Biofortification is a promising strategy to reduce the persisting micronutrient deficiency. Biofo... more Biofortification is a promising strategy to reduce the persisting micronutrient deficiency. Biofortifying wheat grains has the potential to alleviate malnutrition as it is one of the major staple crops. In this study, we examine the research progress and impact of agronomic and genetic efforts on wheat biofortification. Developing countries like India, Pakistan, and China lead the research in wheat biofortification, followed by Turkey, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. Using meta-analysis we find that agronomic biofortification leads to a 1.6 standard deviation (SD) and 1.7 SD increase in zinc (Zn) and iron (Fe) concentration, respectively. Genetic biofortification efforts lead to a 74% and 79% increase in Zn and Fe contents, respectively. The effects of biofortification were larger in Asia and Africa, where micronutrient deficiency and hidden hunger are widespread. In India, genetic biofortification has more potential than agronomic biofortification a...
COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the Indian agricultural system extensively. Nevertheless, the rec... more COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the Indian agricultural system extensively. Nevertheless, the recent quarterly GDP estimates post-COVID scenario showcase robustness and resilience in Indian agriculture, the only sector to register a positive growth of 3.4% during the financial year (FY here after) 2020–21 (Quarter 1: April 2020 to June 2020). At the same time, the immediate past quarter growth was estimated at 5.9% witnessing a decline by 2.5% point. In this context, we aim to synthesize the early evidence of the COVID-19 impact on the Indian agricultural system viz., production, marketing and consumption followed by a set of potential strategies to recover and prosper post-pandemic. Survey findings indicate that the pandemic has affected production and marketing through labour and logistical constraints, while the negative income shock restricted access to markets and increased prices of food commodities affecting the consumption pattern. The pandemic wreaked a substantial physical...
COVID-19 incidence disrupted the food markets in India. The present study, adopting the interrupt... more COVID-19 incidence disrupted the food markets in India. The present study, adopting the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), captures the impact of pandemic induced lockdown on wholesale and retail wheat prices. Prices increased post-lockdown, however, there was no evidence of structural break as well as persisting volatility implying that the lockdown had no lasting impact on wheat prices. Retail prices witnessed an immediate increase post-lockdown across the country but significant only in west and north-east zones, and showed a decline in north and east zone. On the contrary, wholesale prices witnessed an immediate and significant increase in west and north-east zones; with a significant decrease in south zone. A negative post intervention trend in ITSA confirmed the result as a majority of the market zones reverted back to pre-lockdown levels which shall be attributed to the wheat arrivals post bumper harvest. Despite the relaxation allowed for agricultural related activities during the lockdown, price change in wheat has been observed across regions but reverted back owing to the system resilience. The findings affirm that market disruption is the main driver behind the observed price changes and government interventions like staggered procurement and logistics support resulted in wheat sector restoration
COVID-19 induced lock down has disrupted the food markets and commodity prices in India. This pap... more COVID-19 induced lock down has disrupted the food markets and commodity prices in India. This paper uses evidence from the official statistics on daily wholesale and retail prices (n=284) for major commodities by adopting interrupted timeseries analysis (ITSA). The results revealed that prices shot up immediately since lockdown, for chickpea, mung bean, and tomato. We find no evidence of structural break in food prices due to lockdown implying that the changes in prices caused by lockdown was not sufficient enough to alter the long-run price movement. ITSA confirmed the result as a majority of the commodity prices reverted indicating a negative post-intervention trend. We also triangulated the results with an online survey of 729 consumers coupled with a dipstick (telephone and personal interview) survey of 225 farmers. Despite the relaxation allowed for agricultural related activities during the lockdown, farmers reported disruption in disposing their winter produce barring wheat, covered by state procurement. The lockdown period coincided with the wheat harvest, the second most produced and consumed cereal in the country, resulting in a record procurement of 38.98 million tonnes in 2020. Consumers’ survey indicated that the pandemic restricted the access to food markets and a majority (75.31%) experienced an increase in the price of food items across intensity of COVID incidence. The pandemic has impacted the consumers’ livelihood from moderate (59.53%) to severe (3.3%) with 92 per cent reporting a change in shopping behavior. The Kruskal-Wallis test on Composite Consumption Behavior Change Index (CCBCI) indicated a significant shift among consumers who reported income change during the lockdown. The paper affirms that the pandemic has caused dramatic and unprecedented panic purchase by consumers as revealed by the survey. We strongly recommend for creation and functioning of suitable social safety nets to insulate vulnerable consumers and producers from the persistence and recurrence of pandemics.
During the 1950s, India was the major player in the pepper market. Recently India has dropped to ... more During the 1950s, India was the major player in the pepper market. Recently India has dropped to 4th position in production and exports. The price per kilogram of pepper in Cochin market reduced from ` 687 to ` 383 between 2014-15 and 2018-19. This manuscript attempts to study the reasons for the decline in India’s share in world pepper market and the recent fall in prices. The secondary data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, World Bank - World Integrated Trade Solutions, Reserve Bank of India and Spices Board of India were used for analysis. Transitional probability matrix was deployed to analyse the change in the direction of trade, relative comparative advantage and competitive index was used to study India’s market power in the international market. There has been a change in the direction of trade since 1999-2000. The results revealed a four per cent decline in area under pepper during 2000-2018, and now Indian pepper market has become import oriented with a CAGR in i...
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify the correlates of crop insurance adoption and est... more PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify the correlates of crop insurance adoption and estimate the impact on debt and farm income.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used nationally representative data from National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), which consisted of 35,200 farming households. Logit and propensity score matching (PSM) (nearest neighbor, caliper and kernel matching) techniques were used.FindingsWith only around 5% of households insuring their crops and 87% of them not receiving claims, crop insurance in India has failed. Logit model estimates of correlates of adoption indicated that households with larger family size, lower social group, less education, lower standard of living and poor were more likely to be left out of the ambit of crop insurance. Further, propensity score estimates suggested that households with access to crop insurance had significantly lesser outstanding debt with positive effect on input costs and crop income. The authors’ results were i...
This study is an attempt towards knowing farmers perspective on Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana ... more This study is an attempt towards knowing farmers perspective on Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY). Data was collected from 120 sample farmers in Karnataka among which 80 were insured and 40 were non-insured farmers. The results based on information solicited by farmers indicated that continuous drought in the previous years was the motivation to opt PMFBY. Education, farm size and the cost of borrowing from non-institutional sources significantly differed among insurers and non-insurers. Lack of awareness, lack of premium paying capacity and lack of faith were the reasons cited for not availing crop insurance by non-insured farmers. Discriminant analysis estimates revealed that factors like education, income, farm size, previous compensation, source and rate of short-term credit played an important role in discriminating farmers into different groups (loanee, non-loanee and non-insured). Farmers called for quick and transparent settlement of claims among other suggestions like individual farm assessment of losses to improve their participation in PMFBY.
The Economic Survey of India 2016–17 proposed universal basic income as a means to end those welf... more The Economic Survey of India 2016–17 proposed universal basic income as a means to end those welfare schemes in India plagued by inefficiency and misallocation. This paper assesses the results of cash transfer pilots in India and countries across the world to explore the potential of universal basic income in India. The pilot study at Madhya Pradesh proved that universal basic income led to near-universal financial inclusion, reduced indebtedness of the households and access to regular medication. Delhi's study proved that direct income enabled households to make a transition to better sanitation, cleaner fuel and consumption of non-cereals. Kenya's experiment showed a significant positive effect on psychological well-being due to regular monthly income. Recently, guaranteed income for farmers was announced under various schemes of states and the interim budget of the union government for the fiscal year 2019–20 taking into cognizance of persistent distress in agriculture. Such schemes must retain the element of continuity and commitment irrespective of the government of the day to ensure sustainability and desired outcomes. Further, the various facets of the changing political economy of India to drive the narrative of the universal basic income meaningfully were discussed.
Calcium (Ca) requirement increases tenfold upon parturition in dairy cows & buffaloes and its def... more Calcium (Ca) requirement increases tenfold upon parturition in dairy cows & buffaloes and its deficiency leads to a condition called milk fever (MF). Estimation of losses is necessary to understand the depth of the problem and design preventive measures. How much is the economic loss due to MF? What will be the efficiency gain if MF is prevented at the advent of a technology? We answer these questions using survey data and official statistics employing economic surplus model. MF incidence in sample buffaloes and cows was 19% and 28%, respectively. Total economic losses were calculated as a sum total of losses from milk production, mortality of animals and treatment costs. Yearly economic loss due to MF was estimated to be ₹ 1000 crores (US$ 137 million) in Haryana. Value of milk lost had the highest share in total economic losses (58%), followed by losses due to mortality (29%) and treatment costs (13%). Despite lower MF incidence, losses were higher in buffaloes due to higher milk ...
Farmers are in the scourge of an agrarian crisis. The major risk mitigation tool available for fa... more Farmers are in the scourge of an agrarian crisis. The major risk mitigation tool available for farmers is ‘crop insurance’. Unfortunately the concept of crop insurance has been a failure in India as in the year of peak performance of a crop insurance scheme (PMFBY) only around 35 per cent of the total arable land area is insured. Results from the study in Karnataka shows that less than 50 per cent of economic loss of farmers was compensated by PMFBY. Regression analysis indicated that claim payment had a significant impact on farmers’ coverage but claim payment has been faulty. Thus to improve the crop insurance products of India, review of crop insurance products of USA, China and Philippines were done. Taking insights from these a revenue based crop insurance model has been suggested as in USA to cover both the shortfalls in crop yield and price to increase the welfare of Indian farmers.
This study uses data from a nationally representative survey to identify the factors that determi... more This study uses data from a nationally representative survey to identify the factors that determine farm households’ choice of paddy marketing channels and the impact of the choice on the price realized. Small landholders sell their produce predominantly in informal or traditional value chains. Multinomial treatment effect estimates with endogenous market channels indicate that small landholders are less aware of the government-set floor price (minimum support price) and they realize lower prices and earn lower incomes than farmers selling in mandis (regulated markets).
Distortion in distribution and consumption of agricultural commodities is a result of disruptive ... more Distortion in distribution and consumption of agricultural commodities is a result of disruptive shocks in prices and food value chains leading to a significant food loss as well as waste. We investigated the COVID-19 induced lockdown effects in India through an interrupted time series analysis coupled with a survey result of 729 consumers, 225 farmers and synthesis of the literature evidence on food loss as well as food waste. Our article complements the literature inventory on COVID-19 by estimating and tracking the effects on prices and consumer behaviour in the long-run apart from discussing the implications for food loss and waste. Prices post-lockdown shot up immediately and significantly for chickpea (4.8%), mung bean (5.2%), and tomato (78.2%) corroborating the loss in highly perishable product-tomato-owing to its spiked price. We find no structural break in prices due to lockdown implying that lockdown-induced price change was not sufficient to alter the long-run price movement, and the prices of the major commodities reverted to the pre-lockdown levels. The pandemic induced lockdown did restrict the access to food markets and a majority of consumers (75.31%) experienced a price increase across COVID zones of different intensity of incidence leading to food loss along supply chain and wastage at consumers end. Consumers' livelihood affected from moderate (59.53%) to severe (3.3%) with 92 per cent reporting a change in shopping behavior. The Kruskal-Wallis test on consumption behavior change indicated a significant shift among the consumers reporting altered income, mostly in the downside, post-lockdown. Despite the relaxation for agricultural related activities during the lockdown, farmers reported disruption in disposing their winter produce barring wheat, bolstered by a record state procurement in 2020. The paper affirms that the pandemic has caused a significant price change and unprecedented panic purchase that led to the food wastage but subsided soon exhibiting the resilience in Indian agriculture. We strongly recommend for promoting the capacity and collective resilience of small-scale production systems through institutions, policies and reforms. Contract farming, farmer producer organizations, creation and functioning of social safety nets to overcome income, production and price shocks, access to digital national markets and capacity building on food waste management practices will insulate vulnerable section as well as reduce the loss of food across supply chain.
Biofortification is a promising strategy to reduce the persisting micronutrient deficiency. Biofo... more Biofortification is a promising strategy to reduce the persisting micronutrient deficiency. Biofortifying wheat grains has the potential to alleviate malnutrition as it is one of the major staple crops. In this study, we examine the research progress and impact of agronomic and genetic efforts on wheat biofortification. Developing countries like India, Pakistan, and China lead the research in wheat biofortification, followed by Turkey, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. Using meta-analysis we find that agronomic biofortification leads to a 1.6 standard deviation (SD) and 1.7 SD increase in zinc (Zn) and iron (Fe) concentration, respectively. Genetic biofortification efforts lead to a 74% and 79% increase in Zn and Fe contents, respectively. The effects of biofortification were larger in Asia and Africa, where micronutrient deficiency and hidden hunger are widespread. In India, genetic biofortification has more potential than agronomic biofortification a...
COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the Indian agricultural system extensively. Nevertheless, the rec... more COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the Indian agricultural system extensively. Nevertheless, the recent quarterly GDP estimates post-COVID scenario showcase robustness and resilience in Indian agriculture, the only sector to register a positive growth of 3.4% during the financial year (FY here after) 2020–21 (Quarter 1: April 2020 to June 2020). At the same time, the immediate past quarter growth was estimated at 5.9% witnessing a decline by 2.5% point. In this context, we aim to synthesize the early evidence of the COVID-19 impact on the Indian agricultural system viz., production, marketing and consumption followed by a set of potential strategies to recover and prosper post-pandemic. Survey findings indicate that the pandemic has affected production and marketing through labour and logistical constraints, while the negative income shock restricted access to markets and increased prices of food commodities affecting the consumption pattern. The pandemic wreaked a substantial physical...
COVID-19 incidence disrupted the food markets in India. The present study, adopting the interrupt... more COVID-19 incidence disrupted the food markets in India. The present study, adopting the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), captures the impact of pandemic induced lockdown on wholesale and retail wheat prices. Prices increased post-lockdown, however, there was no evidence of structural break as well as persisting volatility implying that the lockdown had no lasting impact on wheat prices. Retail prices witnessed an immediate increase post-lockdown across the country but significant only in west and north-east zones, and showed a decline in north and east zone. On the contrary, wholesale prices witnessed an immediate and significant increase in west and north-east zones; with a significant decrease in south zone. A negative post intervention trend in ITSA confirmed the result as a majority of the market zones reverted back to pre-lockdown levels which shall be attributed to the wheat arrivals post bumper harvest. Despite the relaxation allowed for agricultural related activities during the lockdown, price change in wheat has been observed across regions but reverted back owing to the system resilience. The findings affirm that market disruption is the main driver behind the observed price changes and government interventions like staggered procurement and logistics support resulted in wheat sector restoration
COVID-19 induced lock down has disrupted the food markets and commodity prices in India. This pap... more COVID-19 induced lock down has disrupted the food markets and commodity prices in India. This paper uses evidence from the official statistics on daily wholesale and retail prices (n=284) for major commodities by adopting interrupted timeseries analysis (ITSA). The results revealed that prices shot up immediately since lockdown, for chickpea, mung bean, and tomato. We find no evidence of structural break in food prices due to lockdown implying that the changes in prices caused by lockdown was not sufficient enough to alter the long-run price movement. ITSA confirmed the result as a majority of the commodity prices reverted indicating a negative post-intervention trend. We also triangulated the results with an online survey of 729 consumers coupled with a dipstick (telephone and personal interview) survey of 225 farmers. Despite the relaxation allowed for agricultural related activities during the lockdown, farmers reported disruption in disposing their winter produce barring wheat, covered by state procurement. The lockdown period coincided with the wheat harvest, the second most produced and consumed cereal in the country, resulting in a record procurement of 38.98 million tonnes in 2020. Consumers’ survey indicated that the pandemic restricted the access to food markets and a majority (75.31%) experienced an increase in the price of food items across intensity of COVID incidence. The pandemic has impacted the consumers’ livelihood from moderate (59.53%) to severe (3.3%) with 92 per cent reporting a change in shopping behavior. The Kruskal-Wallis test on Composite Consumption Behavior Change Index (CCBCI) indicated a significant shift among consumers who reported income change during the lockdown. The paper affirms that the pandemic has caused dramatic and unprecedented panic purchase by consumers as revealed by the survey. We strongly recommend for creation and functioning of suitable social safety nets to insulate vulnerable consumers and producers from the persistence and recurrence of pandemics.
During the 1950s, India was the major player in the pepper market. Recently India has dropped to ... more During the 1950s, India was the major player in the pepper market. Recently India has dropped to 4th position in production and exports. The price per kilogram of pepper in Cochin market reduced from ` 687 to ` 383 between 2014-15 and 2018-19. This manuscript attempts to study the reasons for the decline in India’s share in world pepper market and the recent fall in prices. The secondary data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, World Bank - World Integrated Trade Solutions, Reserve Bank of India and Spices Board of India were used for analysis. Transitional probability matrix was deployed to analyse the change in the direction of trade, relative comparative advantage and competitive index was used to study India’s market power in the international market. There has been a change in the direction of trade since 1999-2000. The results revealed a four per cent decline in area under pepper during 2000-2018, and now Indian pepper market has become import oriented with a CAGR in i...
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify the correlates of crop insurance adoption and est... more PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify the correlates of crop insurance adoption and estimate the impact on debt and farm income.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used nationally representative data from National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), which consisted of 35,200 farming households. Logit and propensity score matching (PSM) (nearest neighbor, caliper and kernel matching) techniques were used.FindingsWith only around 5% of households insuring their crops and 87% of them not receiving claims, crop insurance in India has failed. Logit model estimates of correlates of adoption indicated that households with larger family size, lower social group, less education, lower standard of living and poor were more likely to be left out of the ambit of crop insurance. Further, propensity score estimates suggested that households with access to crop insurance had significantly lesser outstanding debt with positive effect on input costs and crop income. The authors’ results were i...
This study is an attempt towards knowing farmers perspective on Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana ... more This study is an attempt towards knowing farmers perspective on Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY). Data was collected from 120 sample farmers in Karnataka among which 80 were insured and 40 were non-insured farmers. The results based on information solicited by farmers indicated that continuous drought in the previous years was the motivation to opt PMFBY. Education, farm size and the cost of borrowing from non-institutional sources significantly differed among insurers and non-insurers. Lack of awareness, lack of premium paying capacity and lack of faith were the reasons cited for not availing crop insurance by non-insured farmers. Discriminant analysis estimates revealed that factors like education, income, farm size, previous compensation, source and rate of short-term credit played an important role in discriminating farmers into different groups (loanee, non-loanee and non-insured). Farmers called for quick and transparent settlement of claims among other suggestions like individual farm assessment of losses to improve their participation in PMFBY.
The Economic Survey of India 2016–17 proposed universal basic income as a means to end those welf... more The Economic Survey of India 2016–17 proposed universal basic income as a means to end those welfare schemes in India plagued by inefficiency and misallocation. This paper assesses the results of cash transfer pilots in India and countries across the world to explore the potential of universal basic income in India. The pilot study at Madhya Pradesh proved that universal basic income led to near-universal financial inclusion, reduced indebtedness of the households and access to regular medication. Delhi's study proved that direct income enabled households to make a transition to better sanitation, cleaner fuel and consumption of non-cereals. Kenya's experiment showed a significant positive effect on psychological well-being due to regular monthly income. Recently, guaranteed income for farmers was announced under various schemes of states and the interim budget of the union government for the fiscal year 2019–20 taking into cognizance of persistent distress in agriculture. Such schemes must retain the element of continuity and commitment irrespective of the government of the day to ensure sustainability and desired outcomes. Further, the various facets of the changing political economy of India to drive the narrative of the universal basic income meaningfully were discussed.
Calcium (Ca) requirement increases tenfold upon parturition in dairy cows & buffaloes and its def... more Calcium (Ca) requirement increases tenfold upon parturition in dairy cows & buffaloes and its deficiency leads to a condition called milk fever (MF). Estimation of losses is necessary to understand the depth of the problem and design preventive measures. How much is the economic loss due to MF? What will be the efficiency gain if MF is prevented at the advent of a technology? We answer these questions using survey data and official statistics employing economic surplus model. MF incidence in sample buffaloes and cows was 19% and 28%, respectively. Total economic losses were calculated as a sum total of losses from milk production, mortality of animals and treatment costs. Yearly economic loss due to MF was estimated to be ₹ 1000 crores (US$ 137 million) in Haryana. Value of milk lost had the highest share in total economic losses (58%), followed by losses due to mortality (29%) and treatment costs (13%). Despite lower MF incidence, losses were higher in buffaloes due to higher milk ...
Farmers are in the scourge of an agrarian crisis. The major risk mitigation tool available for fa... more Farmers are in the scourge of an agrarian crisis. The major risk mitigation tool available for farmers is ‘crop insurance’. Unfortunately the concept of crop insurance has been a failure in India as in the year of peak performance of a crop insurance scheme (PMFBY) only around 35 per cent of the total arable land area is insured. Results from the study in Karnataka shows that less than 50 per cent of economic loss of farmers was compensated by PMFBY. Regression analysis indicated that claim payment had a significant impact on farmers’ coverage but claim payment has been faulty. Thus to improve the crop insurance products of India, review of crop insurance products of USA, China and Philippines were done. Taking insights from these a revenue based crop insurance model has been suggested as in USA to cover both the shortfalls in crop yield and price to increase the welfare of Indian farmers.
This study uses data from a nationally representative survey to identify the factors that determi... more This study uses data from a nationally representative survey to identify the factors that determine farm households’ choice of paddy marketing channels and the impact of the choice on the price realized. Small landholders sell their produce predominantly in informal or traditional value chains. Multinomial treatment effect estimates with endogenous market channels indicate that small landholders are less aware of the government-set floor price (minimum support price) and they realize lower prices and earn lower incomes than farmers selling in mandis (regulated markets).
Distortion in distribution and consumption of agricultural commodities is a result of disruptive ... more Distortion in distribution and consumption of agricultural commodities is a result of disruptive shocks in prices and food value chains leading to a significant food loss as well as waste. We investigated the COVID-19 induced lockdown effects in India through an interrupted time series analysis coupled with a survey result of 729 consumers, 225 farmers and synthesis of the literature evidence on food loss as well as food waste. Our article complements the literature inventory on COVID-19 by estimating and tracking the effects on prices and consumer behaviour in the long-run apart from discussing the implications for food loss and waste. Prices post-lockdown shot up immediately and significantly for chickpea (4.8%), mung bean (5.2%), and tomato (78.2%) corroborating the loss in highly perishable product-tomato-owing to its spiked price. We find no structural break in prices due to lockdown implying that lockdown-induced price change was not sufficient to alter the long-run price movement, and the prices of the major commodities reverted to the pre-lockdown levels. The pandemic induced lockdown did restrict the access to food markets and a majority of consumers (75.31%) experienced a price increase across COVID zones of different intensity of incidence leading to food loss along supply chain and wastage at consumers end. Consumers' livelihood affected from moderate (59.53%) to severe (3.3%) with 92 per cent reporting a change in shopping behavior. The Kruskal-Wallis test on consumption behavior change indicated a significant shift among the consumers reporting altered income, mostly in the downside, post-lockdown. Despite the relaxation for agricultural related activities during the lockdown, farmers reported disruption in disposing their winter produce barring wheat, bolstered by a record state procurement in 2020. The paper affirms that the pandemic has caused a significant price change and unprecedented panic purchase that led to the food wastage but subsided soon exhibiting the resilience in Indian agriculture. We strongly recommend for promoting the capacity and collective resilience of small-scale production systems through institutions, policies and reforms. Contract farming, farmer producer organizations, creation and functioning of social safety nets to overcome income, production and price shocks, access to digital national markets and capacity building on food waste management practices will insulate vulnerable section as well as reduce the loss of food across supply chain.
Manual On Advanced Research Methodology for the Social Sciences, 2020
This chapter explains what is a randomized evaluation from steps in a program evaluation to the c... more This chapter explains what is a randomized evaluation from steps in a program evaluation to the cost effectiveness analysis. Power calculation and random assignment in STATA is illustrated along with data requirements. Results of a few RCTs is discussed along with threats and critics of randomized evaluations.
COVID-19 induced lockdown has disrupted the food markets and commodity prices in India. This pape... more COVID-19 induced lockdown has disrupted the food markets and commodity prices in India. This paper uses evidence from the official statistics on daily wholesale and retail prices (n=284) for major commodities by adopting interrupted time series analysis (ITSA). The results revealed that prices shot up immediately since lockdown, for chickpea, mung bean, and tomato. We find no evidence of structural break in food prices due to lockdown implying that the changes in prices caused by lockdown was not sufficient enough to alter the long-run price movement. ITSA confirmed the result as a majority of the commodity prices reverted indicating a negative post-intervention trend. We also triangulated the results with an online survey of 729 consumers coupled with a dipstick (telephone and personal interview) survey of 225 farmers. Despite the relaxation allowed for agricultural related activities during the lockdown, farmers reported disruption in disposing their winter produce barring wheat, covered by state procurement. The lockdown period coincided with the wheat harvest, the second most produced and consumed cereal in the country, resulting in a record procurement of 38.98 million tonnes in 2020. Consumers' survey indicated that the pandemic restricted the access to food markets and a majority (75.31%) experienced an increase in the price of food items across intensity of COVID incidence. The pandemic has impacted the consumers' livelihood from moderate (59.53%) to severe (3.3%) with 92 per cent reporting a change in shopping behavior. The Kruskal-Wallis test on Composite Consumption Behavior Change Index (CCBCI) indicated a significant shift among consumers who reported income change during the lockdown. The paper affirms that the pandemic has caused dramatic and unprecedented panic purchase by consumers as revealed by the survey. We strongly recommend for creation and functioning of suitable social safety nets to insulate vulnerable consumers and producers from the persistence and recurrence of pandemics.
COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the Indian agricultural system extensively. Nevertheless, the rec... more COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the Indian agricultural system extensively. Nevertheless, the recent quarterly GDP estimates post-COVID scenario showcase robustness and resilience in Indian agriculture, the only sector to register a positive growth of 3.4% during the financial year (FY here after) 2020–21 (Quarter 1: April 2020 to June 2020). At the same time, the immediate past quarter growth was estimated at 5.9% witnessing a decline by 2.5% point. In this context, we aim to synthesize the early evidence of the COVID-19 impact on the Indian agricultural system viz., production, marketing and consumption followed by a set of potential strategies to recover and prosper post-pandemic. Survey findings indicate that the pandemic has affected production and marketing through labour and logistical constraints, while the negative income shock restricted access to markets and increased prices of food commodities affecting the consumption pattern. The pandemic wreaked a substantial physical, social, economic and emotional havoc on all the stakeholders of Indian agricultural system. Seizing the crisis as an opportunity, the state announced a raft of measures and long-pending reforms. We propose a 10-point strategy ranging from social safety nets, family farming, monetizing buffer stock, staggered procurement to secondary agriculture to revive and prosper post-pandemic.
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Papers by Adeeth Cariappa