Dr Benjamin Warr is a soil scientist, ecological economist and inter-disciplinary researcher, Executive in Residence with the INSEAD Social Innovation Centre. He lives and works in Zambia. He is co-author of "The Economic Growth Engine", with Professor R.U.Ayres. Supervisors: Robert Ayres and Luk Van Wassenhove
Learning or experience curves were fit to historical time series of the technical efficiency of p... more Learning or experience curves were fit to historical time series of the technical efficiency of primary exergy conversion from the US 1900-2000 for the major fossil fuel energy carriers, coal, oil and gas and for all natural resource primary exergy (UR). The logistic and the bilogistic models were compared. The bilogistic is useful for characterising a system, which pauses between growth phases and is therefore suitable to describe the aggregate technical efficiency, the sum of technological progress in many unrelated processes. Each ...
The main objective of the study was to assess the economic value of Zambia’s forest ecosystem ser... more The main objective of the study was to assess the economic value of Zambia’s forest ecosystem services. The study estimates that, when ecosystem services provided by forests are accounted for, forests make a direct contribution to the national economy equivalent to about 4.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), which rises to 6.3% with the application of multiplier effects.
The history of growth theories is reviewed. A semi-empirical endogenous growth theory is proposed... more The history of growth theories is reviewed. A semi-empirical endogenous growth theory is proposed. It is based on a model of the economy as a multi-stage materials processing system. Growth is simulated by a two-parameter production function with two traditional factors, labor and capital, and a non-traditional factor. The non-traditional factor can be interpreted asuseful'(physical) work output, as distinguished from energy (exergy) inputs. It is calculated from energy (exergy) inputs multiplied by the average energy ...
This analysis characterizes century-scale trends in exergy efficiency in Japan. Exergy efficiency... more This analysis characterizes century-scale trends in exergy efficiency in Japan. Exergy efficiency captures the degree to which energy inputs (such as coal) are converted into useful work (such as electricity or power to move a vehicle). This approach enables the estimation of net efficiencies which aggregate different technologies. Sectors specifically analyzed are electricity generation, transport, steel production, and residential space heating. One result is that the aggregate exergy efficiency of the Japanese economy declined slightly over the last half of the 20th century, reaching a high of around 38% in the late 1970s and falling to around 33% by 1998. The explanation for this is that while individual technologies improved dramatically over the century, less exergy-efficient ones were progressively adopted, yielding a net stabilization or decline. In the electricity sector, for instance, adoption of hydropower was followed by fossil-fired plants and then by nuclear power, each technology being successively less efficient from an exergy perspective. The underlying dynamic of this trend is analogous to declining ore grades in the mining sector. Increasing demand for exergy services requires expended utilization of resources from which it is more difficult to extract utility (e.g., falling water versus coal). We term this phenomenon efficiency dilution.
Concerns about global climate change require estimates of various components of atmospheric and t... more Concerns about global climate change require estimates of various components of atmospheric and terrestrial carbon. This is particularly important with respect to terrestrial inorganic carbon, which is a major repository of global carbon dioxide (CO2). Global and regional estimates of inorganic carbon, particularly carbonates, are unreliable and in many cases do not take into account the spatial variability of the occurrence and amount of carbonates in the soil horizons or examine the spatial uncertainty of the predictions. ...
International Journal of Sustainable Engineering, 2010
It gives me great pleasure to review this important book. I recommend it highly to any physicist ... more It gives me great pleasure to review this important book. I recommend it highly to any physicist with an interest or curiosity about this economy thing within which we operate... There is no excuse not to get this invaluable volume onto your bookshelf. Simon Roberts, Institute of Physics Energy Group This book addresses a very important topic, namely economic growth analysis from the angle of energy and material flows. The treatment is well balanced in terms of research and interpretation of the broader literature. The book not ...
Forests play a crucial role in enhancing human well-being and in sustaining the economy of Zambia... more Forests play a crucial role in enhancing human well-being and in sustaining the economy of Zambia. They contribute to economic growth, employment, wealth, export revenues, a stable supply of clean water, recrea on and tourism opportuni es, as well as essen al building ma- terials and energy for a wide range of economic sectors. However, Zambia has one of the highest per capita deforesta on rates in Africa. The Gov- ernment’s e orts to reduce emissions from de- foresta on and forest degrada on and increase the role of conserva on, sustainable manage- ment of forests and enhancement of forest car- bon stocks (REDD+) have the poten al to halt the rate of deforesta on in the country. This can happen if the country manages to suc- cessfully implement its na onal strategy to re- duce emissions from deforesta on and forest degrada on, and, thereby, leverage nancing and investments opportuni es for REDD+ im- plementa on including through results-based payments. Ac ons to reduce deforesta on could be an important catalysing factor for the coun- try to transi on to a Green Economy, especial- ly if REDD+ implementa on is embedded in the country’s ambi ous development and economic objec ves. Thus, the poten al is great for the forestry sector to play a very important role in the country achieving its Vision 2030 goals. This report provides an economic ra onale for priori zing REDD+ implementa on by showing the signi cant economic bene ts of doing so. Forest ecosystem services that were quan ed in this study and which are currently not account- ed for in the Gross Domes c Product (GDP) such as sediment reten on and erosion control, ecot- ourism, pollina on services and carbon storage, have an economic value equivalent to at least 2.5 per cent of the GDP of Zambia. This represents an undervalua on of 40 to 68 per cent of the to- tal value added of provisioning services such as industrial roundwood, charcoal, rewood, wood processing, pulp and paper and non-wood forest products. With the inclusion of these addi onal services, the contribu on of forests to the Zam- bian economy rises from 3.8 per cent to 6.3 per cent. The formal and informal contribu on of the forestry sector also supports over 1 million jobs related to fuelwood, non-wood forest prod- ucts and ecotourism, which means that forests support over 60 per cent of rural Zambian house- holds. At the regional level, Zambia’s strategic loca- on makes it an important country within the sub-region in rela on to REDD+ and associated trans-boundary ecosystems. These ecosystems become even more important as Zambia holds about 30-40 per cent of the water resources in Southern Africa and shares trans-boundary wa- ter resources with eight other countries. At the interna onal level, Zambia has great poten al to promote key interna onal development goals, such as reducing carbon emission, through the implementa on of targets that will be outlined in its Na onal REDD+ Strategy. This work, undertaken by UNEP’s Ecosystem Services Economics Unit in associa on with the Zambian Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental Protec on, is part of a range of ac vi es o ered by the UN-REDD Programme to support the Government of Zambia by ena- bling it to build the economic case for the imple- menta on of key policies and measures for the sustainable management and conserva on of the country’s forest ecosystems as part of REDD+ implementa on. Such measures could include strengthening forest management and enforce- ment of laws on illegal mber harves ng, sup- por ng community land tenure and strengthen- ing community-based forest stewardship. Other means include improving the e ciency and sus- tainability of agricultural prac ces, increasing ac- cess to incen ves and income genera ng ac v- i es that depend upon forest conserva on and managing the demand for charcoal produc on. It is envisioned that these ndings will further strengthen the resolve of the Government of Zambia to address the drivers of deforesta on and forest degrada on, and to implement the Na onal REDD+ Strategy as part of the coun- try’s broader goals to achieve an Inclusive Green Economy.
Abstract The history of growth theories is reviewed. A semi-empirical endogenous growth theory is... more Abstract The history of growth theories is reviewed. A semi-empirical endogenous growth theory is proposed. It is based on a model of the economy as a multi-stage materials processing system. Growth is simulated by a two-parameter production function with two traditional factors, labor and capital, and a non-traditional factor. The non-traditional factor can be interpreted asuseful'(physical) work output, as distinguished from energy (exergy) inputs.
This paper tests several related hypothesis for explaining US economic growth since 1900. It begi... more This paper tests several related hypothesis for explaining US economic growth since 1900. It begins from the belief that consumption of natural resources—especially energy (or, more precisely, exergy) has been, and still is, an important factor of production and driver of economic growth. However the major result of the paper is that it is not 'raw'energy (exergy) as an input, but exergy converted to useful (physical) work that—along with capital and (human) labor—really explains output and drives long-term economic growth.
Abstract According to neoclassical economic theory, growth can–and will–continue at past rates re... more Abstract According to neoclassical economic theory, growth can–and will–continue at past rates regardless of the availability or cost of energy. This bizarre conclusion follows from the widespread assumption in economic models that capital and labor are the only important factors of production. That assumption can be traced to a textbook “theorem” which says that the output elasticity of energy in the economy must be proportional to the cost share of energy in the GDP.
Learning or experience curves were fit to historical time series of the technical efficiency of p... more Learning or experience curves were fit to historical time series of the technical efficiency of primary exergy conversion from the US 1900-2000 for the major fossil fuel energy carriers, coal, oil and gas and for all natural resource primary exergy (UR). The logistic and the bilogistic models were compared. The bilogistic is useful for characterising a system, which pauses between growth phases and is therefore suitable to describe the aggregate technical efficiency, the sum of technological progress in many unrelated processes. Each ...
The main objective of the study was to assess the economic value of Zambia’s forest ecosystem ser... more The main objective of the study was to assess the economic value of Zambia’s forest ecosystem services. The study estimates that, when ecosystem services provided by forests are accounted for, forests make a direct contribution to the national economy equivalent to about 4.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), which rises to 6.3% with the application of multiplier effects.
The history of growth theories is reviewed. A semi-empirical endogenous growth theory is proposed... more The history of growth theories is reviewed. A semi-empirical endogenous growth theory is proposed. It is based on a model of the economy as a multi-stage materials processing system. Growth is simulated by a two-parameter production function with two traditional factors, labor and capital, and a non-traditional factor. The non-traditional factor can be interpreted asuseful'(physical) work output, as distinguished from energy (exergy) inputs. It is calculated from energy (exergy) inputs multiplied by the average energy ...
This analysis characterizes century-scale trends in exergy efficiency in Japan. Exergy efficiency... more This analysis characterizes century-scale trends in exergy efficiency in Japan. Exergy efficiency captures the degree to which energy inputs (such as coal) are converted into useful work (such as electricity or power to move a vehicle). This approach enables the estimation of net efficiencies which aggregate different technologies. Sectors specifically analyzed are electricity generation, transport, steel production, and residential space heating. One result is that the aggregate exergy efficiency of the Japanese economy declined slightly over the last half of the 20th century, reaching a high of around 38% in the late 1970s and falling to around 33% by 1998. The explanation for this is that while individual technologies improved dramatically over the century, less exergy-efficient ones were progressively adopted, yielding a net stabilization or decline. In the electricity sector, for instance, adoption of hydropower was followed by fossil-fired plants and then by nuclear power, each technology being successively less efficient from an exergy perspective. The underlying dynamic of this trend is analogous to declining ore grades in the mining sector. Increasing demand for exergy services requires expended utilization of resources from which it is more difficult to extract utility (e.g., falling water versus coal). We term this phenomenon efficiency dilution.
Concerns about global climate change require estimates of various components of atmospheric and t... more Concerns about global climate change require estimates of various components of atmospheric and terrestrial carbon. This is particularly important with respect to terrestrial inorganic carbon, which is a major repository of global carbon dioxide (CO2). Global and regional estimates of inorganic carbon, particularly carbonates, are unreliable and in many cases do not take into account the spatial variability of the occurrence and amount of carbonates in the soil horizons or examine the spatial uncertainty of the predictions. ...
International Journal of Sustainable Engineering, 2010
It gives me great pleasure to review this important book. I recommend it highly to any physicist ... more It gives me great pleasure to review this important book. I recommend it highly to any physicist with an interest or curiosity about this economy thing within which we operate... There is no excuse not to get this invaluable volume onto your bookshelf. Simon Roberts, Institute of Physics Energy Group This book addresses a very important topic, namely economic growth analysis from the angle of energy and material flows. The treatment is well balanced in terms of research and interpretation of the broader literature. The book not ...
Forests play a crucial role in enhancing human well-being and in sustaining the economy of Zambia... more Forests play a crucial role in enhancing human well-being and in sustaining the economy of Zambia. They contribute to economic growth, employment, wealth, export revenues, a stable supply of clean water, recrea on and tourism opportuni es, as well as essen al building ma- terials and energy for a wide range of economic sectors. However, Zambia has one of the highest per capita deforesta on rates in Africa. The Gov- ernment’s e orts to reduce emissions from de- foresta on and forest degrada on and increase the role of conserva on, sustainable manage- ment of forests and enhancement of forest car- bon stocks (REDD+) have the poten al to halt the rate of deforesta on in the country. This can happen if the country manages to suc- cessfully implement its na onal strategy to re- duce emissions from deforesta on and forest degrada on, and, thereby, leverage nancing and investments opportuni es for REDD+ im- plementa on including through results-based payments. Ac ons to reduce deforesta on could be an important catalysing factor for the coun- try to transi on to a Green Economy, especial- ly if REDD+ implementa on is embedded in the country’s ambi ous development and economic objec ves. Thus, the poten al is great for the forestry sector to play a very important role in the country achieving its Vision 2030 goals. This report provides an economic ra onale for priori zing REDD+ implementa on by showing the signi cant economic bene ts of doing so. Forest ecosystem services that were quan ed in this study and which are currently not account- ed for in the Gross Domes c Product (GDP) such as sediment reten on and erosion control, ecot- ourism, pollina on services and carbon storage, have an economic value equivalent to at least 2.5 per cent of the GDP of Zambia. This represents an undervalua on of 40 to 68 per cent of the to- tal value added of provisioning services such as industrial roundwood, charcoal, rewood, wood processing, pulp and paper and non-wood forest products. With the inclusion of these addi onal services, the contribu on of forests to the Zam- bian economy rises from 3.8 per cent to 6.3 per cent. The formal and informal contribu on of the forestry sector also supports over 1 million jobs related to fuelwood, non-wood forest prod- ucts and ecotourism, which means that forests support over 60 per cent of rural Zambian house- holds. At the regional level, Zambia’s strategic loca- on makes it an important country within the sub-region in rela on to REDD+ and associated trans-boundary ecosystems. These ecosystems become even more important as Zambia holds about 30-40 per cent of the water resources in Southern Africa and shares trans-boundary wa- ter resources with eight other countries. At the interna onal level, Zambia has great poten al to promote key interna onal development goals, such as reducing carbon emission, through the implementa on of targets that will be outlined in its Na onal REDD+ Strategy. This work, undertaken by UNEP’s Ecosystem Services Economics Unit in associa on with the Zambian Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental Protec on, is part of a range of ac vi es o ered by the UN-REDD Programme to support the Government of Zambia by ena- bling it to build the economic case for the imple- menta on of key policies and measures for the sustainable management and conserva on of the country’s forest ecosystems as part of REDD+ implementa on. Such measures could include strengthening forest management and enforce- ment of laws on illegal mber harves ng, sup- por ng community land tenure and strengthen- ing community-based forest stewardship. Other means include improving the e ciency and sus- tainability of agricultural prac ces, increasing ac- cess to incen ves and income genera ng ac v- i es that depend upon forest conserva on and managing the demand for charcoal produc on. It is envisioned that these ndings will further strengthen the resolve of the Government of Zambia to address the drivers of deforesta on and forest degrada on, and to implement the Na onal REDD+ Strategy as part of the coun- try’s broader goals to achieve an Inclusive Green Economy.
Abstract The history of growth theories is reviewed. A semi-empirical endogenous growth theory is... more Abstract The history of growth theories is reviewed. A semi-empirical endogenous growth theory is proposed. It is based on a model of the economy as a multi-stage materials processing system. Growth is simulated by a two-parameter production function with two traditional factors, labor and capital, and a non-traditional factor. The non-traditional factor can be interpreted asuseful'(physical) work output, as distinguished from energy (exergy) inputs.
This paper tests several related hypothesis for explaining US economic growth since 1900. It begi... more This paper tests several related hypothesis for explaining US economic growth since 1900. It begins from the belief that consumption of natural resources—especially energy (or, more precisely, exergy) has been, and still is, an important factor of production and driver of economic growth. However the major result of the paper is that it is not 'raw'energy (exergy) as an input, but exergy converted to useful (physical) work that—along with capital and (human) labor—really explains output and drives long-term economic growth.
Abstract According to neoclassical economic theory, growth can–and will–continue at past rates re... more Abstract According to neoclassical economic theory, growth can–and will–continue at past rates regardless of the availability or cost of energy. This bizarre conclusion follows from the widespread assumption in economic models that capital and labor are the only important factors of production. That assumption can be traced to a textbook “theorem” which says that the output elasticity of energy in the economy must be proportional to the cost share of energy in the GDP.
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Papers by Benjamin Warr
were progressively adopted, yielding a net stabilization or decline. In the electricity sector, for instance, adoption of hydropower was followed by fossil-fired plants and then by nuclear power, each technology being successively less efficient from an exergy perspective. The underlying dynamic of this trend is analogous to declining ore grades in the mining sector. Increasing demand for exergy services requires expended utilization of resources from which it is more difficult to extract utility (e.g., falling water versus coal). We term this phenomenon efficiency dilution.
This can happen if the country manages to suc- cessfully implement its na onal strategy to re- duce emissions from deforesta on and forest degrada on, and, thereby, leverage nancing and investments opportuni es for REDD+ im- plementa on including through results-based payments. Ac ons to reduce deforesta on could be an important catalysing factor for the coun- try to transi on to a Green Economy, especial- ly if REDD+ implementa on is embedded in the country’s ambi ous development and economic objec ves. Thus, the poten al is great for the forestry sector to play a very important role in the country achieving its Vision 2030 goals.
This report provides an economic ra onale for priori zing REDD+ implementa on by showing the signi cant economic bene ts of doing so. Forest ecosystem services that were quan ed in this study and which are currently not account- ed for in the Gross Domes c Product (GDP) such as sediment reten on and erosion control, ecot- ourism, pollina on services and carbon storage, have an economic value equivalent to at least 2.5 per cent of the GDP of Zambia. This represents an undervalua on of 40 to 68 per cent of the to- tal value added of provisioning services such as industrial roundwood, charcoal, rewood, wood processing, pulp and paper and non-wood forest products. With the inclusion of these addi onal services, the contribu on of forests to the Zam- bian economy rises from 3.8 per cent to 6.3 per cent. The formal and informal contribu on of the forestry sector also supports over 1 million jobs related to fuelwood, non-wood forest prod- ucts and ecotourism, which means that forests support over 60 per cent of rural Zambian house- holds.
At the regional level, Zambia’s strategic loca- on makes it an important country within the sub-region in rela on to REDD+ and associated trans-boundary ecosystems. These ecosystems become even more important as Zambia holds about 30-40 per cent of the water resources in Southern Africa and shares trans-boundary wa- ter resources with eight other countries. At the interna onal level, Zambia has great poten al to promote key interna onal development goals, such as reducing carbon emission, through the implementa on of targets that will be outlined in its Na onal REDD+ Strategy.
This work, undertaken by UNEP’s Ecosystem Services Economics Unit in associa on with the Zambian Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental Protec on, is part of a range of ac vi es o ered by the UN-REDD Programme to support the Government of Zambia by ena- bling it to build the economic case for the imple- menta on of key policies and measures for the sustainable management and conserva on of the country’s forest ecosystems as part of REDD+ implementa on. Such measures could include strengthening forest management and enforce- ment of laws on illegal mber harves ng, sup- por ng community land tenure and strengthen- ing community-based forest stewardship. Other means include improving the e ciency and sus- tainability of agricultural prac ces, increasing ac- cess to incen ves and income genera ng ac v- i es that depend upon forest conserva on and managing the demand for charcoal produc on.
It is envisioned that these ndings will further strengthen the resolve of the Government of Zambia to address the drivers of deforesta on and forest degrada on, and to implement the Na onal REDD+ Strategy as part of the coun- try’s broader goals to achieve an Inclusive Green Economy.
were progressively adopted, yielding a net stabilization or decline. In the electricity sector, for instance, adoption of hydropower was followed by fossil-fired plants and then by nuclear power, each technology being successively less efficient from an exergy perspective. The underlying dynamic of this trend is analogous to declining ore grades in the mining sector. Increasing demand for exergy services requires expended utilization of resources from which it is more difficult to extract utility (e.g., falling water versus coal). We term this phenomenon efficiency dilution.
This can happen if the country manages to suc- cessfully implement its na onal strategy to re- duce emissions from deforesta on and forest degrada on, and, thereby, leverage nancing and investments opportuni es for REDD+ im- plementa on including through results-based payments. Ac ons to reduce deforesta on could be an important catalysing factor for the coun- try to transi on to a Green Economy, especial- ly if REDD+ implementa on is embedded in the country’s ambi ous development and economic objec ves. Thus, the poten al is great for the forestry sector to play a very important role in the country achieving its Vision 2030 goals.
This report provides an economic ra onale for priori zing REDD+ implementa on by showing the signi cant economic bene ts of doing so. Forest ecosystem services that were quan ed in this study and which are currently not account- ed for in the Gross Domes c Product (GDP) such as sediment reten on and erosion control, ecot- ourism, pollina on services and carbon storage, have an economic value equivalent to at least 2.5 per cent of the GDP of Zambia. This represents an undervalua on of 40 to 68 per cent of the to- tal value added of provisioning services such as industrial roundwood, charcoal, rewood, wood processing, pulp and paper and non-wood forest products. With the inclusion of these addi onal services, the contribu on of forests to the Zam- bian economy rises from 3.8 per cent to 6.3 per cent. The formal and informal contribu on of the forestry sector also supports over 1 million jobs related to fuelwood, non-wood forest prod- ucts and ecotourism, which means that forests support over 60 per cent of rural Zambian house- holds.
At the regional level, Zambia’s strategic loca- on makes it an important country within the sub-region in rela on to REDD+ and associated trans-boundary ecosystems. These ecosystems become even more important as Zambia holds about 30-40 per cent of the water resources in Southern Africa and shares trans-boundary wa- ter resources with eight other countries. At the interna onal level, Zambia has great poten al to promote key interna onal development goals, such as reducing carbon emission, through the implementa on of targets that will be outlined in its Na onal REDD+ Strategy.
This work, undertaken by UNEP’s Ecosystem Services Economics Unit in associa on with the Zambian Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental Protec on, is part of a range of ac vi es o ered by the UN-REDD Programme to support the Government of Zambia by ena- bling it to build the economic case for the imple- menta on of key policies and measures for the sustainable management and conserva on of the country’s forest ecosystems as part of REDD+ implementa on. Such measures could include strengthening forest management and enforce- ment of laws on illegal mber harves ng, sup- por ng community land tenure and strengthen- ing community-based forest stewardship. Other means include improving the e ciency and sus- tainability of agricultural prac ces, increasing ac- cess to incen ves and income genera ng ac v- i es that depend upon forest conserva on and managing the demand for charcoal produc on.
It is envisioned that these ndings will further strengthen the resolve of the Government of Zambia to address the drivers of deforesta on and forest degrada on, and to implement the Na onal REDD+ Strategy as part of the coun- try’s broader goals to achieve an Inclusive Green Economy.