Papers by Rafael E . Linera Rivera
The neurological and psychological characteristics of adolescence make adolescents particularly v... more The neurological and psychological characteristics of adolescence make adolescents particularly vulnerable to recruitment tactics employed by fringe and antisocial groups. ISIL is not the first group to take advantage of adolescents’ vulnerabilities, but the group has become particularly adept at doing so. Undermining their influence among potential recruits in this age range requires an understanding of the adolescents’ state of mind and brain; counter-messages that are intuitively appealing to older adults may be ineffective, or even counter-productive among this audience. In particular, messages directed to adolescents should (1) focus on emotionally impactful messages instead of logical arguments, (2) avoid emphasizing the risks associated with joining ISIL, and (3) undermine ISIL’s claims to provide belongingness and peer affiliation and provide alternate means for social acceptance. Introduction On February 23, 2016 the government of Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region repor...
Great Power Competition: The Changing Landscape of Global Geopolitics, 2020
This chapter explains how this revolution evolved by employing content analysis to reflect on tim... more This chapter explains how this revolution evolved by employing content analysis to reflect on time, space, and motivational aspects based on collected Tweets such as those that Alex Nunns and Nadia Idle explored in Tweets from Tahrir: Egypt’s Revolution as It Unfolded, in the Words of the People Who Made It. The first part of this analysis explores the themes at the level of the Twitter feed for the activists. To establish a basis of comparison, this chapter compares the Twitter feed of the activists with the thematic structure of George Friedman’s Stratfor article, “Egypt: The Distance between Enthusiasm and Reality.” Friedman’s article summarized the events in Egypt right after the revolution ended.
Twitter messages were limited to 140 characters during the Arab Spring, making it one of the most compacted social media platforms at the time. And even with Twitter’s 2017 increase to 280 characters, many ask and continue to study how people can get so much out of so little when engaging in Twitter conversations or exchanges. The question becomes even more interesting when activists communicate the vicissitudes of an ongoing event that is unfolding, dynamically, as was the case with Tahrir Square and the 25 January Revolution. The interaction between the ego (I, or self) and alter (other) while defining the object (sign, symbol, representation) is a simple but effective way to understand the relationship between Twitter dialogue and subsequent behavior.
Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA), Pentagon J39, 2018
This paper focuses on current trends and methodologies in developing a comprehensive assessment a... more This paper focuses on current trends and methodologies in developing a comprehensive assessment and evaluation plan for behavior-focused Psychological Operations (PSYOP) programs. It outlines a pragmatic approach that takes into consideration the need for not only reactive but proactive real-time influence efforts that target problem behaviors and problem conditions as they unfold, viewing them as fluid and dynamic rather than static and unchanging. This updated methodology expands upon the traditional approach by focusing on precise end-states and the detailed psychological effects required to achieve them. This also facilitates the development of adaptive interventions that can be altered in response to rapidly changing situations to maximize the effectiveness of the influence effort, and address the increasing need to be flexible at the strategic, operational, and tactical level.
“What Do Others Think and How Do We Know What They Are Thinking?” -- A Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Periodic Publication, 2018
“What Do Others Think and How Do We Know What They Are Thinking?”
It deals with broad topic of... more “What Do Others Think and How Do We Know What They Are Thinking?”
It deals with broad topic of assessing options to gain better understanding of the subjective world of populations we need to interface and relate to. How can we reliably anticipate behavior patterns? Our challenge is gaining the most accurate and useful information for commanders and other agencies for planning purposes. Who are the right people to try to influence to achieve strategic goals (individuals and/or groups). Which behaviors are we targeting? Why do people display those particular behaviors? Finally, how do we coordinate operations to drive the desired behaviors? We cannot rely entirely on social media (we must blend it with other intelligence), even though it can be an important contributor. This White Paper is intended to provide recommendations for planning methodologies, technological approaches, and required expertise.
In the article entitled “Effects-Based Psychological Operations Measures of Effectiveness: Measuring Change and Impact,” LTC (Dr.) Greg Seese (JHU-APL), LTC (Dr.) Rafael Linera (USASOC), and Mr. Erinn McQuagge (Northrop Grumman) focus on current trends and methodologies in developing a comprehensive assessment and evaluation plan for behavior-focused Psychological Operations (PSYOP) programs. They state the mission of PSYOP is to influence behavior. Behavioral change is at the root of the PSYOP mission. Although concerned with the mental processes, it is the observable modification of behavior that determines mission success. Therefore, influence efforts must have clearly defined and measurable behavior-focused goals and objectives. They go on to state
that planning and evaluating the effectiveness of a PSYOP program can be a daunting task, but if measurable goals and objectives are developed, measure of effectiveness (MOE) questions are relatively straight forward to write. Properly crafted MOE’s are much easier to integrate into a supported unit’s intelligence collection plan and lend credence to the credibility of influence programs. They conclude by stating that the pragmatic framework presented demonstrates that it is possible to not only measure changes in behavior and the associated knowledge and beliefs, but also whether the program is having any impact.
The hyper connected nature of the global environment brings with it new challenges to U.S. intere... more The hyper connected nature of the global environment brings with it new challenges to U.S. interests around the world. The future will see an increase in global connectivity and associated challenges as populations of developing nations gain access to modern communications technology. Greater connectivity will enable hostile entities to influence a wider audience and to co-opt members of disaffected populations for malign purposes. These and other aspects of the future operating environment will accelerate the speed with which threats can develop. As a result, we need to understand how to effectively influence adversaries in an effort to counter their actions before a substantial commitment of U.S. resources is required.
The following volume contains the work of military and academic practitioners committed to understanding and influencing our nation’s adversaries. The ideas put forth by these authors represent efforts to develop scientifically informed approaches that address the operational challenges we face now and into the future. Contributing authors examine tactics that shape conditions and influence behavior through cognitive engagement; a concept that acknowledges the importance of psychological factors in modern conflict. The approaches to cognitive engagement discussed in this volume are ideally suited for Military Information Support Operations. They are also applicable to a wide range of military and interagency activities.
The work contained in the following pages focuses on how to operationalize scientifically informed approaches to understanding and influencing our adversaries. It applies science to the challenge of shaping human behavior and represents an important step forward in the study of biological, psychological, and social approaches as they relate to cognitive engagement. By leveraging science, we may act more effectively to counter the intentions of adversaries and facilitate security and stability in regions worldwide.
Narratives should be regarded as living, breathing, adapting entities. Although developed by indi... more Narratives should be regarded as living, breathing, adapting entities. Although developed by individuals and groups, its ability to morph and evolve makes it challenging to seize. In today’s “Internet of Everything” world, a narrative’s reach and adaptation can grow exponentially. This fact becomes a challenge when developing strategic narratives in support of operational and tactical themes and messaging. This paper proposes to treat narratives as the main target.
This paper outlines a theoretical framework intended to provide (a) a capability to rapidly ident... more This paper outlines a theoretical framework intended to provide (a) a capability to rapidly identify and analyze Big Data Violent Extremist Organization (VEO) messages, and (b) to generate counter messages that will appear authentic to the individual, group, movement, or sect that the original messages are affiliated. This theoretical model will assist the generation of large amounts of counter-propaganda which will bear signatures of authenticity to be released back into the radical violent extremist narrative space (e.g., jihadist propaganda or any other VEO)—facilitating targeting such narratives in real-time.
United States adversaries have used Psychological Warfare tactics to skillfully recruit individua... more United States adversaries have used Psychological Warfare tactics to skillfully recruit individuals to join their group or to incite them to act in sympathy with their cause against the U.S. and its allies. Much of this activity has found a safe haven on the Internet where the protagonists can find sanctuary and operate with relative safety and anonymity on a global scale to influence susceptible people. It is our proposal to develop cognitive-based countermeasures to undermine the effectiveness of the propaganda and to hence reduce the capability of the use of internet sites in particular to recruit.
A group of 10 Media Psychology faculty and students from Fielding Graduate University spent the l... more A group of 10 Media Psychology faculty and students from Fielding Graduate University spent the last six months participating in a worldwide exercise aimed at degrading and countering terrorist messaging. The project was initiated by the U.S. Department of Defense Global Operations and involved academic, research, and public agencies from around the globe. The initial focus was on the impact of narrative psychology in Iraq, Syria, and North Africa. http://www.fielding.edu/news/media-psychology-joins-us-military-anti-terrorism-exercise/
Less than Lethal or Non-Lethal measures such as The Active Denial System (ADS) have been consider... more Less than Lethal or Non-Lethal measures such as The Active Denial System (ADS) have been considered over the years as alternatives to conventional fighting methods. Some, such as the Taser, require close proximity to the target; others such as the variety of weapons firing “beanbags” or rounds carrying CS gas payloads will work for civilian crowd dispersal purposes but are not suited to combat situations. There are also instances where the supposed “nonlethal” weapon has directly produced death.
We seek a weapon that could be used in combat situations, but its nonlethal aspects would also enable it to be used for civilian situations such as riot control. It should not produce excessive pain, one of the criticisms against the Active Denial System, and it should not have the possible neurological and cardiac effects of a Taser.
Over the last decade, neuroscience has provided significant improvements in understanding human c... more Over the last decade, neuroscience has provided significant improvements in understanding human cognitive processes. Recent developments in the field of media neuroscience show that traditional information collection methods alone fail to provide holistically effective metrics to plan, assess, and engage with modern persuasive efforts. Media neuroscience techniques and methods that were once cost prohibitive and confined to the laboratory are now affordable, compact, and mobile. US Army Special Operations Command can capitalize on recent advancements in media neuroscience by investing in education for PSYOP practitioners to integrate the most current equipment, training, and techniques available into the force. This new technology can be leveraged to augment and enhance the social/behavioral science methods presently being used. This will contribute to an increased effectiveness of DoD influence campaigns, as it modernizes both the practices and equipment used within the PSYOP Operational Force.
The links between media and terrorism have been researched extensively. Yet, research on propaga... more The links between media and terrorism have been researched extensively. Yet, research on propaganda content spreading throughout online media environment and across media platforms is still emerging. Particularly, there needs to be an analysis of how messages are developed across media on reactions to extremist attacks and propaganda as seen in the conversations of microbloggers—users who exchange content via short texts, images, or links. This dissertation employed semiotics, social representations theory, and minority influence to explore how the images and language content from the terrorist attacks (29 – 30 December 2013) and their extremist online propaganda video (18 January 2014) against the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics translated to mainstream media platforms and Twitter. This exploration unveiled themes of martyrdom, patriotism, and the call to jihad; and how these concepts translated to different media platforms. Of note is the emphasis on fear and resilience as psychological constructs; both displayed throughout the prescribed timeline among different audiences across media. This provides an ecologically valid transmedia representation and serial reproduction of the jihadist message-spreading phenomenon in question. This dissertation adapted Cantril’s study of fear and informed skepticism, as well as Bartlett’s study in conventionalization and serial reproduction methodology. The application of these early theories in psychology related to cognition, along with contemporary media platforms and dynamics, provided a needed revision of these two studies—particularly in the research field approaching jihadist online activities within social media. Additionally, from a violence standpoint, findings from this study suggest that (a) the threat is nearly as effective as the act itself—especially if they complement each other; (b) succeeding threats may augment the threat level perception, increasing the footprint of the threat created by the video propaganda; (c) extremist organizations can benefit from amplified media platforms prior to high profile events (e.g., Olympics, elections, etc.), despite the assurance of high-level security provided for these events. Lastly, having designed a time series study looking at cross-media platforms will not only advance media psychology scholarship but should also prove to be applicable and relevant to the research community as a whole.
Conference Presentations by Rafael E . Linera Rivera
2023 Civil Affairs Conference: “Campaigning and Civil Affairs”, 2023
The recent development of the Civil Affairs Irregular Warfare and Governance Courses by the Irreg... more The recent development of the Civil Affairs Irregular Warfare and Governance Courses by the Irregular Warfare Technical Support Directorate represents a strategic advancement in equipping U.S. Army Civil Affairs personnel for modern global challenges. This initiative, stemming from a collaboration between the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL), the United States Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School (USAJFKSWCS), and the 95th Civil Affairs Brigade (Special Operations) (Airborne) (95th CA (SO) (A)), reflects a proactive response to the evolving nature of conflict and competition in the 21st century.
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Papers by Rafael E . Linera Rivera
Twitter messages were limited to 140 characters during the Arab Spring, making it one of the most compacted social media platforms at the time. And even with Twitter’s 2017 increase to 280 characters, many ask and continue to study how people can get so much out of so little when engaging in Twitter conversations or exchanges. The question becomes even more interesting when activists communicate the vicissitudes of an ongoing event that is unfolding, dynamically, as was the case with Tahrir Square and the 25 January Revolution. The interaction between the ego (I, or self) and alter (other) while defining the object (sign, symbol, representation) is a simple but effective way to understand the relationship between Twitter dialogue and subsequent behavior.
It deals with broad topic of assessing options to gain better understanding of the subjective world of populations we need to interface and relate to. How can we reliably anticipate behavior patterns? Our challenge is gaining the most accurate and useful information for commanders and other agencies for planning purposes. Who are the right people to try to influence to achieve strategic goals (individuals and/or groups). Which behaviors are we targeting? Why do people display those particular behaviors? Finally, how do we coordinate operations to drive the desired behaviors? We cannot rely entirely on social media (we must blend it with other intelligence), even though it can be an important contributor. This White Paper is intended to provide recommendations for planning methodologies, technological approaches, and required expertise.
In the article entitled “Effects-Based Psychological Operations Measures of Effectiveness: Measuring Change and Impact,” LTC (Dr.) Greg Seese (JHU-APL), LTC (Dr.) Rafael Linera (USASOC), and Mr. Erinn McQuagge (Northrop Grumman) focus on current trends and methodologies in developing a comprehensive assessment and evaluation plan for behavior-focused Psychological Operations (PSYOP) programs. They state the mission of PSYOP is to influence behavior. Behavioral change is at the root of the PSYOP mission. Although concerned with the mental processes, it is the observable modification of behavior that determines mission success. Therefore, influence efforts must have clearly defined and measurable behavior-focused goals and objectives. They go on to state
that planning and evaluating the effectiveness of a PSYOP program can be a daunting task, but if measurable goals and objectives are developed, measure of effectiveness (MOE) questions are relatively straight forward to write. Properly crafted MOE’s are much easier to integrate into a supported unit’s intelligence collection plan and lend credence to the credibility of influence programs. They conclude by stating that the pragmatic framework presented demonstrates that it is possible to not only measure changes in behavior and the associated knowledge and beliefs, but also whether the program is having any impact.
The following volume contains the work of military and academic practitioners committed to understanding and influencing our nation’s adversaries. The ideas put forth by these authors represent efforts to develop scientifically informed approaches that address the operational challenges we face now and into the future. Contributing authors examine tactics that shape conditions and influence behavior through cognitive engagement; a concept that acknowledges the importance of psychological factors in modern conflict. The approaches to cognitive engagement discussed in this volume are ideally suited for Military Information Support Operations. They are also applicable to a wide range of military and interagency activities.
The work contained in the following pages focuses on how to operationalize scientifically informed approaches to understanding and influencing our adversaries. It applies science to the challenge of shaping human behavior and represents an important step forward in the study of biological, psychological, and social approaches as they relate to cognitive engagement. By leveraging science, we may act more effectively to counter the intentions of adversaries and facilitate security and stability in regions worldwide.
We seek a weapon that could be used in combat situations, but its nonlethal aspects would also enable it to be used for civilian situations such as riot control. It should not produce excessive pain, one of the criticisms against the Active Denial System, and it should not have the possible neurological and cardiac effects of a Taser.
Conference Presentations by Rafael E . Linera Rivera
Twitter messages were limited to 140 characters during the Arab Spring, making it one of the most compacted social media platforms at the time. And even with Twitter’s 2017 increase to 280 characters, many ask and continue to study how people can get so much out of so little when engaging in Twitter conversations or exchanges. The question becomes even more interesting when activists communicate the vicissitudes of an ongoing event that is unfolding, dynamically, as was the case with Tahrir Square and the 25 January Revolution. The interaction between the ego (I, or self) and alter (other) while defining the object (sign, symbol, representation) is a simple but effective way to understand the relationship between Twitter dialogue and subsequent behavior.
It deals with broad topic of assessing options to gain better understanding of the subjective world of populations we need to interface and relate to. How can we reliably anticipate behavior patterns? Our challenge is gaining the most accurate and useful information for commanders and other agencies for planning purposes. Who are the right people to try to influence to achieve strategic goals (individuals and/or groups). Which behaviors are we targeting? Why do people display those particular behaviors? Finally, how do we coordinate operations to drive the desired behaviors? We cannot rely entirely on social media (we must blend it with other intelligence), even though it can be an important contributor. This White Paper is intended to provide recommendations for planning methodologies, technological approaches, and required expertise.
In the article entitled “Effects-Based Psychological Operations Measures of Effectiveness: Measuring Change and Impact,” LTC (Dr.) Greg Seese (JHU-APL), LTC (Dr.) Rafael Linera (USASOC), and Mr. Erinn McQuagge (Northrop Grumman) focus on current trends and methodologies in developing a comprehensive assessment and evaluation plan for behavior-focused Psychological Operations (PSYOP) programs. They state the mission of PSYOP is to influence behavior. Behavioral change is at the root of the PSYOP mission. Although concerned with the mental processes, it is the observable modification of behavior that determines mission success. Therefore, influence efforts must have clearly defined and measurable behavior-focused goals and objectives. They go on to state
that planning and evaluating the effectiveness of a PSYOP program can be a daunting task, but if measurable goals and objectives are developed, measure of effectiveness (MOE) questions are relatively straight forward to write. Properly crafted MOE’s are much easier to integrate into a supported unit’s intelligence collection plan and lend credence to the credibility of influence programs. They conclude by stating that the pragmatic framework presented demonstrates that it is possible to not only measure changes in behavior and the associated knowledge and beliefs, but also whether the program is having any impact.
The following volume contains the work of military and academic practitioners committed to understanding and influencing our nation’s adversaries. The ideas put forth by these authors represent efforts to develop scientifically informed approaches that address the operational challenges we face now and into the future. Contributing authors examine tactics that shape conditions and influence behavior through cognitive engagement; a concept that acknowledges the importance of psychological factors in modern conflict. The approaches to cognitive engagement discussed in this volume are ideally suited for Military Information Support Operations. They are also applicable to a wide range of military and interagency activities.
The work contained in the following pages focuses on how to operationalize scientifically informed approaches to understanding and influencing our adversaries. It applies science to the challenge of shaping human behavior and represents an important step forward in the study of biological, psychological, and social approaches as they relate to cognitive engagement. By leveraging science, we may act more effectively to counter the intentions of adversaries and facilitate security and stability in regions worldwide.
We seek a weapon that could be used in combat situations, but its nonlethal aspects would also enable it to be used for civilian situations such as riot control. It should not produce excessive pain, one of the criticisms against the Active Denial System, and it should not have the possible neurological and cardiac effects of a Taser.