael C. Stambaugh ...
Climate has a primary influence on the occurrence and rate of combustion in ecosystems with carbo... more Climate has a primary influence on the occurrence and rate of combustion in ecosystems with carbon-based fuels such as forests and grasslands. Society will be confronted with the effects of climate change on fire in future forests. There are, however, few quantitative appraisals of how climate will affect wildland fire in
the United States. We demonstrated a method for estimating changes in fire probability based on future climate simulations of temperature and precipitation. The probability of a fire
occurring in a particular climate was extracted from the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) and represented the rate of change in fire due to climate. Climate output data from two global climate models (GCMs) were applied to the PC2FM to estimate changes in fire probability. We calculated change in fire
frequency and probabilities from the difference between current and future climates and mapped climate-forced percentage change in fire probability under each GCM for the nation at a 1.2 km2 scale. Future fire probability estimates increased in cooler northern and high elevation regions but decreased slightly in some hotter and drier regions of the southwestern United States. Our approach’s greatest strength may be reliance on only climate data and the simple principles of physical chemistry; many other
nonclimatic factors that affect fire are often difficult to predict in the distant future.
For many regions of the Earth, anthropogenic climate change is expected to result in increasingly... more For many regions of the Earth, anthropogenic climate change is expected to result in increasingly divergent climate extremes. However, little is known about how increasing climate variance may affect ecosystem productivity. Forest ecosystems may be particularly susceptible to this problem considering the complex organizational structure of specialized species niche adaptations. Forest decline is often attributable to multiple stressors including prolonged heat, wildfire and insect outbreaks. These disturbances, often categorized as megadisturbances, can push temperate forests beyond sustainability thresholds. Absent from much of the contemporary forest health literature, however, is the discussion of excessive precipitation that may affect other disturbances synergistically or that might represent a principal stressor. Here, specific points of evidence are provided including historic climatology, variance predictions from global change modeling, Midwestern paleo climate data, local climate influences on net ecosystem exchange and productivity, and pathogen influences on oak mortality. Data sources reveal potential trends, deserving further investigation, indicating that the western edge of the Eastern Deciduous forest may be impacted by ongoing increased precipitation, precipitation variance and excessive wetness. Data presented, in conjunction with recent regional forest health concerns, suggest that climate variance including drought and excessive wetness should be equally considered for forest ecosystem resilience against increasingly dynamic climate. This communication serves as an alert to the need for studies on potential impacts of increasing climate variance and excessive wetness in forest ecosystem health and productivity in the Midwest US and similar forest ecosystems globally.
Fire scar evidence in eastern North America is sparse and complex but shows promise in defining t... more Fire scar evidence in eastern North America is sparse and complex but shows promise in defining the dynamics of these fire regimes and their influence on ecosystems. We review fire scar data, methods, and limitations, and use this information to identify and examine the factors influencing fire regimes. Fire scar data from studies at more than 40 sites in Eastern North America document fire regimes in forests with oak. Fire frequency was highly variable in both time and space even at regional scales (less than 500,000 ha). Many sites burned frequently (2- to 3-year mean fire intervals) while nearby sites (less than 40 km distant) burned infrequently (mean fire intervals more than 20 years). The fire scar record shows that major factors controlling temporal differences in fire regimes are changes in human population density, culture, and annual drought. Spatial differences in fire regimes are influenced by regional temperature, human population density, and topographic resistance to ...
To test tree growth sensitivity to temperature under different ambient CO2 concentrations, we det... more To test tree growth sensitivity to temperature under different ambient CO2 concentrations, we determined stem radial growth rates as they relate to variation in temperature during the last deglacial period, and compare these to modern tree growth rates as they relate to spatial variation in temperature across the modern species distributional range. Paleo oaks were sampled from Northern Missouri, USA and compared to a pollen-based, high-resolution paleo temperature reconstruction from Northern Illinois, USA. Growth data were from 53 paleo bur oak log cross sections collected in Missouri. These oaks were preserved in river and stream sediments and were radiocarbon-dated to a period of rapid climate change during the last deglaciation (10.5 and 13.3Â cal kyr BP). Growth data from modern bur oaks were obtained from increment core collections paired with USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data collected across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes regions. For m...
... Steven L., Rose-Marie Muzika, Richard P. Guyette, and Michael C. Stambaugh. 2006. ... HISTORI... more ... Steven L., Rose-Marie Muzika, Richard P. Guyette, and Michael C. Stambaugh. 2006. ... HISTORICAL CO 2 GROWTH ENHANCEMENT DECLINES WITH AGE IN QUERCUS AND PINUS. Steven L. Voelker 1 , Rose-Marie Muzika, Richard P. Guyette, and Michael C. Stambaugh ...
Climate has a primary influence on the occurrence and rate of combustion in ecosystems with carbo... more Climate has a primary influence on the occurrence and rate of combustion in ecosystems with carbon-based fuels such as forests and grasslands. Society will be confronted with the effects of climate change on fire in future forests. There are, however, few quantitative appraisals of how climate will affect wildland fire in
the United States. We demonstrated a method for estimating changes in fire probability based on future climate simulations of temperature and precipitation. The probability of a fire
occurring in a particular climate was extracted from the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) and represented the rate of change in fire due to climate. Climate output data from two global climate models (GCMs) were applied to the PC2FM to estimate changes in fire probability. We calculated change in fire
frequency and probabilities from the difference between current and future climates and mapped climate-forced percentage change in fire probability under each GCM for the nation at a 1.2 km2 scale. Future fire probability estimates increased in cooler northern and high elevation regions but decreased slightly in some hotter and drier regions of the southwestern United States. Our approach’s greatest strength may be reliance on only climate data and the simple principles of physical chemistry; many other
nonclimatic factors that affect fire are often difficult to predict in the distant future.
For many regions of the Earth, anthropogenic climate change is expected to result in increasingly... more For many regions of the Earth, anthropogenic climate change is expected to result in increasingly divergent climate extremes. However, little is known about how increasing climate variance may affect ecosystem productivity. Forest ecosystems may be particularly susceptible to this problem considering the complex organizational structure of specialized species niche adaptations. Forest decline is often attributable to multiple stressors including prolonged heat, wildfire and insect outbreaks. These disturbances, often categorized as megadisturbances, can push temperate forests beyond sustainability thresholds. Absent from much of the contemporary forest health literature, however, is the discussion of excessive precipitation that may affect other disturbances synergistically or that might represent a principal stressor. Here, specific points of evidence are provided including historic climatology, variance predictions from global change modeling, Midwestern paleo climate data, local climate influences on net ecosystem exchange and productivity, and pathogen influences on oak mortality. Data sources reveal potential trends, deserving further investigation, indicating that the western edge of the Eastern Deciduous forest may be impacted by ongoing increased precipitation, precipitation variance and excessive wetness. Data presented, in conjunction with recent regional forest health concerns, suggest that climate variance including drought and excessive wetness should be equally considered for forest ecosystem resilience against increasingly dynamic climate. This communication serves as an alert to the need for studies on potential impacts of increasing climate variance and excessive wetness in forest ecosystem health and productivity in the Midwest US and similar forest ecosystems globally.
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the United States. We demonstrated a method for estimating changes in fire probability based on future climate simulations of temperature and precipitation. The probability of a fire
occurring in a particular climate was extracted from the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) and represented the rate of change in fire due to climate. Climate output data from two global climate models (GCMs) were applied to the PC2FM to estimate changes in fire probability. We calculated change in fire
frequency and probabilities from the difference between current and future climates and mapped climate-forced percentage change in fire probability under each GCM for the nation at a 1.2 km2 scale. Future fire probability estimates increased in cooler northern and high elevation regions but decreased slightly in some hotter and drier regions of the southwestern United States. Our approach’s greatest strength may be reliance on only climate data and the simple principles of physical chemistry; many other
nonclimatic factors that affect fire are often difficult to predict in the distant future.
the United States. We demonstrated a method for estimating changes in fire probability based on future climate simulations of temperature and precipitation. The probability of a fire
occurring in a particular climate was extracted from the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) and represented the rate of change in fire due to climate. Climate output data from two global climate models (GCMs) were applied to the PC2FM to estimate changes in fire probability. We calculated change in fire
frequency and probabilities from the difference between current and future climates and mapped climate-forced percentage change in fire probability under each GCM for the nation at a 1.2 km2 scale. Future fire probability estimates increased in cooler northern and high elevation regions but decreased slightly in some hotter and drier regions of the southwestern United States. Our approach’s greatest strength may be reliance on only climate data and the simple principles of physical chemistry; many other
nonclimatic factors that affect fire are often difficult to predict in the distant future.