Director, technical lead and international expert on climate adaptation and ecosystem-based issues. Working in the environmental sector for more than 40 years, I have wide-ranging experience of: • Evidence and policy development; • Policy, programme and technical monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment; • Systematic rapid evidence assessment; • Natural resource management, and; • Stakeholder involvement.
The concept of a ‘nexus’ across issues regarding the management of natural resources has gained i... more The concept of a ‘nexus’ across issues regarding the management of natural resources has gained increasing academic attention in recent years, but there is still relatively limited research on the application of the nexus approach for evaluating policies. This study analyses coherence among the main goals of five policy areas (water, energy, food, land, and climate) in Sweden, drawing upon a desk review, expert assessment, and interaction with stakeholders. The main objective is to enhance understanding of opportunities and challenges posed by such a nexus, understand policy interactions in Sweden, and provide insights into the use of policy coherence analysis as an integral part of resource nexus assessments. The analysis reveals synergies and conflicts between policy goals. For example, Sweden's environmental quality objectives (EQOs) regarding land and all the goals regarding water are either synergistic or neutral. Likewise, climate policy goals are well aligned with the goa...
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development gives equal emphasis to developed (“Northern”) countr... more The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development gives equal emphasis to developed (“Northern”) countries and developing (“Southern”) countries. Thus, implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) demands coherent collaboration to transform society across all countries. Yet, there has been little research published on SDG partnerships and this is the first study to explore the extent to which partners from Northern and Southern countries are involved in them and their focus. It identifies that involvement is unequally distributed and may perpetuate the North–South divide in countries’ resources, including access to data and scientific capacities. Most notably, partners from low-income countries are involved in far fewer partnerships than partners from countries in all other World Bank income categories, although the former are least able to develop sustainably. As such, all those promoting sustainable development from governmental, private and third-sector organisations need...
Phenology affects the abiotic and biotic conditions that an organism encounters and consequently ... more Phenology affects the abiotic and biotic conditions that an organism encounters and consequently its fitness. For populations of high latitude species, spring phenology often occurs earlier in warmer years and regions. Here we apply a novel approach to decompose spatiotemporal covariation between spring temperature and the phenology of two flowering plants, Cardamine pratensis and Alliara petiolata, and a Lepidopteran herbivore, Anthocharis cardamines, across the UK, into the contributions of plasticity and local adaptation. All three species overlap in the time-window over which mean temperatures best predict variation in phenology and we find little evidence that the position of time-windows varies latitudinally, as expected if they were initiated by day-length. The focal species show pronounced temperature-mediated phenological plasticity of similar magnitude. While we find no evidence for local adaptation in the flowering times of the plants, geographic variation in the phenology of the butterfly reveals countergradient local adaptation. Geographic variation in the butterfly's phenology appears to be more sensitive to variation in temperature than the flowering times of the host plants and we find no evidence that coevolution has generated geographic variation in adaptive phenological plasticity
Climate change adaptation principles for biodiversity have been formulated for conservation manag... more Climate change adaptation principles for biodiversity have been formulated for conservation managers (e.g. Mawdsley et al. 2009) and more generally (Smithers et al. 2008). However, anecdotal evidence suggests a lack of understanding of how to prioritize and target these principles may be inhibiting their implementation. We present a decision framework (Oliver et al. 2012) that is intended to promote integration of the principles into conservation planning. The framework considers species' exposure and sensitivity and current adaptive capacity to climate change in order to prioritize and target actions to increase their adaptive capacity. It reflects the consensus for prioritizing landscape-scale actions outlined in an official review of England's protected areas by Lawton et al. (2010), but with a slight change of emphasis for 'better, bigger, more, improve connectivity, translocate and ex-situ', rather than 'more, bigger, better, joined'. Hence, the framewor...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010
Phenotypic differences between populations often correlate with climate variables, resulting from... more Phenotypic differences between populations often correlate with climate variables, resulting from a combination of environment-induced plasticity and local adaptation. Species comprising populations that are genetically adapted to local climatic conditions should be more vulnerable to climate change than those comprising phenotypically plastic populations. Assessment of local adaptation generally requires logistically challenging experiments. Here, using a unique approach and a large dataset (>50,000 observations from across Britain), we compare the covariation in temperature and first spawning dates of the common frog ( Rana temporaria ) across space with that across time. We show that although all populations exhibit a plastic response to temperature, spawning earlier in warmer years, between-population differences in first spawning dates are dominated by local adaptation. Given climate change projections for Britain in 2050–2070, we project that for populations to remain as lo...
ABSTRACT The Woodland Trust, the UK's foremost woodland conservation organisation, is com... more ABSTRACT The Woodland Trust, the UK's foremost woodland conservation organisation, is committed to the conservation, enhancement and expansion of woodland, especially native woodland, and to increasing people’s awareness and enjoyment of it. The Trust owns over 1,100 woods and lobbies to seek better protection for woods and trees, especially ancient woodland and ancient trees. Increasingly intensive land use has led to unprecedented loss of these semi-natural habitats. Those sites that survive are fragmented and isolated, operating as islands. Species characteristic of ancient woodland have poor powers of dispersal. The rate of predicted climate change will place significant demands on species top move. Phenology is already revealing staggering trends in the temporal responses of species to temperature change. It is clear that without a major rethink in both economic and nature conservation policy our natural world could face catastrophic consequences in coming decades.
In his News Feature “Last stands” (8 December 2017, p. [1240][1]), E. Stokstad discusses the argu... more In his News Feature “Last stands” (8 December 2017, p. [1240][1]), E. Stokstad discusses the arguments between foresters and ecologists over how much logging to allow in Poland's Bialowieza Forest. This conflict is no longer only about environmental values and priorities, but also the broader
International concern to develop sustainably challenges us to act upon the inherent links between... more International concern to develop sustainably challenges us to act upon the inherent links between our economy, society and environment, and is leading to increasing acknowledgement of biodiversity’s importance. This Review discusses the breadth of ways in which biodiversity can support sustainable development. It uses the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a basis for exploring scientific evidence of the benefits delivered by biodiversity. It focuses on papers that provide examples of how biodiversity components (that is, ecosystems, species and genes) directly deliver benefits that may contribute to the achievement of individual SDGs. It also considers how biodiversity’s direct contributions to fulfilling some SDGs may indirectly support the achievement of other SDGs to which biodiversity does not contribute directly. How the attributes (for example, diversity, abundance or composition) of biodiversity components influence the benefits delivered is also presented, where described by the papers reviewed. While acknowledging potential negative impacts and trade-offs between different benefits, the study concludes that biodiversity may contribute to fulfilment of all SDGs.Sustainability is a function of environmental, economic and social integration. This Review synthesizes knowledge on the many ways biodiversity can support sustainable development.
Birdwatching is one of the fastest growing subsectors of ecotourism, and can contribute substanti... more Birdwatching is one of the fastest growing subsectors of ecotourism, and can contribute substantial income to the local economy in areas with high bird diversity. The Białowieża Forest (BF) is one of the most popular places to watch birds in Europe and is visited by thousands of birdwatchers every year. They are attracted by its particularly high diversity of bird species, many associated with the BF’s old-growth characteristics, including sizable populations of almost all European woodpeckers. These species are threatened by logging activities that are being undertaken on the assumption that forestry is important for the local economy. Our aim was to compare the revenue from birdwatchers with the revenue from other tourists visiting the BF to counter the economic justification for logging. Based on 165 responses to a structured questionnaire, our results show that one birdwatcher spends USD 64.6 per day on average, compared to USD 38.6 per day by other visitors to the BF. Birdwatchers also stay in the BF longer than other tourists (3.8 and 2.5 days on average, respectively). The total estimated local expenditure of approximately 14,000 birdwatchers in 2016 is almost USD 2.2 million. In contrast, since 2005, forest management and the sale of wood from the BF has led to economic losses each year, which we suggest would be further exacerbated by the impact of continued logging on birds and resultant inevitable decline in income from avitourism.
Increasing urbanisation poses numerous challenges to human quality of life. Cities are particular... more Increasing urbanisation poses numerous challenges to human quality of life. Cities are particularly vulnerable to the urban heat-island effect, which will be amplified by climate change. Increasing tree cover may be one of the most cost-effective ways of moderating urban temperatures. Trees cool their surroundings by casting shade, reflecting solar radiation, transpiring, and intercepting rainfall that subsequently evaporates. However, the potential of trees to reduce the urban heat-island effect is underutilised. The aim of this study was to synthesise understanding of the relative abilities of different tree species to provide urban cooling in temperate regions of the world and thereby develop a pragmatic approach for choosing those trees that have greatest potential in that regard. Based on a literature review and semi-structured interviews with leading experts, we developed a series of scenarios to illustrate the impacts of a tree’s cooling mechanisms and tree species’ attributes on components of the surface-energy balance equation. This enabled us to select parameters and propose simple equations that can be used to compare the relative abilities of tree species in relation to each of the cooling mechanisms. The parameters selected were for: transpiration – crown diameter, Leaf Area Index (LAI), canopy aspect ratio, and stomatal conductance or growth rate; reflection – albedo, crown diameter and LAI; shading – canopy aspect ratio, crown diameter, LAI and tree height. The approach is intended for use by urban planners and managers who wish to make informed decisions about which tree species to select for planting to counter the urban heat-island effect.
The concept of a ‘nexus’ across issues regarding the management of natural resources has gained i... more The concept of a ‘nexus’ across issues regarding the management of natural resources has gained increasing academic attention in recent years, but there is still relatively limited research on the application of the nexus approach for evaluating policies. This study analyses coherence among the main goals of five policy areas (water, energy, food, land, and climate) in Sweden, drawing upon a desk review, expert assessment, and interaction with stakeholders. The main objective is to enhance understanding of opportunities and challenges posed by such a nexus, understand policy interactions in Sweden, and provide insights into the use of policy coherence analysis as an integral part of resource nexus assessments. The analysis reveals synergies and conflicts between policy goals. For example, Sweden's environmental quality objectives (EQOs) regarding land and all the goals regarding water are either synergistic or neutral. Likewise, climate policy goals are well aligned with the goa...
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development gives equal emphasis to developed (“Northern”) countr... more The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development gives equal emphasis to developed (“Northern”) countries and developing (“Southern”) countries. Thus, implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) demands coherent collaboration to transform society across all countries. Yet, there has been little research published on SDG partnerships and this is the first study to explore the extent to which partners from Northern and Southern countries are involved in them and their focus. It identifies that involvement is unequally distributed and may perpetuate the North–South divide in countries’ resources, including access to data and scientific capacities. Most notably, partners from low-income countries are involved in far fewer partnerships than partners from countries in all other World Bank income categories, although the former are least able to develop sustainably. As such, all those promoting sustainable development from governmental, private and third-sector organisations need...
Phenology affects the abiotic and biotic conditions that an organism encounters and consequently ... more Phenology affects the abiotic and biotic conditions that an organism encounters and consequently its fitness. For populations of high latitude species, spring phenology often occurs earlier in warmer years and regions. Here we apply a novel approach to decompose spatiotemporal covariation between spring temperature and the phenology of two flowering plants, Cardamine pratensis and Alliara petiolata, and a Lepidopteran herbivore, Anthocharis cardamines, across the UK, into the contributions of plasticity and local adaptation. All three species overlap in the time-window over which mean temperatures best predict variation in phenology and we find little evidence that the position of time-windows varies latitudinally, as expected if they were initiated by day-length. The focal species show pronounced temperature-mediated phenological plasticity of similar magnitude. While we find no evidence for local adaptation in the flowering times of the plants, geographic variation in the phenology of the butterfly reveals countergradient local adaptation. Geographic variation in the butterfly's phenology appears to be more sensitive to variation in temperature than the flowering times of the host plants and we find no evidence that coevolution has generated geographic variation in adaptive phenological plasticity
Climate change adaptation principles for biodiversity have been formulated for conservation manag... more Climate change adaptation principles for biodiversity have been formulated for conservation managers (e.g. Mawdsley et al. 2009) and more generally (Smithers et al. 2008). However, anecdotal evidence suggests a lack of understanding of how to prioritize and target these principles may be inhibiting their implementation. We present a decision framework (Oliver et al. 2012) that is intended to promote integration of the principles into conservation planning. The framework considers species' exposure and sensitivity and current adaptive capacity to climate change in order to prioritize and target actions to increase their adaptive capacity. It reflects the consensus for prioritizing landscape-scale actions outlined in an official review of England's protected areas by Lawton et al. (2010), but with a slight change of emphasis for 'better, bigger, more, improve connectivity, translocate and ex-situ', rather than 'more, bigger, better, joined'. Hence, the framewor...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010
Phenotypic differences between populations often correlate with climate variables, resulting from... more Phenotypic differences between populations often correlate with climate variables, resulting from a combination of environment-induced plasticity and local adaptation. Species comprising populations that are genetically adapted to local climatic conditions should be more vulnerable to climate change than those comprising phenotypically plastic populations. Assessment of local adaptation generally requires logistically challenging experiments. Here, using a unique approach and a large dataset (>50,000 observations from across Britain), we compare the covariation in temperature and first spawning dates of the common frog ( Rana temporaria ) across space with that across time. We show that although all populations exhibit a plastic response to temperature, spawning earlier in warmer years, between-population differences in first spawning dates are dominated by local adaptation. Given climate change projections for Britain in 2050–2070, we project that for populations to remain as lo...
ABSTRACT The Woodland Trust, the UK's foremost woodland conservation organisation, is com... more ABSTRACT The Woodland Trust, the UK's foremost woodland conservation organisation, is committed to the conservation, enhancement and expansion of woodland, especially native woodland, and to increasing people’s awareness and enjoyment of it. The Trust owns over 1,100 woods and lobbies to seek better protection for woods and trees, especially ancient woodland and ancient trees. Increasingly intensive land use has led to unprecedented loss of these semi-natural habitats. Those sites that survive are fragmented and isolated, operating as islands. Species characteristic of ancient woodland have poor powers of dispersal. The rate of predicted climate change will place significant demands on species top move. Phenology is already revealing staggering trends in the temporal responses of species to temperature change. It is clear that without a major rethink in both economic and nature conservation policy our natural world could face catastrophic consequences in coming decades.
In his News Feature “Last stands” (8 December 2017, p. [1240][1]), E. Stokstad discusses the argu... more In his News Feature “Last stands” (8 December 2017, p. [1240][1]), E. Stokstad discusses the arguments between foresters and ecologists over how much logging to allow in Poland's Bialowieza Forest. This conflict is no longer only about environmental values and priorities, but also the broader
International concern to develop sustainably challenges us to act upon the inherent links between... more International concern to develop sustainably challenges us to act upon the inherent links between our economy, society and environment, and is leading to increasing acknowledgement of biodiversity’s importance. This Review discusses the breadth of ways in which biodiversity can support sustainable development. It uses the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a basis for exploring scientific evidence of the benefits delivered by biodiversity. It focuses on papers that provide examples of how biodiversity components (that is, ecosystems, species and genes) directly deliver benefits that may contribute to the achievement of individual SDGs. It also considers how biodiversity’s direct contributions to fulfilling some SDGs may indirectly support the achievement of other SDGs to which biodiversity does not contribute directly. How the attributes (for example, diversity, abundance or composition) of biodiversity components influence the benefits delivered is also presented, where described by the papers reviewed. While acknowledging potential negative impacts and trade-offs between different benefits, the study concludes that biodiversity may contribute to fulfilment of all SDGs.Sustainability is a function of environmental, economic and social integration. This Review synthesizes knowledge on the many ways biodiversity can support sustainable development.
Birdwatching is one of the fastest growing subsectors of ecotourism, and can contribute substanti... more Birdwatching is one of the fastest growing subsectors of ecotourism, and can contribute substantial income to the local economy in areas with high bird diversity. The Białowieża Forest (BF) is one of the most popular places to watch birds in Europe and is visited by thousands of birdwatchers every year. They are attracted by its particularly high diversity of bird species, many associated with the BF’s old-growth characteristics, including sizable populations of almost all European woodpeckers. These species are threatened by logging activities that are being undertaken on the assumption that forestry is important for the local economy. Our aim was to compare the revenue from birdwatchers with the revenue from other tourists visiting the BF to counter the economic justification for logging. Based on 165 responses to a structured questionnaire, our results show that one birdwatcher spends USD 64.6 per day on average, compared to USD 38.6 per day by other visitors to the BF. Birdwatchers also stay in the BF longer than other tourists (3.8 and 2.5 days on average, respectively). The total estimated local expenditure of approximately 14,000 birdwatchers in 2016 is almost USD 2.2 million. In contrast, since 2005, forest management and the sale of wood from the BF has led to economic losses each year, which we suggest would be further exacerbated by the impact of continued logging on birds and resultant inevitable decline in income from avitourism.
Increasing urbanisation poses numerous challenges to human quality of life. Cities are particular... more Increasing urbanisation poses numerous challenges to human quality of life. Cities are particularly vulnerable to the urban heat-island effect, which will be amplified by climate change. Increasing tree cover may be one of the most cost-effective ways of moderating urban temperatures. Trees cool their surroundings by casting shade, reflecting solar radiation, transpiring, and intercepting rainfall that subsequently evaporates. However, the potential of trees to reduce the urban heat-island effect is underutilised. The aim of this study was to synthesise understanding of the relative abilities of different tree species to provide urban cooling in temperate regions of the world and thereby develop a pragmatic approach for choosing those trees that have greatest potential in that regard. Based on a literature review and semi-structured interviews with leading experts, we developed a series of scenarios to illustrate the impacts of a tree’s cooling mechanisms and tree species’ attributes on components of the surface-energy balance equation. This enabled us to select parameters and propose simple equations that can be used to compare the relative abilities of tree species in relation to each of the cooling mechanisms. The parameters selected were for: transpiration – crown diameter, Leaf Area Index (LAI), canopy aspect ratio, and stomatal conductance or growth rate; reflection – albedo, crown diameter and LAI; shading – canopy aspect ratio, crown diameter, LAI and tree height. The approach is intended for use by urban planners and managers who wish to make informed decisions about which tree species to select for planting to counter the urban heat-island effect.
Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of ... more Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.
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Papers by Richard J Smithers