Alliance for Global Sustainability Bookseries, 2002
... For example, in India lighting accounts for half of energy use and space conditioning and ref... more ... For example, in India lighting accounts for half of energy use and space conditioning and refrigeration account for an additional 40 percent ... Because of the inclusive way that commercialgreen buildings are designed, the high indoor air quality of green buildings, and employees ...
Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO... more Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.
International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Vol. 11, Nos 3/4,, 2011
This paper considers the influence of uncertainty with respect to GDP and population—both total a... more This paper considers the influence of uncertainty with respect to GDP and population—both total and age structure—on long-run environmental impact projections. The paper takes as its starting point a simple, transparent, published model that is based on the stochastic version of the IPAT equation [Liddle, B. (201l) ‘Consumption-driven environmental impact and age-structure change in OECD countries: A cointegration-STIRPAT analysis’. Demographic Research, Vol. 24, pp. 749-770.]. That model is used to generate projections—for the OECD as a whole—of two environmental impacts for which population has a demonstrated influence—carbon emissions from transport and residential electricity consumption. The paper examines the sensitivity of those long-run (i.e., to 2050) projections to uncertainty regarding possible future GDP and population growth/change. The Energy Information Agency’s reference, high, and low GDP cases are combined with the United Nations medium, high, and low population variants to create nine different “scenarios.” Two particularly interesting results are demonstrated: (i) if the medium path for either population or GDP is to be believed/trusted, then uncertainty with respect to the growth/change of the other factor is unimportant; and (ii) uncertainty with respect to population projections has a greater effect on the environmental impact projections than does uncertainty with respect to GDP projections—despite that the degree of uncertainty associated with population is smaller than the uncertainty associated with aggregate economic growth. That second, perhaps surprising, finding was driven by the environmental impact projection models’ inclusion of population age structure’s effect and the expectation of aging underlying the population assumptions/projections.
This paper bridges two related, but up to now, unconnected literatures: economic growth stability... more This paper bridges two related, but up to now, unconnected literatures: economic growth stability and population-economic growth. The paper differs from previous population-economic growth analyses by focusing on instability of economic growth in developing countries. This study contributes to a previous paper on the developing country growth collapse by adding important demographic variables. The paper provides an explanation for “new” negative correlations of population and economic growth: because 1960s were a relatively smooth time for economic growth, youth dependency did not seem important; however, during turbulent 1970s and 1980s, countries with falling dependency burdens weathered economic shocks better.
Many international organizations have called for an increased usage of renewable energy as a mean... more Many international organizations have called for an increased usage of renewable energy as a means to reduce CO2 emissions and address climate change. This paper uses a large panel data set of 117 countries and recently developed panel estimation techniques to answer the question by how much does increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in electricity generation reduce the subsequent carbon dioxide emissions. For the full sample, we find long-run displacement elasticities of approximately -0.75, indicating that a one percent increase in non-fossil fuel electricity generation reduces CO2 emissions per capita from electricity generation by about 0.75%. Long-run displacement elasticities for non-OECD (OECD) countries are approximately -0.90 (-0.60). These results have a number of policy implications.
Alliance for Global Sustainability Bookseries, 2002
... For example, in India lighting accounts for half of energy use and space conditioning and ref... more ... For example, in India lighting accounts for half of energy use and space conditioning and refrigeration account for an additional 40 percent ... Because of the inclusive way that commercialgreen buildings are designed, the high indoor air quality of green buildings, and employees ...
Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO... more Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.
International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Vol. 11, Nos 3/4,, 2011
This paper considers the influence of uncertainty with respect to GDP and population—both total a... more This paper considers the influence of uncertainty with respect to GDP and population—both total and age structure—on long-run environmental impact projections. The paper takes as its starting point a simple, transparent, published model that is based on the stochastic version of the IPAT equation [Liddle, B. (201l) ‘Consumption-driven environmental impact and age-structure change in OECD countries: A cointegration-STIRPAT analysis’. Demographic Research, Vol. 24, pp. 749-770.]. That model is used to generate projections—for the OECD as a whole—of two environmental impacts for which population has a demonstrated influence—carbon emissions from transport and residential electricity consumption. The paper examines the sensitivity of those long-run (i.e., to 2050) projections to uncertainty regarding possible future GDP and population growth/change. The Energy Information Agency’s reference, high, and low GDP cases are combined with the United Nations medium, high, and low population variants to create nine different “scenarios.” Two particularly interesting results are demonstrated: (i) if the medium path for either population or GDP is to be believed/trusted, then uncertainty with respect to the growth/change of the other factor is unimportant; and (ii) uncertainty with respect to population projections has a greater effect on the environmental impact projections than does uncertainty with respect to GDP projections—despite that the degree of uncertainty associated with population is smaller than the uncertainty associated with aggregate economic growth. That second, perhaps surprising, finding was driven by the environmental impact projection models’ inclusion of population age structure’s effect and the expectation of aging underlying the population assumptions/projections.
This paper bridges two related, but up to now, unconnected literatures: economic growth stability... more This paper bridges two related, but up to now, unconnected literatures: economic growth stability and population-economic growth. The paper differs from previous population-economic growth analyses by focusing on instability of economic growth in developing countries. This study contributes to a previous paper on the developing country growth collapse by adding important demographic variables. The paper provides an explanation for “new” negative correlations of population and economic growth: because 1960s were a relatively smooth time for economic growth, youth dependency did not seem important; however, during turbulent 1970s and 1980s, countries with falling dependency burdens weathered economic shocks better.
Many international organizations have called for an increased usage of renewable energy as a mean... more Many international organizations have called for an increased usage of renewable energy as a means to reduce CO2 emissions and address climate change. This paper uses a large panel data set of 117 countries and recently developed panel estimation techniques to answer the question by how much does increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in electricity generation reduce the subsequent carbon dioxide emissions. For the full sample, we find long-run displacement elasticities of approximately -0.75, indicating that a one percent increase in non-fossil fuel electricity generation reduces CO2 emissions per capita from electricity generation by about 0.75%. Long-run displacement elasticities for non-OECD (OECD) countries are approximately -0.90 (-0.60). These results have a number of policy implications.
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Papers by Brantley Liddle