Papers by Jagat Prirayani
This study investigated macroeconomic linkage of consumer confidence in Indonesia, whether consum... more This study investigated macroeconomic linkage of consumer confidence in Indonesia, whether consumer confidence index in Indonesia can be explained by macroeconomic indicators in the past and owns predictive power of a future state of Indonesian economy. The study used macroeconomic variables including Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), Inflation, GDP growth, Currency rate, Policy rate and Stock Price in monthly period during January 2001 - December2015. The model was constructed by Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach. The result shows that without holding other variables constant, CCI is co-integrated with inflation and stock price. Accordingly, it was found that CCI causes inflation, policy rate and stock price. However, when all variables interact together in one single equation, only causality from CCI at lag two against policy rate remain exists. The model result shows that consumer confidence index is unable to be explained by macroeconomic variables in the past but has predictive power toward future change of policy rate. However, although the index owns predictive power, but its magnitude of contribution to policy rate dynamics is only modest.
The authority of local governments to promote economic development in their own regions was expec... more The authority of local governments to promote economic development in their own regions was expected to take place more quickly after implementation of policies promoting decentralisation and regional autonomy. Economic development needs effective strategies and allocation of resources in the potential economic areas selected as growth centres. This research was conducted in Kabupaten Seram Bagian Barat, one of kabupaten in the Maluku Archipelago, East Indonesia. The goal of this research was to assist local governments to design their economic development strategies by selecting areas that showed potential for staging a growth centre pilot project. The criteria used to select the growth centre in this study were competitive commodities, infrastructure, quality of human resources and strategic location. The data analysis techniques used in this study were location quotient shift, location quotient share and the analysis hierarchy process, which involved using three different groups: academi-cians, entrepreneurs and government offi cials. The results showed that Kecamatan Kairatu and Kecamatan Seram Barat had potential as growth areas and could serve as regional pilot project areas. Furthermore, the results also showed that the infrastructure development must be managed by local governments in both regions and priority (from highest to lowest) given to the provision of educational facilities, construction of highways, construction of health facilities, provision of electricity and clean water.
As one of the main travel destinations in the world, an effort to achieve Bali as the most intere... more As one of the main travel destinations in the world, an effort to achieve Bali as the most interesting, comfortable and highly competitive place for foreign tourists needs to be sustainably enhanced. This effort would require the allocation of economic resources and clear government strategies to achieve the optimal allocation. This research investigated the key indicators of Bali tourism service from two parties, namely the foreign tourists as consumer and the local government as policy maker for tourism services in Bali. The indicators that used in this research were entry, long distance transportation, short distance transportation, hospitality, tourist attraction, promotion and supporting infrastructure. The identification of key indicators was conducted through a tourism survey based on two criteria, namely expected and perceived value, on 235 foreign tourists who stayed in the two most populated regencies, Kuta and Ubud. In addition, the identification of key indicators of policy maker was conducted through interview with Department of Culture and Tourism. The techniques for analyzing the data were Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The findings from this investigation yielded key indicators performance that would be useful for local government to improve tourism performance in Bali. It was also found that the cleanliness of hotel environment, the cleanliness of tourist attractions, the fame of tourist attraction, the availability of short distance transportation, the price of transportation, the flight availability, the highway infrastructure, the electricity supply, the ease of visa and custom process and the international promotion as the essential key indicators that the local government must pay attention to.
Drafts by Jagat Prirayani
This study investigated the factors influencing the emergence of Non Performing Loan (NPL) of Rur... more This study investigated the factors influencing the emergence of Non Performing Loan (NPL) of Rural Banks in Southern Sumatra, one of western provinces in Indonesia, from the perspective of debtors. The data in this study were gathered through questionnairres that spread to 285 debtors throughout the province who have non performing credit. The questionnaire was measured by ordinal scale from 1 to 10 and constructed by 15 variables namely Length of Business Competition, and Economic Condition. The technique in processing the data was Factor Analysis. Furthermore, the result of factor analysis was harmonized with audit findings from banking supervision team from Indonesian Central Bank to produce optimal policies reflected theoretical evidence and practical experience.
Foreign direct investment is a crucial factor in enhancing economy in one country. Many research ... more Foreign direct investment is a crucial factor in enhancing economy in one country. Many research and theory suggest that FDI can increase economic growth in one country by transferring knowledge, providing employment and increasing income. However, studies also reflect that factors in attracting FDI are different among countries. This paper is interested to investigate the factors attracting FDI in the oldest developed country, the United Kingdom, by using Ordinary Least Squared and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The variables used in the model include gross domestic product, real interest rate, trade openness, government surplus and crisis. Overall, the result shows that GDP and Government Surplus are major determinants of FDI in the UK. Furthermore, the model also estimates that lag 1, lag 2 and lag 3 of GDP also have significant impact on FDI in the UK.
Conference Presentations by Jagat Prirayani
Uploads
Papers by Jagat Prirayani
Drafts by Jagat Prirayani
Conference Presentations by Jagat Prirayani