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Reply to: Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends
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Open AccessPoleward migration as global warming’s possible self-regulator to restrain future western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone’s intensification
Poleward migration is an interesting phenomenon regarding the shift of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) towards higher latitudes. As climate warms, TCs’ intensification is promoted, and yet over certain oceans, TCs may...
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Open AccessIntercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models
Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this sc...
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Open AccessDeclining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming
Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attri...
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Open AccessSkill of the Saudi-KAU CGCM in Forecasting ENSO and its Comparison with NMME and C3S Models
This paper assesses the skill of the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University coupled ocean–atmosphere Global Climate Model, namely Saudi-KAU CGCM, in forecasting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea sur...
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Open AccessEffects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones
The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such...
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Understanding and managing connected extreme events
Extreme weather and climate events and their impacts can occur in complex combinations, an interaction shaped by physical drivers and societal forces. In these situations, governance, markets and other decisio...
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Monsoon Responses to Climate Changes—Connecting Past, Present and Future
Knowledge of how monsoons will respond to external forcings through the twenty-first century has been confounded by incomplete theories of tropical climate and insufficient representation in climate models. Th...
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Open AccessPast and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast
The ocean and atmosphere in the North Atlantic are coupled through a feedback mechanism that excites a dipole pattern in vertical wind shear (VWS), a metric that strongly controls Atlantic hurricanes. In parti...
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Open AccessLittle evidence of reduced global tropical cyclone activity following recent volcanic eruptions
The impact of volcanic aerosols on recent global tropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined in observations, reanalysis, and models (the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 - CMIP5 multi-model, and o...
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Open AccessSummary of workshop on sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability of extreme weather and climate
This paper provides a summary of the Workshop on Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Predictability of Extreme Weather and Climate, held at Columbia University, December 6–7, 2016. The 2-day workshop was attended b...
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Is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis?
A recent study showed that the global average latitude where tropical cyclones achieve their lifetime-maximum intensity has been migrating poleward at a rate of about one-half degree of latitude per decade ove...
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Northern hemisphere tropical cyclones during the quasi-El Niño of late 2014
During the second half of 2014, the tropical Pacific was in a state marginally consistent with El Niño. While oceanic indicators were indicative of a weak El Niño event, a number of atmospheric indicators were...
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Open AccessRapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity
The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimo...
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Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise
The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under s...
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Influence of local and remote SST on North Atlantic tropical cyclone potential intensity
We examine the role of local and remote sea surface temperature (SST) on the tropical cyclone potential intensity in the North Atlantic using a suite of model simulations, while separating the impact of anthro...
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Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Southern Hemisphere
A probabilistic clustering method is used to describe various aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, for the period 1969–2008. A total of 7 clusters are examined: three in the Sout...
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Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean
As the global climate warms due to increasing greenhouse gases, the regional climate of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region will also change. This study presents the latest estimates of the expected change...
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Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?
Twenty-first century climate model projections show an amplification of the annual cycle in tropical precipitation with increased strength in both wet and dry seasons, but uncertainty is large and few studies ...
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Open AccessHurricane track variability and secular potential intensity trends
Sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic has been shown to co-vary with hurricane activity on a broad range of time-scales. One general hypothesis for this observed relationship is based on the t...