2008 yılında ABD ekonomisinde konut ve ipotek piyasalarında yaşanan kriz ile beraber Lehman Broth... more 2008 yılında ABD ekonomisinde konut ve ipotek piyasalarında yaşanan kriz ile beraber Lehman Brothers’ın iflasının takibinde yaşanan finansal kriz büyük çaplı bir küresel buhrana dönüşmüştür. ABD’de yaşanan kriz kısa sürede Avrupa Birliği’ne sirayet etmiştir. Öte yandan, AB’nde 2008 Krizi, gerçekte AB’nin iktisat politikalarının krizin çok öncesinde krize altyapı oluşturup oluşturmadığı, yaşanan Büyük Resesyonun, Büyük Moderasyon dönemi ile ilişkisi ve iktisat politikalarında özellikle ortak para politikaları altında maliye politikalarının sürdürülebilirliği tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. 2009 yılı ve takibinde, Avrupa Birliği’nde finans piyasalarında ve üretimde önemli kayıplar gerçekleşirken, Yunanistan, İrlanda, Portekiz, İspanya gibi kamu borç yükünün önemli boyutlara ulaşmış olduğu yüksek risk içeren ülkeler için borç yükünün sürdürülemez hale gelmesinin önlenmesi için kurtarma paketleri devreye sokulsa da, Avrupa Birliği’nde reel servette ve üretimde önemli kayıplar gerçekleşmeye devam etmektedir. AB ve ABD’de krizin zaman içinde gelişimi ve etkileri incelendiğinde, AB’de krizin etkilerinin çok daha yüksek boyutta olup, krizin sonuçları yüksek işsizlik oranları ve çok düşük büyüme oranlarına ek olarak farklı ülke grupları bakımından da farklılaşmaktadır. Bu bölümde, AB’nde krizin gerçekte merkez ve çevre ekonomileri arasındaki eşitsizliğin bir sonucu olup olmadığı, AB’nde krizin bir borç krizi olup olmadığı, mali politikalarının sürdürülebilirliği ilgili yazın çerçevesinde değerlendirilirken, krizden çıkışta içsel devalüasyon teorisi; merkez-çevre ekseninde Post-Keynezyen uluslararası ticaret ve borç açıklamaları; AB bünyesinde geliştirilen EERP planı ve takibinde Lizbon Stratejisi’nden çıkartılan dersler doğrultusunda geliştirilen Avrupa 2020 programının değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. İlgili yazın çerçevesinde, AB’nin temelinde yer alan iktisat politikalarının yoğun olarak sorgulanmaya başlandığı, öncelikle parasal birlik ve ortak para politikası, hükümetlerin ekonomik özerkliği ve maliye politikalarında iradiyetin sınırlarının değerlendirilmesinin kaçınılmaz olduğu dikkat çekmektedir. Çalışmada, üye ülkelerin heterojen yapısının önem taşıdığı, merkez-çevre eşitsizliklerine dayalı büyümenin sürdürülebilir büyüme önünde önemli bir engel olduğu, AB’nin istikrarlı büyüme politikalarının revize edilmesinin uzun vadede istikrarlı büyümenin tahsisi için önem arzettiği sonuçlarına ulaşılmıştır.
Metaverse (MV) technology introduces new tools for users each day. MV companies have a significan... more Metaverse (MV) technology introduces new tools for users each day. MV companies have a significant share in the total stock markets today, and their size is increasing. However, MV technologies are questioned as to whether they contribute to environmental pollution with their increasing energy consumption (EC). This study explores complex nonlinear contagion with tail dependence and causality between MV stocks, EC, and environmental pollution proxied with carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) with a decade-long daily dataset covering 18 May 2012–16 March 2023. The Mandelbrot–Wallis and Lo’s rescaled range (R/S) tests confirm long-term dependence and fractionality, and the largest Lyapunov exponents, Shannon and Havrda, Charvât, and Tsallis (HCT) entropy tests followed by the Kolmogorov–Sinai (KS) complexity measure confirm chaos, entropy, and complexity. The Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (BDS) test of independence test confirms nonlinearity, and White‘s test of heteroskedasticity of nonlinear forms and Engle’s autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity test confirm heteroskedasticity, in addition to fractionality and chaos. In modeling, the marginal distributions are modeled with Markov-Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Copula (MS-GARCH–Copula) processes with two regimes for low and high volatility and asymmetric tail dependence between MV, EC, and CO2 in all regimes. The findings indicate relatively higher contagion with larger copula parameters in high-volatility regimes. Nonlinear causality is modeled under regime-switching heteroskedasticity, and the results indicate unidirectional causality from MV to EC, from MV to CO2, and from EC to CO2, in addition to bidirectional causality among MV and EC, which amplifies the effects on air pollution. The findings of this paper offer vital insights into the MV, EC, and CO2 nexus under chaos, fractionality, and nonlinearity. Important policy recommendations are generated.
The consanguine marriages and/or causine marriages are generally accepted and evaluated in light ... more The consanguine marriages and/or causine marriages are generally accepted and evaluated in light of the genetic problems. However, in the study, we aim to explain the effects on economic development and genetics problem of consanguine marriages and to investigate the relationship between economic development, consanguine marriages and genetics. The first part of the study focuses on economic development, consanguine marriages, genetic structure and human capital relations in theoretical framework. The second part contains the econometric analyses, Panel Neural Network investigated.
There is a body of research that focuses on the examination of long-run relations between energy–... more There is a body of research that focuses on the examination of long-run relations between energy–environment–economic growth, and there is also a new type of recent research that focuses on the effects of monetary and fiscal economic policies on the environment. There is a research gap that exists due to omitting the effects of technology and energy policies, and this paper addresses this gap, in addition to merging both fields mentioned above, by including the asymmetric effects of fiscal and monetary policies. To explore the relations between fossil fuel and renewable energies, environmental pollution, and economic growth, in addition to including the roles of energy, technology, monetary, and fiscal policies, this paper employs novel NBARDL and NBARDL Granger Causality methods for yearly data assessments in the USA. The empirical findings of the paper point to the asymmetric impacts of monetary and fiscal policies in the short- and long-run. Interestingly, both contractionary and...
In line with the fourth industrial revolution, most countries have imposed a variety of regulatio... more In line with the fourth industrial revolution, most countries have imposed a variety of regulations or policies for the goals of energy conservation, sustainable development, and industrial transition. Renewable energy production and its production process, which is widely discussed, especially in the context of sustainable energy, has become more important with Industry 4.0. This paper tested the relation among economic growth, renewable electricity generations (% of GDP), Industry 4.0, industrial structure, trade openness, financial development, and research and development expenditure for G20 countries in 2000–2021 by employing a panel quantile regression approach and various panel cointegration tests in addition to investigation of panel Granger causality among the analyzed variables. The variables of industrial structure, trade openness, and financial development were selected as control variables. Since this study is the first study on this topic, it will contribute to the development of the literature by providing resources for future studies about I4.0, renewable energy production, and economic growth. Furthermore, this study will not only contribute to the literature by revealing the theoretical and empirical relationship between these variables but will also shed light on the policies that G20 countries will produce in this regard. According to results, all variables examined have significant causal effects: unidirectional causality from economic growth to Industry 4.0, to research and development, and to renewable energy output and, also, from research and development to renewable energy output. Bidirectional causality and feedback effects between renewable energy and Industry 4.0 are determined. Further, unidirectional causality from industrial structure, from openness to trade, and from financial development to renewable energy output are determined. Results indicate renewable-enhancing effects of Industry 4.0.
Keywords: Industry 4.0; renewable energy; economic growth; sustainable economic development; information and communication technologies; research and development; international trade; G20; panel quantile regression; cointegration
Effects of Technology, Energy, Monetary, and Fiscal Policies on the Relationship between Renewable and Fossil Fuel Energies and Environmental Pollution: Novel NBARDL and Causality Analyses, 2023
There is a body of research that focuses on the examination of long-run relations between energy–... more There is a body of research that focuses on the examination of long-run relations between energy–environment–economic growth, and there is also a new type of recent research that focuses on the effects of monetary and fiscal economic policies on the environment. There is a research gap that exists due to omitting the effects of technology and energy policies, and this paper addresses this gap, in addition to merging both fields mentioned above, by including the asymmetric effects of fiscal and monetary policies. To explore the relations between fossil fuel and renewable energies, environmental pollution, and economic growth, in addition to including the roles of energy, technology, monetary, and fiscal policies, this paper employs novel NBARDL and NBARDL Granger Causality methods for yearly data assessments in the USA. The empirical findings of the paper point to the asymmetric impacts of monetary and fiscal policies in the short- and long-run. Interestingly, both contractionary and expansionary fiscal policies lead to higher CO2 emissions. Contractionary monetary policies exert a downward pressure on CO2 emissions, and if expansionary, the monetary policy causes environmental degradation. As an important policy, the energy policy emerges as a potent tool for reducing carbon emissions through not only renewable energy, but as a greater impact through energy efficiency and technology. Therefore, this paper highlights the importance of technology policies exhibiting varying relationships with environmental pollution, featuring unidirectional or bidirectional causality patterns. Renewable energy, energy efficiency combined with adequate technology, and energy policies are determined to have pivotal roles in CO2 emissions outcomes. Such policies should focus on cleaner energy sources accompanied by energy efficiency technologies in the USA to curtail environmental impacts; technology policies are vital in fostering innovations and encouraging cleaner technologies. The policy recommendations include an effective combination of monetary, fiscal, technology, and energy policies, backed by a strong commitment to achieving energy efficiency and renewable energy to mitigate environmental pollution and to contribute to sustainable development.
The study focuses on analyzing an economy that applies inflation targeting rule where the policy ... more The study focuses on analyzing an economy that applies inflation targeting rule where the policy interest rate is determined actively by the Taylor rule. However, following the interest rate rule, the policy maker involuntarily becomes the affirmant of inflation. As a result, the apriori target and posteriori result contrast in terms of price stability. Therefore, the achievement of price stability is involuntarily negatively affected. In an economy that applies inflation targeting policy where interest rates are determined with a Taylor type rule, the establishment of price stability could be negatively affected, the financial stability might be harmed following the determination of policy interest rates. Hence, the Central Bank might fall into a position where it should assent inflation. By moving from the Turkish example, the main problem in the policies of Central Bank of Turkey is the difference between the borrowing and lending rates and its possible inflationary effects.
2008 yılında ABD ekonomisinde konut ve ipotek piyasalarında yaşanan kriz ile beraber Lehman Broth... more 2008 yılında ABD ekonomisinde konut ve ipotek piyasalarında yaşanan kriz ile beraber Lehman Brothers’ın iflasının takibinde yaşanan finansal kriz büyük çaplı bir küresel buhrana dönüşmüştür. ABD’de yaşanan kriz kısa sürede Avrupa Birliği’ne sirayet etmiştir. Öte yandan, AB’nde 2008 Krizi, gerçekte AB’nin iktisat politikalarının krizin çok öncesinde krize altyapı oluşturup oluşturmadığı, yaşanan Büyük Resesyonun, Büyük Moderasyon dönemi ile ilişkisi ve iktisat politikalarında özellikle ortak para politikaları altında maliye politikalarının sürdürülebilirliği tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. 2009 yılı ve takibinde, Avrupa Birliği’nde finans piyasalarında ve üretimde önemli kayıplar gerçekleşirken, Yunanistan, İrlanda, Portekiz, İspanya gibi kamu borç yükünün önemli boyutlara ulaşmış olduğu yüksek risk içeren ülkeler için borç yükünün sürdürülemez hale gelmesinin önlenmesi için kurtarma paketleri devreye sokulsa da, Avrupa Birliği’nde reel servette ve üretimde önemli kayıplar gerçekleşmeye devam etmektedir. AB ve ABD’de krizin zaman içinde gelişimi ve etkileri incelendiğinde, AB’de krizin etkilerinin çok daha yüksek boyutta olup, krizin sonuçları yüksek işsizlik oranları ve çok düşük büyüme oranlarına ek olarak farklı ülke grupları bakımından da farklılaşmaktadır. Bu bölümde, AB’nde krizin gerçekte merkez ve çevre ekonomileri arasındaki eşitsizliğin bir sonucu olup olmadığı, AB’nde krizin bir borç krizi olup olmadığı, mali politikalarının sürdürülebilirliği ilgili yazın çerçevesinde değerlendirilirken, krizden çıkışta içsel devalüasyon teorisi; merkez-çevre ekseninde Post-Keynezyen uluslararası ticaret ve borç açıklamaları; AB bünyesinde geliştirilen EERP planı ve takibinde Lizbon Stratejisi’nden çıkartılan dersler doğrultusunda geliştirilen Avrupa 2020 programının değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. İlgili yazın çerçevesinde, AB’nin temelinde yer alan iktisat politikalarının yoğun olarak sorgulanmaya başlandığı, öncelikle parasal birlik ve ortak para politikası, hükümetlerin ekonomik özerkliği ve maliye politikalarında iradiyetin sınırlarının değerlendirilmesinin kaçınılmaz olduğu dikkat çekmektedir. Çalışmada, üye ülkelerin heterojen yapısının önem taşıdığı, merkez-çevre eşitsizliklerine dayalı büyümenin sürdürülebilir büyüme önünde önemli bir engel olduğu, AB’nin istikrarlı büyüme politikalarının revize edilmesinin uzun vadede istikrarlı büyümenin tahsisi için önem arzettiği sonuçlarına ulaşılmıştır.
Metaverse (MV) technology introduces new tools for users each day. MV companies have a significan... more Metaverse (MV) technology introduces new tools for users each day. MV companies have a significant share in the total stock markets today, and their size is increasing. However, MV technologies are questioned as to whether they contribute to environmental pollution with their increasing energy consumption (EC). This study explores complex nonlinear contagion with tail dependence and causality between MV stocks, EC, and environmental pollution proxied with carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) with a decade-long daily dataset covering 18 May 2012–16 March 2023. The Mandelbrot–Wallis and Lo’s rescaled range (R/S) tests confirm long-term dependence and fractionality, and the largest Lyapunov exponents, Shannon and Havrda, Charvât, and Tsallis (HCT) entropy tests followed by the Kolmogorov–Sinai (KS) complexity measure confirm chaos, entropy, and complexity. The Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (BDS) test of independence test confirms nonlinearity, and White‘s test of heteroskedasticity of nonlinear forms and Engle’s autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity test confirm heteroskedasticity, in addition to fractionality and chaos. In modeling, the marginal distributions are modeled with Markov-Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Copula (MS-GARCH–Copula) processes with two regimes for low and high volatility and asymmetric tail dependence between MV, EC, and CO2 in all regimes. The findings indicate relatively higher contagion with larger copula parameters in high-volatility regimes. Nonlinear causality is modeled under regime-switching heteroskedasticity, and the results indicate unidirectional causality from MV to EC, from MV to CO2, and from EC to CO2, in addition to bidirectional causality among MV and EC, which amplifies the effects on air pollution. The findings of this paper offer vital insights into the MV, EC, and CO2 nexus under chaos, fractionality, and nonlinearity. Important policy recommendations are generated.
The consanguine marriages and/or causine marriages are generally accepted and evaluated in light ... more The consanguine marriages and/or causine marriages are generally accepted and evaluated in light of the genetic problems. However, in the study, we aim to explain the effects on economic development and genetics problem of consanguine marriages and to investigate the relationship between economic development, consanguine marriages and genetics. The first part of the study focuses on economic development, consanguine marriages, genetic structure and human capital relations in theoretical framework. The second part contains the econometric analyses, Panel Neural Network investigated.
There is a body of research that focuses on the examination of long-run relations between energy–... more There is a body of research that focuses on the examination of long-run relations between energy–environment–economic growth, and there is also a new type of recent research that focuses on the effects of monetary and fiscal economic policies on the environment. There is a research gap that exists due to omitting the effects of technology and energy policies, and this paper addresses this gap, in addition to merging both fields mentioned above, by including the asymmetric effects of fiscal and monetary policies. To explore the relations between fossil fuel and renewable energies, environmental pollution, and economic growth, in addition to including the roles of energy, technology, monetary, and fiscal policies, this paper employs novel NBARDL and NBARDL Granger Causality methods for yearly data assessments in the USA. The empirical findings of the paper point to the asymmetric impacts of monetary and fiscal policies in the short- and long-run. Interestingly, both contractionary and...
In line with the fourth industrial revolution, most countries have imposed a variety of regulatio... more In line with the fourth industrial revolution, most countries have imposed a variety of regulations or policies for the goals of energy conservation, sustainable development, and industrial transition. Renewable energy production and its production process, which is widely discussed, especially in the context of sustainable energy, has become more important with Industry 4.0. This paper tested the relation among economic growth, renewable electricity generations (% of GDP), Industry 4.0, industrial structure, trade openness, financial development, and research and development expenditure for G20 countries in 2000–2021 by employing a panel quantile regression approach and various panel cointegration tests in addition to investigation of panel Granger causality among the analyzed variables. The variables of industrial structure, trade openness, and financial development were selected as control variables. Since this study is the first study on this topic, it will contribute to the development of the literature by providing resources for future studies about I4.0, renewable energy production, and economic growth. Furthermore, this study will not only contribute to the literature by revealing the theoretical and empirical relationship between these variables but will also shed light on the policies that G20 countries will produce in this regard. According to results, all variables examined have significant causal effects: unidirectional causality from economic growth to Industry 4.0, to research and development, and to renewable energy output and, also, from research and development to renewable energy output. Bidirectional causality and feedback effects between renewable energy and Industry 4.0 are determined. Further, unidirectional causality from industrial structure, from openness to trade, and from financial development to renewable energy output are determined. Results indicate renewable-enhancing effects of Industry 4.0.
Keywords: Industry 4.0; renewable energy; economic growth; sustainable economic development; information and communication technologies; research and development; international trade; G20; panel quantile regression; cointegration
Effects of Technology, Energy, Monetary, and Fiscal Policies on the Relationship between Renewable and Fossil Fuel Energies and Environmental Pollution: Novel NBARDL and Causality Analyses, 2023
There is a body of research that focuses on the examination of long-run relations between energy–... more There is a body of research that focuses on the examination of long-run relations between energy–environment–economic growth, and there is also a new type of recent research that focuses on the effects of monetary and fiscal economic policies on the environment. There is a research gap that exists due to omitting the effects of technology and energy policies, and this paper addresses this gap, in addition to merging both fields mentioned above, by including the asymmetric effects of fiscal and monetary policies. To explore the relations between fossil fuel and renewable energies, environmental pollution, and economic growth, in addition to including the roles of energy, technology, monetary, and fiscal policies, this paper employs novel NBARDL and NBARDL Granger Causality methods for yearly data assessments in the USA. The empirical findings of the paper point to the asymmetric impacts of monetary and fiscal policies in the short- and long-run. Interestingly, both contractionary and expansionary fiscal policies lead to higher CO2 emissions. Contractionary monetary policies exert a downward pressure on CO2 emissions, and if expansionary, the monetary policy causes environmental degradation. As an important policy, the energy policy emerges as a potent tool for reducing carbon emissions through not only renewable energy, but as a greater impact through energy efficiency and technology. Therefore, this paper highlights the importance of technology policies exhibiting varying relationships with environmental pollution, featuring unidirectional or bidirectional causality patterns. Renewable energy, energy efficiency combined with adequate technology, and energy policies are determined to have pivotal roles in CO2 emissions outcomes. Such policies should focus on cleaner energy sources accompanied by energy efficiency technologies in the USA to curtail environmental impacts; technology policies are vital in fostering innovations and encouraging cleaner technologies. The policy recommendations include an effective combination of monetary, fiscal, technology, and energy policies, backed by a strong commitment to achieving energy efficiency and renewable energy to mitigate environmental pollution and to contribute to sustainable development.
The study focuses on analyzing an economy that applies inflation targeting rule where the policy ... more The study focuses on analyzing an economy that applies inflation targeting rule where the policy interest rate is determined actively by the Taylor rule. However, following the interest rate rule, the policy maker involuntarily becomes the affirmant of inflation. As a result, the apriori target and posteriori result contrast in terms of price stability. Therefore, the achievement of price stability is involuntarily negatively affected. In an economy that applies inflation targeting policy where interest rates are determined with a Taylor type rule, the establishment of price stability could be negatively affected, the financial stability might be harmed following the determination of policy interest rates. Hence, the Central Bank might fall into a position where it should assent inflation. By moving from the Turkish example, the main problem in the policies of Central Bank of Turkey is the difference between the borrowing and lending rates and its possible inflationary effects.
ABSTRACT The English version of this paper can be found at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2227747Çalış... more ABSTRACT The English version of this paper can be found at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2227747Çalışma, temel GARCH modelinin Destek Vektör Makinesi ve Yapay Sinir Ağları ile iyileştirilmiş modellerin incelenerek GARCH modelinin tahmin performansının iyileştirilmesi bakımından başarısının test edilmesini amaçlamaktadır. YSA yapısının temel alındığı NN-GARCH modelinde Donaldson ve Kamstra (1997) NN-GARCH mimarisinin temel alındığı ve farklı öğrenme algoritmaları ile modellendiği Bildirici ve Ersin (2009) temel alınırken, SVR-GARCH modelinin oluşturulmasında Ou ve Wang (2010) ve Perez-Cruz (2003) çalışmalarından hareket edilmiştir. Modeller, tahmin başarısı bakımından değerlendirilmiştir. Bu kapsamda, IMKB-100 endeksinde günlük getiriler modellenmesinde temel alınan GARCH, SVR-GARCH ve MLP-GARCH modelleri, örneklem içi ve örneklem dışı tahmin başarısı açısından değerlendirilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular çerçevesinde, seride öne çıkan leptokurtik dağılıma ek olarak asimetri ve doğrusal olmama karakteristiklerinin SVR-GARCH ve MLP-GARCH modelleri ile modellenebileceği; farklı hata kriterleri ve eşit tahmin tutarlılığı testleri kapsamında temel GARCH modellerinden başarılı bulunduğu; örneklem dışı tahmin başarısı bakımından ise, Diebold Mariano testlerinden hareketle SVR-GARCH ve MLP-GARCH modelleri için eşit tahmin tutarlılığının 8 farklı gelecek tahmininden 6'sı için reddedilememekte iken; 2'si için ise SVR-GARCH modelinin daha başarılı bulunduğu sonuçlarına varılmaktadır. The study aims to augment commonly applied volatility models with support vector machines and neural networks. The proposed modeling strategy benefits from neural network based GARCH models of Donaldson and Kamstra (1997) and SVR-GARCH models discussed by Ou and Wang (2010) and Perez-Cruz (2003). Models are evaluated for in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting of daily returns in Istanbul ISE100 stock index. Results suggest that volatility clustering, asymmetry and nonlinearity characteristics are modeled more effectively with SVR-GARCH and MLP-GARCH models compared to the basic GARCH models. In terms of out-of-sample forecasting capabilities, Diebold-Mariano tests show that equal forecast accuracy could not be rejected for most of the horizons for the MLP-GARCH and SVR-GARCH models. On the other hand, SVR-GARCH is found to possess better forecast accuracy in 2 out of 8 forecast competitions.
... MARRIAGES ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT * Melike Bildirici ** Meltem Kökdener ***Özgür Ömer Ersin *... more ... MARRIAGES ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT * Melike Bildirici ** Meltem Kökdener ***Özgür Ömer Ersin * Prof.Dr., Yıldız Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences, Economics Department Barbaros Bulvari,Besiktas,stanbul Email: bildiri@yildiz.edu.tr ...
In this study, development experiences toward economic development are investigated to provide an... more In this study, development experiences toward economic development are investigated to provide an alternative analysis of economic development, human capital, and genetic inheritance in the light of consanguineous marriages. The countries analyzed in the study are discussed in accordance with consanguineous marriage practices and classified by their per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. A broad range of countries are analyzed in the study. Arab countries that experienced high rates of growth in their gross national income during the twentieth century but failed to fulfill adequate development measures as reflected in the growth in national income, countries undergoing transition from tight government regulation to free market democracy, and African nations that have experienced complications in the process of development show important differences in the process of economic development. It is shown that the countries that have reached high average development within the context of per capita GDP have overcome problems integral to consanguineous marriage.
Uploads
conditional heteroskedasticity test confirm heteroskedasticity, in addition to fractionality and chaos. In modeling, the marginal distributions are modeled with Markov-Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Copula (MS-GARCH–Copula) processes with two regimes for low and high volatility and asymmetric tail dependence between MV, EC, and CO2 in all regimes. The findings indicate relatively higher contagion with larger copula parameters in high-volatility regimes. Nonlinear causality is modeled under regime-switching heteroskedasticity, and the results indicate unidirectional causality from MV to EC, from MV to CO2, and from EC to CO2, in addition to bidirectional causality among MV and EC, which amplifies the effects on air pollution. The findings of this paper offer vital insights into the MV, EC, and CO2 nexus under chaos, fractionality, and nonlinearity. Important policy recommendations are generated.
Keywords: Industry 4.0; renewable energy; economic growth; sustainable economic development; information and communication technologies; research and development; international trade; G20; panel quantile regression; cointegration
conditional heteroskedasticity test confirm heteroskedasticity, in addition to fractionality and chaos. In modeling, the marginal distributions are modeled with Markov-Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Copula (MS-GARCH–Copula) processes with two regimes for low and high volatility and asymmetric tail dependence between MV, EC, and CO2 in all regimes. The findings indicate relatively higher contagion with larger copula parameters in high-volatility regimes. Nonlinear causality is modeled under regime-switching heteroskedasticity, and the results indicate unidirectional causality from MV to EC, from MV to CO2, and from EC to CO2, in addition to bidirectional causality among MV and EC, which amplifies the effects on air pollution. The findings of this paper offer vital insights into the MV, EC, and CO2 nexus under chaos, fractionality, and nonlinearity. Important policy recommendations are generated.
Keywords: Industry 4.0; renewable energy; economic growth; sustainable economic development; information and communication technologies; research and development; international trade; G20; panel quantile regression; cointegration