The inside story of the rise of Ukip
A must-read book for all those interested in Ukip's quest t... more The inside story of the rise of Ukip
A must-read book for all those interested in Ukip's quest to redraw the map of British politics
Based on unprecedented access to the party and its key players - including Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell, and Mark Reckless
Includes behind the scenes observations from the campaign trail and more than one hundred interviews
Reveals what really happened during the 2015 general election campaign - and in the defections and by-elections which preceded it
Makes extensive use of British Election Study data from over five decades to answer important questions about what the rise of Ukip tells us about the changing political landscape of modern Britain
The UK Independence Party (Ukip) is the most significant new force in British politics for a generation. Under the leadership of Nigel Farage, the party has enjoyed a remarkable rise, winning the 2014 European Parliament elections as well as two parliamentary by-elections, and attracting mainstream defectors to achieve major party status. By the time of the 2015 general election, Farage and Ukip stood on the threshold of becoming a major force at Westminster.
This account is a must-read for anyone interested in the inside story of Ukip's quest to change British politics during one of the most unpredictable and dramatic elections in recent history. Based on unprecedented access to the party and its key players, the book pulls back the curtain on one of the most intriguing campaigns in living memory. It includes behind the scenes observations from the campaign trail and more than one hundred interviews - with leading Ukip insiders such as Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell, and Mark Reckless, as well as major donors, strategists, and figures from across the political landscape as they grappled with Ukip's rise.
Matthew Goodwin and Caitlin Milazzo reveal what really happened during the 2015 election campaign and in the by-elections and defections which preceded it, providing detailed accounts of the critical moments that shaped both the election itself and British politics more widely. The book also makes extensive use of British Election Study data from over five decades to answer important questions about the rise of Ukip and what it signifies. Who voted for Ukip and why? How are political loyalties in Britain changing over time? What are the deeper currents that have made Ukip's rise possible and will continue to shape its future? And what does the party's campaign for power reveal about the current evolution of British politics and society?
UKIP takes readers inside the campaign, telling for the first time the exciting inside story of a new party attempting to redraw the map of British politics.
Readership: All those interested in contemporary British politics - and what the immediate future holds for the United Kingdom
Since the 1990s, there has been a growing concern about the resurgence of extremist and radical m... more Since the 1990s, there has been a growing concern about the resurgence of extremist and radical movements in the Western world. Although a variety of challenges to the liberal democratic order have emerged, the main focus of concern among academics, policy-makers and practitioners within Europe and beyond has been on the growth and activities of Islamists and to a lesser extent the extreme right. However, these forms of extremism are seldom placed alongside each other, and in a manner that is sensitive to both the causes and consequences of extremist mobilization. This book presents new empirical research on the causes of these two ‘new’ extremisms in 21st Century Britain and the appropriate responses to it by both the state and civil society.
Both forms of extremism pose vital questions for those concerned with the development of a more cohesive and stable society. Unlike many studies, this volume adopts a holistic approach, bringing together experts from a variety of disciplines to examine the factors that cause support and the potential policy responses, including key questions such as:
•What is the current level of support for Islamism and right-wing extremism?
•Who votes for extreme right parties such as the BNP in modern Britain and, despite its recent gains, why has the extreme right achieved only limited success?
•What are the steps of recruitment into radical violent takfiri jihadism?
•How effective are current responses to Islamism and the extreme right, such as those offered by Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE), wider public policy and policing?
•What is the potential role of political actors, media and civil society in responding to the extremist challenge? Challenging broad assumptions and bringing together leading scholars in this rapidly developing field, this work is essential reading for all those with an interest in terrorism, fascism, political extremism, social cohesion and the future of race relations.
Despite a vast pan-European literature on extreme right parties (ERPs), few studies speak convinc... more Despite a vast pan-European literature on extreme right parties (ERPs), few studies speak convincingly to questions of party membership and activism. This article draws on a unique membership dataset to examine contextual predictors of membership of the British National Party (BNP), currently the dominant representative of the extreme right in British politics. We operationalize and test for the impact of both demand-side and supply-side factors, including the seldom examined effects of historical legacies, and of party activism and electoral success on membership levels. Aside from congregating in urban areas that are more deprived and have low education levels, we also find evidence of a 'legacy effect', whereby membership levels are higher in areas with a historic tradition of extreme right activism. This research is the first ever systematic investigation of national extreme right party membership.
The 2015 general election in Britain saw a major attempt by a relatively new party - the UK Indep... more The 2015 general election in Britain saw a major attempt by a relatively new party - the UK Independence Party (UKIP) - to secure elected representation. While UKIP received nearly four million votes, the party left the 2015 general election with just one Member of Parliament. Our evidence, drawn from analysis of British Election survey data and in-depth qualitative interviews with activists, suggests that UKIP’s campaign was a major factor in its inability to translate fairly widespread support into elected representation. While the party pursued a targeted campaign this had only a modest impact on its own vote. UKIP’s lack of resources, inexperience and inability to operationalize highly effective, targeted local campaigns severely hamstrung the party and prevented it from converting support into MPs at Westminster.
This contribution looks at how the issue of immigration evolved between 2010 and 2015 and how one... more This contribution looks at how the issue of immigration evolved between 2010 and 2015 and how one party in particular, UKIP, benefitted from this change at the general election. Using British Election Study data, we show that the inability of the Conservative Party to meet its manifesto promise of dramatically reducing net migration allowed UKIP to take ownership over one of the most salient issues in British politics. In doing so, UKIP’s potential for success in general elections was vastly increased as those voters with the most fervently anti-immigration outlooks, who also held negative attitudes towards British democracy and the European Union, increasingly gravitated toward Nigel Farage’s party. Unlike any other party, a majority of the public believed that UKIP recognised the importance of immigration and were the only party who would do something about it. We also argue that the increasingly tough rhetoric of the Labour Party on immigration was a factor in the rise of three parties whose ‘libertarian-universalistic’ ideologies were the polar opposite of UKIP’s ‘traditionalist-communitarian’ values, as the positively pro-immigration SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party all saw their vote shares increase.
Direct cross-group friendships have been widely found to not only diminish prejudice but induce g... more Direct cross-group friendships have been widely found to not only diminish prejudice but induce greater empathy, promote tolerance, enable members of majority groups to feel at ease with minorities as well as providing a gateway to wider cross-group networks. Put simply, as the quality of cross-group friendships increases, so does its prejudice-reducing effects. But do these relationships exist among those with more extreme or less tolerant views, such as supporters of parties on the extreme right of the political spectrum? Using a unique sample of self-identified supporters of three distinct types of right-wing groups, we examined whether direct cross-group friendships with immigrants reduce prejudice towards immigrants and Islam and whether diversity beliefs mediate this relationship. Our findings provide further evidence that building direct cross-group friendships is a highly effective tool in reducing prejudice towards both immigrants and Islam, among all three right-wing groups. While there were similar reductions among those supporting radical and extreme right parties, counter-Jihad movements experienced the largest decline in prejudicial attitudes.
Direct cross-group friendships have been widely found to not only diminish prejudice but induce g... more Direct cross-group friendships have been widely found to not only diminish prejudice but induce greater empathy, promote tolerance, enable members of majority groups to feel at ease with minorities as well as providing a gateway to wider cross-group networks. Put simply, as the quality of cross-group friendships increases, so does its prejudice-reducing effects. But do these relationships exist among those with more extreme or less tolerant views, such as supporters of parties on the extreme right of the political spectrum? Using a unique sample of self-identified supporters of three distinct types of right-wing groups, we examined whether direct cross-group friendships with immigrants reduce prejudice towards immigrants and Islam and whether diversity beliefs mediate this relationship. Our findings provide further evidence that building direct cross-group friendships is a highly effective tool in reducing prejudice towards both immigrants and Islam, among all three right-wing groups. While there were similar reductions among those supporting radical and extreme right parties, counter-Jihad movements experienced the largest decline in prejudicial attitudes.
In this article we explore the structural shifts which help explain the emergence of UKIP as a ma... more In this article we explore the structural shifts which help explain the emergence of UKIP as a major radical-right political force in Britain. There are two distinct, but related, aspects to this story. The first is the changes to Britain’s economic and social structure that have pushed to the margins a class of voters who we describe as the ‘left behind’: older, working- class, white voters with few educational qualifications. The second is long-term generational changes in the values that guide British society and shape the outlook of voters. These value shifts have also left older white working-class voters behind, as a worldview which was once seen as mainstream has become regarded as parochial and intolerant by the younger, university-educated, more socially liberal elites who define the political consensus of twenty-first-century Britain. We then move to consider the political changes that have further marginalised these voters, as first Labour and then the Conservatives focused their energies on recruiting and retaining support from middle-class, moderate swing voters. Finally, we show how UKIP has developed into an effective electoral machine which looks to win and retain the loyalties of these voters. Finally, we discuss the long-term implications of this revolt, which has the potential to change the nature of party competition in the 2015 election and beyond.
We examine the role of economic, cultural and safety threats in explaining prejudice towards thre... more We examine the role of economic, cultural and safety threats in explaining prejudice towards three minorities in Britain: Muslims, Black British and East Europeans; and how a real world political event impacts on the salience of such threats –and ultimately on prejudice– using the 2011 riots in England as a ‘situational trigger’. We conducted three national surveys –before, after and one year on from the riots– and show that after the riots individuals were more likely to perceive threats to society’s security and culture, and by extension exhibited increased prejudice. One year later levels of threat and prejudice had returned to pre-riot levels; however, results from a survey experiment show that priming memories of the riots raises levels of prejudice.
On 3 May 2012, voters went to the polls to elect councillors in 131 local authorities in England,... more On 3 May 2012, voters went to the polls to elect councillors in 131 local authorities in England, members of the Greater London Assembly and mayors in London, Liverpool and Salford. Coverage of the elections focused on the performance of an increasingly unpopular coalition government and an upsurge of support in the polls for the radical right UK Independence Party. One quieter story of the campaign concerned the extreme right British National Party (BNP), and the question of whether the 30-year old party would prove able to stem an electoral decline that followed a failed breakthrough attempt at the 2010 general election.1 Assessing the performance of the BNP at the 2012 elections, and the extreme right more generally, this article charts the decline of the former and examines the increasing fragmentation of the latter. After providing an agency-based explanation for why the BNP—once the most successful extreme right party in British history—returned to the electoral wildness and changed strategy, the article concludes by considering the implications of the party's decline for an increasingly chaotic and diverse extreme right scene.
In recent years several European states have seen the emergence of ‘counter-Jihad’ movements, whi... more In recent years several European states have seen the emergence of ‘counter-Jihad’ movements, which in contrast to the established populist radical right eschew electoral politics and put stronger emphasis on mobilizing opposition to Islam and Muslims. Despite attracting attention, counter-Jihad movements and the predictors of their support are under researched. Drawing on a new survey and sample of self-identified supporters, we investigate the predictors of public support for the English Defence League (EDL), the inaugural ‘defence league’ in Europe. Contrary to accounts that stress unemployment, apathy or single- issues, we find that support is concentrated among male workers, citizens with school-level education, who read tabloid newspapers, and vote for right-wing parties, but who are not more likely to be unemployed, in social housing, have no qualifications or be politically apathetic. Foremost, regression analysis confirms that the strongest predictor of their support is xenophobic hostility toward Muslims, and ethnic minorities more generally.
Britain has long been identified with a strong tradition of Euroscepticism, yet we know little ab... more Britain has long been identified with a strong tradition of Euroscepticism, yet we know little about the drivers of support for openly Eurosceptic parties. In this article, we draw on a unique large-scale dataset to undertake the first ever individual-level analysis of the social and attitudinal drivers of support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) at the 2009 elections to the European Parliament. We find that while Euroscepticism is the most important driver of UKIP support it is not the whole story. Other attitudinal drivers, namely dissatisfaction towards mainstream parties and xenophobia, are also important. Examining vote-switching between first and second order elections we also find evidence of a distinction between two types of supporter: more affluent and middle class ‘strategic defectors’ from the mainstream Conservative Party who support UKIP to register their Euroscepticism; on the other are more economically marginal and politically disaffected ‘core loyalists’ who are attracted to UKIP by its xenophobic, increasingly Islamophobic and populist anti-establishment strategy. UKIP also succeeds in attracting core support from groups such as women who have traditionally rejected extreme right parties such as the British National Party (BNP). Our analysis suggests that UKIP is well positioned to recruit a broader and more enduring base of support than the BNP and become a significant vehicle of xenophobia and, more specifically, Islamophobia in modern Britain.
The British National party (BNP) is the most successful extreme right party in Britain's electora... more The British National party (BNP) is the most successful extreme right party in Britain's electoral history and is the fastest growing political party in twenty-first century Britain. This article presents the first ever individual-level analysis of BNP supporters, utilising a survey data set uniquely compiled for this purpose. We find that support for the BNP is concentrated among older, less educated working-class men living in the declining industrial towns of the North and Midlands regions. This pattern of support is quite distinct from that which underpinned the last electorally relevant extreme right party in Britain – the National Front (NF) – whose base was young working-class men in Greater London and the West Midlands. Extreme right voters in contemporary Britain express exceptionally high levels of anxiety about immigration and disaffection with the mainstream political parties. Multi-level analysis of BNP support shows that the party prospers in areas with low education levels and large Muslim minority populations of Pakistani or African origin. The BNP has succeeded in mobilising a clearly defined support base: middle-aged working-class white men anxious about immigration, threatened by local Muslim communities and hostile to the existing political establishment. We conclude by noting that all the factors underpinning the BNP's emergence – high immigration levels, rising perceptions of identity conflict and the declining strength of the cultural and institutional ties binding voters to the main parties – are likely to persist in the coming years. The BNP therefore looks likely to consolidate itself as a persistent feature of the British political landscape.
The elections to the European Parliament (EP) held in June 2009 marked a breakthrough for the ext... more The elections to the European Parliament (EP) held in June 2009 marked a breakthrough for the extreme right British National Party (BNP), while in other European states extreme right parties (ERPs) similarly made gains. However, the attitudinal drivers of support for the BNP and ERPs more generally remain under-researched.This article draws on unique data that allow unprecedented insight into the attitudinal profile of ERP voters in Britain – an often neglected case in the wider literature. A series of possible motivational drivers of extreme right support are separated out: racial prejudice, anti-immigrant sentiment, protest against political elites, Euroscepticism, homophobia and Islamophobia. It is
found that BNP support in the 2009 EP elections was motivationally diverse, with racist hostility, xenophobia and protest voting all contributing significantly to BNP voting. The
analysis suggests that the BNP, which has long been a party stigmatised by associations with racism and violent extremism, made a key breakthrough in 2009.While racist motivations
remain the strongest driver of support for the party, it has also begun to win over a broader coalition of anti-immigrant and anti-elite voters.
The inside story of the rise of Ukip
A must-read book for all those interested in Ukip's quest t... more The inside story of the rise of Ukip
A must-read book for all those interested in Ukip's quest to redraw the map of British politics
Based on unprecedented access to the party and its key players - including Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell, and Mark Reckless
Includes behind the scenes observations from the campaign trail and more than one hundred interviews
Reveals what really happened during the 2015 general election campaign - and in the defections and by-elections which preceded it
Makes extensive use of British Election Study data from over five decades to answer important questions about what the rise of Ukip tells us about the changing political landscape of modern Britain
The UK Independence Party (Ukip) is the most significant new force in British politics for a generation. Under the leadership of Nigel Farage, the party has enjoyed a remarkable rise, winning the 2014 European Parliament elections as well as two parliamentary by-elections, and attracting mainstream defectors to achieve major party status. By the time of the 2015 general election, Farage and Ukip stood on the threshold of becoming a major force at Westminster.
This account is a must-read for anyone interested in the inside story of Ukip's quest to change British politics during one of the most unpredictable and dramatic elections in recent history. Based on unprecedented access to the party and its key players, the book pulls back the curtain on one of the most intriguing campaigns in living memory. It includes behind the scenes observations from the campaign trail and more than one hundred interviews - with leading Ukip insiders such as Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell, and Mark Reckless, as well as major donors, strategists, and figures from across the political landscape as they grappled with Ukip's rise.
Matthew Goodwin and Caitlin Milazzo reveal what really happened during the 2015 election campaign and in the by-elections and defections which preceded it, providing detailed accounts of the critical moments that shaped both the election itself and British politics more widely. The book also makes extensive use of British Election Study data from over five decades to answer important questions about the rise of Ukip and what it signifies. Who voted for Ukip and why? How are political loyalties in Britain changing over time? What are the deeper currents that have made Ukip's rise possible and will continue to shape its future? And what does the party's campaign for power reveal about the current evolution of British politics and society?
UKIP takes readers inside the campaign, telling for the first time the exciting inside story of a new party attempting to redraw the map of British politics.
Readership: All those interested in contemporary British politics - and what the immediate future holds for the United Kingdom
Since the 1990s, there has been a growing concern about the resurgence of extremist and radical m... more Since the 1990s, there has been a growing concern about the resurgence of extremist and radical movements in the Western world. Although a variety of challenges to the liberal democratic order have emerged, the main focus of concern among academics, policy-makers and practitioners within Europe and beyond has been on the growth and activities of Islamists and to a lesser extent the extreme right. However, these forms of extremism are seldom placed alongside each other, and in a manner that is sensitive to both the causes and consequences of extremist mobilization. This book presents new empirical research on the causes of these two ‘new’ extremisms in 21st Century Britain and the appropriate responses to it by both the state and civil society.
Both forms of extremism pose vital questions for those concerned with the development of a more cohesive and stable society. Unlike many studies, this volume adopts a holistic approach, bringing together experts from a variety of disciplines to examine the factors that cause support and the potential policy responses, including key questions such as:
•What is the current level of support for Islamism and right-wing extremism?
•Who votes for extreme right parties such as the BNP in modern Britain and, despite its recent gains, why has the extreme right achieved only limited success?
•What are the steps of recruitment into radical violent takfiri jihadism?
•How effective are current responses to Islamism and the extreme right, such as those offered by Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE), wider public policy and policing?
•What is the potential role of political actors, media and civil society in responding to the extremist challenge? Challenging broad assumptions and bringing together leading scholars in this rapidly developing field, this work is essential reading for all those with an interest in terrorism, fascism, political extremism, social cohesion and the future of race relations.
Despite a vast pan-European literature on extreme right parties (ERPs), few studies speak convinc... more Despite a vast pan-European literature on extreme right parties (ERPs), few studies speak convincingly to questions of party membership and activism. This article draws on a unique membership dataset to examine contextual predictors of membership of the British National Party (BNP), currently the dominant representative of the extreme right in British politics. We operationalize and test for the impact of both demand-side and supply-side factors, including the seldom examined effects of historical legacies, and of party activism and electoral success on membership levels. Aside from congregating in urban areas that are more deprived and have low education levels, we also find evidence of a 'legacy effect', whereby membership levels are higher in areas with a historic tradition of extreme right activism. This research is the first ever systematic investigation of national extreme right party membership.
The 2015 general election in Britain saw a major attempt by a relatively new party - the UK Indep... more The 2015 general election in Britain saw a major attempt by a relatively new party - the UK Independence Party (UKIP) - to secure elected representation. While UKIP received nearly four million votes, the party left the 2015 general election with just one Member of Parliament. Our evidence, drawn from analysis of British Election survey data and in-depth qualitative interviews with activists, suggests that UKIP’s campaign was a major factor in its inability to translate fairly widespread support into elected representation. While the party pursued a targeted campaign this had only a modest impact on its own vote. UKIP’s lack of resources, inexperience and inability to operationalize highly effective, targeted local campaigns severely hamstrung the party and prevented it from converting support into MPs at Westminster.
This contribution looks at how the issue of immigration evolved between 2010 and 2015 and how one... more This contribution looks at how the issue of immigration evolved between 2010 and 2015 and how one party in particular, UKIP, benefitted from this change at the general election. Using British Election Study data, we show that the inability of the Conservative Party to meet its manifesto promise of dramatically reducing net migration allowed UKIP to take ownership over one of the most salient issues in British politics. In doing so, UKIP’s potential for success in general elections was vastly increased as those voters with the most fervently anti-immigration outlooks, who also held negative attitudes towards British democracy and the European Union, increasingly gravitated toward Nigel Farage’s party. Unlike any other party, a majority of the public believed that UKIP recognised the importance of immigration and were the only party who would do something about it. We also argue that the increasingly tough rhetoric of the Labour Party on immigration was a factor in the rise of three parties whose ‘libertarian-universalistic’ ideologies were the polar opposite of UKIP’s ‘traditionalist-communitarian’ values, as the positively pro-immigration SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party all saw their vote shares increase.
Direct cross-group friendships have been widely found to not only diminish prejudice but induce g... more Direct cross-group friendships have been widely found to not only diminish prejudice but induce greater empathy, promote tolerance, enable members of majority groups to feel at ease with minorities as well as providing a gateway to wider cross-group networks. Put simply, as the quality of cross-group friendships increases, so does its prejudice-reducing effects. But do these relationships exist among those with more extreme or less tolerant views, such as supporters of parties on the extreme right of the political spectrum? Using a unique sample of self-identified supporters of three distinct types of right-wing groups, we examined whether direct cross-group friendships with immigrants reduce prejudice towards immigrants and Islam and whether diversity beliefs mediate this relationship. Our findings provide further evidence that building direct cross-group friendships is a highly effective tool in reducing prejudice towards both immigrants and Islam, among all three right-wing groups. While there were similar reductions among those supporting radical and extreme right parties, counter-Jihad movements experienced the largest decline in prejudicial attitudes.
Direct cross-group friendships have been widely found to not only diminish prejudice but induce g... more Direct cross-group friendships have been widely found to not only diminish prejudice but induce greater empathy, promote tolerance, enable members of majority groups to feel at ease with minorities as well as providing a gateway to wider cross-group networks. Put simply, as the quality of cross-group friendships increases, so does its prejudice-reducing effects. But do these relationships exist among those with more extreme or less tolerant views, such as supporters of parties on the extreme right of the political spectrum? Using a unique sample of self-identified supporters of three distinct types of right-wing groups, we examined whether direct cross-group friendships with immigrants reduce prejudice towards immigrants and Islam and whether diversity beliefs mediate this relationship. Our findings provide further evidence that building direct cross-group friendships is a highly effective tool in reducing prejudice towards both immigrants and Islam, among all three right-wing groups. While there were similar reductions among those supporting radical and extreme right parties, counter-Jihad movements experienced the largest decline in prejudicial attitudes.
In this article we explore the structural shifts which help explain the emergence of UKIP as a ma... more In this article we explore the structural shifts which help explain the emergence of UKIP as a major radical-right political force in Britain. There are two distinct, but related, aspects to this story. The first is the changes to Britain’s economic and social structure that have pushed to the margins a class of voters who we describe as the ‘left behind’: older, working- class, white voters with few educational qualifications. The second is long-term generational changes in the values that guide British society and shape the outlook of voters. These value shifts have also left older white working-class voters behind, as a worldview which was once seen as mainstream has become regarded as parochial and intolerant by the younger, university-educated, more socially liberal elites who define the political consensus of twenty-first-century Britain. We then move to consider the political changes that have further marginalised these voters, as first Labour and then the Conservatives focused their energies on recruiting and retaining support from middle-class, moderate swing voters. Finally, we show how UKIP has developed into an effective electoral machine which looks to win and retain the loyalties of these voters. Finally, we discuss the long-term implications of this revolt, which has the potential to change the nature of party competition in the 2015 election and beyond.
We examine the role of economic, cultural and safety threats in explaining prejudice towards thre... more We examine the role of economic, cultural and safety threats in explaining prejudice towards three minorities in Britain: Muslims, Black British and East Europeans; and how a real world political event impacts on the salience of such threats –and ultimately on prejudice– using the 2011 riots in England as a ‘situational trigger’. We conducted three national surveys –before, after and one year on from the riots– and show that after the riots individuals were more likely to perceive threats to society’s security and culture, and by extension exhibited increased prejudice. One year later levels of threat and prejudice had returned to pre-riot levels; however, results from a survey experiment show that priming memories of the riots raises levels of prejudice.
On 3 May 2012, voters went to the polls to elect councillors in 131 local authorities in England,... more On 3 May 2012, voters went to the polls to elect councillors in 131 local authorities in England, members of the Greater London Assembly and mayors in London, Liverpool and Salford. Coverage of the elections focused on the performance of an increasingly unpopular coalition government and an upsurge of support in the polls for the radical right UK Independence Party. One quieter story of the campaign concerned the extreme right British National Party (BNP), and the question of whether the 30-year old party would prove able to stem an electoral decline that followed a failed breakthrough attempt at the 2010 general election.1 Assessing the performance of the BNP at the 2012 elections, and the extreme right more generally, this article charts the decline of the former and examines the increasing fragmentation of the latter. After providing an agency-based explanation for why the BNP—once the most successful extreme right party in British history—returned to the electoral wildness and changed strategy, the article concludes by considering the implications of the party's decline for an increasingly chaotic and diverse extreme right scene.
In recent years several European states have seen the emergence of ‘counter-Jihad’ movements, whi... more In recent years several European states have seen the emergence of ‘counter-Jihad’ movements, which in contrast to the established populist radical right eschew electoral politics and put stronger emphasis on mobilizing opposition to Islam and Muslims. Despite attracting attention, counter-Jihad movements and the predictors of their support are under researched. Drawing on a new survey and sample of self-identified supporters, we investigate the predictors of public support for the English Defence League (EDL), the inaugural ‘defence league’ in Europe. Contrary to accounts that stress unemployment, apathy or single- issues, we find that support is concentrated among male workers, citizens with school-level education, who read tabloid newspapers, and vote for right-wing parties, but who are not more likely to be unemployed, in social housing, have no qualifications or be politically apathetic. Foremost, regression analysis confirms that the strongest predictor of their support is xenophobic hostility toward Muslims, and ethnic minorities more generally.
Britain has long been identified with a strong tradition of Euroscepticism, yet we know little ab... more Britain has long been identified with a strong tradition of Euroscepticism, yet we know little about the drivers of support for openly Eurosceptic parties. In this article, we draw on a unique large-scale dataset to undertake the first ever individual-level analysis of the social and attitudinal drivers of support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) at the 2009 elections to the European Parliament. We find that while Euroscepticism is the most important driver of UKIP support it is not the whole story. Other attitudinal drivers, namely dissatisfaction towards mainstream parties and xenophobia, are also important. Examining vote-switching between first and second order elections we also find evidence of a distinction between two types of supporter: more affluent and middle class ‘strategic defectors’ from the mainstream Conservative Party who support UKIP to register their Euroscepticism; on the other are more economically marginal and politically disaffected ‘core loyalists’ who are attracted to UKIP by its xenophobic, increasingly Islamophobic and populist anti-establishment strategy. UKIP also succeeds in attracting core support from groups such as women who have traditionally rejected extreme right parties such as the British National Party (BNP). Our analysis suggests that UKIP is well positioned to recruit a broader and more enduring base of support than the BNP and become a significant vehicle of xenophobia and, more specifically, Islamophobia in modern Britain.
The British National party (BNP) is the most successful extreme right party in Britain's electora... more The British National party (BNP) is the most successful extreme right party in Britain's electoral history and is the fastest growing political party in twenty-first century Britain. This article presents the first ever individual-level analysis of BNP supporters, utilising a survey data set uniquely compiled for this purpose. We find that support for the BNP is concentrated among older, less educated working-class men living in the declining industrial towns of the North and Midlands regions. This pattern of support is quite distinct from that which underpinned the last electorally relevant extreme right party in Britain – the National Front (NF) – whose base was young working-class men in Greater London and the West Midlands. Extreme right voters in contemporary Britain express exceptionally high levels of anxiety about immigration and disaffection with the mainstream political parties. Multi-level analysis of BNP support shows that the party prospers in areas with low education levels and large Muslim minority populations of Pakistani or African origin. The BNP has succeeded in mobilising a clearly defined support base: middle-aged working-class white men anxious about immigration, threatened by local Muslim communities and hostile to the existing political establishment. We conclude by noting that all the factors underpinning the BNP's emergence – high immigration levels, rising perceptions of identity conflict and the declining strength of the cultural and institutional ties binding voters to the main parties – are likely to persist in the coming years. The BNP therefore looks likely to consolidate itself as a persistent feature of the British political landscape.
The elections to the European Parliament (EP) held in June 2009 marked a breakthrough for the ext... more The elections to the European Parliament (EP) held in June 2009 marked a breakthrough for the extreme right British National Party (BNP), while in other European states extreme right parties (ERPs) similarly made gains. However, the attitudinal drivers of support for the BNP and ERPs more generally remain under-researched.This article draws on unique data that allow unprecedented insight into the attitudinal profile of ERP voters in Britain – an often neglected case in the wider literature. A series of possible motivational drivers of extreme right support are separated out: racial prejudice, anti-immigrant sentiment, protest against political elites, Euroscepticism, homophobia and Islamophobia. It is
found that BNP support in the 2009 EP elections was motivationally diverse, with racist hostility, xenophobia and protest voting all contributing significantly to BNP voting. The
analysis suggests that the BNP, which has long been a party stigmatised by associations with racism and violent extremism, made a key breakthrough in 2009.While racist motivations
remain the strongest driver of support for the party, it has also begun to win over a broader coalition of anti-immigrant and anti-elite voters.
Whilst the electoral performance of contemporary extreme right parties has generated much interes... more Whilst the electoral performance of contemporary extreme right parties has generated much interest there are few studies of extreme right party activists. Focusing on the case of the British National Party (BNP) this article investigates who oins the extreme right and considers the motive for active participation. The study draws on qualitative life-history interviews with activists and analysis of internally-orientated party literature. Like its electorate, the BNP recruits much of its active support from older working-class males, though “types” of activist who are drawn to the party and who follow quite different routes into the extreme right are identified. In terms of the motive for activism, findings suggest the importance of ideological motives and collective incentives, in particular ethnic nationalist beliefs and a desire to defend the native in-group from perceived threats. In conclusion, the article raises implications for the study of extreme right parties and activism.
This paper reports the results of a school-based randomised control trial of 448 primary school s... more This paper reports the results of a school-based randomised control trial of 448 primary school students and their families in twenty-seven primary schools located in Vale Royal, North West England carried out between January and July 2008. The interventions were two types of class-based instruction on environmental issues, one long and the other short, which were designed to increase environmental awareness. Environmental attitudes and behaviours were measured by surveys completed before and after the interventions by the students in their classes and in their homes. The analysis reports school averages of the questionnaire responses, followed by regression analysis using robust clustered standard errors. The results show no statistically significant
differences between schools in the intervention groups compared to the control group schools. The rising environmental awareness of the control group during the intervention may partly explain the positive results of existing nonexperimental studies.
Failing to learn from past research, studies that investigate the relationship between threat and... more Failing to learn from past research, studies that investigate the relationship between threat and prejudice often employ questions that 'couple' perceived threats and attitudes to minorities and do not control for attitudes to the native in-group. Using a national survey, in this research note we replicate, update and expand innovative research by Sniderman and colleagues, using the 'decoupling' approach to reveal how distinct types of threat motivate prejudice toward three minority groups in Britain. Our results confirm the primacy of cultural over economic threats in motivating hostility toward minority groups, and suggest that safety concerns have gained prominence. By controlling for attitudes toward the native in-group we also reveal the importance of accounting for generalized hostility when studying prejudice.
Uploads
Books by Matthew Goodwin
A must-read book for all those interested in Ukip's quest to redraw the map of British politics
Based on unprecedented access to the party and its key players - including Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell, and Mark Reckless
Includes behind the scenes observations from the campaign trail and more than one hundred interviews
Reveals what really happened during the 2015 general election campaign - and in the defections and by-elections which preceded it
Makes extensive use of British Election Study data from over five decades to answer important questions about what the rise of Ukip tells us about the changing political landscape of modern Britain
The UK Independence Party (Ukip) is the most significant new force in British politics for a generation. Under the leadership of Nigel Farage, the party has enjoyed a remarkable rise, winning the 2014 European Parliament elections as well as two parliamentary by-elections, and attracting mainstream defectors to achieve major party status. By the time of the 2015 general election, Farage and Ukip stood on the threshold of becoming a major force at Westminster.
This account is a must-read for anyone interested in the inside story of Ukip's quest to change British politics during one of the most unpredictable and dramatic elections in recent history. Based on unprecedented access to the party and its key players, the book pulls back the curtain on one of the most intriguing campaigns in living memory. It includes behind the scenes observations from the campaign trail and more than one hundred interviews - with leading Ukip insiders such as Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell, and Mark Reckless, as well as major donors, strategists, and figures from across the political landscape as they grappled with Ukip's rise.
Matthew Goodwin and Caitlin Milazzo reveal what really happened during the 2015 election campaign and in the by-elections and defections which preceded it, providing detailed accounts of the critical moments that shaped both the election itself and British politics more widely. The book also makes extensive use of British Election Study data from over five decades to answer important questions about the rise of Ukip and what it signifies. Who voted for Ukip and why? How are political loyalties in Britain changing over time? What are the deeper currents that have made Ukip's rise possible and will continue to shape its future? And what does the party's campaign for power reveal about the current evolution of British politics and society?
UKIP takes readers inside the campaign, telling for the first time the exciting inside story of a new party attempting to redraw the map of British politics.
Readership: All those interested in contemporary British politics - and what the immediate future holds for the United Kingdom
Both forms of extremism pose vital questions for those concerned with the development of a more cohesive and stable society. Unlike many studies, this volume adopts a holistic approach, bringing together experts from a variety of disciplines to examine the factors that cause support and the potential policy responses, including key questions such as:
•What is the current level of support for Islamism and right-wing extremism?
•Who votes for extreme right parties such as the BNP in modern Britain and, despite its recent gains, why has the extreme right achieved only limited success?
•What are the steps of recruitment into radical violent takfiri jihadism?
•How effective are current responses to Islamism and the extreme right, such as those offered by Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE), wider public policy and policing?
•What is the potential role of political actors, media and civil society in responding to the extremist challenge?
Challenging broad assumptions and bringing together leading scholars in this rapidly developing field, this work is essential reading for all those with an interest in terrorism, fascism, political extremism, social cohesion and the future of race relations.
Papers by Matthew Goodwin
found that BNP support in the 2009 EP elections was motivationally diverse, with racist hostility, xenophobia and protest voting all contributing significantly to BNP voting. The
analysis suggests that the BNP, which has long been a party stigmatised by associations with racism and violent extremism, made a key breakthrough in 2009.While racist motivations
remain the strongest driver of support for the party, it has also begun to win over a broader coalition of anti-immigrant and anti-elite voters.
A must-read book for all those interested in Ukip's quest to redraw the map of British politics
Based on unprecedented access to the party and its key players - including Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell, and Mark Reckless
Includes behind the scenes observations from the campaign trail and more than one hundred interviews
Reveals what really happened during the 2015 general election campaign - and in the defections and by-elections which preceded it
Makes extensive use of British Election Study data from over five decades to answer important questions about what the rise of Ukip tells us about the changing political landscape of modern Britain
The UK Independence Party (Ukip) is the most significant new force in British politics for a generation. Under the leadership of Nigel Farage, the party has enjoyed a remarkable rise, winning the 2014 European Parliament elections as well as two parliamentary by-elections, and attracting mainstream defectors to achieve major party status. By the time of the 2015 general election, Farage and Ukip stood on the threshold of becoming a major force at Westminster.
This account is a must-read for anyone interested in the inside story of Ukip's quest to change British politics during one of the most unpredictable and dramatic elections in recent history. Based on unprecedented access to the party and its key players, the book pulls back the curtain on one of the most intriguing campaigns in living memory. It includes behind the scenes observations from the campaign trail and more than one hundred interviews - with leading Ukip insiders such as Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell, and Mark Reckless, as well as major donors, strategists, and figures from across the political landscape as they grappled with Ukip's rise.
Matthew Goodwin and Caitlin Milazzo reveal what really happened during the 2015 election campaign and in the by-elections and defections which preceded it, providing detailed accounts of the critical moments that shaped both the election itself and British politics more widely. The book also makes extensive use of British Election Study data from over five decades to answer important questions about the rise of Ukip and what it signifies. Who voted for Ukip and why? How are political loyalties in Britain changing over time? What are the deeper currents that have made Ukip's rise possible and will continue to shape its future? And what does the party's campaign for power reveal about the current evolution of British politics and society?
UKIP takes readers inside the campaign, telling for the first time the exciting inside story of a new party attempting to redraw the map of British politics.
Readership: All those interested in contemporary British politics - and what the immediate future holds for the United Kingdom
Both forms of extremism pose vital questions for those concerned with the development of a more cohesive and stable society. Unlike many studies, this volume adopts a holistic approach, bringing together experts from a variety of disciplines to examine the factors that cause support and the potential policy responses, including key questions such as:
•What is the current level of support for Islamism and right-wing extremism?
•Who votes for extreme right parties such as the BNP in modern Britain and, despite its recent gains, why has the extreme right achieved only limited success?
•What are the steps of recruitment into radical violent takfiri jihadism?
•How effective are current responses to Islamism and the extreme right, such as those offered by Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE), wider public policy and policing?
•What is the potential role of political actors, media and civil society in responding to the extremist challenge?
Challenging broad assumptions and bringing together leading scholars in this rapidly developing field, this work is essential reading for all those with an interest in terrorism, fascism, political extremism, social cohesion and the future of race relations.
found that BNP support in the 2009 EP elections was motivationally diverse, with racist hostility, xenophobia and protest voting all contributing significantly to BNP voting. The
analysis suggests that the BNP, which has long been a party stigmatised by associations with racism and violent extremism, made a key breakthrough in 2009.While racist motivations
remain the strongest driver of support for the party, it has also begun to win over a broader coalition of anti-immigrant and anti-elite voters.
differences between schools in the intervention groups compared to the control group schools. The rising environmental awareness of the control group during the intervention may partly explain the positive results of existing nonexperimental studies.