Sergey Shvarev

Application of modern statistical methods (LDA) for landslide susceptibility assessment is discussed. A computer model was created to forecast if an area falls into the category of potentially landslidehazardous. The model is based on the landslides inventory carried out earlier by one of the authors in the vicinity of the Krasnaya Polyana settlement (Russia, Krasnodarskiy Krai). The sites with the highest landslide susceptibility were identified, and the landslide-prone objects and buildings were revealed. By 2018, a lot of factual data on landslide formation has been accumulated for a number of relatively small areas around the world. There are many examples of the elaboration of mathematical models explaining the spatial patterns of landslides. The most common errors during the construction of such models are characterized. It is also shown that, at least in English-language publications, there are no examples of statistical probabilistic modeling of the landslide hazard in the t...

A map of naturally determined intensity of geomorphologic processes scale 1:8 million on the territory of the Russian Far East was done. The geomorphologic processes intensity is the readiness of geomorphologic system to pull out of the balanced condition and danger of catastrophic processes developing under the action of external and/or internal forces. Highlighted areas with different potential intensity of geomorphologic processes, the value of which in the region ranges from 3 to 16 conventional points and depends on the degree of ecology-geomorphologic hazard modern relief processes, depth of relief dissection, seismicity, precipitation, availability of loose thick permafrost. Study results confirmed the formerly stated supposition about increasing of nature-defined intensity of endogenous and exogenous processes of the North-Western Pacific Ocean coast area from West to East. Thus, potential processes intensity of the Western Okhotsk Sea coast area was estimated in 7-10 condit...

The recent tectonic structure and fault activity of the Marckhotsky Ridge district were established on the basis of detailed geological and geomorphologic investigation with the use of remote sensing and field "trenching" data. The aim of researches had been the engineering defence of the new tunnel. The structural pattern of this region includes lengthwise and transversal faults, forming block-stepped morphostructure with the segments of structural-lithologic crests which are sunk along lengthwise and shifted along transversal faults. Recent fault activity manifests itself both in specific set of exogenous processes and in the structure of cover deposits in the fault's zones. N-E tectonic com-pression forming overturned and overthrust folds in the Paleocene-Eocene later turned into tension and normal fault system which are active till now. The velocity of recent tectonic movements reachs up to 1-1.5 mm/year, according to the surface deposits data.

Earthquake-induced deformations located near Murmansk City were investigated for information on the age, tectonic position and spatial occurrence of paleo-earthquakes. The main earthquake-generating zone is identified to be the system of strike slip faults and reverse-oblique faults trending NNW along the Kola River valley. We used radiocarbon analysis and paleogeographic reconstructions and revealed three episodes of increased seismic activity: from 9500 to 10500 cal BP, from 892 to 1182 cal BP, and from 200 to 300 cal BP. Based on the peak ground velocity estimation method we suggest that an earthquakes with a maximum moment magnitude up to Mw ≈ 6.0–6.5 may have taken place in the studied area. The recorded location of seismogenic deformation near faults indicates area of strong Late Glacial and Holocene earthquakes occurring in the northern Kola Peninsula; this is also consistent with observations concerning the historical events of 1772 and 1873, which took place near the area.C...

We provide a GIS data inventory of confirmed and proposed glacially-induced faults. Stresses, perturbated as a response to the advance and retreat of continental ice sheets and glaciers, can reactivate pre-existing faults. Previously referred to as "PostGlacial Faults" (PGFs), these faults are now called "Glacially-Induced Faults" (GIFs). More than a dozen kilometre-long and several metre-high fault-scarps have been identified in northern Fennoscandia since extensive investigations started in the 1960s and 1970s. Similar faults, but by far not of such dimensions, have also been described in eastern Canada. In other formerly glaciated areas in Europe, e.g., the southern parts of Sweden, Norway and Finland, the southern Baltic Sea, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, and the Baltic countries, GIFs have rarely been observed and discussed in the literature. However, the number of studies with reliable field evidence for proposing such faults has increased considera...

<p>Landslides are an important component in the formation of the slope sediment flux of the sediment discharges of mountain rivers. In this regard, assessing the likelihood of their formation is an important task. The territory of the Russian ski resort Krasnaya Polyana (the Mzymta River basin) is subject to active landslide processes, including due to increased anthropogenic activity during the preparations for the 2014 Winter Olympics. The resort continues to develop actively after the Winter Olympics. The construction of new facilities continues recently including on potentially landslide slopes. When designing objects, the engineering and geological substantiation of the project is carried out. However, modeling of the landslide risk is not performed at all. We undertaken such a simulation on an area of ​​1,500 square kilometers, including the villages of Krasnaya Polyana and Estosadok and the resort of Rosa Khutor. The study area covers the Mzymta River Valley, the Laura River and their small tributaries, as well as the slopes of the Aibga and Psekhako Ranges. For forecasting, we used the landslide distribution scheme (part of the geomorphological map of the territory with landslide destruction walls) created by one of the co-authors in 2008. Various “classic” morphometric variables (calculated by SAGA GIS) were applied for prediction. In total, 66 different variables were used, both standard for such forecasting (bias, aspect, flow accumulation), and less commonly used (topographic openness, etc. ). In addition, the spectral characteristics of the terrain were used: the result of DEM decomposition into a two-dimensional Fourier series on a moving window. These variables characterize the topographic pattern within a sliding window of different sizes minus the linear trend of elevation. The prediction of the danger of a landslide was made for three variants: only by “classical” variables, only by spectral variables and by all variables combined. Due to the small amount of input data, the accuracy of the obtained models was estimated by cross-checking without dividing the data into training and test samples. The final accuracy in the first case was 64%, in the second case - 69%, in the third case - 73%. The spectral characteristics of the terrain can enhance the predicted potential of landslide susceptibility models using DEM.</p><p>This study was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 19-17-00181.</p>

The series of postglacial terraces surround the Lake Imandra. Terraces of relative height 3-11 m are built up with one strstum of limnoglacial deposits of Late Quaternary age. The sediment texture is characterised by cross-bedding, flexures and synclinal folds. Accumulation was influenced by tectonic movements, wich were manifested in the inclination of terraces surface, and in splitting of initial surface in several levels. Terraces with relative height 0-3 m were built up with Holocene lacustrine deposits. Two stages of Holocene accumulation took place under the conditions of low tectonic activity. At one stage high socle terrace thin stratum of lacustrine sediment was formed; at another - low accumulative terrace with horizontal lamination of deposits. Morphotectonics of Lake Imandra basin gives an evidence of direct reflection of neotectonic structure in the relief. Relative movements of small blocks come to first meters, while the whole amplitude of post-glacial movements in th...

Исследования проводились в пределах южного клинообразного выступа Сибирской платформы, иначе именуемого Иркутским амфитеатром. При выделении активных геологических структур, помимо дешифрирования данных дистанционного зондирования, проанализирован обширный массив картографической и геолого-геофизической информации, проведены структурно-геоморфологическое картирование, анализ глубинного строения, геофизических полей, истории геологического развития и сейсмичности. В процессе полевых исследований в зонах разломов установлены деформации молодых отложений и форм рельефа различной интенсивности. Геологическими методами выделены структуры, контролирующие распределение сильных землетрясений, реальность которых для этой части платформы установлена по комплексу геолого-геофизических данных.

The recent tectonic structure and fault activity of the Marckhotsky Ridge district were established on the basis of detailed geological and geomorphologic investigation with the use of remote sensing and field "trenching" data. The aim of researches had been the engineering defence of the new tunnel. The structural pattern of this region includes lengthwise and transversal faults, forming block-stepped morphostructure with the segments of structural-lithologic crests which are sunk along lengthwise and shifted along transversal faults. Recent fault activity manifests itself both in specific set of exogenous processes and the structure of cover deposits in the fault's zones. N-E tectonic compression forming overturned and overthrust folds in the Paleocene-Eocene later turned into tension and normal fault system which are active till now. The velocity of recent tectonic movements reaches up to 1-1,5 mm/year, according to the surface deposits data.

A map of dew-to-natural “tensity” of geomorphological processes in the scale 1 : 8000 000 on the territory of the Russian Far East was compiled. The “tensity” is the readiness of geomorphological system to come out of the equilibrium state and risk of the catastrophic processes rise under the action of external and/or internal forces. Zones with different tensity of geomorphological processes were distinguished; the tensity value ranges from 3 to 16 balls in the region and depends on the degree of ecologic hazard of contemporary geomorphological processes, depth of dissection, seismicity, precipitation, and presence of thick loose permafrost. The early stated supposition about increasing of the nature-defined tensity of geomorphological processes in the North-Western Pacific Ocean coast area from West to East was confirmed. Thus, processes tensity of the Western Okhotsk Sea coast was estimated at 7–10 points, in the Sakhalin – 10–12, in the Eastern Kamchatka – 13–15, and in some Kur...

The structure of flood-plain alluvial deposits in one of the river valleys in the south-eastern part of Western Siberia represents numerous forms of wave-type and flexural deformations and liquefaction (intralayer foldings). The river valley corresponds to fault identified on remote images and extended 150 km in north-eastern direction. These deformations indicate the Middle or Late Holocene earthquake, which causes local displacements of flood-plain surface.

Territorial resources of the New Moscow were analyzed in the aspect of geomorphological conditions. Analysis of the exogenous processes and anthropogenic transformation on the territory of the New Moscow shows that almost 1/5 of it involves certain difficulties for further development: the elimination of natural hazards and adaptation of the existing man-made infrastructure to new tasks are necessary. The main relief features, quantitative data on the exogenic processes, and the degree of anthropogenic transformation on the territory of New Moscow are described. The semi-quantitative models of the territory were created using the geographically-distributed database of geological-geomorphological conditions. The models include three aspects of the territory evaluation: the cultural-aesthetic, the geoecological and the geotechnical ones. In the conclusion the authors state the necessity to found the integrated assessment for rational use of the new territories on the cultural and aesth...

Continental marginal mountains, including the mountain belts of Russian Far East, are characterized by supreme terrain contrast, mosaic structure of surface and crust, and rich complex of modern endogenous processes – volcanism, seismicity, and vertical movements. Unstable state of geomorphological systems and activity of relief forming processes here is caused also by deep dissected topography and the type and amount of precipitation. Human activities further stimulate natural processes and increase the risk of local disasters. So these territories have high intensity (or tension) of geomorphological processes. Intensity in the authors' understanding is willingness of geomorphological system to be out of balance, risk of disaster under external and internal agent, both natural and human. Mapping with quantitative accounting of intensity of natural and human potential impact is necessary for indication the areal distribution trends of geomorphological processes intensity and zon...

Представлены результаты детальных палеосейсмогеологических исследований на ключевом участке в бортовой зоне впадины озера Имандра, расположенном в юго-западной части Кольского региона (СВ Фенноскандинавского кристаллического щита). Изучение различных групп палеосейсмодеформаций, развитых в зоне унаследованного разлома, производилось с применением новых методов и подходов, что позволило установить во многих местах расколы и смещения в кристаллических породах, выяснить сейсмический генезис деформаций, дать количественные оценки нарушений и породивших их сейсмических импульсов, а также наметить направления смещения блоков при импульсных воздействиях на скальное основание. Возраст позднего события определен по радиоуглеродным датировкам торфа. Собранные данные позволили выделить элемент крупной сейсмотектонической зоны, активизация которой имела место в конце позднеледниковья и продолжалась в голоцене. Изученное разрывное нарушение классифицируется как одно из наиболее выразительных сре...