The 2017 peace accord between the Colombian Government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de... more The 2017 peace accord between the Colombian Government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, or FARC, is an historic achievement that must be reinforced by defense sector readiness. Despite the FARC Secretariat’s reconciliation overtures, the FARC and its network is a hybrid threat that is likely to continue to plague the region. Past precedent and current trends indicate that the FARC will either evolve or entirely re-invent itself in order to protect and expand its criminal enterprise and regenerate its influence in the region
Crosscutting Issues in International Transformation, Interactions and Innovations among People, O... more Crosscutting Issues in International Transformation, Interactions and Innovations among People, Organizations, Processes, and Technology, Essay 13, pp. 249-270, December 2009.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represe... more Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or Naval Postgraduate School.
Even as coalition forces mass on the suburbs of Mosul and prepare their assault on the last major... more Even as coalition forces mass on the suburbs of Mosul and prepare their assault on the last major ISIS stronghold in Iraq, strategic planners are far from declaring victory. After all, only two years ago the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or ISIL, captured the Middle East and the world by storm when they launched their bold and brutal offensive across broad swathes of Iraq and Syria. Major cities from Ramadi to Aleppo were toppled like dominoes, and for a time even Baghdad appeared vulnerable. Today, as ISIS begrudgingly withdraws from occupied territories, they are re-inventing themselves as a transnational threat, as evidenced by horrific ISIS-affiliated or inspired terror attacks in Brussels, Paris, Jakarta, San Bernardino, and Manhattan.[i] US ground commander Lieutenant General Sean McFarland's grave warning is already proving prophetic: " Military success in Iraq and Syria will not necessarily mean the end of [ISIS]. We can expect the enemy to adapt, to morph into a true insurgent force and terrorist organization capable of horrific attacks. " [ii] Since its inception, ISIS has distinguished itself from other terror organizations in its ambition and tactics, which many defense analysts have characterized as a hybrid threat. To be certain, the ISIS of 2016 looks and acts very differently than it did two years ago, a testament to their ability to rapidly transition from a position of relative strength and adapt to face an overmatching adversary and persevere for the long-term. Despite the loss of ground, ISIS will continue to use multivariant activities to target vulnerabilities and achieve synergistic effects. This article re-visits the authors' assertion in a previous SWJ publication[iii] that ISIS is indeed a hybrid threat, and that this characterization has implications for decision-makers and planners. The authors propose a conceptual framework for countering ISIS based upon an analysis of their key characteristics and use of a model for understanding and predicting likely transitions and adaptations that hybrid threats employ in response to fluid operational conditions.
The military instrument alone cannot deal with complex crises involving diverse communities. Ex... more The military instrument alone cannot deal with complex crises involving diverse communities. Existing strategies, organizations, and force structures are in many cases poorly suited to future contingencies. Accordingly, national and intergovernmental organizations have sought responses to increasingly complex challenges. Among them is the notion of a comprehensive approach. This paper examines the principles and mechanisms of a comprehensive approach as applied to multinational peacekeeping and maritime, cyber, and energy security.
The 2017 peace accord between the Colombian Government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de... more The 2017 peace accord between the Colombian Government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, or FARC, is an historic achievement that must be reinforced by defense sector readiness. Despite the FARC Secretariat’s reconciliation overtures, the FARC and its network is a hybrid threat that is likely to continue to plague the region. Past precedent and current trends indicate that the FARC will either evolve or entirely re-invent itself in order to protect and expand its criminal enterprise and regenerate its influence in the region
Crosscutting Issues in International Transformation, Interactions and Innovations among People, O... more Crosscutting Issues in International Transformation, Interactions and Innovations among People, Organizations, Processes, and Technology, Essay 13, pp. 249-270, December 2009.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represe... more Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or Naval Postgraduate School.
Even as coalition forces mass on the suburbs of Mosul and prepare their assault on the last major... more Even as coalition forces mass on the suburbs of Mosul and prepare their assault on the last major ISIS stronghold in Iraq, strategic planners are far from declaring victory. After all, only two years ago the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or ISIL, captured the Middle East and the world by storm when they launched their bold and brutal offensive across broad swathes of Iraq and Syria. Major cities from Ramadi to Aleppo were toppled like dominoes, and for a time even Baghdad appeared vulnerable. Today, as ISIS begrudgingly withdraws from occupied territories, they are re-inventing themselves as a transnational threat, as evidenced by horrific ISIS-affiliated or inspired terror attacks in Brussels, Paris, Jakarta, San Bernardino, and Manhattan.[i] US ground commander Lieutenant General Sean McFarland's grave warning is already proving prophetic: " Military success in Iraq and Syria will not necessarily mean the end of [ISIS]. We can expect the enemy to adapt, to morph into a true insurgent force and terrorist organization capable of horrific attacks. " [ii] Since its inception, ISIS has distinguished itself from other terror organizations in its ambition and tactics, which many defense analysts have characterized as a hybrid threat. To be certain, the ISIS of 2016 looks and acts very differently than it did two years ago, a testament to their ability to rapidly transition from a position of relative strength and adapt to face an overmatching adversary and persevere for the long-term. Despite the loss of ground, ISIS will continue to use multivariant activities to target vulnerabilities and achieve synergistic effects. This article re-visits the authors' assertion in a previous SWJ publication[iii] that ISIS is indeed a hybrid threat, and that this characterization has implications for decision-makers and planners. The authors propose a conceptual framework for countering ISIS based upon an analysis of their key characteristics and use of a model for understanding and predicting likely transitions and adaptations that hybrid threats employ in response to fluid operational conditions.
The military instrument alone cannot deal with complex crises involving diverse communities. Ex... more The military instrument alone cannot deal with complex crises involving diverse communities. Existing strategies, organizations, and force structures are in many cases poorly suited to future contingencies. Accordingly, national and intergovernmental organizations have sought responses to increasingly complex challenges. Among them is the notion of a comprehensive approach. This paper examines the principles and mechanisms of a comprehensive approach as applied to multinational peacekeeping and maritime, cyber, and energy security.
Uploads