I am Professor of Politics at the University of Leeds. I am also editor of Palgrave Macmillan's "French Politics, Society and Culture" monograph series. My research interests cover European politics and electoral behaviour, with a particular focus on France. I also work on aspects of electoral forecasting, especially predicting third-party support.
French Politics, Society and Culture
Palgrave Macmillan
http://us.macmillan.com/series/FrenchPoliticsSocietyandCulture Address: POLIS
University of Leeds
UK
This four-volume collection provides a rich overview of one of the core areas of political scienc... more This four-volume collection provides a rich overview of one of the core areas of political science research: voting. The quantitative study of voting behaviour (psepholgy) in particular has developed as a highly specialised field since the 1980s and has spawned a vast literature from a wide array of theoretical perspectives and methodological approaches. This set maps out the development of psephology in the post-war period to its current state, and covers the following broad themes:
Historical evolution of voting studies Sociological models Cognition and the voter calculus Electoral systems The electoral context Debates and methodology
This accessible textbook provides a comprehensive introduction and guide to theories of voting an... more This accessible textbook provides a comprehensive introduction and guide to theories of voting and electoral behaviour.
The text introduces the concept of voting and traces the historical origins and development of voting theories up to and including present-day techniques and models.
Approaches reviewed include the early social and psychological models, through the rational choice, spatial modelling and economic theories, to the more sophisticated contemporary models. By carefully presenting and explaining the major technical and methodological advances made in voting studies, the text serves to provide a complete review of the different approaches and techniques that have characterized this area of study from its origins to the present day.
The book includes separate chapters on abstention and electoral competition, and employs a range of empirical examples from a number of countries. It concludes by looking at how voting studies might evolve in the future.
Voters and Voting: An Introduction will be essential reading for all students of electoral and political behaviour across the social and political sciences.
This text provides an overview of political parties in France. The social and ideological profile... more This text provides an overview of political parties in France. The social and ideological profiles of all the major parties are analysed, chapter by chapter, highlighting their principal functions and dynamics within the system. This examination is complemented by analyses of bloc and system features, including the pluralist left, Europe, and the ideological space in which the parties operate. In particular, the book addresses the impressive capacity of French parties and their leaders to adapt themselves to the changing concerns of their electorates and to a shifting institutional context. Contrary to the apparently fragmentary system and increasingly hostile clashes between political personalities, the continuities in the French political system seem destined to persist.
Populist radical right (PRR) parties are more successful in some areas than others, which has fue... more Populist radical right (PRR) parties are more successful in some areas than others, which has fuelled the study of the role of context in shaping such support. However, on closer observation it becomes apparent that they thrive in areas that are actually quite different in their outlook. In this paper, which is based on a unique four-country comparative dataset of geocoded survey and contextual data, we argue and show that context does matter. However, we argue and show our understanding should be enhanced in two ways. First, by acknowledging that contextual effects are conditional, given that it has been demonstrated that some citizens are less likely to be affected by local grievances than others. Second, by studying the mechanisms linking contextual factors to political behaviour. We hypothesize that contextual developments, such as rising levels of immigration, might generate a generalized sense of local decline, which might in turn be translated into a broader set of grievances...
European Parliament elections were held from 22 – 25 May. We asked a number of experts to comment... more European Parliament elections were held from 22 – 25 May. We asked a number of experts to comment on the results and what the elections mean for individual countries across Europe. The Front National is now an equal player across the whole of France, and no longer merely a ‘nuisance’ to the mainstream – Jocelyn Evans – University of Leeds Farage’s world is an authoritarian fantasy – Mary Evans – LSE Gender Institute The most interesting development in Germany is the ascendancy of the Eurosceptic Alternative fur Deutschland– Kai Arzheimer – University of Mainz Despite the headlines about Euroscepticism, the voice of those worst affected by the crisis is now louder. Could it be that a more sanguine reading of these electoral results is warranted? – Iain Begg – LSE European Institute Unlike the other radical right-wing parties is Europe, the Golden Dawn has managed to attract voters from across the party system in Greece – Sofia Vasilopoulou, University of York, and Daphne Halikiopoulo...
This paper examines the relationship between immigration and populist radical right (PRR) support... more This paper examines the relationship between immigration and populist radical right (PRR) support, based on an analysis of the contextual effects of immigrant presence on Front National vote in France in 2017. Using a unique set of survey data geolocalising respondents at the subcommunal level, it finds evidence for the existence of a curvilinear “halo effect,” with substantial increases in the probability of PRR vote in areas surrounding communities with significantly higher-than-average immigrant populations, and independent of other socio-economic context, as well as individual socio-demographic characteristics. Most importantly, a path analysis confirms the presence of individual attitudinal mediators of this halo effect on PRR vote, thus testing the foundation of the halo, namely that the contextual effects of immigrant presence act on attitudes which drive PRR support. These findings provide a significant step forward in understanding the mechanisms linking subjective experien...
The Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata, 2016
Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. ... more Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opinion Quarterly 69: 342-369) propose such a measure A for the two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22: 31-44) demonstrate how measures A'i, B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias, surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population is known (for example, through census data).
This four-volume collection provides a rich overview of one of the core areas of political scienc... more This four-volume collection provides a rich overview of one of the core areas of political science research: voting. The quantitative study of voting behaviour (psepholgy) in particular has developed as a highly specialised field since the 1980s and has spawned a vast literature from a wide array of theoretical perspectives and methodological approaches. This set maps out the development of psephology in the post-war period to its current state, and covers the following broad themes:
Historical evolution of voting studies Sociological models Cognition and the voter calculus Electoral systems The electoral context Debates and methodology
This accessible textbook provides a comprehensive introduction and guide to theories of voting an... more This accessible textbook provides a comprehensive introduction and guide to theories of voting and electoral behaviour.
The text introduces the concept of voting and traces the historical origins and development of voting theories up to and including present-day techniques and models.
Approaches reviewed include the early social and psychological models, through the rational choice, spatial modelling and economic theories, to the more sophisticated contemporary models. By carefully presenting and explaining the major technical and methodological advances made in voting studies, the text serves to provide a complete review of the different approaches and techniques that have characterized this area of study from its origins to the present day.
The book includes separate chapters on abstention and electoral competition, and employs a range of empirical examples from a number of countries. It concludes by looking at how voting studies might evolve in the future.
Voters and Voting: An Introduction will be essential reading for all students of electoral and political behaviour across the social and political sciences.
This text provides an overview of political parties in France. The social and ideological profile... more This text provides an overview of political parties in France. The social and ideological profiles of all the major parties are analysed, chapter by chapter, highlighting their principal functions and dynamics within the system. This examination is complemented by analyses of bloc and system features, including the pluralist left, Europe, and the ideological space in which the parties operate. In particular, the book addresses the impressive capacity of French parties and their leaders to adapt themselves to the changing concerns of their electorates and to a shifting institutional context. Contrary to the apparently fragmentary system and increasingly hostile clashes between political personalities, the continuities in the French political system seem destined to persist.
Populist radical right (PRR) parties are more successful in some areas than others, which has fue... more Populist radical right (PRR) parties are more successful in some areas than others, which has fuelled the study of the role of context in shaping such support. However, on closer observation it becomes apparent that they thrive in areas that are actually quite different in their outlook. In this paper, which is based on a unique four-country comparative dataset of geocoded survey and contextual data, we argue and show that context does matter. However, we argue and show our understanding should be enhanced in two ways. First, by acknowledging that contextual effects are conditional, given that it has been demonstrated that some citizens are less likely to be affected by local grievances than others. Second, by studying the mechanisms linking contextual factors to political behaviour. We hypothesize that contextual developments, such as rising levels of immigration, might generate a generalized sense of local decline, which might in turn be translated into a broader set of grievances...
European Parliament elections were held from 22 – 25 May. We asked a number of experts to comment... more European Parliament elections were held from 22 – 25 May. We asked a number of experts to comment on the results and what the elections mean for individual countries across Europe. The Front National is now an equal player across the whole of France, and no longer merely a ‘nuisance’ to the mainstream – Jocelyn Evans – University of Leeds Farage’s world is an authoritarian fantasy – Mary Evans – LSE Gender Institute The most interesting development in Germany is the ascendancy of the Eurosceptic Alternative fur Deutschland– Kai Arzheimer – University of Mainz Despite the headlines about Euroscepticism, the voice of those worst affected by the crisis is now louder. Could it be that a more sanguine reading of these electoral results is warranted? – Iain Begg – LSE European Institute Unlike the other radical right-wing parties is Europe, the Golden Dawn has managed to attract voters from across the party system in Greece – Sofia Vasilopoulou, University of York, and Daphne Halikiopoulo...
This paper examines the relationship between immigration and populist radical right (PRR) support... more This paper examines the relationship between immigration and populist radical right (PRR) support, based on an analysis of the contextual effects of immigrant presence on Front National vote in France in 2017. Using a unique set of survey data geolocalising respondents at the subcommunal level, it finds evidence for the existence of a curvilinear “halo effect,” with substantial increases in the probability of PRR vote in areas surrounding communities with significantly higher-than-average immigrant populations, and independent of other socio-economic context, as well as individual socio-demographic characteristics. Most importantly, a path analysis confirms the presence of individual attitudinal mediators of this halo effect on PRR vote, thus testing the foundation of the halo, namely that the contextual effects of immigrant presence act on attitudes which drive PRR support. These findings provide a significant step forward in understanding the mechanisms linking subjective experien...
The Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata, 2016
Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. ... more Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opinion Quarterly 69: 342-369) propose such a measure A for the two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22: 31-44) demonstrate how measures A'i, B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias, surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population is known (for example, through census data).
The degree of ‘localness’ of candidates, including their residential location, has long been theo... more The degree of ‘localness’ of candidates, including their residential location, has long been theorised to influence voters at election time. Individual-level tests of distance effects in the 2010 British general elections demonstrated that, controlling for standard explanations of vote, the distance from a voter’s home to that of the candidate was negatively associated with the likelihood of voting for that candidate. To test this theory in a sub-national electoral context more likely to produce distance effects than a national election, this paper builds upon previous analysis by using the 2013 English County Council elections. It improves upon the previous analysis in a number of ways, analysing an election where ‘localness’ effects would be expected to be stronger; combining a bespoke YouGov survey of voters with more precise locational data; including United Kingdom Independent Party candidates in its specification; and considering more closely how voters construe distance. It f...
The capacity of political parties to embrace radicalism in their programmes is mediated not just ... more The capacity of political parties to embrace radicalism in their programmes is mediated not just by internal ideological divisions and by the appeal of the programme to the electorate, but equally with how such stances conflict and compete with other parties within the system. For example, the ideological appeal of the Socialist Party in the 1970s was strong influenced by the Communist Party's own Weltanschauung. Similarly, social conservative rhetoric by the RPR/UMP has responded directly - and in different ways - to FN radicalisation of the same area. Similar dynamics can be seen amongst the actors embodying the greater radicalism, with regard to coalition choices within the gauche plurielle in the 1990s over New Left issues, and even institutional opposition - anti-system stances being perhaps the most radical policies within democratic polities - amongst former centrist actors of the Fourth Republic with regard to the Fifth. This contribution to the round table will examine historical instances of systemic determination of the success (or otherwise) of 'new radicalism' amongst party actors in the French political system, and why little of this has resulted in veritable political renewal since the 1950s.
It is well known that citizens tend to blame the government for economic hardship, and that they ... more It is well known that citizens tend to blame the government for economic hardship, and that they see legislative elections as an opportunity "to throw the rascals out". However, while this mechanism has been thoroughly explored as a basis for election forecasting in the US and many Western European countries , less research has been carried out on the semi-presidential case of France. In a bid to shed some light on this question over time, we try to predict support for the incumbent parties in French legislative elections from regional economic conditions and political traditions. Building upon work by Auberger and Jerome and Jerome-Speziari, we adopt a time-series approach on data from 1981 forwards to look for evidence of variation at departmental level in support for incumbent parties and economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation, lagged by previous election score. We additionally control for regime and election type to look for evidence of lesser clarity in economic blame in proportional electoral systems. We then assess the model’s efficacy in retrodicting first-round legislative election results in France.
Uploads
Historical evolution of voting studies
Sociological models
Cognition and the voter calculus
Electoral systems
The electoral context
Debates and methodology
The text introduces the concept of voting and traces the historical origins and development of voting theories up to and including present-day techniques and models.
Approaches reviewed include the early social and psychological models, through the rational choice, spatial modelling and economic theories, to the more sophisticated contemporary models. By carefully presenting and explaining the major technical and methodological advances made in voting studies, the text serves to provide a complete review of the different approaches and techniques that have characterized this area of study from its origins to the present day.
The book includes separate chapters on abstention and electoral competition, and employs a range of empirical examples from a number of countries. It concludes by looking at how voting studies might evolve in the future.
Voters and Voting: An Introduction will be essential reading for all students of electoral and political behaviour across the social and political sciences.
Historical evolution of voting studies
Sociological models
Cognition and the voter calculus
Electoral systems
The electoral context
Debates and methodology
The text introduces the concept of voting and traces the historical origins and development of voting theories up to and including present-day techniques and models.
Approaches reviewed include the early social and psychological models, through the rational choice, spatial modelling and economic theories, to the more sophisticated contemporary models. By carefully presenting and explaining the major technical and methodological advances made in voting studies, the text serves to provide a complete review of the different approaches and techniques that have characterized this area of study from its origins to the present day.
The book includes separate chapters on abstention and electoral competition, and employs a range of empirical examples from a number of countries. It concludes by looking at how voting studies might evolve in the future.
Voters and Voting: An Introduction will be essential reading for all students of electoral and political behaviour across the social and political sciences.