I have received my PhD in economics in 2009 from Georgetown University which is one of the most prestigious and well-known universities in United States. My doctoral dissertation examines monetary policy shocks using a DSGE model and analyzes the role of labor market institutions on inflation and wage dynamics. During my PhD study at Georgetown University, I also worked as a teaching assistant and helped students in various undergraduate and graduate courses.Until I obtained my tenure and become an Associate Professor of Economics in October 2013, my research agenda was about Turkish banking industry. As you may also see in my CV, I published various papers in well-known journals about credit channel of monetary policy, concentration and competition, determinants of non-performing loans and profitability in Turkish banking sector. During this period, I also founded a research center in the university and I published regular reports about the economic developments in Turkey. After I get my tenure, my research agenda is generally shaped by energy economics and I published various academic papers and non-academic policy reports on this issue. Some of those policy papers have some strong policy implications and have been discussed by government officials. One of those papers entitled “Energy Future of Europe and the Role of Southern Gas Corridor” was chosen as one of the well-written policy papers in United States. My position as a senior fellow at Caspian Strategy Institute, an Istanbul based think tank, significantly contributed my research portfolio during this period. I also write a number of articles on magazines and daily newspapers on local and global economic issues. Address: Istanbul, Istanbul, Turkey
Ozet Bu calismada 2005-2011 arasi donemde Turk katilim bankalari icin takipteki kredi oranini bel... more Ozet Bu calismada 2005-2011 arasi donemde Turk katilim bankalari icin takipteki kredi oranini belirleyen makroekonomik ve mikro faktorler incelenmistir. Calismanin neticesinde kredilerin toplam varliklara oraninin yuksek oldugu bankalarda takipteki kredi oraninin daha dusuk oldugu gorulmustur. Aktif buyuklugunun de takipteki kredi oranini negatif etkiledigi gorulmustur. Makroekonomik faktor olarak GSYIH buyumesindeki dususun hem ayni donemde hem de gecikmeli olarak takipteki kredi oranini artirdigi gorulurken, doviz kuru seviyesinin ve enflasyon oraninin takipteki kredi orani uzerinde anlamli bir etkisi olmadigi gorulmustur. GSYIH buyumesi yerine issizlik rakamlari koyuldugunda issizlik oraninda meydana gelecek bir artisin problemli kredileri anlamli bir sekilde artirdigi gorulmustur. The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Ratio: Empirical Evidence From Participation Banks in Turkey Abstract In this study, the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that have impact on non-performing loan ratio of Turkish participation banks between 2005 and 2011. According to the results; the ratio of non-performing loans is low in those banks where the ratio of loans to total assets is low. Asset size also found to have negative impact on non-performing loan ratio. Among the macroeconomic factors; the decrease in GDP increase has increased the ratio of non-performing loans both in the same term and in the following terms, whereas foreign exchange rate and inflation rate have no significant impact. When the GDP is replaced with unemployment rates, it was observed that any increase in the unemployment rates would increase these problematic loans in a significant way.
In this paper we investigate the determinants of the short-run post-IPO market performance of IPO... more In this paper we investigate the determinants of the short-run post-IPO market performance of IPO stocks for Turkish markets. We looked at various firm specific accounting and IPO related variables namely the ratio of operating profit to total sales, the ratio of total debt to total assets, IPO size, public float, the ratio of shares that are purchased by foreign investors, and the market value to book value ratio. We find that IPO size appears to be the most important variable in determining the post-IPO market performance of IPO stocks. Large IPO’s tend to have a better post-IPO market performance. Besides that firms with a larger debt ratio are expected to show a better performance in the short-run. It is seen that as public float increases IPOs tend to show a poorer performance.
The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the concentration and the... more The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the concentration and the lending channel of monetary policy by looking at the Turkish banking sector for the period between 2006 and 2012. We use bank-level data for fourteen largest commercial banks which have share of more than 90% of total loans in Turkish banking sector. We analyze the concentration measurements for different balance sheet items including total assets and loans. We find that the level of concentration have not shown an important change for this relevant period. Our results provide consistent evidence that a rise in concentration in the banking sector weakens the bank lending channel, in turn, resulting in monetary policy to be less efficient and this works through the impacts on smaller and less capitalized banks.
In this paper I investigate the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio for commercial ... more In this paper I investigate the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio for commercial banks in Turkey by incorporating bank specific and macroeconomic variables. I find that banks with a higher equity to total assets ratio and a higher net interest margin are expected to have a higher NPLs ratio whereas an increase in net loans to total assets ratio is expected to reduce the NPLs. The results also reveal that public banks and foreign banks are expected to have a higher NPLs ratio. In terms of macroeconomic variables GDP growth shows its effect on NPLs with a lag and a domestic currency depreciation is expected to deteriorate the loan portfolios of commercial banks.
In this paper I investigate how the natural rate of unemployment is affected from various institu... more In this paper I investigate how the natural rate of unemployment is affected from various institutions of the labor market. I find that union density, benefit replacement rate, expenditure on active labor market policies per unemployed person, and employment protection legislation play a significant role in explaining the differences in long-term unemployment rates across the OECD countries. Besides that, I also look at whether the vacancy rate and the participation rate are affected from the structure of the labor markets. An increase in the employment protection legislation index and union density generate a decline in the vacancy rate. As far as the participation rate is concerned, an increase in the employment protection legislation index and benet replacement rate increase the inactivity rate, whereas an increase in expenditure on active labor market policies causes an increase in the participation rate.
In this paper we investigate how the labor productivity growth is affected from various instituti... more In this paper we investigate how the labor productivity growth is affected from various institutions of the labor market using the empirical evidence from a panel data of OECD countries. We find that benefit replacement rate, benefit duration index, and the tax wedge appear to be significant labor market institutions affecting the labor productivity growth. A higher benefit replacement rate, a longer duration of unemployment benefits, and a higher tax wedge are expected to generate a lower labor productivity growth.
In this paper we examine the market value to book value ratios for publicly traded banks in Turki... more In this paper we examine the market value to book value ratios for publicly traded banks in Turkish banking sector and investigate whether the bank fundamentals could explain the observed differences among the banks. We find that bank fundamentals play a significant role in explaining the differences in market value to book value ratios. The results reveal that banks with higher profitability and a higher ratio of non-interest revenue to total interest revenue tend to have higher market value to book value ratios. Banks with higher net loans to total assets ratio, a larger asset size, and a higher equity to total assets ratio are expected to have lower market value to book value ratios. We also find that public banks and foreign banks tend to have higher market value to book value ratio whereas participation banks and investment banks tend to have lower valuations.
Economic ties play a special role in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Since the launch of bilateral... more Economic ties play a special role in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Since the launch of bilateral ties over two decades ago, the two countries have deepened their economic partnership through bilateral trade, joint energy projects, and foreign direct investments, adding a solid foundation to their multi-faceted strategic cooperation. This article examines these dynamics, putting forward the argument that the patterns of mutual trade and investment have evolved parallel to two complementary processes of change: a) economic conditions in the two countries and b) the broader strategic context within which they operate. It also examines the ways in which, during recent years, investment flows have been the main engine of economic cooperation between Ankara and Baku, consolidating mutual interdependence at a strategic level
The objective of this article is to investigate the effect of government expenditure on GDP in Tu... more The objective of this article is to investigate the effect of government expenditure on GDP in Turkey from 2000Q1-2015Q4 by the superexogeneity test. As a consequence of satisfying both conditions of weak exogeneity and structural invariance, government expenditure is super exogenous to GDP which implies that the policy regime shift for the period of the Global Financial Crisis in Turkey did not cause structural variance in government expenditure. Indeed, the Lucas Critique which indicates that policy regime shifts cause structural breaks, appears to be refuted.
In this paper we investigate the determinants of the short-run post-IPO market performance of IPO... more In this paper we investigate the determinants of the short-run post-IPO market performance of IPO stocks for Turkish markets. We looked at various firm specific accounting and IPO related variables namely the ratio of operating profit to total sales, the ratio of total debt to total assets, IPO size, public float, the ratio of shares that are purchased by foreign investors, and the market value to book value ratio. We find that IPO size appears to be the most important variable in determining the post-IPO market performance of IPO stocks. Large IPO's tend to have a better post-IPO market performance. Besides that firms with a larger debt ratio are expected to show a better performance in the short-run. It is seen that as public float increases IPOs tend to show a poorer performance.
Ozet Bu calismada 2005-2011 arasi donemde Turk katilim bankalari icin takipteki kredi oranini bel... more Ozet Bu calismada 2005-2011 arasi donemde Turk katilim bankalari icin takipteki kredi oranini belirleyen makroekonomik ve mikro faktorler incelenmistir. Calismanin neticesinde kredilerin toplam varliklara oraninin yuksek oldugu bankalarda takipteki kredi oraninin daha dusuk oldugu gorulmustur. Aktif buyuklugunun de takipteki kredi oranini negatif etkiledigi gorulmustur. Makroekonomik faktor olarak GSYIH buyumesindeki dususun hem ayni donemde hem de gecikmeli olarak takipteki kredi oranini artirdigi gorulurken, doviz kuru seviyesinin ve enflasyon oraninin takipteki kredi orani uzerinde anlamli bir etkisi olmadigi gorulmustur. GSYIH buyumesi yerine issizlik rakamlari koyuldugunda issizlik oraninda meydana gelecek bir artisin problemli kredileri anlamli bir sekilde artirdigi gorulmustur. The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Ratio: Empirical Evidence From Participation Banks in Turkey Abstract In this study, the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that have impact on non-performing loan ratio of Turkish participation banks between 2005 and 2011. According to the results; the ratio of non-performing loans is low in those banks where the ratio of loans to total assets is low. Asset size also found to have negative impact on non-performing loan ratio. Among the macroeconomic factors; the decrease in GDP increase has increased the ratio of non-performing loans both in the same term and in the following terms, whereas foreign exchange rate and inflation rate have no significant impact. When the GDP is replaced with unemployment rates, it was observed that any increase in the unemployment rates would increase these problematic loans in a significant way.
In this paper we investigate the determinants of the short-run post-IPO market performance of IPO... more In this paper we investigate the determinants of the short-run post-IPO market performance of IPO stocks for Turkish markets. We looked at various firm specific accounting and IPO related variables namely the ratio of operating profit to total sales, the ratio of total debt to total assets, IPO size, public float, the ratio of shares that are purchased by foreign investors, and the market value to book value ratio. We find that IPO size appears to be the most important variable in determining the post-IPO market performance of IPO stocks. Large IPO’s tend to have a better post-IPO market performance. Besides that firms with a larger debt ratio are expected to show a better performance in the short-run. It is seen that as public float increases IPOs tend to show a poorer performance.
The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the concentration and the... more The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the concentration and the lending channel of monetary policy by looking at the Turkish banking sector for the period between 2006 and 2012. We use bank-level data for fourteen largest commercial banks which have share of more than 90% of total loans in Turkish banking sector. We analyze the concentration measurements for different balance sheet items including total assets and loans. We find that the level of concentration have not shown an important change for this relevant period. Our results provide consistent evidence that a rise in concentration in the banking sector weakens the bank lending channel, in turn, resulting in monetary policy to be less efficient and this works through the impacts on smaller and less capitalized banks.
In this paper I investigate the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio for commercial ... more In this paper I investigate the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio for commercial banks in Turkey by incorporating bank specific and macroeconomic variables. I find that banks with a higher equity to total assets ratio and a higher net interest margin are expected to have a higher NPLs ratio whereas an increase in net loans to total assets ratio is expected to reduce the NPLs. The results also reveal that public banks and foreign banks are expected to have a higher NPLs ratio. In terms of macroeconomic variables GDP growth shows its effect on NPLs with a lag and a domestic currency depreciation is expected to deteriorate the loan portfolios of commercial banks.
In this paper I investigate how the natural rate of unemployment is affected from various institu... more In this paper I investigate how the natural rate of unemployment is affected from various institutions of the labor market. I find that union density, benefit replacement rate, expenditure on active labor market policies per unemployed person, and employment protection legislation play a significant role in explaining the differences in long-term unemployment rates across the OECD countries. Besides that, I also look at whether the vacancy rate and the participation rate are affected from the structure of the labor markets. An increase in the employment protection legislation index and union density generate a decline in the vacancy rate. As far as the participation rate is concerned, an increase in the employment protection legislation index and benet replacement rate increase the inactivity rate, whereas an increase in expenditure on active labor market policies causes an increase in the participation rate.
In this paper we investigate how the labor productivity growth is affected from various instituti... more In this paper we investigate how the labor productivity growth is affected from various institutions of the labor market using the empirical evidence from a panel data of OECD countries. We find that benefit replacement rate, benefit duration index, and the tax wedge appear to be significant labor market institutions affecting the labor productivity growth. A higher benefit replacement rate, a longer duration of unemployment benefits, and a higher tax wedge are expected to generate a lower labor productivity growth.
In this paper we examine the market value to book value ratios for publicly traded banks in Turki... more In this paper we examine the market value to book value ratios for publicly traded banks in Turkish banking sector and investigate whether the bank fundamentals could explain the observed differences among the banks. We find that bank fundamentals play a significant role in explaining the differences in market value to book value ratios. The results reveal that banks with higher profitability and a higher ratio of non-interest revenue to total interest revenue tend to have higher market value to book value ratios. Banks with higher net loans to total assets ratio, a larger asset size, and a higher equity to total assets ratio are expected to have lower market value to book value ratios. We also find that public banks and foreign banks tend to have higher market value to book value ratio whereas participation banks and investment banks tend to have lower valuations.
Economic ties play a special role in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Since the launch of bilateral... more Economic ties play a special role in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Since the launch of bilateral ties over two decades ago, the two countries have deepened their economic partnership through bilateral trade, joint energy projects, and foreign direct investments, adding a solid foundation to their multi-faceted strategic cooperation. This article examines these dynamics, putting forward the argument that the patterns of mutual trade and investment have evolved parallel to two complementary processes of change: a) economic conditions in the two countries and b) the broader strategic context within which they operate. It also examines the ways in which, during recent years, investment flows have been the main engine of economic cooperation between Ankara and Baku, consolidating mutual interdependence at a strategic level
The objective of this article is to investigate the effect of government expenditure on GDP in Tu... more The objective of this article is to investigate the effect of government expenditure on GDP in Turkey from 2000Q1-2015Q4 by the superexogeneity test. As a consequence of satisfying both conditions of weak exogeneity and structural invariance, government expenditure is super exogenous to GDP which implies that the policy regime shift for the period of the Global Financial Crisis in Turkey did not cause structural variance in government expenditure. Indeed, the Lucas Critique which indicates that policy regime shifts cause structural breaks, appears to be refuted.
In this paper we investigate the determinants of the short-run post-IPO market performance of IPO... more In this paper we investigate the determinants of the short-run post-IPO market performance of IPO stocks for Turkish markets. We looked at various firm specific accounting and IPO related variables namely the ratio of operating profit to total sales, the ratio of total debt to total assets, IPO size, public float, the ratio of shares that are purchased by foreign investors, and the market value to book value ratio. We find that IPO size appears to be the most important variable in determining the post-IPO market performance of IPO stocks. Large IPO's tend to have a better post-IPO market performance. Besides that firms with a larger debt ratio are expected to show a better performance in the short-run. It is seen that as public float increases IPOs tend to show a poorer performance.
Europe is one of the biggest importers and consumers of natural gas in the world. About 12.8% of ... more Europe is one of the biggest importers and consumers of natural gas in the world. About 12.8% of global gas consumption is coming from Europe whereas it only produces 2% of global gas volume. Therefore, ensuring a diverse, secure, and affordable supply of natural gas is vital for Europe to maintain sustainable growth. In this paper, an economic perspective will be provided for a new pipeline project, namely Turk Stream that is expected to transport natural gas to European Union (EU). A demand and supply analysis will be performed in terms of understanding whether EU really needs such a pipeline and in particular there will be a focus for the implication of this new project for Turkey.
The recent decline in oil prices and the possibility that these low prices may continue for a lon... more The recent decline in oil prices and the possibility that these low prices may continue for a long period of time have the potential to change the long-term macroeconomic dynamics in exporting countries. Learning how to live with low oil prices and adopting appropriate economic policies is going to be a priority for these countries over the next two or three years in order to be able to deal with this new economic environment. In this paper we will look at this issue from the perspective of Azerbaijan and will discuss the necessary policies that will help the Azerbaijani economy in terms of achieving long-term sustainable growth in the case of low oil prices.
The recent decline in oil prices and the possibility that these low prices may continue for a lon... more The recent decline in oil prices and the possibility that these low prices may continue for a long period of time have the potential to change the long-term macroeconomic dynamics in exporting countries. Learning how to live with low oil prices and adopting appropriate economic policies is going to be a priority for these countries over the next two or three years in order to be able to deal with this new economic environment. In this paper we will look at this issue from the perspective of Azerbaijan and will discuss the necessary policies that will help the Azerbaijani economy in terms of achieving long-term sustainable growth in the case of low oil prices.
Bu raporda İran’ın Batılı devletler ile yapmış olduğu anlaşmanın İran’ın petrokimya sektörüne yön... more Bu raporda İran’ın Batılı devletler ile yapmış olduğu anlaşmanın İran’ın petrokimya sektörüne yönelik etkileri ve bunun Türkiye açısından anlamı incelenmektedir. Öncelikle İran’ın petrol ve doğalgaz görünümü temel olarak ele alınmakta ve önümüzdeki dönemde oluşacak gelişmelere ilişkin beklentiler analiz edilmektedir. Sonrasında İran’ın petrokimya sektörü görünümü ele alınmakta ve yaptırımların kalkması ile birlikte sektörde ulaşılması beklenen hedefler irdelenmektedir. Üçüncü kısımda Türkiye petrokimya sektörü analiz edilmekte olup son kısımda İran anlaşmasının Türkiye petrokimya sektörüne yönelik etkileri değerlendirilmektedir. Bu kısımda hem İran anlaşması ile oluşabilecek olumsuz etkilerin giderilmesi hem de Türkiye’nin genel olarak petrokimya sektöründe dışa bağımlılığının azaltılmasına yönelik politika önerileri de tartışılmaktadır.
The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the concentration and the... more The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the concentration and the lending channel of monetary policy by looking at the Turkish banking sector for the period between 2006 and 2012. We use bank-level data for fourteen largest commercial banks which have share of more than 90% of total loans in Turkish banking sector. We analyze the concentration measurements for different balance sheet items including total assets and loans. We find that the level of concentration have not shown an important change for this relevant period. Our results provide consistent evidence that a rise in concentration in the banking sector weakens the bank lending channel, in turn, resulting in monetary policy to be less efficient and this works through the impacts on smaller and less capitalized banks.
Uploads
Papers by Fatih Macit