The Swedish medico-legal concept of "science and proven experience" is both legally imp... more The Swedish medico-legal concept of "science and proven experience" is both legally important and ambiguous. The conceptual uncertainty associated with it can hamper effective assessment of medical evidence in legal proceedings and encourage medical professionals to distrust legal regulation. We examine normative criteria a functioning medico-legal notion should presumably meet, e.g. clarity, acceptability and consistency with existing laws. We also survey healthcare professionals to see how they understand science and proven experience and thus determine the extent to which their understanding meets the normative criteria. The survey suggests that medical professionals feel more certain about "science and proven experience" in the medical context than they do in a legal context. They still have substantial trust in the legal use of the notion, but they do not believe that legal professionals should be allowed to determine the meaning of "science and proven experience" in the legal context. With these results in mind, we argue that the best way to meet the normative criteria and resolve conceptual uncertainty is to specify sub-questions that clarify the notion. We recommend an analytical-deliberative approach that will close the gap between the medical and legal professions' perceptions of how law and medicine relate.
The question whether a single extreme climate event, such as a hurricane or heatwave, can be attr... more The question whether a single extreme climate event, such as a hurricane or heatwave, can be attributed to human induced climate change has become a vibrant field of research and discussion in recent years. Proponents of the most common approach (probabilistic event attribution) argue for using single event attribution for advancing climate policy, not least in the context of loss and damages, while critics are raising concerns about inductive risks which may result in misguided policies. Here, we present six ethical predicaments, rooted in epistemic choices of single event attribution for policy making, with a focus on problems related to loss and damage. Our results show that probabilistic event attribution is particularly sensitive to these predicaments, rendering the choice of method value laden and hence political. Our review shows how the putatively apolitical approach becomes political and deeply problematic from a climate justice perspective. We also suggest that extreme event attribution (EEA) is becoming more and more irrelevant for projecting loss and damages as socio‐ecological systems are increasingly destabilized by climate change. We conclude by suggesting a more causality driven approach for understanding loss and damage, that is, less prone to the ethical predicaments of EEA.
Effective support for people´s responses to climate change requires knowledge on the gap between ... more Effective support for people´s responses to climate change requires knowledge on the gap between physical climate change science and practices where the responses are realized. Studies have shown that individuals´ strong belief in local impacts of climate change is an important driver of climate change response (e.g. Blennow et al. 2012). Arguably this belief can be fortified by the belief that one has experienced the local impacts of climate change. However, a recent study shows that while responses to climate change correlate positively with the strength of belief that one has experienced negative local impacts of climate change, experience of positive local climate change impacts can either promote or inhibit the response (Blennow and Persson 2021). If the intention is adaptation to the impacts of climate change, positive experiences of climate change promote the response but if the intention is climate change mitigation, experience of positive impacts of climate change inhibit the response.While strong belief in the local impacts of climate change is a prerequisite of climate change response, for adaptation, the agent also needs detailed knowledge of the causal links between climate change and the negative and positive values of expected climate change related impacts (Blennow et al. 2020). Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change generally increases with the absolute value of the net of positive and negative expected impacts in the absence of ‘tipping point’ behavior (Persson et al. 2020; Blennow et al. 2020). Tipping point behaviour occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. For mitigation, moreover, it is important that the net value of expected impacts is negative and not positive (Blennow and Persson 2021). We discuss the implications of the results for policies aiming at supporting responses to climate change, such as communications that help the receiver subjectively attribute the causes of an event to climate change. ReferencesBlennow, K. Persson, J., 2021. To Mitigate or Adapt? Explaining Why Citizens Responding to Climate Change Favour the Former. Land, 10, 240. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10030240Blennow, K., Persson, J., Tomé, M., & Hanewinkel, M., 2012. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting. PLOS ONE, 7(11):e50181. http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0050182Blennow, K. Persson, J., Gonçalves, L.M.S., Borys, A., Dutcă, I., Hynynen, J., Janeczko, E., Lyubenova, M., Merganič, J., Merganiová, K., Peltoniemi, M., Petr, M., Reboredo, F., Vacchiano, G., Reyer, C.P.O., 2020. The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation – implications for communications with European forest professionals. Environmental Research Letters,15: 114061. /doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2faPersson, J., Blennow, K., Gonçalves, L.M.S., Borys, A., Dutca, I., Hynynen, J., Janeczko, E., Lyubenova, M., Martel, S., Merganic, J., Merganicova, K., Peltoniemi, M., Petr, M., Reboredo, F., Vacchiano, G., Reyer, C.P.O., 2020. No polarization – expected values of climate change impacts among European forest professionals and scientists. Sustainability, 12, 2659; doi:10.3390/su12072659
A rationale for an individuals-oriented landscape approach to sustainable land-use planning based... more A rationale for an individuals-oriented landscape approach to sustainable land-use planning based on an analysis of bio-geo-physical components as well as the human components of the landscape is presented. A toolbox for analysing individuals’ decision-making and valuations in the landscape is described. The toolbox can provide evidence on the drivers of individuals’ decision-making in the landscape and the decision strategies they apply. This evidence can be used to identify communication needs and to design guidelines for effective communication. The tool for value elicitation separates the instrumental values (means) and end values (goals) of individuals with respect to locations in the landscape. This distinction, and knowledge of the end values in the landscape, are critical for the achievement of policy goals and for spatial planning from a democratic point of view. The individuals-oriented landscape approach has roots in geography and draws on behavioural decision research to...
Begreppet ’vetenskap och beprovad erfarenhet’ har atminstone sedan 1829 ars licentiat- eller laka... more Begreppet ’vetenskap och beprovad erfarenhet’ har atminstone sedan 1829 ars licentiat- eller lakared spelat en framtradande roll inom svensk halso- och sjukvard (Kock 1939, 281):Och som mig rattighet nu meddelas att utofwa lakarekonsten, sa will och skall jag i sjukdomars behandling endast anwanda sadane medel, hwilka erfarenheten, wetenskapen och mogen profning godkant, Bestammelsen i dess moderna formulering ingick i lakarinstruktioner mellan 1890 och 1994 och har darefter ingatt i olika lagar, till exempel patientsakerhetslagen. Genom skollagen 2010 har begreppet blivit centralt i skolans varld ocksa. Om det nu ar samma begrepp vi har att gora med? Skillnaderna och likheterna mellan vetenskap och beprovad erfarenhet i de tva sektorerna ar oerhort intressanta i sig sjalva, och de ar ocksa av stor praktisk betydelse. (Less)
Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adapta... more Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in ten countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the ‘blocked belief’ effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the fo...
The Swedish medico-legal concept of "science and proven experience" is both legally imp... more The Swedish medico-legal concept of "science and proven experience" is both legally important and ambiguous. The conceptual uncertainty associated with it can hamper effective assessment of medical evidence in legal proceedings and encourage medical professionals to distrust legal regulation. We examine normative criteria a functioning medico-legal notion should presumably meet, e.g. clarity, acceptability and consistency with existing laws. We also survey healthcare professionals to see how they understand science and proven experience and thus determine the extent to which their understanding meets the normative criteria. The survey suggests that medical professionals feel more certain about "science and proven experience" in the medical context than they do in a legal context. They still have substantial trust in the legal use of the notion, but they do not believe that legal professionals should be allowed to determine the meaning of "science and proven experience" in the legal context. With these results in mind, we argue that the best way to meet the normative criteria and resolve conceptual uncertainty is to specify sub-questions that clarify the notion. We recommend an analytical-deliberative approach that will close the gap between the medical and legal professions' perceptions of how law and medicine relate.
The question whether a single extreme climate event, such as a hurricane or heatwave, can be attr... more The question whether a single extreme climate event, such as a hurricane or heatwave, can be attributed to human induced climate change has become a vibrant field of research and discussion in recent years. Proponents of the most common approach (probabilistic event attribution) argue for using single event attribution for advancing climate policy, not least in the context of loss and damages, while critics are raising concerns about inductive risks which may result in misguided policies. Here, we present six ethical predicaments, rooted in epistemic choices of single event attribution for policy making, with a focus on problems related to loss and damage. Our results show that probabilistic event attribution is particularly sensitive to these predicaments, rendering the choice of method value laden and hence political. Our review shows how the putatively apolitical approach becomes political and deeply problematic from a climate justice perspective. We also suggest that extreme event attribution (EEA) is becoming more and more irrelevant for projecting loss and damages as socio‐ecological systems are increasingly destabilized by climate change. We conclude by suggesting a more causality driven approach for understanding loss and damage, that is, less prone to the ethical predicaments of EEA.
Effective support for people´s responses to climate change requires knowledge on the gap between ... more Effective support for people´s responses to climate change requires knowledge on the gap between physical climate change science and practices where the responses are realized. Studies have shown that individuals´ strong belief in local impacts of climate change is an important driver of climate change response (e.g. Blennow et al. 2012). Arguably this belief can be fortified by the belief that one has experienced the local impacts of climate change. However, a recent study shows that while responses to climate change correlate positively with the strength of belief that one has experienced negative local impacts of climate change, experience of positive local climate change impacts can either promote or inhibit the response (Blennow and Persson 2021). If the intention is adaptation to the impacts of climate change, positive experiences of climate change promote the response but if the intention is climate change mitigation, experience of positive impacts of climate change inhibit the response.While strong belief in the local impacts of climate change is a prerequisite of climate change response, for adaptation, the agent also needs detailed knowledge of the causal links between climate change and the negative and positive values of expected climate change related impacts (Blennow et al. 2020). Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change generally increases with the absolute value of the net of positive and negative expected impacts in the absence of ‘tipping point’ behavior (Persson et al. 2020; Blennow et al. 2020). Tipping point behaviour occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. For mitigation, moreover, it is important that the net value of expected impacts is negative and not positive (Blennow and Persson 2021). We discuss the implications of the results for policies aiming at supporting responses to climate change, such as communications that help the receiver subjectively attribute the causes of an event to climate change. ReferencesBlennow, K. Persson, J., 2021. To Mitigate or Adapt? Explaining Why Citizens Responding to Climate Change Favour the Former. Land, 10, 240. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10030240Blennow, K., Persson, J., Tomé, M., & Hanewinkel, M., 2012. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting. PLOS ONE, 7(11):e50181. http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0050182Blennow, K. Persson, J., Gonçalves, L.M.S., Borys, A., Dutcă, I., Hynynen, J., Janeczko, E., Lyubenova, M., Merganič, J., Merganiová, K., Peltoniemi, M., Petr, M., Reboredo, F., Vacchiano, G., Reyer, C.P.O., 2020. The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation – implications for communications with European forest professionals. Environmental Research Letters,15: 114061. /doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2faPersson, J., Blennow, K., Gonçalves, L.M.S., Borys, A., Dutca, I., Hynynen, J., Janeczko, E., Lyubenova, M., Martel, S., Merganic, J., Merganicova, K., Peltoniemi, M., Petr, M., Reboredo, F., Vacchiano, G., Reyer, C.P.O., 2020. No polarization – expected values of climate change impacts among European forest professionals and scientists. Sustainability, 12, 2659; doi:10.3390/su12072659
A rationale for an individuals-oriented landscape approach to sustainable land-use planning based... more A rationale for an individuals-oriented landscape approach to sustainable land-use planning based on an analysis of bio-geo-physical components as well as the human components of the landscape is presented. A toolbox for analysing individuals’ decision-making and valuations in the landscape is described. The toolbox can provide evidence on the drivers of individuals’ decision-making in the landscape and the decision strategies they apply. This evidence can be used to identify communication needs and to design guidelines for effective communication. The tool for value elicitation separates the instrumental values (means) and end values (goals) of individuals with respect to locations in the landscape. This distinction, and knowledge of the end values in the landscape, are critical for the achievement of policy goals and for spatial planning from a democratic point of view. The individuals-oriented landscape approach has roots in geography and draws on behavioural decision research to...
Begreppet ’vetenskap och beprovad erfarenhet’ har atminstone sedan 1829 ars licentiat- eller laka... more Begreppet ’vetenskap och beprovad erfarenhet’ har atminstone sedan 1829 ars licentiat- eller lakared spelat en framtradande roll inom svensk halso- och sjukvard (Kock 1939, 281):Och som mig rattighet nu meddelas att utofwa lakarekonsten, sa will och skall jag i sjukdomars behandling endast anwanda sadane medel, hwilka erfarenheten, wetenskapen och mogen profning godkant, Bestammelsen i dess moderna formulering ingick i lakarinstruktioner mellan 1890 och 1994 och har darefter ingatt i olika lagar, till exempel patientsakerhetslagen. Genom skollagen 2010 har begreppet blivit centralt i skolans varld ocksa. Om det nu ar samma begrepp vi har att gora med? Skillnaderna och likheterna mellan vetenskap och beprovad erfarenhet i de tva sektorerna ar oerhort intressanta i sig sjalva, och de ar ocksa av stor praktisk betydelse. (Less)
Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adapta... more Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in ten countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the ‘blocked belief’ effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the fo...
Innehåll
Inledning om beslutsbilden av risk
och bokens disposition 13
Del 1: positioner
1. Aspekt... more Innehåll Inledning om beslutsbilden av risk och bokens disposition 13 Del 1: positioner 1. Aspekter av risk 25 1.1 De många aspekterna och den flerdimensionella förståelsen 26 1.2 A tt ta och att löpa en risk 30 1.3 F elslutet om risktagaren 32 1.4 F elslutet om producenten 36 2. Risk eller fara? 47 2.1 I nledande om de många distinktionerna mellan risk och fara – med ett exempel från juridiken 50 2.2 Beslutsdistinktionen 53 2.3 O rsaksdistinktionen 55 2.4 Värdedistinktionen 60 2.5 T idsdistinktionen 64 2.6 A vslutning 65 3. Riskobjekt 67 3.1 A v vilka slag är riskerna? 69 3.2 Risker som typer och tecken 70 3.3 T re metafysiska aspekter: objekt, mekanism och möjlighet 72 3.4 De tre metafysiska aspekternas betydelse 81 3.5 Det stora perspektivet 83 Del 2: färdr iktning 4. Riskhantering i sitt sammanhang 87 4.1 M askering och mekanismer 88 4.2 T yp A 89 4.3 T yp B 90 4.4 M olnar om maskering 92 4.5 M askerare: interna och externa 94 4.6 Det omvända perspektivet: riskhanteringen bestämmer risken 95 4.7 S amhällets risker: risker med krav på hantering 96 4.8 G offmans masker och extern maskering 99 4.9 M askeraren och sammanhanget 102 4.10 Risker och ”finkar” 103 4.11 Destruktion 104 4.12 Riskhantering och framtidens riskobjekt 104 4.13 A tt hantera risksubjekt 108 4.14 Riskhantering och det agentcentrerade 109 5. Verkliga risker 113 5.1 N ågra argument mot verkliga risker 114 5.2 O frånkomliga värdeperspektiv 1: det externa inflytandet 116 5.3 O frånkomliga värdeperspektiv 2: 118 de många vägarna till kunskap 118 5.4 O frånkomliga värdeperspektiv 3: 122 hur önskvärda är konsekvenserna? 122 5.5 Relativa risker eller fler risker än vi trodde? 124 5.6 E n mångfald kombinationer 125 av verkliga komponenter 125 5.7 F ör verkliga risker 127 6. Utfallsrisker och kunskapsrisker 133 6.1 Utfallsrisker 134 6.2 K unskapsrisker 136 6.3 K onsekvenser av de två riskuppfattningarna 140 6.4 K unskap och helhet 142 6.5 T entativ analys av Jon Elsters exempel 144 6.6 A rgument för kunskapsrisker 147 6.7 E n summering 152 6.8 O bjektivt risktagande och framgångsrik riskexponering 153 Del 3: Kartans vita fält 7. De fruktade dioxinerna 157 7.1 Dioxiner i krig och fred 158 7.2 De ovanliga cancerfallen med anknytning 159 till svenskt skogsbruk 159 7.3 K unskapsrisktagandet och korrigeringarna 160 7.4 Den ogenomförbara forskningen 161 7.5 F ördröjd exponering 162 7.6 Risken med fisken – om omtyckta riskobjekt 163 7.7 N ya exempel på kunskapsrisker 165 7.8 T röskelvärdesmodellen och EPA 169 8. Utan rot inget träd – om kartmetaforen och rotsnurren 173 8.1 S killnader i materiell form 174 8.2 S killnader i strukturell form 176 8.3 S killnader i innehåll 178 8.4 A nmärkningar om rotsnurr 179 8.5 Y tterligare krav på kartlikhet 187 8.6 K unskapskartan och dess bakgrund 189 8.7 Dåligt underbyggda data som kvarstår 191 9. Riskobjekten, robustheten och experterna 195 9.1 F elslutet att missta 195 kunskapskartan för verkligheten 195 9.2 Riskobjektet och kontexten 196 9.3 K onstitueringen av riskobjektet och riskbedömningens fullständighet – om välkända objekt 198 9.4 Robusthet 1: konkurrerande teoriers samstämmighet 199 9.5 K onstitueringen av riskobjektet och riskbedömningens fullständighet: nya objekt 200 9.6 Robusthet 2: kompletterande perspektiv 201 9.7 N ågra avslutande anmärkningar 203
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Inledning om beslutsbilden av risk
och bokens disposition 13
Del 1: positioner
1. Aspekter av risk 25
1.1 De många aspekterna och den
flerdimensionella förståelsen 26
1.2 A tt ta och att löpa en risk 30
1.3 F elslutet om risktagaren 32
1.4 F elslutet om producenten 36
2. Risk eller fara? 47
2.1 I nledande om de många distinktionerna mellan
risk och fara – med ett exempel från juridiken 50
2.2 Beslutsdistinktionen 53
2.3 O rsaksdistinktionen 55
2.4 Värdedistinktionen 60
2.5 T idsdistinktionen 64
2.6 A vslutning 65
3. Riskobjekt 67
3.1 A v vilka slag är riskerna? 69
3.2 Risker som typer och tecken 70
3.3 T re metafysiska aspekter: objekt,
mekanism och möjlighet 72
3.4 De tre metafysiska aspekternas betydelse 81
3.5 Det stora perspektivet 83
Del 2: färdr iktning
4. Riskhantering i sitt sammanhang 87
4.1 M askering och mekanismer 88
4.2 T yp A 89
4.3 T yp B 90
4.4 M olnar om maskering 92
4.5 M askerare: interna och externa 94
4.6 Det omvända perspektivet:
riskhanteringen bestämmer risken 95
4.7 S amhällets risker:
risker med krav på hantering 96
4.8 G offmans masker och extern maskering 99
4.9 M askeraren och sammanhanget 102
4.10 Risker och ”finkar” 103
4.11 Destruktion 104
4.12 Riskhantering och framtidens
riskobjekt 104
4.13 A tt hantera risksubjekt 108
4.14 Riskhantering och det agentcentrerade 109
5. Verkliga risker 113
5.1 N ågra argument mot verkliga risker 114
5.2 O frånkomliga värdeperspektiv 1:
det externa inflytandet 116
5.3 O frånkomliga värdeperspektiv 2: 118
de många vägarna till kunskap 118
5.4 O frånkomliga värdeperspektiv 3: 122
hur önskvärda är konsekvenserna? 122
5.5 Relativa risker eller fler risker än vi trodde? 124
5.6 E n mångfald kombinationer 125
av verkliga komponenter 125
5.7 F ör verkliga risker 127
6. Utfallsrisker och kunskapsrisker 133
6.1 Utfallsrisker 134
6.2 K unskapsrisker 136
6.3 K onsekvenser av de två riskuppfattningarna 140
6.4 K unskap och helhet 142
6.5 T entativ analys av Jon Elsters exempel 144
6.6 A rgument för kunskapsrisker 147
6.7 E n summering 152
6.8 O bjektivt risktagande och
framgångsrik riskexponering 153
Del 3: Kartans vita fält
7. De fruktade dioxinerna 157
7.1 Dioxiner i krig och fred 158
7.2 De ovanliga cancerfallen med anknytning 159
till svenskt skogsbruk 159
7.3 K unskapsrisktagandet och korrigeringarna 160
7.4 Den ogenomförbara forskningen 161
7.5 F ördröjd exponering 162
7.6 Risken med fisken – om omtyckta riskobjekt 163
7.7 N ya exempel på kunskapsrisker 165
7.8 T röskelvärdesmodellen och EPA 169
8. Utan rot inget träd – om kartmetaforen och rotsnurren 173
8.1 S killnader i materiell form 174
8.2 S killnader i strukturell form 176
8.3 S killnader i innehåll 178
8.4 A nmärkningar om rotsnurr 179
8.5 Y tterligare krav på kartlikhet 187
8.6 K unskapskartan och dess bakgrund 189
8.7 Dåligt underbyggda data som kvarstår 191
9. Riskobjekten, robustheten och experterna 195
9.1 F elslutet att missta 195
kunskapskartan för verkligheten 195
9.2 Riskobjektet och kontexten 196
9.3 K onstitueringen av riskobjektet och
riskbedömningens fullständighet
– om välkända objekt 198
9.4 Robusthet 1: konkurrerande teoriers
samstämmighet 199
9.5 K onstitueringen av riskobjektet och
riskbedömningens fullständighet: nya objekt 200
9.6 Robusthet 2: kompletterande perspektiv 201
9.7 N ågra avslutande anmärkningar 203