Human mobility impacts the global climate and the climate in turn impacts human mobility. Fuel-ba... more Human mobility impacts the global climate and the climate in turn impacts human mobility. Fuel-based transport emits CO2 and electric transport raises the issue of electricity production and its environmental impacts. Conversely, roads, railways, vehicles and ways of travelling can be impacted by extreme climate events, such as floods, storms, thawing permafrost and melting asphalt. This second aspect of the relationship between climate change and human mobility is rarely explored, even within the scholarship on ‘climate mobility’. Focusing on Central Asia, this chapter presents the specificities of the region regarding the environment–mobilities nexus and highlights the adverse impacts of climate-related mobility disruptions for the populations of the region. The chapter is based on the author’s fieldwork in Central Asia, particularly in Tajikistan, and on press articles and scientific literature on the topic. It discusses the complex relationship between mobilities and climate cha...
The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southe... more The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To achieve ASEAN’s target of 23% renewables in the primary energy supply by 2025, the region would need to invest USD 27 billion in renewable energy every year. However, the ASEAN countries attracted no more than USD 8 billion annually from 2016 to 2021. Through a comparative review of three key factors for attracting investment—renewable energy legislation, energy governance reform, and general conditions for investors—this study examines why the region’s renewable energy sector has not attracted more capital. The contribution of the article is threefold. First, it develops a new review model for assessing the business climate for renewable energy in any country. Second, it offers an update on the state of renewable energy deployment in the ASEAN countries. Third, taking into account international best practices, it identifies the obstacles and solutions to at...
This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. D... more This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. Data on the production, consumption, export and import of coal, natural gas and oil are summarised for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. While promoting renewable energy, Central Asia continues to rely on and expand the use of coal, natural gas and oil with no major phase-out plans yet on the horizon.
The dataset is based on a broad range of sources, including news media, mining company websites, ... more The dataset is based on a broad range of sources, including news media, mining company websites, official government catalogues, and mineral maps in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings i... more This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings indicate that trade promotion and industrial development are the sectors where there is most BRI-related activity in Central Asia. The total number of projects in these areas approximates the number of projects in all other areas combined. These sectors also receive most investment. In terms of the number of implemented projects, roads is the second key sector, followed by energy. However, due to larger project sizes, energy receives more funds than roads. The majority of Chinese projects in Central Asia are bilateral.
Mineral resources is the sector that receives most Chinese investment in Central Asia. China and ... more Mineral resources is the sector that receives most Chinese investment in Central Asia. China and its Central Asian partners pursue both strategic and commercial goals by promoting projects in the minerals sector. Kazakhstan hosts the largest number of projects and receives the largest amount of Chinese investment. The second largest recipient of financing is Turkmenistan, where several big projects are implemented.
One of the strategic objectives of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia is to provi... more One of the strategic objectives of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia is to provide China with alternative import/export and energy supply routes. This data article shows that the presentation and coverage of BRI projects varies considerably from country to country. The largest number of BRI projects in Central Asia are implemented in Kazakhstan and are in the oil and gas sector. By contrast, Turkmenistan is implementing only a few Chinese energy projects, though they are large-scale and its sum of investment is the second-largest of the Central Asian states
This data article surveys the hydropower potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhsta... more This data article surveys the hydropower potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The dataset presents the theoretical hydropower supply capacity of all the river basins of Central Asia. It was prepared using data from national and international sources, and it provides information on installed small and medium hydropower capacities and planned projects in the above-mentioned countries
The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportun... more The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportunity for Central Asia. A specific economic policy response may trigger either game-changing reforms that can facilitate the development of full-fledged market institutions or lead to a protracted crisis that would jeopardize almost 30-year long market economy transition progress. As it is rather unclear where the recovery pendulum will make its final swing, the current situation provides fruitful soil for various assumptions. This paper proposes and examines four scenarios of economic response strategies for the region as a whole, and for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, that result in unique development trajectories. The paper employs the foresight methodology to build four scenarios related to the situation after the lockdown is fully lifted. The scenarios serve the purpose of helping decision makers to embark on informed decisions while shaping anti-crisis measures and better understand causality mechanisms behind their policy choices. Scenario 1 (Protectionist Autarky): Stability upheld, limited reforms, increased role of the state and protectionism. Scenario 2 (Impactful Diversification): Increased social support, augmented role of the private sector, comprehensive diversification and enhanced regionalization. Scenario 3 (Inertial Asymmetry): Selective support measures, inequality-conducive, restricted diversification and limited reforms, “business-as-usual” commodity market, growing regionalization. Scenario 4 (Unleashed Bazaar): Major institutional reforms, FDI-oriented economic openness, leapfrogging from stagnant to advanced emerging markets.
Human mobility impacts the global climate and the climate in turn impacts human mobility. Fuel-ba... more Human mobility impacts the global climate and the climate in turn impacts human mobility. Fuel-based transport emits CO2 and electric transport raises the issue of electricity production and its environmental impacts. Conversely, roads, railways, vehicles and ways of travelling can be impacted by extreme climate events, such as floods, storms, thawing permafrost and melting asphalt. This second aspect of the relationship between climate change and human mobility is rarely explored, even within the scholarship on ‘climate mobility’. Focusing on Central Asia, this chapter presents the specificities of the region regarding the environment–mobilities nexus and highlights the adverse impacts of climate-related mobility disruptions for the populations of the region. The chapter is based on the author’s fieldwork in Central Asia, particularly in Tajikistan, and on press articles and scientific literature on the topic. It discusses the complex relationship between mobilities and climate cha...
The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southe... more The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To achieve ASEAN’s target of 23% renewables in the primary energy supply by 2025, the region would need to invest USD 27 billion in renewable energy every year. However, the ASEAN countries attracted no more than USD 8 billion annually from 2016 to 2021. Through a comparative review of three key factors for attracting investment—renewable energy legislation, energy governance reform, and general conditions for investors—this study examines why the region’s renewable energy sector has not attracted more capital. The contribution of the article is threefold. First, it develops a new review model for assessing the business climate for renewable energy in any country. Second, it offers an update on the state of renewable energy deployment in the ASEAN countries. Third, taking into account international best practices, it identifies the obstacles and solutions to at...
This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. D... more This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. Data on the production, consumption, export and import of coal, natural gas and oil are summarised for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. While promoting renewable energy, Central Asia continues to rely on and expand the use of coal, natural gas and oil with no major phase-out plans yet on the horizon.
The dataset is based on a broad range of sources, including news media, mining company websites, ... more The dataset is based on a broad range of sources, including news media, mining company websites, official government catalogues, and mineral maps in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings i... more This data article summarizes the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings indicate that trade promotion and industrial development are the sectors where there is most BRI-related activity in Central Asia. The total number of projects in these areas approximates the number of projects in all other areas combined. These sectors also receive most investment. In terms of the number of implemented projects, roads is the second key sector, followed by energy. However, due to larger project sizes, energy receives more funds than roads. The majority of Chinese projects in Central Asia are bilateral.
Mineral resources is the sector that receives most Chinese investment in Central Asia. China and ... more Mineral resources is the sector that receives most Chinese investment in Central Asia. China and its Central Asian partners pursue both strategic and commercial goals by promoting projects in the minerals sector. Kazakhstan hosts the largest number of projects and receives the largest amount of Chinese investment. The second largest recipient of financing is Turkmenistan, where several big projects are implemented.
One of the strategic objectives of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia is to provi... more One of the strategic objectives of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia is to provide China with alternative import/export and energy supply routes. This data article shows that the presentation and coverage of BRI projects varies considerably from country to country. The largest number of BRI projects in Central Asia are implemented in Kazakhstan and are in the oil and gas sector. By contrast, Turkmenistan is implementing only a few Chinese energy projects, though they are large-scale and its sum of investment is the second-largest of the Central Asian states
This data article surveys the hydropower potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhsta... more This data article surveys the hydropower potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The dataset presents the theoretical hydropower supply capacity of all the river basins of Central Asia. It was prepared using data from national and international sources, and it provides information on installed small and medium hydropower capacities and planned projects in the above-mentioned countries
The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportun... more The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportunity for Central Asia. A specific economic policy response may trigger either game-changing reforms that can facilitate the development of full-fledged market institutions or lead to a protracted crisis that would jeopardize almost 30-year long market economy transition progress. As it is rather unclear where the recovery pendulum will make its final swing, the current situation provides fruitful soil for various assumptions. This paper proposes and examines four scenarios of economic response strategies for the region as a whole, and for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, that result in unique development trajectories. The paper employs the foresight methodology to build four scenarios related to the situation after the lockdown is fully lifted. The scenarios serve the purpose of helping decision makers to embark on informed decisions while shaping anti-crisis measures and better understand causality mechanisms behind their policy choices. Scenario 1 (Protectionist Autarky): Stability upheld, limited reforms, increased role of the state and protectionism. Scenario 2 (Impactful Diversification): Increased social support, augmented role of the private sector, comprehensive diversification and enhanced regionalization. Scenario 3 (Inertial Asymmetry): Selective support measures, inequality-conducive, restricted diversification and limited reforms, “business-as-usual” commodity market, growing regionalization. Scenario 4 (Unleashed Bazaar): Major institutional reforms, FDI-oriented economic openness, leapfrogging from stagnant to advanced emerging markets.
Has the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, changed the perception of Chin... more Has the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, changed the perception of China among local actors in Central Asia? There are numerous internal problems and contradictions among the Central Asian countries and the region remains one of the least integrated in the world. This poses serious challenges to BRI but also offers opportunities for enhancing regional connectivity and integration. Although there has been some research and even more media coverage of BRI, little is known about how Central Asians perceive BRI. This chapter fills some of these gaps and analyzes the present state of relations between the Central Asian countries and China and collects and systematizes perceptions of Beijing and BRI among Central Asian stakeholders. The analysis focuses on economic cooperation, infrastructure and educational initiatives, as they as they are among BRI's main pillars. The main conclusion is that current attitudes towards China have been formed within the framework of bilateral relations that started in 1991, and there has so far been no major shift in the perception of China in Central Asia since BRI was launched. Whereas the broader public expects more economic opportunities from BRI and there has been more discussion of China's role in Central Asia after 2013, local communities remain uninformed and weakly connected to the high-level interaction between the Chinese and Central Asian governments.
This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. D... more This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. Data on the production, consumption, export and import of coal, natural gas and oil are summarised for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. While promoting renewable energy, Central Asia continues to rely on and expand the use of coal, natural gas and oil with no major phase-out plans yet on the horizon.
Stokke, K., Vakulchuk, R. and Øverland, I. (2017). Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis. Oslo: Norwegian Institute for Foreign Affairs, NUPI. Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (98 pp.).
Uploads
Papers by Roman Vakulchuk