It was found that the participation of Ukraine during the first period action of the Kyoto Protoc... more It was found that the participation of Ukraine during the first period action of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) was ineffective as a result of the non-use of significant opportunities of the flexible KP mechanisms and attraction of investments to reduce the carbon intensity of the economy. The second period action of the KP no longer provides Ukraine with such extremely attractive conditions as the first period. The article presents calculations of the expected volumes of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Ukraine until 2020, which show that our state won't be able to meet the international commitments for the second period of the KP in case it ratifies the Doha amendment (in its present form). Moreover, Ukraine may turn from seller, as was the case in the first period of the KP, to buyer of carbon emissions quotas, if it will not implement a well-reasoned and efficient low-carbon policies based on energy conservation, energy efficiency, energy substitution carbon intensity to renewab...
The article presents calculations of the projected GHG emissions in Ukraine until 2020 and furthe... more The article presents calculations of the projected GHG emissions in Ukraine until 2020 and further until 2050, based on the optimization model of the energy system ""TIMES-Ukraine"". Results show that GHG emissions in 2020 will not exceed half of the 1990 value, which would correspond to Ukraine's commitments under the second period of Kyoto Protocol. Considering Ukraine's possible target not to exceed in 2050 50% of the 1990 emission level, in case of the low rates of economic development with certain elements of the energy balance optimization, a 15% (according to UN forecasts) decrease in country's population, insignificant increase in the housing stock and observance of the commitments to the European Energy Community, such an objective could be attained without considerable efforts. However, low GDP growth rates and population decrease cannot be Ukraine's national goals so one may expect a more rapid socio-economic development. In this contex...
Вступ. Попри невизначеність термінів та умов повоєнного відновлення України, ресурсоємність та ко... more Вступ. Попри невизначеність термінів та умов повоєнного відновлення України, ресурсоємність та комплексність цього завдання, його успішне виконання створюватиме унікальні можливості для проведення необхідних інституційних реформ та радикальної структурної трансформації економіки. Пріоритети та ефективні механізми реалізації такої політики відновлення повинні бути сформульовані з урахуванням регіональних та глобальних напрямів соціоекономічних і гуманітарних перетворень, одним з основних серед яких є перехід до низьковуглецевої (вуглецевонейтральної) моделі розвитку.Проблематика. Ухвалення цілі зі скорочення викидів парникових газів відповідно до оновленого Національно визначеного внеску до Паризької угоди задало кількісний вимір низьковуглецевого розвитку України. Актуальним завданням постає як формулювання базових імперативів державної політики, так і визначення завдань і заходів,спрямованих на досягнення заявленої мети та ефективного долучення України до Зеленого курсу ЄС в умовах...
The scope of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies is expanding year by year. One such area is th... more The scope of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies is expanding year by year. One such area is the engineering of systems for collecting and transmitting information from various sensors for further processing and possible control of technological systems. Examples of such systems are "smart city" systems, environmental pollution control systems, natural disasters forecasting systems, soil moisture systems, etc. The technologies and protocols for building such systems must, first and foremost, be characterized by low energy consumption and cover large territorial areas. The technology of this class is commonly known as LPWAN (Low-power Wide-area Network). This paper solves the problem of analyzing the features of LPWAN technologies by the criteria: openness, coverage range, data rate and deployment cost, for further use in the construction of engineering systems for collecting and transmitting information from various sensors for further processing and possible control of ...
The paper presents results of scenario modelling and assessment of energy transition to 2050 in t... more The paper presents results of scenario modelling and assessment of energy transition to 2050 in the Zhytomyr territorial community (TC), which provides for a switching from fossil carbon based energy resources in the current TC energy system functioning to 100% use of renewable energy sources (RES) which meets all energy demands and supports the Sustainable Development of TC in accordance with the relevant UN goals. For this purpose, the optimizational economic and mathematical TIMES-Zhytomyr model (no analogues in Ukraine), based on the TIMES-Ukraine model, was developed. It includes 647 energy technologies that are currently available or may be presented in the coming years in Ukrainian market. For the development of the TIMES-Zhytomyr model, a low-available local energy statistics was processed. As a result, the first energy balance by the form of the International Energy Agency for the large Ukrainian city and the basic energy-technological system of Zhytomyr TC were developed. ...
In Ukraine, deployment of traditional and renewable energy generation technologies is gradually m... more In Ukraine, deployment of traditional and renewable energy generation technologies is gradually moving forward. Potential of renewables in Ukraine is significant. Its actual use is limited due to lack of realistic program to increase renewables’ production capacity in the major energy policy papers. It significantly reduces the attractiveness of energy projects for private investors. Nonetheless, certain policies were adopted to increase spread of electricity from renewables in the market. Real significance of renewable energy in the structure of Ukrainian energy balance remains a matter of debate. Comparison of cost indicators and respective conclusions helped authors to answer the question on the perspective structure of electricity generation from various energy sources.
This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches t... more This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy systems’ modelling investigation. It is proved that adequate consideration of the economy-wide effects through single class of models is not always conceivable, since such approaches exceptionally focus either on technological or macroeconomic visions of the energy sector. Accordingly, this paper justifies the expediency of integrated modelling tools application for the analysis of energy policy measures in Ukraine, furthermore theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy system models and economic models linkage are studied. Based on the authors’ energy system model “TIMES-Ukraine” and recursive dynamic general equilibrium model this paper presents an integrated modelling tool that can serve as an effective methodological support in solving a number of strategic planning problems in the energy sector, including: investigation of the energy balance optimization op...
The article investigates the character and conditionality of the existing practice of price forma... more The article investigates the character and conditionality of the existing practice of price formation in the international trade in natural gas. In particular, it has been established that one of important consequences of the consecutive realization of the policy of the liberalization of natural gas markets in the European countries, became decoupling between the price and principles of gas price formation. That caused a transition from the previously predominant pricing formula in the international contracts ("netbackprice") to the one based on competition principles ("gas-alternative fuel"). In European countries, they mention three basic approaches to defining the gas price in long term contracts. The first one consists in linking the gas price to the price of a basket of alternative energy resources (coal and oil products, which are traded on the stock market and have a "market price"). The other one is based on the price for monthly futures contrac...
The study “Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050” was carried out in 2016-2017 by... more The study “Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050” was carried out in 2016-2017 by the State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine with the support of the Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine and in cooperation with civil society organizations, public authorities, specialized in renewables business associations and independent experts. This study presents results of modeling of the reference and alternative scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s energy sector by 2050 and demonstrates how the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy can be achieved and what economic impacts it will have.
The analysis of efficiency of use of energy resources; the reductions of gross domestic product e... more The analysis of efficiency of use of energy resources; the reductions of gross domestic product energy intensity; optimization of the structure of energy balances in the countries of the world and consequences to which improvements of these processes bring are considered in the article. The energy and environmental figures (indicators) of long-term development of Ukraine in conditions of absence of significant reforms in the energy sector of Ukraine are calculated. In the process of the calculation the model "TIMES-Ukraine" has been used. The comparative analysis of these figures with the corresponding figures for group countries of OECD is carried out. The recommendations for intensification of transformation of modern energy and ecological policy in policy of a sustainable development of power industry of Ukraine are formulated.
This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches t... more This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy systems’ modelling investigation. It is proved that adequate consideration of the economy-wide effects through single class of models is not always conceivable, since such approaches exceptionally focus either on technological or macroeconomic visions of the energy sector. Accordingly, this paper justifies the expediency of integrated modelling tools application for the analysis of energy policy measures in Ukraine, furthermore theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy system models and economic models linkage are studied. Based on the authors’ energy system model “TIMES-Ukraine” and recursive dynamic general equilibrium model this paper presents an integrated modelling tool that can serve as an effective methodological support in solving a number of strategic planning problems in the energy sector, including:investigation of the energy balance optimization opt...
It was found that the participation of Ukraine during the first period action of the Kyoto Protoc... more It was found that the participation of Ukraine during the first period action of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) was ineffective as a result of the non-use of significant opportunities of the flexible KP mechanisms and attraction of investments to reduce the carbon intensity of the economy. The second period action of the KP no longer provides Ukraine with such extremely attractive conditions as the first period. The article presents calculations of the expected volumes of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Ukraine until 2020, which show that our state won't be able to meet the international commitments for the second period of the KP in case it ratifies the Doha amendment (in its present form). Moreover, Ukraine may turn from seller, as was the case in the first period of the KP, to buyer of carbon emissions quotas, if it will not implement a well-reasoned and efficient low-carbon policies based on energy conservation, energy efficiency, energy substitution carbon intensity to renewab...
The article presents calculations of the projected GHG emissions in Ukraine until 2020 and furthe... more The article presents calculations of the projected GHG emissions in Ukraine until 2020 and further until 2050, based on the optimization model of the energy system ""TIMES-Ukraine"". Results show that GHG emissions in 2020 will not exceed half of the 1990 value, which would correspond to Ukraine's commitments under the second period of Kyoto Protocol. Considering Ukraine's possible target not to exceed in 2050 50% of the 1990 emission level, in case of the low rates of economic development with certain elements of the energy balance optimization, a 15% (according to UN forecasts) decrease in country's population, insignificant increase in the housing stock and observance of the commitments to the European Energy Community, such an objective could be attained without considerable efforts. However, low GDP growth rates and population decrease cannot be Ukraine's national goals so one may expect a more rapid socio-economic development. In this contex...
Вступ. Попри невизначеність термінів та умов повоєнного відновлення України, ресурсоємність та ко... more Вступ. Попри невизначеність термінів та умов повоєнного відновлення України, ресурсоємність та комплексність цього завдання, його успішне виконання створюватиме унікальні можливості для проведення необхідних інституційних реформ та радикальної структурної трансформації економіки. Пріоритети та ефективні механізми реалізації такої політики відновлення повинні бути сформульовані з урахуванням регіональних та глобальних напрямів соціоекономічних і гуманітарних перетворень, одним з основних серед яких є перехід до низьковуглецевої (вуглецевонейтральної) моделі розвитку.Проблематика. Ухвалення цілі зі скорочення викидів парникових газів відповідно до оновленого Національно визначеного внеску до Паризької угоди задало кількісний вимір низьковуглецевого розвитку України. Актуальним завданням постає як формулювання базових імперативів державної політики, так і визначення завдань і заходів,спрямованих на досягнення заявленої мети та ефективного долучення України до Зеленого курсу ЄС в умовах...
The scope of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies is expanding year by year. One such area is th... more The scope of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies is expanding year by year. One such area is the engineering of systems for collecting and transmitting information from various sensors for further processing and possible control of technological systems. Examples of such systems are "smart city" systems, environmental pollution control systems, natural disasters forecasting systems, soil moisture systems, etc. The technologies and protocols for building such systems must, first and foremost, be characterized by low energy consumption and cover large territorial areas. The technology of this class is commonly known as LPWAN (Low-power Wide-area Network). This paper solves the problem of analyzing the features of LPWAN technologies by the criteria: openness, coverage range, data rate and deployment cost, for further use in the construction of engineering systems for collecting and transmitting information from various sensors for further processing and possible control of ...
The paper presents results of scenario modelling and assessment of energy transition to 2050 in t... more The paper presents results of scenario modelling and assessment of energy transition to 2050 in the Zhytomyr territorial community (TC), which provides for a switching from fossil carbon based energy resources in the current TC energy system functioning to 100% use of renewable energy sources (RES) which meets all energy demands and supports the Sustainable Development of TC in accordance with the relevant UN goals. For this purpose, the optimizational economic and mathematical TIMES-Zhytomyr model (no analogues in Ukraine), based on the TIMES-Ukraine model, was developed. It includes 647 energy technologies that are currently available or may be presented in the coming years in Ukrainian market. For the development of the TIMES-Zhytomyr model, a low-available local energy statistics was processed. As a result, the first energy balance by the form of the International Energy Agency for the large Ukrainian city and the basic energy-technological system of Zhytomyr TC were developed. ...
In Ukraine, deployment of traditional and renewable energy generation technologies is gradually m... more In Ukraine, deployment of traditional and renewable energy generation technologies is gradually moving forward. Potential of renewables in Ukraine is significant. Its actual use is limited due to lack of realistic program to increase renewables’ production capacity in the major energy policy papers. It significantly reduces the attractiveness of energy projects for private investors. Nonetheless, certain policies were adopted to increase spread of electricity from renewables in the market. Real significance of renewable energy in the structure of Ukrainian energy balance remains a matter of debate. Comparison of cost indicators and respective conclusions helped authors to answer the question on the perspective structure of electricity generation from various energy sources.
This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches t... more This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy systems’ modelling investigation. It is proved that adequate consideration of the economy-wide effects through single class of models is not always conceivable, since such approaches exceptionally focus either on technological or macroeconomic visions of the energy sector. Accordingly, this paper justifies the expediency of integrated modelling tools application for the analysis of energy policy measures in Ukraine, furthermore theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy system models and economic models linkage are studied. Based on the authors’ energy system model “TIMES-Ukraine” and recursive dynamic general equilibrium model this paper presents an integrated modelling tool that can serve as an effective methodological support in solving a number of strategic planning problems in the energy sector, including: investigation of the energy balance optimization op...
The article investigates the character and conditionality of the existing practice of price forma... more The article investigates the character and conditionality of the existing practice of price formation in the international trade in natural gas. In particular, it has been established that one of important consequences of the consecutive realization of the policy of the liberalization of natural gas markets in the European countries, became decoupling between the price and principles of gas price formation. That caused a transition from the previously predominant pricing formula in the international contracts ("netbackprice") to the one based on competition principles ("gas-alternative fuel"). In European countries, they mention three basic approaches to defining the gas price in long term contracts. The first one consists in linking the gas price to the price of a basket of alternative energy resources (coal and oil products, which are traded on the stock market and have a "market price"). The other one is based on the price for monthly futures contrac...
The study “Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050” was carried out in 2016-2017 by... more The study “Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050” was carried out in 2016-2017 by the State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine with the support of the Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine and in cooperation with civil society organizations, public authorities, specialized in renewables business associations and independent experts. This study presents results of modeling of the reference and alternative scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s energy sector by 2050 and demonstrates how the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy can be achieved and what economic impacts it will have.
The analysis of efficiency of use of energy resources; the reductions of gross domestic product e... more The analysis of efficiency of use of energy resources; the reductions of gross domestic product energy intensity; optimization of the structure of energy balances in the countries of the world and consequences to which improvements of these processes bring are considered in the article. The energy and environmental figures (indicators) of long-term development of Ukraine in conditions of absence of significant reforms in the energy sector of Ukraine are calculated. In the process of the calculation the model "TIMES-Ukraine" has been used. The comparative analysis of these figures with the corresponding figures for group countries of OECD is carried out. The recommendations for intensification of transformation of modern energy and ecological policy in policy of a sustainable development of power industry of Ukraine are formulated.
This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches t... more This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy systems’ modelling investigation. It is proved that adequate consideration of the economy-wide effects through single class of models is not always conceivable, since such approaches exceptionally focus either on technological or macroeconomic visions of the energy sector. Accordingly, this paper justifies the expediency of integrated modelling tools application for the analysis of energy policy measures in Ukraine, furthermore theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy system models and economic models linkage are studied. Based on the authors’ energy system model “TIMES-Ukraine” and recursive dynamic general equilibrium model this paper presents an integrated modelling tool that can serve as an effective methodological support in solving a number of strategic planning problems in the energy sector, including:investigation of the energy balance optimization opt...
Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development. Lecture Notes in Energy, Apr 1, 2018
In this chapter, we provide an assessment of low-emission development scenarios for the Ukrainian... more In this chapter, we provide an assessment of low-emission development scenarios for the Ukrainian economy, which faces significant economic and environmental challenges. We use the soft-linkage of the TIMES-Ukraine and Ukrainian computable general equilibrium models, which allows us to estimate an economy wide implications of long-term energy policies, including the Ukrainian low-carbon development strategy initiative (consistent with 2 °C target), and a more ambitious transition towards 92% share of renewables in gross final energy consumption by 2050 (consistent with 1.5 °C). Results show that further maintenance of the existing highly inefficient energy system is more expensive than transition towards a 92% renewables share. Key differences between 2 and 1.5 °C scenarios arise after 2035–2040, which enables the possibility of smooth transitions from less to more stringent pathways during this period. With initially low level of energy efficiency in Ukraine, both policies result in positive macroeconomic and sectoral effects, with better perspectives in case of the renewable scenario, which at the same time requires over 3 times more investment. The existing institutional environment and inefficient market framework can pose significant risks. Key sets of issues, which should be further addressed by policy makers, include: inconsistency between targets of different strategic energy documents; lack of incentives for market transformation, including environmental taxation for industrial users and further subsidy reform for households; and lack of competition and transparency on energy markets.
The study “Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050” was carried out in 2016-2017 by... more The study “Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050” was carried out in 2016-2017 by the State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine with the support of the Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine and in cooperation with civil society organizations, public authorities, specialized in renewables business associations and independent experts. This study presents results of modeling of the reference and alternative scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s energy sector by 2050 and demonstrates how the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy can be achieved and what economic impacts it will have.
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Papers by Oleksandr Diachuk