-
Article
Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent to Second-Kind Predictability
In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data, the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (CNLLE) met...
-
Article
Predictability of the 7·20 extreme rainstorm in Zhengzhou in stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter ensembles
The scale-dependent predictability of the devastating 7·20 extreme rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China in 2021 was investigated via ensemble experiments, which were perturbed on different scales using the stochastic...
-
Article
Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model
Based on a simple coupled Lorenz model, we investigate how to assess a suitable initial perturbation scheme for ensemble forecasting in a multiscale system involving slow dynamics and fast dynamics. Four initi...
-
Article
Open AccessIncrease in tropical cyclone rain rate with translation speed
In general, tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall accumulation usually decreases with faster TC translation speed but increases with heavier rain rate. However, how the TC rain rate changes with translation speed is ...
-
Article
A comparison of the strength and position variability of the Kuroshio Extension SST front
This study compares the seasonal and interannual-to-decadal variability in the strength and position of the Kuroshio Extension front (KEF) using high-resolution satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) ...
-
Article
Inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon
The significant inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been investigated using the signal-to-noise ratio method. The relatively low potential predictabilit...
-
Article
Contrasting relationship between the Kuroshio Extension and the East Asian summer monsoon before and after the late 1980s
Based on our previous study (Yu et al., Clim Dyn 49:1139–1156, 2017), this paper further investigates the interdecadal change in the relationship between the Kuroshio Extension (KE; 27°–37°N, 140°–158°E) and t...
-
Article
Influence of the North Pacific Victoria mode on western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis
The Victoria mode (VM) is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function mode (EOF2) of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific north of 20°N. This study examines the influence of t...
-
Article
Estimating the Predictability Limit of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Using Observational Data
In this study, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from ...
-
Article
An interdecadal change in the relationship between the western North Pacific Ocean and the East Asian summer monsoon
This study reveals that the relationship between the western North Pacific Ocean (WNPO; 0–55°N, 100–165°E) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experiences a well-defined interdecadal change in the late 19...
-
Article
Baseline predictability of daily east Asian summer monsoon circulation indices
The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method is adopted to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity indices on a synoptic timescale. The predictabi...