To validate the Whooley questions as a screening tool for depression amongst a population of olde... more To validate the Whooley questions as a screening tool for depression amongst a population of older adults in UK primary care. To assess the diagnostic performance of the Whooley questions as a screening tool for depression amongst older adults in UK primary care. A cross-sectional validation study was conducted with 766 patients aged ≥75 from UK primary care, recruited via 17 general practices based in the North of England during the pilot phase of a randomized controlled trial. Sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios comparing the index test (two Whooley questions) with a diagnosis of major depressive disorder (MDD) ascertained by the reference standard Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). The two screening questions had a sensitivity of 94.3% (95% confidence interval, 80.8-99.3%) and specificity of 62.7% (95% confidence interval, 59.0-66.2%). The likelihood ratio for a positive test was 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 2.2-2.9) and the likelihood ratio for a negative test was 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.35). The two Whooley questions missed few cases of depression. However, they were responsible for a high rate of false positives. This creates additional burden on general practitioners, to conduct more detailed investigation on patients who screen positive, but many of whom turn out not to have MDD.
The Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) incentivises general practices in England to provide pro... more The Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) incentivises general practices in England to provide proactive care for people with serious mental illness (SMI) including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and other psychoses. Better proactive primary care may reduce the risk of psychiatric admissions to hospital, but this has never been tested empirically. The QOF data set included 8234 general practices in England from 2006/2007 to 2010/2011. Rates of hospital admissions with primary diagnoses of SMI or bipolar disorder were estimated from national routine hospital data and aggregated to practice level. Poisson regression was used to analyse associations. Practices with higher achievement on the annual review for SMI patients (MH9), or that performed better on either of the two lithium indicators for bipolar patients (MH4 or MH5), had more psychiatric admissions. An additional 1% in achievement rates for MH9 was associated with an average increase in the annual practice admission rate of 0....
Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 2007
To establish the role and value of written information available to patients about individual med... more To establish the role and value of written information available to patients about individual medicines from the perspective of patients, carers and professionals. To determine how effective this information is in improving patients' knowledge and understanding of treatment and health outcomes. Electronic databases searched to late 2004, experts in information design, and stakeholder workshops (including patients and patient organisations). Data from selected studies were tabulated and the results were qualitatively synthesised along with findings from the information design and stakeholder workshop strands. Most people do not value the written information they receive. They had concerns about the use of complex language and poor visual presentation and in most cases the research showed that the information did not increase knowledge. The research showed that patients valued written information that was tailored to their individual circumstances and illness, and that contained a...
Journal of substance abuse treatment, Jan 12, 2015
Depressed mood often co-exists with frequent drug and alcohol use. This trial examined the feasib... more Depressed mood often co-exists with frequent drug and alcohol use. This trial examined the feasibility of screening, recruitment, randomization and engagement of drug and alcohol users in psychological interventions for depression symptoms. A total of 50 patients involved in community drugs and alcohol treatment (CDAT) were randomly allocated to behavioral activation delivered by psychological therapists (n=23) or to cognitive behavioral therapy based self-help introduced by CDAT workers (n=27). We examined recruitment and engagement rates, as well as changes in depression (PHQ-9) symptoms and changes in percent days abstinent (PDA within last month) at 24weeks follow-up. The ratio of screened to recruited participants was 4 to 1, and the randomization schedule successfully generated 2 groups with comparable characteristics. Follow-up was possible with 78% of participants post-treatment. Overall engagement in psychological interventions was low; only 42% of randomized participants a...
To assess the effectiveness of self-management support interventions in men with long-term condit... more To assess the effectiveness of self-management support interventions in men with long-term conditions. A quantitative systematic review with meta-analysis. The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was searched to identify published reviews of self-management support interventions. Relevant reviews were screened to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of self-management support interventions conducted in men alone, or which analysed the effects of interventions by sex. Data on relevant outcomes, patient populations, intervention type and study quality were extracted. Quality appraisal was conducted using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Meta-analysis was conducted to compare the effects of interventions in men, women, and mixed-sex sub-groups. 40 RCTs of self-management support interventions in men, and 20 eligible RCTs where an analysis by sex was reported, were included in the review. Meta-analysis suggested that physical activity, education, and peer support-based interv...
There is a high prevalence of smoking among people who experience severe mental ill health (SMI).... more There is a high prevalence of smoking among people who experience severe mental ill health (SMI). Helping people with disorders such as bipolar illness and schizophrenia to quit smoking would help improve their health, increase longevity and also reduce health inequalities. Around half of people with SMI who smoke express an interest in cutting down or quitting smoking. There is limited evidence that smoking cessation can be achieved for people with SMI. Those with SMI rarely access routine NHS smoking cessation services. This suggests the need to develop and evaluate a behavioural support and medication package tailored to the needs of people with SMI. The objective in this project was to conduct a pilot trial to establish acceptability of the intervention and to ensure the feasibility of recruitment, randomisation and follow-up. We also sought preliminary estimates of effect size in order to design a fully powered trial of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The pilot should inform a fully powered trial to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a bespoke smoking cessation (BSC) intervention with usual general practitioner (GP) care for people with SMI. A pilot pragmatic two-arm individually randomised controlled trial (RCT). Simple randomisation was used following a computer-generated random number sequence. Participants and practitioners were not blinded to allocation. Primary care and secondary care mental health services in England. Smokers aged > 18 years with a severe mental illness who would like to cut down or quit smoking. A BSC intervention delivered by mental health specialists trained to deliver evidence-supported smoking cessation interventions compared with usual GP care. The primary outcome was carbon monoxide-verified smoking cessation at 12 months. Smoking-related secondary outcomes were reduction of number of cigarettes smoked, Fagerstrom test of nicotine dependence and motivation to quit (MTQ). Other secondary outcomes were Patient Health Questionnaire-9 items and Short Form Questionnaire-12 items to assess whether there were improvements or deterioration in mental health and quality of life. We also measured body mass index to assess whether or not smoking cessation was associated with weight gain. These were measured at 1, 6 and 12 months post randomisation. The trial recruited 97 people aged 19-73 years who smoked between 5 and 60 cigarettes per day (mean 25 cigarettes). Participants were recruited from four mental health trusts and 45 GP surgeries. Forty-six people were randomised to the BSC intervention and 51 people were randomised to usual GP care. The odds of quitting at 12 months was higher in the BSC intervention (36% vs. 23%) but did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio 2.9; 95% confidence interval 0.8% to 10.5%). At 3 and 6 months there was no evidence of difference in self-reported smoking cessation. There was a non-significant reduction in the number of cigarettes smoked and nicotine dependence. MTQ and number of quit attempts all increased in the BSC group compared with usual care. There was no difference in terms of quality of life at any time point, but there was evidence of an increase in depression scores at 12 months for the BSC group. There were no serious adverse events thought likely to be related to the trial interventions. The pilot economic analysis demonstrated that it was feasible to carry out a full economic analysis. It was possible to recruit people with SMI from primary and secondary care to a trial of a smoking cessation intervention based around behavioural support and medication. The overall direction of effect was a positive trend in relation to biochemically verified smoking cessation and it was feasible to obtain follow-up in a substantial proportion of participants. A definitive trial of a bespoke cessation intervention has been prioritised by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and the SCIMITAR pilot trial forms a template for a fully powered RCT to examine clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN79497236. This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment, Vol. 19, No. 25. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Clinical practice guidelines disagree on whether health care professionals should screen women fo... more Clinical practice guidelines disagree on whether health care professionals should screen women for depression during pregnancy or postpartum. The objective of this systematic review was to determine whether depression screening improves depression outcomes among women during pregnancy or the postpartum period. Searches included the CINAHL, EMBASE, ISI, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO databases through April 1, 2013; manual journal searches; reference list reviews; citation tracking of included articles; and trial registry reviews. RCTs in any language that compared depression outcomes between women during pregnancy or postpartum randomized to undergo depression screening versus women not screened were eligible. There were 9,242 unique titles/abstracts and 15 full-text articles reviewed. Only 1 RCT of screening postpartum was included, but none during pregnancy. The eligible postpartum study evaluated screening in mothers in Hong Kong with 2-month-old babies (N=462) and reported a standardized mean difference for symptoms of depression at 6 months postpartum of 0.34 (95% confidence interval=0.15 to 0.52, P<0.001). Standardized mean difference per 44 additional women treated in the intervention trial arm compared to the non-screening arm was approximately 1.8. Risk of bias was high, however, because the status of outcome measures was changed post-hoc and because the reported effect size per woman treated was 6-7 times the effect sizes reported in comparable depression care interventions. There is currently no evidence from any well-designed and conducted RCT that screening for depression would benefit women in pregnancy or postpartum. Existing guidelines that recommend depression screening during pregnancy or postpartum should be re-considered.
Observational and some experimental data suggest that low intake of vitamin K may be associated w... more Observational and some experimental data suggest that low intake of vitamin K may be associated with an increased risk of fracture. To assess whether oral vitamin K (phytonadione and menaquinone) supplementation can reduce bone loss and prevent fractures. The search included the following electronic databases: MEDLINE (1966 to June 2005), EMBASE (1980 to June 2005), the Cochrane Library (issue 2, 2005), the ISI Web of Science (1945 to June 2005), the National Research Register (inception to the present), Current Controlled Trials, and the Medical Research Council Research Register. Randomized controlled trials that gave adult participants oral phytonadione and menaquinone supplements for longer than 6 months were included in this review. Four authors extracted data on changes in bone density and type of fracture. All articles were double screened and double data extracted. Thirteen trials were identified with data on bone loss, and 7 reported fracture data. All studies but 1 showed ...
... All authors contributed to the design and conduct of this systematic review. ... Journal of A... more ... All authors contributed to the design and conduct of this systematic review. ... Journal of Advanced Nursing 2002; 37: 470–476. Gilbody SM, Whitty P. A. Improving the delivery and organisation of mental health services: Beyond the ... Job stress interventions, LR Murphy, JJJ Hurrell. ...
To provide an overview of methods to identify postnatal depression (PND) in primary care and to a... more To provide an overview of methods to identify postnatal depression (PND) in primary care and to assess their validity, acceptability, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, to model estimates of cost, to assess whether any method meets UK National Screening Committee (NSC) criteria and to identify areas for future research. Searches of 20 electronic databases (including MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EMBASE, CENTRAL, DARE and CDSR), forward citation searching, personal communication with authors and searching of reference lists. A generalised linear mixed model approach to the bivariate meta-analysis was undertaken for the validation review with quality assessment using QUADAS. Within the acceptability review, a textual narrative approach was employed to synthesise qualitative and quantitative research evidence. For the clinical and cost-effectiveness reviews methods outlined by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination and the Cochrane Collaboration were followed. Probabilistic models were developed to estimate the costs associated with different identification strategies. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was the most frequently explored instrument across all of the reviews. In terms of test performance, postnatally the EPDS performed reasonably well: sensitivity ranged from 0.60 (specificity 0.97) to 0.96 (specificity 0.45) for major depression only; from 0.31 (specificity 0.99) to 0.91 (specificity 0.67) for major or minor depression; and from 0.38 (specificity 0.99) to 0.86 (specificity 0.87) for any psychiatric disorder. Evidence from the acceptability review indicated that, in the majority of studies, the EPDS was acceptable to women and health-care professionals when women were forewarned of the process, when the EPDS was administered in the home, with due attention to training, with empathetic skills of the health visitor and due consideration to positive responses to question 10 about self-harm. Suggestive evidence from the clinical effectiveness review indicated that use of the EPDS, compared with usual care, may lead to reductions in the number of women with depression scores above a threshold. In the absence of existing cost-effectiveness studies of PND identification strategies, a decision-analytic model was developed. The results of the base-case analysis suggested that use of formal identification strategies did not appear to represent value for money, based on conventional thresholds of cost-effectiveness used in the NHS. However, the scenarios considered demonstrated that this conclusion was primarily driven by the costs of false positives assumed in the base-case model. In light of the results of our evidence synthesis and decision modelling we revisited the examination of PND screening against five of the NSC criteria. We found that the accepted criteria for a PND screening programme were not currently met. The evidence suggested that there is a simple, safe, precise and validated screening test, in principle a suitable cut-off level could be defined and that the test is acceptable to the population. Evidence surrounding clinical and cost-effectiveness of methods to identify PND is lacking. Further research should aim to identify the optimal identification strategy, in terms of key psychometric properties for postnatal populations. In particular, research comparing the performance of the Whooley and help questions, the EPDS and a generic depression measure would be informative. It would also be informative to identify the natural history of PND over time and to identify the clinical effectiveness of the most valid and acceptable method to identify postnatal depression. Further research within a randomised controlled trial would provide robust estimates of the clinical effectiveness.
To validate the Whooley questions as a screening tool for depression amongst a population of olde... more To validate the Whooley questions as a screening tool for depression amongst a population of older adults in UK primary care. To assess the diagnostic performance of the Whooley questions as a screening tool for depression amongst older adults in UK primary care. A cross-sectional validation study was conducted with 766 patients aged ≥75 from UK primary care, recruited via 17 general practices based in the North of England during the pilot phase of a randomized controlled trial. Sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios comparing the index test (two Whooley questions) with a diagnosis of major depressive disorder (MDD) ascertained by the reference standard Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). The two screening questions had a sensitivity of 94.3% (95% confidence interval, 80.8-99.3%) and specificity of 62.7% (95% confidence interval, 59.0-66.2%). The likelihood ratio for a positive test was 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 2.2-2.9) and the likelihood ratio for a negative test was 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.35). The two Whooley questions missed few cases of depression. However, they were responsible for a high rate of false positives. This creates additional burden on general practitioners, to conduct more detailed investigation on patients who screen positive, but many of whom turn out not to have MDD.
The Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) incentivises general practices in England to provide pro... more The Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) incentivises general practices in England to provide proactive care for people with serious mental illness (SMI) including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and other psychoses. Better proactive primary care may reduce the risk of psychiatric admissions to hospital, but this has never been tested empirically. The QOF data set included 8234 general practices in England from 2006/2007 to 2010/2011. Rates of hospital admissions with primary diagnoses of SMI or bipolar disorder were estimated from national routine hospital data and aggregated to practice level. Poisson regression was used to analyse associations. Practices with higher achievement on the annual review for SMI patients (MH9), or that performed better on either of the two lithium indicators for bipolar patients (MH4 or MH5), had more psychiatric admissions. An additional 1% in achievement rates for MH9 was associated with an average increase in the annual practice admission rate of 0....
Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 2007
To establish the role and value of written information available to patients about individual med... more To establish the role and value of written information available to patients about individual medicines from the perspective of patients, carers and professionals. To determine how effective this information is in improving patients' knowledge and understanding of treatment and health outcomes. Electronic databases searched to late 2004, experts in information design, and stakeholder workshops (including patients and patient organisations). Data from selected studies were tabulated and the results were qualitatively synthesised along with findings from the information design and stakeholder workshop strands. Most people do not value the written information they receive. They had concerns about the use of complex language and poor visual presentation and in most cases the research showed that the information did not increase knowledge. The research showed that patients valued written information that was tailored to their individual circumstances and illness, and that contained a...
Journal of substance abuse treatment, Jan 12, 2015
Depressed mood often co-exists with frequent drug and alcohol use. This trial examined the feasib... more Depressed mood often co-exists with frequent drug and alcohol use. This trial examined the feasibility of screening, recruitment, randomization and engagement of drug and alcohol users in psychological interventions for depression symptoms. A total of 50 patients involved in community drugs and alcohol treatment (CDAT) were randomly allocated to behavioral activation delivered by psychological therapists (n=23) or to cognitive behavioral therapy based self-help introduced by CDAT workers (n=27). We examined recruitment and engagement rates, as well as changes in depression (PHQ-9) symptoms and changes in percent days abstinent (PDA within last month) at 24weeks follow-up. The ratio of screened to recruited participants was 4 to 1, and the randomization schedule successfully generated 2 groups with comparable characteristics. Follow-up was possible with 78% of participants post-treatment. Overall engagement in psychological interventions was low; only 42% of randomized participants a...
To assess the effectiveness of self-management support interventions in men with long-term condit... more To assess the effectiveness of self-management support interventions in men with long-term conditions. A quantitative systematic review with meta-analysis. The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was searched to identify published reviews of self-management support interventions. Relevant reviews were screened to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of self-management support interventions conducted in men alone, or which analysed the effects of interventions by sex. Data on relevant outcomes, patient populations, intervention type and study quality were extracted. Quality appraisal was conducted using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Meta-analysis was conducted to compare the effects of interventions in men, women, and mixed-sex sub-groups. 40 RCTs of self-management support interventions in men, and 20 eligible RCTs where an analysis by sex was reported, were included in the review. Meta-analysis suggested that physical activity, education, and peer support-based interv...
There is a high prevalence of smoking among people who experience severe mental ill health (SMI).... more There is a high prevalence of smoking among people who experience severe mental ill health (SMI). Helping people with disorders such as bipolar illness and schizophrenia to quit smoking would help improve their health, increase longevity and also reduce health inequalities. Around half of people with SMI who smoke express an interest in cutting down or quitting smoking. There is limited evidence that smoking cessation can be achieved for people with SMI. Those with SMI rarely access routine NHS smoking cessation services. This suggests the need to develop and evaluate a behavioural support and medication package tailored to the needs of people with SMI. The objective in this project was to conduct a pilot trial to establish acceptability of the intervention and to ensure the feasibility of recruitment, randomisation and follow-up. We also sought preliminary estimates of effect size in order to design a fully powered trial of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The pilot should inform a fully powered trial to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a bespoke smoking cessation (BSC) intervention with usual general practitioner (GP) care for people with SMI. A pilot pragmatic two-arm individually randomised controlled trial (RCT). Simple randomisation was used following a computer-generated random number sequence. Participants and practitioners were not blinded to allocation. Primary care and secondary care mental health services in England. Smokers aged > 18 years with a severe mental illness who would like to cut down or quit smoking. A BSC intervention delivered by mental health specialists trained to deliver evidence-supported smoking cessation interventions compared with usual GP care. The primary outcome was carbon monoxide-verified smoking cessation at 12 months. Smoking-related secondary outcomes were reduction of number of cigarettes smoked, Fagerstrom test of nicotine dependence and motivation to quit (MTQ). Other secondary outcomes were Patient Health Questionnaire-9 items and Short Form Questionnaire-12 items to assess whether there were improvements or deterioration in mental health and quality of life. We also measured body mass index to assess whether or not smoking cessation was associated with weight gain. These were measured at 1, 6 and 12 months post randomisation. The trial recruited 97 people aged 19-73 years who smoked between 5 and 60 cigarettes per day (mean 25 cigarettes). Participants were recruited from four mental health trusts and 45 GP surgeries. Forty-six people were randomised to the BSC intervention and 51 people were randomised to usual GP care. The odds of quitting at 12 months was higher in the BSC intervention (36% vs. 23%) but did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio 2.9; 95% confidence interval 0.8% to 10.5%). At 3 and 6 months there was no evidence of difference in self-reported smoking cessation. There was a non-significant reduction in the number of cigarettes smoked and nicotine dependence. MTQ and number of quit attempts all increased in the BSC group compared with usual care. There was no difference in terms of quality of life at any time point, but there was evidence of an increase in depression scores at 12 months for the BSC group. There were no serious adverse events thought likely to be related to the trial interventions. The pilot economic analysis demonstrated that it was feasible to carry out a full economic analysis. It was possible to recruit people with SMI from primary and secondary care to a trial of a smoking cessation intervention based around behavioural support and medication. The overall direction of effect was a positive trend in relation to biochemically verified smoking cessation and it was feasible to obtain follow-up in a substantial proportion of participants. A definitive trial of a bespoke cessation intervention has been prioritised by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and the SCIMITAR pilot trial forms a template for a fully powered RCT to examine clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN79497236. This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment, Vol. 19, No. 25. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Clinical practice guidelines disagree on whether health care professionals should screen women fo... more Clinical practice guidelines disagree on whether health care professionals should screen women for depression during pregnancy or postpartum. The objective of this systematic review was to determine whether depression screening improves depression outcomes among women during pregnancy or the postpartum period. Searches included the CINAHL, EMBASE, ISI, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO databases through April 1, 2013; manual journal searches; reference list reviews; citation tracking of included articles; and trial registry reviews. RCTs in any language that compared depression outcomes between women during pregnancy or postpartum randomized to undergo depression screening versus women not screened were eligible. There were 9,242 unique titles/abstracts and 15 full-text articles reviewed. Only 1 RCT of screening postpartum was included, but none during pregnancy. The eligible postpartum study evaluated screening in mothers in Hong Kong with 2-month-old babies (N=462) and reported a standardized mean difference for symptoms of depression at 6 months postpartum of 0.34 (95% confidence interval=0.15 to 0.52, P<0.001). Standardized mean difference per 44 additional women treated in the intervention trial arm compared to the non-screening arm was approximately 1.8. Risk of bias was high, however, because the status of outcome measures was changed post-hoc and because the reported effect size per woman treated was 6-7 times the effect sizes reported in comparable depression care interventions. There is currently no evidence from any well-designed and conducted RCT that screening for depression would benefit women in pregnancy or postpartum. Existing guidelines that recommend depression screening during pregnancy or postpartum should be re-considered.
Observational and some experimental data suggest that low intake of vitamin K may be associated w... more Observational and some experimental data suggest that low intake of vitamin K may be associated with an increased risk of fracture. To assess whether oral vitamin K (phytonadione and menaquinone) supplementation can reduce bone loss and prevent fractures. The search included the following electronic databases: MEDLINE (1966 to June 2005), EMBASE (1980 to June 2005), the Cochrane Library (issue 2, 2005), the ISI Web of Science (1945 to June 2005), the National Research Register (inception to the present), Current Controlled Trials, and the Medical Research Council Research Register. Randomized controlled trials that gave adult participants oral phytonadione and menaquinone supplements for longer than 6 months were included in this review. Four authors extracted data on changes in bone density and type of fracture. All articles were double screened and double data extracted. Thirteen trials were identified with data on bone loss, and 7 reported fracture data. All studies but 1 showed ...
... All authors contributed to the design and conduct of this systematic review. ... Journal of A... more ... All authors contributed to the design and conduct of this systematic review. ... Journal of Advanced Nursing 2002; 37: 470–476. Gilbody SM, Whitty P. A. Improving the delivery and organisation of mental health services: Beyond the ... Job stress interventions, LR Murphy, JJJ Hurrell. ...
To provide an overview of methods to identify postnatal depression (PND) in primary care and to a... more To provide an overview of methods to identify postnatal depression (PND) in primary care and to assess their validity, acceptability, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, to model estimates of cost, to assess whether any method meets UK National Screening Committee (NSC) criteria and to identify areas for future research. Searches of 20 electronic databases (including MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EMBASE, CENTRAL, DARE and CDSR), forward citation searching, personal communication with authors and searching of reference lists. A generalised linear mixed model approach to the bivariate meta-analysis was undertaken for the validation review with quality assessment using QUADAS. Within the acceptability review, a textual narrative approach was employed to synthesise qualitative and quantitative research evidence. For the clinical and cost-effectiveness reviews methods outlined by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination and the Cochrane Collaboration were followed. Probabilistic models were developed to estimate the costs associated with different identification strategies. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was the most frequently explored instrument across all of the reviews. In terms of test performance, postnatally the EPDS performed reasonably well: sensitivity ranged from 0.60 (specificity 0.97) to 0.96 (specificity 0.45) for major depression only; from 0.31 (specificity 0.99) to 0.91 (specificity 0.67) for major or minor depression; and from 0.38 (specificity 0.99) to 0.86 (specificity 0.87) for any psychiatric disorder. Evidence from the acceptability review indicated that, in the majority of studies, the EPDS was acceptable to women and health-care professionals when women were forewarned of the process, when the EPDS was administered in the home, with due attention to training, with empathetic skills of the health visitor and due consideration to positive responses to question 10 about self-harm. Suggestive evidence from the clinical effectiveness review indicated that use of the EPDS, compared with usual care, may lead to reductions in the number of women with depression scores above a threshold. In the absence of existing cost-effectiveness studies of PND identification strategies, a decision-analytic model was developed. The results of the base-case analysis suggested that use of formal identification strategies did not appear to represent value for money, based on conventional thresholds of cost-effectiveness used in the NHS. However, the scenarios considered demonstrated that this conclusion was primarily driven by the costs of false positives assumed in the base-case model. In light of the results of our evidence synthesis and decision modelling we revisited the examination of PND screening against five of the NSC criteria. We found that the accepted criteria for a PND screening programme were not currently met. The evidence suggested that there is a simple, safe, precise and validated screening test, in principle a suitable cut-off level could be defined and that the test is acceptable to the population. Evidence surrounding clinical and cost-effectiveness of methods to identify PND is lacking. Further research should aim to identify the optimal identification strategy, in terms of key psychometric properties for postnatal populations. In particular, research comparing the performance of the Whooley and help questions, the EPDS and a generic depression measure would be informative. It would also be informative to identify the natural history of PND over time and to identify the clinical effectiveness of the most valid and acceptable method to identify postnatal depression. Further research within a randomised controlled trial would provide robust estimates of the clinical effectiveness.
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Papers by Simon Gilbody