Sandroni and Squintani (Am Econ Rev 97(5):1994–2004, 2007) argue that in the presence of overconf... more Sandroni and Squintani (Am Econ Rev 97(5):1994–2004, 2007) argue that in the presence of overconfident agents, the findings of Rothschild and Stiglitz (Q J Econ 90:629–649, 1976) no longer hold since compulsory insurance makes the low-risk agents worse off. The main assumption of Sandroni and Squintani (2007) is that there exists a causal link between overconfidence and insurance-purchasing behavior. In this paper, I use a design similar to Camerer and Lovallo (Am Econ Rev 89(1):306–318, 1999) to establish this causal link. I show that overconfident subjects purchase significantly less actuarially fair insurance when the probability of loss is unknown and it depends on their own unknown ability than when the probability of loss is known.
This dissertation uses experimental evidence to explore the effects of overconfidence on economic... more This dissertation uses experimental evidence to explore the effects of overconfidence on economic decision making. In Chapter 1 I provide experimental evidence of the effects of alcohol on overconfidence and several other important tasks. I also explore the relationship between overconfidence and the behavior in the other tasks. The data from this experiment show that an alcohol level of 0.08 does not have a systemic effect on behavior and more importantly it does not affect ones level of overconfidence. I also show that overconfidence is not significantly correlated with risk preferences, math, strategic behavior, anchoring, altruism, and food choices. In Chapter 2 I use feedback to establish a causal link between overconfidence and trading behavior. Feedback is used to eliminate the possibility for subjects to be overconfident about the accuracy of their signals. The data from this experiment show that overconfidence affects trading volume and profits, but when feedback is provide...
Transforming Government: People, Process and Policy, 2020
This study aims to achieve three goals: present a holistic, flexible and dynamic model; define th... more This study aims to achieve three goals: present a holistic, flexible and dynamic model; define the model’s factors and explain how these factors lead to effective and efficient usage of big data; and generate indexes based on experts’ input to rank them based on their importance.,This paper uses the analytic hierarchy process, a quantitative method of decision-making, to evaluate the importance of the factors presented in the model. The fundamental principle of the overall model is that of a dynamo which is borrowed from electromagnetic physics. The model is also based on three IS theories.,Technological advancements and data security are among the most important factors that may impact the effectiveness and efficiency of big data usage. Authentication, governments’ focus on it and transparency and accountability are the most important factors in techno-centric, governmental-centric and user-centric factors, respectively.,The findings of this paper confirmed earlier findings in the ...
DESCRIPTION In this paper we look at the relationship between overconfidence and information acqu... more DESCRIPTION In this paper we look at the relationship between overconfidence and information acquisition. We establish two measures of overconfidence: Overestimation and Overplacement. The main finding of the paper is that both of these measures are negatively correlated with the amount of free information provided.
Sandroni and Squintani (Am Econ Rev 97(5):1994–2004, 2007) argue that in the presence of overconf... more Sandroni and Squintani (Am Econ Rev 97(5):1994–2004, 2007) argue that in the presence of overconfident agents, the findings of Rothschild and Stiglitz (Q J Econ 90:629–649, 1976) no longer hold since compulsory insurance makes the low-risk agents worse off. The main assumption of Sandroni and Squintani (2007) is that there exists a causal link between overconfidence and insurance-purchasing behavior. In this paper, I use a design similar to Camerer and Lovallo (Am Econ Rev 89(1):306–318, 1999) to establish this causal link. I show that overconfident subjects purchase significantly less actuarially fair insurance when the probability of loss is unknown and it depends on their own unknown ability than when the probability of loss is known.
This dissertation uses experimental evidence to explore the effects of overconfidence on economic... more This dissertation uses experimental evidence to explore the effects of overconfidence on economic decision making. In Chapter 1 I provide experimental evidence of the effects of alcohol on overconfidence and several other important tasks. I also explore the relationship between overconfidence and the behavior in the other tasks. The data from this experiment show that an alcohol level of 0.08 does not have a systemic effect on behavior and more importantly it does not affect ones level of overconfidence. I also show that overconfidence is not significantly correlated with risk preferences, math, strategic behavior, anchoring, altruism, and food choices. In Chapter 2 I use feedback to establish a causal link between overconfidence and trading behavior. Feedback is used to eliminate the possibility for subjects to be overconfident about the accuracy of their signals. The data from this experiment show that overconfidence affects trading volume and profits, but when feedback is provide...
Transforming Government: People, Process and Policy, 2020
This study aims to achieve three goals: present a holistic, flexible and dynamic model; define th... more This study aims to achieve three goals: present a holistic, flexible and dynamic model; define the model’s factors and explain how these factors lead to effective and efficient usage of big data; and generate indexes based on experts’ input to rank them based on their importance.,This paper uses the analytic hierarchy process, a quantitative method of decision-making, to evaluate the importance of the factors presented in the model. The fundamental principle of the overall model is that of a dynamo which is borrowed from electromagnetic physics. The model is also based on three IS theories.,Technological advancements and data security are among the most important factors that may impact the effectiveness and efficiency of big data usage. Authentication, governments’ focus on it and transparency and accountability are the most important factors in techno-centric, governmental-centric and user-centric factors, respectively.,The findings of this paper confirmed earlier findings in the ...
DESCRIPTION In this paper we look at the relationship between overconfidence and information acqu... more DESCRIPTION In this paper we look at the relationship between overconfidence and information acquisition. We establish two measures of overconfidence: Overestimation and Overplacement. The main finding of the paper is that both of these measures are negatively correlated with the amount of free information provided.
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