Connections between climate and conflict have been the centre of critical debate and discussion. ... more Connections between climate and conflict have been the centre of critical debate and discussion. In this Viewpoint, five researchers provide their thoughts and opinions on the topic, outlining the types of conflict that can be linked to climate variability, and how these relationships might evolve with ongoing climate change. Why is there debate about climate-conflict connections, and where do you stand? Cullen Hendrix: I am convinced that climate extremes and certain rapid-onset natural disasters are robustly linked to conflict outcomes. These impacts can be marginal, affecting the propensity of individuals to participate in violence, or they can be massive, such as with longer-term climate conditions influencing the rise and fall of empires. However, I am not convinced these effects are uniform across space, time, and different political and economic systems. The debate is heated due to the baggage of geographic determinism. Human geographers, in particular, have been very sceptical of climate-conflict links because the discourse deprives humans of agency (among other concerns raised by Ayesha Siddiqi in this piece). There is some truth to that: saying the Syrian civil war was caused by climate change absolves the Assad of their role in precipitating the conflict via exclusionary rule and repressive responses to discontent. Indeed, humans experience climate phenomena in specific economic, social and political contexts, and understanding these contexts is key to understanding the diversity of conflict responses to similar climate shocks.
Connections between climate and conflict have been the centre of critical debate and discussion. ... more Connections between climate and conflict have been the centre of critical debate and discussion. In this Viewpoint, five researchers provide their thoughts and opinions on the topic, outlining the types of conflict that can be linked to climate variability, and how these relationships might evolve with ongoing climate change. Why is there debate about climate-conflict connections, and where do you stand? Cullen Hendrix: I am convinced that climate extremes and certain rapid-onset natural disasters are robustly linked to conflict outcomes. These impacts can be marginal, affecting the propensity of individuals to participate in violence, or they can be massive, such as with longer-term climate conditions influencing the rise and fall of empires. However, I am not convinced these effects are uniform across space, time, and different political and economic systems. The debate is heated due to the baggage of geographic determinism. Human geographers, in particular, have been very sceptical of climate-conflict links because the discourse deprives humans of agency (among other concerns raised by Ayesha Siddiqi in this piece). There is some truth to that: saying the Syrian civil war was caused by climate change absolves the Assad of their role in precipitating the conflict via exclusionary rule and repressive responses to discontent. Indeed, humans experience climate phenomena in specific economic, social and political contexts, and understanding these contexts is key to understanding the diversity of conflict responses to similar climate shocks.
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