This paper develops a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis of monetary integration, and applies it ... more This paper develops a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis of monetary integration, and applies it to the currency unions actively pursued in Africa. The benefits of monetary union come from a more credible monetary policy, while the costs derive from real shock asymmetries and fiscal disparities. The model is calibrated using African data. Simulations indicate that the proposed EAC, ECOWAS, and SADC
The paper revisits the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability. Two salient featur... more The paper revisits the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability. Two salient features of our analysis are (1) a systematic test for the government’s ambivalent role as a shock absorber and a shock inducer—removing a downward bias present in existing estimates of the impact of automatic stabilizers—and (2) a broad sample of advanced and emerging market economies. Results provide
SUMMARY This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of numerical fiscal rules implemented at the... more SUMMARY This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of numerical fiscal rules implemented at the national level in 25 countries of the European Union, using a unique, survey-based dataset. It explores the possible reasons for the growing reliance on such rules and assesses the influence of numerical fiscal rules on fiscal performance. Both the introduction of the EU fiscal framework and
Visiting scholar Xavier Debrun, and Bruegel director Jean Pisani-Ferry contribute to the emerging... more Visiting scholar Xavier Debrun, and Bruegel director Jean Pisani-Ferry contribute to the emerging discussion on reform strategies in the euro area. An earlier version of this note was presented to the Eurogroup Working Group of the Economic Policy Committee of the EU.
The paper analyzes some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and... more The paper analyzes some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Greater "procedural" flexibility in the Pact's implementation may improve welfare. Procedural flexibility designates the enforcer's room to apply judgment on underlying policies and to set a consolidation path that does not discourage high-quality measures. Budgetary opaqueness may hinder the qualitative assessment of fiscal
We propose a fiscal rule that fulfills a specific debt reduction objective while maintaining sign... more We propose a fiscal rule that fulfills a specific debt reduction objective while maintaining significant fiscal flexibility-two overarching concerns in Israel. Not unlike the Swiss "debt brake," the rule incorporates an error-correction mechanism (ECM) through which departure from the debt objective affects binding medium-run expenditure ceilings. Two variants of our ECM rule are shown to be superior to a comparable
This paper analyzes the decision of a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement struct... more This paper analyzes the decision of a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact. The model shows that a pact may harm structural reforms, sacrificing future growth for present stability. The welfare gains brought about by a pact depend on a trade-off between the reduction in
We study the desirability of reforming fiscal institutions along with the delegation of monetary ... more We study the desirability of reforming fiscal institutions along with the delegation of monetary policy to an independent central
It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for international coordinatio... more It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved in such coordination in the perspective of macroeconomic stabilization. A simple model identifies the circumstances under which coordination may be desirable. Coordination is beneficial when the cross-country correlation of the shocks is low. However, given the potentially adverse reaction by the ECB (as a result of free-riding or a conflict on the orientation of the policy mix), fiscal coordination is likely to prove counterproductive when demand or supply shocks are highly symmetric across countries and the governments are unable to acquire a strategic leadership position vis-Ã -vis the ECB.
This paper compares different nominal anchors in the case of a fixed exchange rate regime for the... more This paper compares different nominal anchors in the case of a fixed exchange rate regime for the future single regional currency of the Economic Community of the West African States (ECOWAS). We study the anchor choice when the countries focus the exchange rate policy to promote internal and external competitiveness. We consider four foreign anchor currencies: the us dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan. Using a counterfactual analysis, we find little support for a dominant peg in the ECOWAS zone. In attempting to select an anchor currency, as regards internal and external competitiveness, several aspects need to be taken into consideration: the variability of the commodity prices, adverse downward trend movements, the stability of export revenues and the invoicing currency. A discriminating element is the direction toward which the anchor currency moves, while the world price of commodities evolves in the opposite direction. Our simulations show that the countries would not agre...
This paper develops a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis of monetary integration, and applies it ... more This paper develops a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis of monetary integration, and applies it to the currency unions actively pursued in Africa. The benefits of monetary union come from a more credible monetary policy, while the costs derive from real shock asymmetries and fiscal disparities. The model is calibrated using African data. Simulations indicate that the proposed EAC, ECOWAS, and SADC
The paper revisits the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability. Two salient featur... more The paper revisits the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability. Two salient features of our analysis are (1) a systematic test for the government’s ambivalent role as a shock absorber and a shock inducer—removing a downward bias present in existing estimates of the impact of automatic stabilizers—and (2) a broad sample of advanced and emerging market economies. Results provide
SUMMARY This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of numerical fiscal rules implemented at the... more SUMMARY This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of numerical fiscal rules implemented at the national level in 25 countries of the European Union, using a unique, survey-based dataset. It explores the possible reasons for the growing reliance on such rules and assesses the influence of numerical fiscal rules on fiscal performance. Both the introduction of the EU fiscal framework and
Visiting scholar Xavier Debrun, and Bruegel director Jean Pisani-Ferry contribute to the emerging... more Visiting scholar Xavier Debrun, and Bruegel director Jean Pisani-Ferry contribute to the emerging discussion on reform strategies in the euro area. An earlier version of this note was presented to the Eurogroup Working Group of the Economic Policy Committee of the EU.
The paper analyzes some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and... more The paper analyzes some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Greater "procedural" flexibility in the Pact's implementation may improve welfare. Procedural flexibility designates the enforcer's room to apply judgment on underlying policies and to set a consolidation path that does not discourage high-quality measures. Budgetary opaqueness may hinder the qualitative assessment of fiscal
We propose a fiscal rule that fulfills a specific debt reduction objective while maintaining sign... more We propose a fiscal rule that fulfills a specific debt reduction objective while maintaining significant fiscal flexibility-two overarching concerns in Israel. Not unlike the Swiss "debt brake," the rule incorporates an error-correction mechanism (ECM) through which departure from the debt objective affects binding medium-run expenditure ceilings. Two variants of our ECM rule are shown to be superior to a comparable
This paper analyzes the decision of a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement struct... more This paper analyzes the decision of a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact. The model shows that a pact may harm structural reforms, sacrificing future growth for present stability. The welfare gains brought about by a pact depend on a trade-off between the reduction in
We study the desirability of reforming fiscal institutions along with the delegation of monetary ... more We study the desirability of reforming fiscal institutions along with the delegation of monetary policy to an independent central
It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for international coordinatio... more It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved in such coordination in the perspective of macroeconomic stabilization. A simple model identifies the circumstances under which coordination may be desirable. Coordination is beneficial when the cross-country correlation of the shocks is low. However, given the potentially adverse reaction by the ECB (as a result of free-riding or a conflict on the orientation of the policy mix), fiscal coordination is likely to prove counterproductive when demand or supply shocks are highly symmetric across countries and the governments are unable to acquire a strategic leadership position vis-Ã -vis the ECB.
This paper compares different nominal anchors in the case of a fixed exchange rate regime for the... more This paper compares different nominal anchors in the case of a fixed exchange rate regime for the future single regional currency of the Economic Community of the West African States (ECOWAS). We study the anchor choice when the countries focus the exchange rate policy to promote internal and external competitiveness. We consider four foreign anchor currencies: the us dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan. Using a counterfactual analysis, we find little support for a dominant peg in the ECOWAS zone. In attempting to select an anchor currency, as regards internal and external competitiveness, several aspects need to be taken into consideration: the variability of the commodity prices, adverse downward trend movements, the stability of export revenues and the invoicing currency. A discriminating element is the direction toward which the anchor currency moves, while the world price of commodities evolves in the opposite direction. Our simulations show that the countries would not agre...
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Papers by Xavier Debrun