Many issues related to the conservation of urban heritage are closely related to the transit syst... more Many issues related to the conservation of urban heritage are closely related to the transit system and the use of private transportation. Regeneration, revitalization, and/or heritage conservation are not properly managed due to problems arising directly from inconvenient transport solutions that cannot provide or resolve the accessibility and mobility needs of vulnerable groups together with inappropriate space management while indirectly causing economic shrinkage and loss of vitality. Furthermore, even if modern modes of transportation are used, they will cause significant environmental and societal difficulties, making them unsuitable for such sensitive places. This article, using a microsimulation approach, investigates whether a Personal Rapid Transit system is physically applicable, and whether it can meet existing travel requirements to prove that it is sufficient for the needs of local level mobility, and finally whether other environmental/ social impacts such that land use, air pollution, safety, sustainability are positive or negative. As a method, these outputs of the system application are presented as validations of the usefulness of the PRT. Finally, it was found that there is a gain in productivity in terms of mobility as well as other socioeconomic benefits besides the physical applicability of the method. The study's goal is to get the information out about how PRT technology may help produce more ecologically friendly and sustainable solutions while also conserving historical assets.
All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you... more All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately.
Pamukkale University Journal of Engineering Sciences
Transport demand and supply are deemed to determine each other in a cyclic manner. The major idea... more Transport demand and supply are deemed to determine each other in a cyclic manner. The major idea has been that the demand is usually the preceding one. However, in urban cases, usually the land use variables in place of supply interfere this process. Cleansing the land use variables, the regional/national level variable pairs of demand and supply are employed to analyze the cause-effect mechanism. For objectivity, the Granger-causality test (GCT) is used to understand the relationship between transportation demand and supply. The Analyses were made at four dimensions; (a)whether the nexus is one-directional or bidirectional, (b)its significance level, (c)whether demand or supply is the preceding, (d)whether the effects are short-term or long-term. Using the Turkish statistics, the GCT results showed that, in the short/medium run, overwhelmingly the supply variables preceded (mostly in railway mode), mostly unidirectional (one-way causality) manner, however, in the long-run almost no relationship was found. In other transportation modes, no significant relationship is observed. Finally, bi-directional relations were usually observed in suburban rail. The investments then should be made according to known demand. Usually, the effects of supply (especially of railways and roadways) could rather fade away in the long-run. Still, no general statement can be made for the demand/supply causality especially in terms of which one is preceding and of the direction of causality. The chaotic nature of the process reigns over with the changing conditions. Ulaşım arz ve talebinin karşılıklı ve dönüşümlü biçimde birbirlerini belirlediği düşünülür. Aslolan talebin belirlemede öncül olmasıdır. Fakat kentsel bölgelerde, genellikle arz yerine kullanılan arazi kullanım değişkenleri bu sürecin arasına karışmaktadır. Arazi kullanım değişkenlerini temizleyerek, bölgesel/milli arz-talep değişken çiftleri sebep-sonuç mekanizması analizinde kullanılmıştır. Nesnel bir analiz için, Granger-nedensellik testi (GCT), tek-yön ve çift-yön için zaman seri veri kullanılarak, hem öncel olan tarafın ve en etken değişkenlerinin tespitinde kullanılmıştır. Analizler dört seviyede yapılmıştır; (a)bağıntının tek-yönlü veya çift-yönlü olup olmadığı, (b)istatistiki anlamlılık, (c)talep veya arzın başlatıcı olup olmadığı, (d) etkilerin kısa vade veya uzun vade olup olmadığı. Ülkemizin bölge istatistikleri ile GCT sonuçları göstermiştir ki, arz-talep etkileşimi tartışmasına açıklık getirebilecek şekilde tek-yön ilişkide arz tarafı değişkenleri özellikle demiryolları bakımından daha önceldir. Buna mukabil, uzun vadede anlamlı sonuçlar hemen hemen yoktur. Sonuçta, çift-yönlü ilişkiler banliyö tren ulaşımında gözlemlenmiştir. Yatırımlar mutlaka talep bilgisi doğrultusunda olmalıdır. Genellikle, arz etkileri (bilhassa demiryolu ve karayolunda) uzun vadede kaybolma eğilimindedir. Hala, arz/talep nedenselliğinde hangisinin başat olduğu ve nedensellik yönlenimi konusunda genel bir hükme varılamamaktadır. Değişen koşullara göre sürecin karmaşık doğası etkin olmaktadır.
Using simulations and perform predictions with results of the simulation to discover the changes ... more Using simulations and perform predictions with results of the simulation to discover the changes in cities over time, the direction of growth and tendency of change patterns is pretty vital for an effective planning study. In the current literature, the sprawl of cities to their closer environs have in general been modeled by complex methods such as Cellular Automata, Multi-agent Systems and Artificial Neural Networks. Cellular Automata is one of the most common of these methods. Urban spatial change and its simulation by GIS-based Cellular Automata (GCA) is a trending issue. Such mega-projects as the bridge and tube-tunnel projects, etc., which are at the agenda of our country, are supposed to have quite important socioeconomic and environmental impacts as well as the importance given to the traffic relief and transportation. These big project are known to have the secondary and synergetic impacts on urban rental values, too, and also positive and negative effects on the planning process.However, estimation of urban rent impacts of mega-projects through the method is quite new. Using data of current land values and realtor opinions on determining rent parameters, rent impacts were estimated for Izmir Bay Tube-Tunnel Project (IBTT) for three scenarios and 5-year periods after 2016. The method utility was tested for Inciraltı region, and which locations would be significantly affected by the IBTT were detected. A useful instrument that the planning can use to know rent impacts of big projects, which can be a software application in the future, was developed. ÖZ Bir kentin zaman içerisinde uğradığı değişimin, gelişme yönünün ve arazi kullanımlarındaki değişim eğilimlerinin simülasyonlarla belirlenmesi ile geleceğe yönelik tahminler yapmak etkili bir planlama çalışmasında oldukça önemlidir. Mevcut literatürde, kentlerin çevreye yayılımı; Hücresel Özişlem, Çok Ajanlı Sistemler, Yapay Sinir Ağları gibi karmaşık sistem modelleme teknikleri ile modellenmektedir. Hücresel Özişlem bu yöntemlerin en çok uygulananlarından biridir. Kentsel mekanın zamanda uğradığı değişim ve CBS'de Hücresel Özişlem (HÖ) yöntemiyle tahminlenmesi önemi artan bir konu olmuştur. Ülkemiz gündeminde yer alan köprü, tüp geçit, vb. projelerin kendileri kadar önemli ekonomik, sosyal ve çevresel etkileri vardır. Özellikle bu tür mega-projelerin kentsel rantlara olduğu kadar, planlama süreçlerine de olumlu/ olumsuz ikincil ve sinerjik etkileri bulunmaktadır. Bu tür etkilerin gelecekte ne olacağı da planlama açısından aynı derecede önemlidir. Ancak, mega-projelerin kentsel ranta söz konusu yöntemle etkisinin ele alınması oldukça yenidir. Rayiç bedel ve rantı belirleyen parametreler hakkında emlakçı görüşleri veri alınarak İzmir İnciraltı'ndan geçmesi planlanan İzmir Körfez Tüp Geçiş Projesinin (İKTG) HÖ ile üç olası senaryo bazında ve 2016'dan sonra beşer yıllık dönemlerde rant etkileri simüle edilmiştir. Yöntemin işleyiş sınaması yapılmış, İnciraltı bölgesindeki rantların geleceğe ilişkin verisi üretilmiştir. İKTG'nin, bölgenin hangi noktalarına güçlü etkide bulunabileceği gözlemlenmiştir. Böylece, büyük projelerin olası rant etkisi ile ilgili planlamanın yararlanabileceği ve ileride yazılıma dönüştürülebilecek elverişli bir araç geliştirilmiştir.
In an earlier experimental transportation modeling study on transport and the disadvantaged, cali... more In an earlier experimental transportation modeling study on transport and the disadvantaged, calibrated in a small town in Turkey, it was observed that an integrated transport planning model for the disadvantaged was likely. The findings were observable at all stages of the sequential modeling; however, with slight differences compared to 'normal' model results. This paper aims to show that the method of policy capture could be possible based on these differences, and could help improve the adverse conditions of the disadvantaged. The analysis method, a category analysis based on cluster analysis results, used TRANUS software to run simulations for the 3 disadvantaged types: socioeconomic, spatial, and positional. Simulation results demonstrate that the socioeconomic dimension was the best for policy capture.
I would express firstly great thanks to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Güneş GÜR for having accep... more I would express firstly great thanks to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Güneş GÜR for having accepted me to prepare this master thesis. I would also thank to Assist. Prof. Dr. Yavuz DUVARCI for his theoretical support during the process of this study. I would express heartfelt thanks to my dearest Evrim GÜÇER who made a serious contribution and support while preparing the thesis. I am also in debt to Ali Kemal ÇINAR for computer support. I am deeply grateful to; İBŞB staff; Ilgaz CANDEMİR, Emre ORAL, Esin TÜRSEN and Orhan KESLER for their help to enable data access. Ömür SAYGIN for GIS database support. Rose GANDEE, information specialist of APTA, for sending books. Özgür İMRE for his help throughout printing process. Finally, I would like to thank to my fellow Mehmet BAŞOĞLU for his help in land survey.
This study is based on three main questions about the utilization of geothermal energy. The first... more This study is based on three main questions about the utilization of geothermal energy. The first question is how much heat energy the geothermal resource contains? The second one is what the utilization alternatives are for this resource? And the last question is according to which criteria the scenarios formed by integration of the selected utilization alternatives in specified proportions could be assessed, and what the alternative schema obtained could be like? The method of forming a model by simulations, which is developed as an approach to the solutions of the problems that contain uncertain parameters, like what the heating capacities of the reservoirs are, is used in this study. A model is formed with parameters of the heating capacity of Balçova Geothermal Field by employing Monte Carlo Simulation Technique. Here the aim is to find the amount of the heating energy that
Thesis (Doctoral)--Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning, Izmir, 2000Includes... more Thesis (Doctoral)--Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning, Izmir, 2000Includes bibliographical references (leaves: 294-301)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishxx, 400 leavesIt has been known that conventional transportation models and studies have been inadequate to solve the acute transportation problems in the urban areas to date that overwhelmingly those disadvantaged groups face. The major reason is probably that the qualitative and social parameters that could be the real factors in the explanation of the "disadvantagedness" have not been efficiently considered in the modelling because of the uncertainty, and non-normative nature of the models.This thesis study as a normative one offers basically two methodological approach that can be integrated to the normal models: First, the clear-cut defInition of so-called disadvantaged by the cluster analysis method, and second, application of the modelling procedures both for normal case and for the disadvantaged simulatenously by which the determination of policy packages (policy capturing) is probable on the basis ofthe differences between the two models. The improvement of disadvantaged means getting closer to the normality in transportation conditions. With this, it is meant that policy-making to improve the disadvantaged can even start from the modelling stages.As an innovative approach, vanous correlated variables are grouped into "Major" variables in the form of function formulations, which are thought best represent the social/qualitative parameters.In the model runs, latest version of TRANUS (6.0) was used to speed up the modelling process (especially the Trip Assignments). With TRANUS., categorical handling is possible. It is found that there appears a remarkable discrepancy between the two models at the level of Trip Generations (productions), and some different variables could be used in the model for disadvantaged.Finally, in the Correspondence Module (or, category analysis), as of the adopted equity principles, the association of those disadvantaged categories (as transportation categories) with the "disadvantagedness" levels is maintained. This matching process also provided a gauge with which the policies could be produced for the matching transportation (disadvantaged) categories. To see the effectiveness of the method, three simulations are run based on the three policy scenarios where any move towards betterment in the condition of disadvantaged is welcome.As the result of this study, though less than expected, an improvement was observed in the travel conditions of the disadvantaged. It is observed not surprisingly that policy formulations playing around the income related and vehicle ownership variables can be more successful in obtaining better results. More frequent trials with better scenario formulations as well would have ended with better results.Key Words: Transportation Planning, Equity, Transportation Disadvantaged, Cluster Analysis, Category (Correspondence) Analysis, Transportation Ethics, Modelling-, Fuzzy Sets Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation-, Gini Index
Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, 2012
17th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and... more 17th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Logistics Management, HKSTS 2012; Kowloon; Hong Kong; 15 December 2012 through 17 December 2012Though the number of "real ground" PRT projects are few, it can be possible to deduce some hypothetical safety conclusions. For the very optimist assumption that the control algorithms will only "allow" them to operate in non-collision mode on the network, the safety figures are re-evaluated for two urban settings: First (1) is the case where the urban design was fully recreated based on PRT system. The other (2) is the hypothetical PRT system would be embedded into the existing transportation system. The two cases of the safety measures and cost figures are compared to evaluate the opportunities and pitfalls by the application of a PRT system via the scenario analysis. By doing so, after description of the present situation, there comes the construction of possible alternative futures to compare with the present one. It can be deduced that, even if the safety figures of PRT system are hypothetical, PRT-based urban environments promise a lot in terms of safety levels (as far as 80 per cent) with, however, the expense of financial burden for the local government. Yet, for low-cost solution, PRT-embedded urban environments also provide promising results compared to "doing nothing" as far as 30 per cent reductions, in accidents in total and 44 per cent in deaths
İzmir’deki önemli ulaştırma projelerinin kentsel eğilimlere olan etkileri Delphi yöntemi sonuçlar... more İzmir’deki önemli ulaştırma projelerinin kentsel eğilimlere olan etkileri Delphi yöntemi sonuçları temel alınarak analiz edilmiştir. Delphi yöntemine göre yakınsama sağlanmış etkiler, sonrasında daha anlamlı ve özet sonuçlar elde etmek amacıyla toplamdaki etkiler yöntemiyle yeniden değerlendirilmiştir. Yönteme göre, mutlak toplam etkilere (MED), net toplam etkilere (NED) ve en genel anlamda etki yeterlik düzeylerine bakılarak genel sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. En etkili (olumlu/olumsuz yönde) projeler, bütünleştirilmiş raylı toplu taşıma sistemi, mevcut İzmir limanının geliştirilmesi; en fazla etkilenen sosyoekonomik eğilimler ise turizm sektöründeki gelişim, ekonomik gelişme, hava kirliliği ve özel araç kullanım oranı olarak çıkmıştır.The effects of major transportation projects on the urban trends in İzmir were analyzed using the Delphi method. Once the convergence was maintained in the expert opinions, the Delphi results were re-evaluated according to suggested method of total evaluation for obtaining much concise and general results. Accordingly, Absolute Total Impacts (MED), Net Total Impacts (NED) and the impact levels in broader terms were defined. The most effective projects were found to be: Integrated Rail Transportation System, Enhancement of Existing İzmir’s Port. The most impacted trends were: Development in Tourism Sector, Economic Development, Air Pollution and the Rate of Private Car Ownership
All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you... more All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately.
Transportation disadvantaged groups, in the previous studies, are defined as those who are low in... more Transportation disadvantaged groups, in the previous studies, are defined as those who are low income earners, family dependent, limited access to private motor vehicles and public transport services, and also those who oblige to spend relatively more time and money on their trips. Additionally those disable, young and elderly are considered among the natural groups of transportation disadvantaged. Although in general terms this definition seems correct, it is not specific enough to become a common universal definition that could apply to all urban contexts. This paper investigates whether travel difficulty perceptions vary and so does the definition of transportation disadvantaged in socio-culturally different urban contexts. For this investigation the paper undertakes a series of statistical analysis in the case study of Yamaga, Japan, and compares the findings with a previous case study, where the same methodology, hypothesis, and assumptions were utilized in a culturally and demographically different settlement of Aydin, Turkey. After comparing the findings observed in Aydin with the statistical analysis results of Yamaga, this paper reveals that there can be no explicitly detailed universal definition of transportation disadvantaged. The paper concludes by stating characteristics of transportation disadvantage is not globally identical, and policies and solutions that work in a locality may not show the same results in another socio-cultural context.
I would express firstly great thanks to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Güneş GÜR for having accep... more I would express firstly great thanks to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Güneş GÜR for having accepted me to prepare this master thesis. I would also thank to Assist. Prof. Dr. Yavuz DUVARCI for his theoretical support during the process of this study. I would express heartfelt thanks to my dearest Evrim GÜÇER who made a serious contribution and support while preparing the thesis. I am also in debt to Ali Kemal ÇINAR for computer support. I am deeply grateful to; İBŞB staff; Ilgaz CANDEMİR, Emre ORAL, Esin TÜRSEN and Orhan KESLER for their help to enable data access. Ömür SAYGIN for GIS database support. Rose GANDEE, information specialist of APTA, for sending books. Özgür İMRE for his help throughout printing process. Finally, I would like to thank to my fellow Mehmet BAŞOĞLU for his help in land survey.
This study is based on three main questions about the utilization of geothermal energy. The first... more This study is based on three main questions about the utilization of geothermal energy. The first question is how much heat energy the geothermal resource contains? The second one is what the utilization alternatives are for this resource? And the last question is according to which criteria the scenarios formed by integration of the selected utilization alternatives in specified proportions could be assessed, and what the alternative schema obtained could be like? The method of forming a model by simulations, which is developed as an approach to the solutions of the problems that contain uncertain parameters, like what the heating capacities of the reservoirs are, is used in this study. A model is formed with parameters of the heating capacity of Balçova Geothermal Field by employing Monte Carlo Simulation Technique. Here the aim is to find the amount of the heating energy that
Thesis (Doctoral)--Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning, Izmir, 2000Includes... more Thesis (Doctoral)--Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning, Izmir, 2000Includes bibliographical references (leaves: 294-301)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishxx, 400 leavesIt has been known that conventional transportation models and studies have been inadequate to solve the acute transportation problems in the urban areas to date that overwhelmingly those disadvantaged groups face. The major reason is probably that the qualitative and social parameters that could be the real factors in the explanation of the "disadvantagedness" have not been efficiently considered in the modelling because of the uncertainty, and non-normative nature of the models.This thesis study as a normative one offers basically two methodological approach that can be integrated to the normal models: First, the clear-cut defInition of so-called disadvantaged by the cluster analysis method, and second, application of the modelling procedures both for normal case and for the disadvantaged simulatenously by which the determination of policy packages (policy capturing) is probable on the basis ofthe differences between the two models. The improvement of disadvantaged means getting closer to the normality in transportation conditions. With this, it is meant that policy-making to improve the disadvantaged can even start from the modelling stages.As an innovative approach, vanous correlated variables are grouped into "Major" variables in the form of function formulations, which are thought best represent the social/qualitative parameters.In the model runs, latest version of TRANUS (6.0) was used to speed up the modelling process (especially the Trip Assignments). With TRANUS., categorical handling is possible. It is found that there appears a remarkable discrepancy between the two models at the level of Trip Generations (productions), and some different variables could be used in the model for disadvantaged.Finally, in the Correspondence Module (or, category analysis), as of the adopted equity principles, the association of those disadvantaged categories (as transportation categories) with the "disadvantagedness" levels is maintained. This matching process also provided a gauge with which the policies could be produced for the matching transportation (disadvantaged) categories. To see the effectiveness of the method, three simulations are run based on the three policy scenarios where any move towards betterment in the condition of disadvantaged is welcome.As the result of this study, though less than expected, an improvement was observed in the travel conditions of the disadvantaged. It is observed not surprisingly that policy formulations playing around the income related and vehicle ownership variables can be more successful in obtaining better results. More frequent trials with better scenario formulations as well would have ended with better results.Key Words: Transportation Planning, Equity, Transportation Disadvantaged, Cluster Analysis, Category (Correspondence) Analysis, Transportation Ethics, Modelling-, Fuzzy Sets Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation-, Gini Index
One of the most important reasons of the high rate of accidents would largely lend itself to inef... more One of the most important reasons of the high rate of accidents would largely lend itself to ineffective data collection and evaluation process since the necessary information cannot be obtained effectively from the traffic accidents reports (TAR). The discord and dealing with non-relevant data may appear at four levels: (1) Country and Cultural, (2) Institutional and organizational, (3) Data collection, (4) Data analysis and Evaluation. The case findings are consistent with this knowledge put forward in the literature; there is a transparency problem in coordination between the institutions as well as the inefficient TAR data, which is open to manipulation; the problem of under-reporting and inappropriate data storage prevails before the false statistical evaluation methods. The old-fashioned data management structure causes incompatibility with the novel technologies, avoiding timely interventions in reducing accidents and alleviating the fatalities. Transmission of the data to th...
Although the theory has been that transportation planning and land use planning should be integra... more Although the theory has been that transportation planning and land use planning should be integrated, this has not been realized in practice. This review study is an investigation of the reasons behind the lack of coordination and how this might be remedied. The major reason was determined to be that representatives of both disciplines have their own plans implemented through separate procedures, even though they share similar parameters of concern. In general, the (a) ideal situation of a single, integrated plan was not found to be feasible, (b) it was not practical to create or implement plans separately yet simultaneously in a collaborative, coordinated fashion, and so (c) isolated processes for transportation planning and land use planning persist. A familiar cycle is perpetuated and integrated planning continues to be little more than an idea and a principle. Thus, there is a need for a prerequisite that the two disparate yet related planning processes control each other to ensure that steps are taken to achieve more than words and indications of good intention and provide for real integration. In such a relationship, the policy goals of one area (e.g., transport planning) would be considered alongside the defined outputs (performance criteria) of the other (e.g., land use development planning), and specific measures should be evaluated against expected values. Concrete criteria should be created and performance should be tested in modeling studies, particularly in simulations with observable results. Anahtar sözcükler: Arazi kullanım uyumlu ulaşım planlama, arazi kullanım uyumlu ulaşım politikaları, ulaşım uyumlu arazi kullanımı, ulaşım uyumlu planlama politikaları Keywords: Land use integrated transportation planning; land use ıntegrated transport policies; transportation ıntegrated land use planning; transport ıntegrated planning policies.
Transportation models have not been adequate in addressing severe long-term urban transportation ... more Transportation models have not been adequate in addressing severe long-term urban transportation problems that transportation disadvantaged groups overwhelmingly encounter, and the negative impacts of transportation on the disadvantaged have not been effectively considered in the modeling studies. Therefore this paper aims to develop a transportation modeling approach in order to understand the travel patterns of the transportation disadvantaged, and help in developing policies to solve the problems of the disadvantaged. Effectiveness of this approach is tested in a pilot study in Aydin, Turkey. After determining disadvantaged groups by a series of spatial and statistical analyses, the approach is integrated with a travel demand model. The model is run for both disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged populations to examine the differences between their travel behaviors. The findings of the pilot study reveal that almost two-third of the population is disadvantaged, and this modeling approach could particularly be useful in disadvantage-sensitive planning studies to deploy relevant landuse and transportation policies for disadvantaged groups.
The effects of major transportation projects on urban trends in Izmir were analyzed using the Del... more The effects of major transportation projects on urban trends in Izmir were analyzed using the Delphi method. Once convergence was maintained in expert opinions, the Delphi results were re-evaluated according to the suggested method of total evaluation for obtaining much concise and general results. Accordingly, Absolute Total Impacts (ATI), Net Total Impacts (NTI) and the impact levels in broader terms were defined. The most effective projects were found to be: Integrated Rail Transportation System, Enhancement of Existing İzmir Port. The most impacted trends were: Development in Tourism Sector, Economic Development, Air Pollution and the Ratio of Private Car Ownership.
Many issues related to the conservation of urban heritage are closely related to the transit syst... more Many issues related to the conservation of urban heritage are closely related to the transit system and the use of private transportation. Regeneration, revitalization, and/or heritage conservation are not properly managed due to problems arising directly from inconvenient transport solutions that cannot provide or resolve the accessibility and mobility needs of vulnerable groups together with inappropriate space management while indirectly causing economic shrinkage and loss of vitality. Furthermore, even if modern modes of transportation are used, they will cause significant environmental and societal difficulties, making them unsuitable for such sensitive places. This article, using a microsimulation approach, investigates whether a Personal Rapid Transit system is physically applicable, and whether it can meet existing travel requirements to prove that it is sufficient for the needs of local level mobility, and finally whether other environmental/ social impacts such that land use, air pollution, safety, sustainability are positive or negative. As a method, these outputs of the system application are presented as validations of the usefulness of the PRT. Finally, it was found that there is a gain in productivity in terms of mobility as well as other socioeconomic benefits besides the physical applicability of the method. The study's goal is to get the information out about how PRT technology may help produce more ecologically friendly and sustainable solutions while also conserving historical assets.
All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you... more All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately.
Pamukkale University Journal of Engineering Sciences
Transport demand and supply are deemed to determine each other in a cyclic manner. The major idea... more Transport demand and supply are deemed to determine each other in a cyclic manner. The major idea has been that the demand is usually the preceding one. However, in urban cases, usually the land use variables in place of supply interfere this process. Cleansing the land use variables, the regional/national level variable pairs of demand and supply are employed to analyze the cause-effect mechanism. For objectivity, the Granger-causality test (GCT) is used to understand the relationship between transportation demand and supply. The Analyses were made at four dimensions; (a)whether the nexus is one-directional or bidirectional, (b)its significance level, (c)whether demand or supply is the preceding, (d)whether the effects are short-term or long-term. Using the Turkish statistics, the GCT results showed that, in the short/medium run, overwhelmingly the supply variables preceded (mostly in railway mode), mostly unidirectional (one-way causality) manner, however, in the long-run almost no relationship was found. In other transportation modes, no significant relationship is observed. Finally, bi-directional relations were usually observed in suburban rail. The investments then should be made according to known demand. Usually, the effects of supply (especially of railways and roadways) could rather fade away in the long-run. Still, no general statement can be made for the demand/supply causality especially in terms of which one is preceding and of the direction of causality. The chaotic nature of the process reigns over with the changing conditions. Ulaşım arz ve talebinin karşılıklı ve dönüşümlü biçimde birbirlerini belirlediği düşünülür. Aslolan talebin belirlemede öncül olmasıdır. Fakat kentsel bölgelerde, genellikle arz yerine kullanılan arazi kullanım değişkenleri bu sürecin arasına karışmaktadır. Arazi kullanım değişkenlerini temizleyerek, bölgesel/milli arz-talep değişken çiftleri sebep-sonuç mekanizması analizinde kullanılmıştır. Nesnel bir analiz için, Granger-nedensellik testi (GCT), tek-yön ve çift-yön için zaman seri veri kullanılarak, hem öncel olan tarafın ve en etken değişkenlerinin tespitinde kullanılmıştır. Analizler dört seviyede yapılmıştır; (a)bağıntının tek-yönlü veya çift-yönlü olup olmadığı, (b)istatistiki anlamlılık, (c)talep veya arzın başlatıcı olup olmadığı, (d) etkilerin kısa vade veya uzun vade olup olmadığı. Ülkemizin bölge istatistikleri ile GCT sonuçları göstermiştir ki, arz-talep etkileşimi tartışmasına açıklık getirebilecek şekilde tek-yön ilişkide arz tarafı değişkenleri özellikle demiryolları bakımından daha önceldir. Buna mukabil, uzun vadede anlamlı sonuçlar hemen hemen yoktur. Sonuçta, çift-yönlü ilişkiler banliyö tren ulaşımında gözlemlenmiştir. Yatırımlar mutlaka talep bilgisi doğrultusunda olmalıdır. Genellikle, arz etkileri (bilhassa demiryolu ve karayolunda) uzun vadede kaybolma eğilimindedir. Hala, arz/talep nedenselliğinde hangisinin başat olduğu ve nedensellik yönlenimi konusunda genel bir hükme varılamamaktadır. Değişen koşullara göre sürecin karmaşık doğası etkin olmaktadır.
Using simulations and perform predictions with results of the simulation to discover the changes ... more Using simulations and perform predictions with results of the simulation to discover the changes in cities over time, the direction of growth and tendency of change patterns is pretty vital for an effective planning study. In the current literature, the sprawl of cities to their closer environs have in general been modeled by complex methods such as Cellular Automata, Multi-agent Systems and Artificial Neural Networks. Cellular Automata is one of the most common of these methods. Urban spatial change and its simulation by GIS-based Cellular Automata (GCA) is a trending issue. Such mega-projects as the bridge and tube-tunnel projects, etc., which are at the agenda of our country, are supposed to have quite important socioeconomic and environmental impacts as well as the importance given to the traffic relief and transportation. These big project are known to have the secondary and synergetic impacts on urban rental values, too, and also positive and negative effects on the planning process.However, estimation of urban rent impacts of mega-projects through the method is quite new. Using data of current land values and realtor opinions on determining rent parameters, rent impacts were estimated for Izmir Bay Tube-Tunnel Project (IBTT) for three scenarios and 5-year periods after 2016. The method utility was tested for Inciraltı region, and which locations would be significantly affected by the IBTT were detected. A useful instrument that the planning can use to know rent impacts of big projects, which can be a software application in the future, was developed. ÖZ Bir kentin zaman içerisinde uğradığı değişimin, gelişme yönünün ve arazi kullanımlarındaki değişim eğilimlerinin simülasyonlarla belirlenmesi ile geleceğe yönelik tahminler yapmak etkili bir planlama çalışmasında oldukça önemlidir. Mevcut literatürde, kentlerin çevreye yayılımı; Hücresel Özişlem, Çok Ajanlı Sistemler, Yapay Sinir Ağları gibi karmaşık sistem modelleme teknikleri ile modellenmektedir. Hücresel Özişlem bu yöntemlerin en çok uygulananlarından biridir. Kentsel mekanın zamanda uğradığı değişim ve CBS'de Hücresel Özişlem (HÖ) yöntemiyle tahminlenmesi önemi artan bir konu olmuştur. Ülkemiz gündeminde yer alan köprü, tüp geçit, vb. projelerin kendileri kadar önemli ekonomik, sosyal ve çevresel etkileri vardır. Özellikle bu tür mega-projelerin kentsel rantlara olduğu kadar, planlama süreçlerine de olumlu/ olumsuz ikincil ve sinerjik etkileri bulunmaktadır. Bu tür etkilerin gelecekte ne olacağı da planlama açısından aynı derecede önemlidir. Ancak, mega-projelerin kentsel ranta söz konusu yöntemle etkisinin ele alınması oldukça yenidir. Rayiç bedel ve rantı belirleyen parametreler hakkında emlakçı görüşleri veri alınarak İzmir İnciraltı'ndan geçmesi planlanan İzmir Körfez Tüp Geçiş Projesinin (İKTG) HÖ ile üç olası senaryo bazında ve 2016'dan sonra beşer yıllık dönemlerde rant etkileri simüle edilmiştir. Yöntemin işleyiş sınaması yapılmış, İnciraltı bölgesindeki rantların geleceğe ilişkin verisi üretilmiştir. İKTG'nin, bölgenin hangi noktalarına güçlü etkide bulunabileceği gözlemlenmiştir. Böylece, büyük projelerin olası rant etkisi ile ilgili planlamanın yararlanabileceği ve ileride yazılıma dönüştürülebilecek elverişli bir araç geliştirilmiştir.
In an earlier experimental transportation modeling study on transport and the disadvantaged, cali... more In an earlier experimental transportation modeling study on transport and the disadvantaged, calibrated in a small town in Turkey, it was observed that an integrated transport planning model for the disadvantaged was likely. The findings were observable at all stages of the sequential modeling; however, with slight differences compared to 'normal' model results. This paper aims to show that the method of policy capture could be possible based on these differences, and could help improve the adverse conditions of the disadvantaged. The analysis method, a category analysis based on cluster analysis results, used TRANUS software to run simulations for the 3 disadvantaged types: socioeconomic, spatial, and positional. Simulation results demonstrate that the socioeconomic dimension was the best for policy capture.
I would express firstly great thanks to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Güneş GÜR for having accep... more I would express firstly great thanks to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Güneş GÜR for having accepted me to prepare this master thesis. I would also thank to Assist. Prof. Dr. Yavuz DUVARCI for his theoretical support during the process of this study. I would express heartfelt thanks to my dearest Evrim GÜÇER who made a serious contribution and support while preparing the thesis. I am also in debt to Ali Kemal ÇINAR for computer support. I am deeply grateful to; İBŞB staff; Ilgaz CANDEMİR, Emre ORAL, Esin TÜRSEN and Orhan KESLER for their help to enable data access. Ömür SAYGIN for GIS database support. Rose GANDEE, information specialist of APTA, for sending books. Özgür İMRE for his help throughout printing process. Finally, I would like to thank to my fellow Mehmet BAŞOĞLU for his help in land survey.
This study is based on three main questions about the utilization of geothermal energy. The first... more This study is based on three main questions about the utilization of geothermal energy. The first question is how much heat energy the geothermal resource contains? The second one is what the utilization alternatives are for this resource? And the last question is according to which criteria the scenarios formed by integration of the selected utilization alternatives in specified proportions could be assessed, and what the alternative schema obtained could be like? The method of forming a model by simulations, which is developed as an approach to the solutions of the problems that contain uncertain parameters, like what the heating capacities of the reservoirs are, is used in this study. A model is formed with parameters of the heating capacity of Balçova Geothermal Field by employing Monte Carlo Simulation Technique. Here the aim is to find the amount of the heating energy that
Thesis (Doctoral)--Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning, Izmir, 2000Includes... more Thesis (Doctoral)--Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning, Izmir, 2000Includes bibliographical references (leaves: 294-301)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishxx, 400 leavesIt has been known that conventional transportation models and studies have been inadequate to solve the acute transportation problems in the urban areas to date that overwhelmingly those disadvantaged groups face. The major reason is probably that the qualitative and social parameters that could be the real factors in the explanation of the "disadvantagedness" have not been efficiently considered in the modelling because of the uncertainty, and non-normative nature of the models.This thesis study as a normative one offers basically two methodological approach that can be integrated to the normal models: First, the clear-cut defInition of so-called disadvantaged by the cluster analysis method, and second, application of the modelling procedures both for normal case and for the disadvantaged simulatenously by which the determination of policy packages (policy capturing) is probable on the basis ofthe differences between the two models. The improvement of disadvantaged means getting closer to the normality in transportation conditions. With this, it is meant that policy-making to improve the disadvantaged can even start from the modelling stages.As an innovative approach, vanous correlated variables are grouped into "Major" variables in the form of function formulations, which are thought best represent the social/qualitative parameters.In the model runs, latest version of TRANUS (6.0) was used to speed up the modelling process (especially the Trip Assignments). With TRANUS., categorical handling is possible. It is found that there appears a remarkable discrepancy between the two models at the level of Trip Generations (productions), and some different variables could be used in the model for disadvantaged.Finally, in the Correspondence Module (or, category analysis), as of the adopted equity principles, the association of those disadvantaged categories (as transportation categories) with the "disadvantagedness" levels is maintained. This matching process also provided a gauge with which the policies could be produced for the matching transportation (disadvantaged) categories. To see the effectiveness of the method, three simulations are run based on the three policy scenarios where any move towards betterment in the condition of disadvantaged is welcome.As the result of this study, though less than expected, an improvement was observed in the travel conditions of the disadvantaged. It is observed not surprisingly that policy formulations playing around the income related and vehicle ownership variables can be more successful in obtaining better results. More frequent trials with better scenario formulations as well would have ended with better results.Key Words: Transportation Planning, Equity, Transportation Disadvantaged, Cluster Analysis, Category (Correspondence) Analysis, Transportation Ethics, Modelling-, Fuzzy Sets Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation-, Gini Index
Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, 2012
17th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and... more 17th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Logistics Management, HKSTS 2012; Kowloon; Hong Kong; 15 December 2012 through 17 December 2012Though the number of "real ground" PRT projects are few, it can be possible to deduce some hypothetical safety conclusions. For the very optimist assumption that the control algorithms will only "allow" them to operate in non-collision mode on the network, the safety figures are re-evaluated for two urban settings: First (1) is the case where the urban design was fully recreated based on PRT system. The other (2) is the hypothetical PRT system would be embedded into the existing transportation system. The two cases of the safety measures and cost figures are compared to evaluate the opportunities and pitfalls by the application of a PRT system via the scenario analysis. By doing so, after description of the present situation, there comes the construction of possible alternative futures to compare with the present one. It can be deduced that, even if the safety figures of PRT system are hypothetical, PRT-based urban environments promise a lot in terms of safety levels (as far as 80 per cent) with, however, the expense of financial burden for the local government. Yet, for low-cost solution, PRT-embedded urban environments also provide promising results compared to "doing nothing" as far as 30 per cent reductions, in accidents in total and 44 per cent in deaths
İzmir’deki önemli ulaştırma projelerinin kentsel eğilimlere olan etkileri Delphi yöntemi sonuçlar... more İzmir’deki önemli ulaştırma projelerinin kentsel eğilimlere olan etkileri Delphi yöntemi sonuçları temel alınarak analiz edilmiştir. Delphi yöntemine göre yakınsama sağlanmış etkiler, sonrasında daha anlamlı ve özet sonuçlar elde etmek amacıyla toplamdaki etkiler yöntemiyle yeniden değerlendirilmiştir. Yönteme göre, mutlak toplam etkilere (MED), net toplam etkilere (NED) ve en genel anlamda etki yeterlik düzeylerine bakılarak genel sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. En etkili (olumlu/olumsuz yönde) projeler, bütünleştirilmiş raylı toplu taşıma sistemi, mevcut İzmir limanının geliştirilmesi; en fazla etkilenen sosyoekonomik eğilimler ise turizm sektöründeki gelişim, ekonomik gelişme, hava kirliliği ve özel araç kullanım oranı olarak çıkmıştır.The effects of major transportation projects on the urban trends in İzmir were analyzed using the Delphi method. Once the convergence was maintained in the expert opinions, the Delphi results were re-evaluated according to suggested method of total evaluation for obtaining much concise and general results. Accordingly, Absolute Total Impacts (MED), Net Total Impacts (NED) and the impact levels in broader terms were defined. The most effective projects were found to be: Integrated Rail Transportation System, Enhancement of Existing İzmir’s Port. The most impacted trends were: Development in Tourism Sector, Economic Development, Air Pollution and the Rate of Private Car Ownership
All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you... more All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately.
Transportation disadvantaged groups, in the previous studies, are defined as those who are low in... more Transportation disadvantaged groups, in the previous studies, are defined as those who are low income earners, family dependent, limited access to private motor vehicles and public transport services, and also those who oblige to spend relatively more time and money on their trips. Additionally those disable, young and elderly are considered among the natural groups of transportation disadvantaged. Although in general terms this definition seems correct, it is not specific enough to become a common universal definition that could apply to all urban contexts. This paper investigates whether travel difficulty perceptions vary and so does the definition of transportation disadvantaged in socio-culturally different urban contexts. For this investigation the paper undertakes a series of statistical analysis in the case study of Yamaga, Japan, and compares the findings with a previous case study, where the same methodology, hypothesis, and assumptions were utilized in a culturally and demographically different settlement of Aydin, Turkey. After comparing the findings observed in Aydin with the statistical analysis results of Yamaga, this paper reveals that there can be no explicitly detailed universal definition of transportation disadvantaged. The paper concludes by stating characteristics of transportation disadvantage is not globally identical, and policies and solutions that work in a locality may not show the same results in another socio-cultural context.
I would express firstly great thanks to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Güneş GÜR for having accep... more I would express firstly great thanks to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Güneş GÜR for having accepted me to prepare this master thesis. I would also thank to Assist. Prof. Dr. Yavuz DUVARCI for his theoretical support during the process of this study. I would express heartfelt thanks to my dearest Evrim GÜÇER who made a serious contribution and support while preparing the thesis. I am also in debt to Ali Kemal ÇINAR for computer support. I am deeply grateful to; İBŞB staff; Ilgaz CANDEMİR, Emre ORAL, Esin TÜRSEN and Orhan KESLER for their help to enable data access. Ömür SAYGIN for GIS database support. Rose GANDEE, information specialist of APTA, for sending books. Özgür İMRE for his help throughout printing process. Finally, I would like to thank to my fellow Mehmet BAŞOĞLU for his help in land survey.
This study is based on three main questions about the utilization of geothermal energy. The first... more This study is based on three main questions about the utilization of geothermal energy. The first question is how much heat energy the geothermal resource contains? The second one is what the utilization alternatives are for this resource? And the last question is according to which criteria the scenarios formed by integration of the selected utilization alternatives in specified proportions could be assessed, and what the alternative schema obtained could be like? The method of forming a model by simulations, which is developed as an approach to the solutions of the problems that contain uncertain parameters, like what the heating capacities of the reservoirs are, is used in this study. A model is formed with parameters of the heating capacity of Balçova Geothermal Field by employing Monte Carlo Simulation Technique. Here the aim is to find the amount of the heating energy that
Thesis (Doctoral)--Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning, Izmir, 2000Includes... more Thesis (Doctoral)--Izmir Institute of Technology, City and Regional Planning, Izmir, 2000Includes bibliographical references (leaves: 294-301)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishxx, 400 leavesIt has been known that conventional transportation models and studies have been inadequate to solve the acute transportation problems in the urban areas to date that overwhelmingly those disadvantaged groups face. The major reason is probably that the qualitative and social parameters that could be the real factors in the explanation of the "disadvantagedness" have not been efficiently considered in the modelling because of the uncertainty, and non-normative nature of the models.This thesis study as a normative one offers basically two methodological approach that can be integrated to the normal models: First, the clear-cut defInition of so-called disadvantaged by the cluster analysis method, and second, application of the modelling procedures both for normal case and for the disadvantaged simulatenously by which the determination of policy packages (policy capturing) is probable on the basis ofthe differences between the two models. The improvement of disadvantaged means getting closer to the normality in transportation conditions. With this, it is meant that policy-making to improve the disadvantaged can even start from the modelling stages.As an innovative approach, vanous correlated variables are grouped into "Major" variables in the form of function formulations, which are thought best represent the social/qualitative parameters.In the model runs, latest version of TRANUS (6.0) was used to speed up the modelling process (especially the Trip Assignments). With TRANUS., categorical handling is possible. It is found that there appears a remarkable discrepancy between the two models at the level of Trip Generations (productions), and some different variables could be used in the model for disadvantaged.Finally, in the Correspondence Module (or, category analysis), as of the adopted equity principles, the association of those disadvantaged categories (as transportation categories) with the "disadvantagedness" levels is maintained. This matching process also provided a gauge with which the policies could be produced for the matching transportation (disadvantaged) categories. To see the effectiveness of the method, three simulations are run based on the three policy scenarios where any move towards betterment in the condition of disadvantaged is welcome.As the result of this study, though less than expected, an improvement was observed in the travel conditions of the disadvantaged. It is observed not surprisingly that policy formulations playing around the income related and vehicle ownership variables can be more successful in obtaining better results. More frequent trials with better scenario formulations as well would have ended with better results.Key Words: Transportation Planning, Equity, Transportation Disadvantaged, Cluster Analysis, Category (Correspondence) Analysis, Transportation Ethics, Modelling-, Fuzzy Sets Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation-, Gini Index
One of the most important reasons of the high rate of accidents would largely lend itself to inef... more One of the most important reasons of the high rate of accidents would largely lend itself to ineffective data collection and evaluation process since the necessary information cannot be obtained effectively from the traffic accidents reports (TAR). The discord and dealing with non-relevant data may appear at four levels: (1) Country and Cultural, (2) Institutional and organizational, (3) Data collection, (4) Data analysis and Evaluation. The case findings are consistent with this knowledge put forward in the literature; there is a transparency problem in coordination between the institutions as well as the inefficient TAR data, which is open to manipulation; the problem of under-reporting and inappropriate data storage prevails before the false statistical evaluation methods. The old-fashioned data management structure causes incompatibility with the novel technologies, avoiding timely interventions in reducing accidents and alleviating the fatalities. Transmission of the data to th...
Although the theory has been that transportation planning and land use planning should be integra... more Although the theory has been that transportation planning and land use planning should be integrated, this has not been realized in practice. This review study is an investigation of the reasons behind the lack of coordination and how this might be remedied. The major reason was determined to be that representatives of both disciplines have their own plans implemented through separate procedures, even though they share similar parameters of concern. In general, the (a) ideal situation of a single, integrated plan was not found to be feasible, (b) it was not practical to create or implement plans separately yet simultaneously in a collaborative, coordinated fashion, and so (c) isolated processes for transportation planning and land use planning persist. A familiar cycle is perpetuated and integrated planning continues to be little more than an idea and a principle. Thus, there is a need for a prerequisite that the two disparate yet related planning processes control each other to ensure that steps are taken to achieve more than words and indications of good intention and provide for real integration. In such a relationship, the policy goals of one area (e.g., transport planning) would be considered alongside the defined outputs (performance criteria) of the other (e.g., land use development planning), and specific measures should be evaluated against expected values. Concrete criteria should be created and performance should be tested in modeling studies, particularly in simulations with observable results. Anahtar sözcükler: Arazi kullanım uyumlu ulaşım planlama, arazi kullanım uyumlu ulaşım politikaları, ulaşım uyumlu arazi kullanımı, ulaşım uyumlu planlama politikaları Keywords: Land use integrated transportation planning; land use ıntegrated transport policies; transportation ıntegrated land use planning; transport ıntegrated planning policies.
Transportation models have not been adequate in addressing severe long-term urban transportation ... more Transportation models have not been adequate in addressing severe long-term urban transportation problems that transportation disadvantaged groups overwhelmingly encounter, and the negative impacts of transportation on the disadvantaged have not been effectively considered in the modeling studies. Therefore this paper aims to develop a transportation modeling approach in order to understand the travel patterns of the transportation disadvantaged, and help in developing policies to solve the problems of the disadvantaged. Effectiveness of this approach is tested in a pilot study in Aydin, Turkey. After determining disadvantaged groups by a series of spatial and statistical analyses, the approach is integrated with a travel demand model. The model is run for both disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged populations to examine the differences between their travel behaviors. The findings of the pilot study reveal that almost two-third of the population is disadvantaged, and this modeling approach could particularly be useful in disadvantage-sensitive planning studies to deploy relevant landuse and transportation policies for disadvantaged groups.
The effects of major transportation projects on urban trends in Izmir were analyzed using the Del... more The effects of major transportation projects on urban trends in Izmir were analyzed using the Delphi method. Once convergence was maintained in expert opinions, the Delphi results were re-evaluated according to the suggested method of total evaluation for obtaining much concise and general results. Accordingly, Absolute Total Impacts (ATI), Net Total Impacts (NTI) and the impact levels in broader terms were defined. The most effective projects were found to be: Integrated Rail Transportation System, Enhancement of Existing İzmir Port. The most impacted trends were: Development in Tourism Sector, Economic Development, Air Pollution and the Ratio of Private Car Ownership.
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