Decades of academic discussion on social resilience have led to the development of indicators, in... more Decades of academic discussion on social resilience have led to the development of indicators, indexes, and different approaches to assessing it at national and local levels. The need to show real-world applications of such assessments is evident since resilience became a political and disaster risk reduction governance component. This article gives a full description of the methodology used to develop SoResilere, a new social resilience index applied to flood disaster-affected Portuguese municipalities. Study cases were selected according to historical databases, academic sources and governmental entities. Statistical methods for data dimension reduction, such as Factor Analysis (through Principal Component Analysis), were applied to the quantitative data and Optimal Scaling to the categorical data. SoResilere results were analyzed. Since SoResilere is a new tool, component weighting was applied to compare results with no weighting, although it did not affect the SoResilere status ...
Soils in the Mediterranean regions of Europe are often vulnerable to soil erosion, due to a combi... more Soils in the Mediterranean regions of Europe are often vulnerable to soil erosion, due to a combination of annual plant cover cycles, centuries of human use, the concentration of rainstorms in a short period of the year, and other factors. Climate change could bring about a warmer and drier climate, limiting vegetation growth while bringing heavier storms during winter. This could eventually lead to higher risks of soil losses and the consequential problems of land degradation and desertification. Project ERLAND, which began in 2009, is assessing these risks for two Mediterranean research catchments in Portugal, with four main goals: (i) collect data to understand hydrological and erosion processes in representative catchments; (ii) use this data to parameterize the SWAT eco-hydrological and erosion model as accurately as possible; (iii) use future socio-economic scenarios to estimate both impacts on climate change and on future land-use practices; and (iv) apply the SWAT model for ...
The Science of the total environment, Jan 15, 2017
The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including sup... more The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P ...
Portugal has undergone significant afforestation since the early 1900s, primarily via planting of... more Portugal has undergone significant afforestation since the early 1900s, primarily via planting of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus. These tree species are both potentially heavy water consumers, however the hydrologic impacts of this land-cover change in many areas of the country is not well understood. To contribute to a better understanding of these potential impacts, this study examines long-term streamflow and meteorological data from the Águeda watershed, located within the humid Mediterranean climate zone of North-Central Portugal. Over both the entire available data record (1935 to 2010), as well as within sub-record periods; statistically significant trends in precipitation and streamflow (in terms of quantity, yield, and baseflow) were found. Notable findings include the distinct differences in the hydrologic impacts of pine and eucalypt afforestation, and the lack of large overall reductions in streamflow quantity, despite the large scale afforestation wh...
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2014
The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus... more The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus since the early 1900s; however, the long-term hydrologic impacts of this land cover change are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 7 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936 to 2010. Meteorological and hydrological records were analysed using a combined Thiel–Sen/Mann–Kendall trend testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there had been no significant reduction in streamflow yield over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which had taken place. This lack of change is attributed to both the characteristics of the watershed and the na...
This work defines a national flood susceptibility index for the Portuguese continental territory,... more This work defines a national flood susceptibility index for the Portuguese continental territory, by proposing the aggregation of different variables which represent natural conditions for permeability, runoff and accumulation. This index is part of the national vulnerability index developed in the scope of Flood Maps in Climate Change Scenarios (CIRAC) project, supported by the Portuguese Association of Insurers (APS).
This approach expands on previous works by trying to bridge the gap between different floods mechanisms (e.g. progressive and flash floods) occurring at different spatial scales in the Portuguese territory through: (a) selecting homogeneously processed datasets, (b) aggregating their values to better translate the spatially continuous and cumulative influence in floods at multiple spatial scales.
Results show a good ability to capture, in the higher susceptibility classes, different flood types: progressive floods and flash floods. Lower values are usually related to: mountainous areas, low water accumulation potential and more permeable soils. Validation with independent flood datasets confirmed these index characteristics, although some overestimation can be seen in the southern region of Alentejo where, due to a dense hydrographic network and an overall low slope, floods are not as frequent as a result of lower precipitation mean values.
Future work will focus on: (i) including extreme precipitation datasets to represent the triggering factor, (ii) improving representation of smaller and stepper basins, (iii) optimizing variable weight definition process, (iii) developing more robust independent flood validation datasets.
Decades of academic discussion on social resilience have led to the development of indicators, in... more Decades of academic discussion on social resilience have led to the development of indicators, indexes, and different approaches to assessing it at national and local levels. The need to show real-world applications of such assessments is evident since resilience became a political and disaster risk reduction governance component. This article gives a full description of the methodology used to develop SoResilere, a new social resilience index applied to flood disaster-affected Portuguese municipalities. Study cases were selected according to historical databases, academic sources and governmental entities. Statistical methods for data dimension reduction, such as Factor Analysis (through Principal Component Analysis), were applied to the quantitative data and Optimal Scaling to the categorical data. SoResilere results were analyzed. Since SoResilere is a new tool, component weighting was applied to compare results with no weighting, although it did not affect the SoResilere status ...
Soils in the Mediterranean regions of Europe are often vulnerable to soil erosion, due to a combi... more Soils in the Mediterranean regions of Europe are often vulnerable to soil erosion, due to a combination of annual plant cover cycles, centuries of human use, the concentration of rainstorms in a short period of the year, and other factors. Climate change could bring about a warmer and drier climate, limiting vegetation growth while bringing heavier storms during winter. This could eventually lead to higher risks of soil losses and the consequential problems of land degradation and desertification. Project ERLAND, which began in 2009, is assessing these risks for two Mediterranean research catchments in Portugal, with four main goals: (i) collect data to understand hydrological and erosion processes in representative catchments; (ii) use this data to parameterize the SWAT eco-hydrological and erosion model as accurately as possible; (iii) use future socio-economic scenarios to estimate both impacts on climate change and on future land-use practices; and (iv) apply the SWAT model for ...
The Science of the total environment, Jan 15, 2017
The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including sup... more The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P ...
Portugal has undergone significant afforestation since the early 1900s, primarily via planting of... more Portugal has undergone significant afforestation since the early 1900s, primarily via planting of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus. These tree species are both potentially heavy water consumers, however the hydrologic impacts of this land-cover change in many areas of the country is not well understood. To contribute to a better understanding of these potential impacts, this study examines long-term streamflow and meteorological data from the Águeda watershed, located within the humid Mediterranean climate zone of North-Central Portugal. Over both the entire available data record (1935 to 2010), as well as within sub-record periods; statistically significant trends in precipitation and streamflow (in terms of quantity, yield, and baseflow) were found. Notable findings include the distinct differences in the hydrologic impacts of pine and eucalypt afforestation, and the lack of large overall reductions in streamflow quantity, despite the large scale afforestation wh...
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2014
The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus... more The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus since the early 1900s; however, the long-term hydrologic impacts of this land cover change are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 7 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936 to 2010. Meteorological and hydrological records were analysed using a combined Thiel–Sen/Mann–Kendall trend testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there had been no significant reduction in streamflow yield over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which had taken place. This lack of change is attributed to both the characteristics of the watershed and the na...
This work defines a national flood susceptibility index for the Portuguese continental territory,... more This work defines a national flood susceptibility index for the Portuguese continental territory, by proposing the aggregation of different variables which represent natural conditions for permeability, runoff and accumulation. This index is part of the national vulnerability index developed in the scope of Flood Maps in Climate Change Scenarios (CIRAC) project, supported by the Portuguese Association of Insurers (APS).
This approach expands on previous works by trying to bridge the gap between different floods mechanisms (e.g. progressive and flash floods) occurring at different spatial scales in the Portuguese territory through: (a) selecting homogeneously processed datasets, (b) aggregating their values to better translate the spatially continuous and cumulative influence in floods at multiple spatial scales.
Results show a good ability to capture, in the higher susceptibility classes, different flood types: progressive floods and flash floods. Lower values are usually related to: mountainous areas, low water accumulation potential and more permeable soils. Validation with independent flood datasets confirmed these index characteristics, although some overestimation can be seen in the southern region of Alentejo where, due to a dense hydrographic network and an overall low slope, floods are not as frequent as a result of lower precipitation mean values.
Future work will focus on: (i) including extreme precipitation datasets to represent the triggering factor, (ii) improving representation of smaller and stepper basins, (iii) optimizing variable weight definition process, (iii) developing more robust independent flood validation datasets.
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This approach expands on previous works by trying to bridge the gap between different floods mechanisms (e.g. progressive and flash floods) occurring at different spatial scales in the Portuguese territory through: (a) selecting homogeneously processed datasets, (b) aggregating their values to better translate the spatially continuous and cumulative influence in floods at multiple spatial scales.
Results show a good ability to capture, in the higher susceptibility classes, different flood types: progressive floods and flash floods. Lower values are usually related to: mountainous areas, low water accumulation potential and more permeable soils. Validation with independent flood datasets confirmed these index characteristics, although some overestimation can be seen in the southern region of Alentejo where, due to a dense hydrographic network and an overall low slope, floods are not as frequent as a result of lower precipitation mean values.
Future work will focus on: (i) including extreme precipitation datasets to represent the triggering factor, (ii) improving representation of smaller and stepper basins, (iii) optimizing variable weight definition process, (iii) developing more robust independent flood validation datasets.
This approach expands on previous works by trying to bridge the gap between different floods mechanisms (e.g. progressive and flash floods) occurring at different spatial scales in the Portuguese territory through: (a) selecting homogeneously processed datasets, (b) aggregating their values to better translate the spatially continuous and cumulative influence in floods at multiple spatial scales.
Results show a good ability to capture, in the higher susceptibility classes, different flood types: progressive floods and flash floods. Lower values are usually related to: mountainous areas, low water accumulation potential and more permeable soils. Validation with independent flood datasets confirmed these index characteristics, although some overestimation can be seen in the southern region of Alentejo where, due to a dense hydrographic network and an overall low slope, floods are not as frequent as a result of lower precipitation mean values.
Future work will focus on: (i) including extreme precipitation datasets to represent the triggering factor, (ii) improving representation of smaller and stepper basins, (iii) optimizing variable weight definition process, (iii) developing more robust independent flood validation datasets.